Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 9:44 AM, cladking said:

This is irrelevant.  It matter only how much demand there is for some specific coin and this tends to be proportional to the number of collectors.  

There are exploding numbers of collectors today but they are not behaving like  established collectors in 1964.  They are more like the kids who were collecting from circulation (clads) and new coins (states quarters etc).  

I don't expect anything except all trends to eventually return to equilibrium; to normal.  Obviously like swinging pendulums I do not expect them to stay there.  

I expect most rare coins to eventually have premiums.  

I'm referring to US coins. 

Historically US coins have always had the highest demand in the world.  

So people call clad debased garbage that are like Chuck-ee-Cheeze tokens and that are more common than grains of sands on the beach in every grade because they just like the coins and don't want competition collecting them all!!!  \

You can't imagine the level of hatred for these coins in 1965 and they killed coin collecting and replaced every coin in circulation with coins that each looked alike.  It was so bad that by 1995 after decades of gaining new collectors the hobby nearly died almost altogether.  It nearly came to look like you believe it should with a few gentleman collectors in their study looking at financially significant coins.  

I believe coin collecting is the greatest hobby in the world because it is so broad and so diverse.  I lover seeing newer collectors who are more diverse and spanning every spectrum of humanity including sexes, nationalities, races, religions, and ages.  Except for high grade rarities almost everyone can collect any coins they choose. The only limitation is how much work they're willing to do and now days with the net they have far more access to far more coins.  

 

I kinda understand why someone MIGHT want to "draw a line under" 1964. Some people don't want ANYTHING not a precious metal. Hey, it's not MY trick, but I at least understand it. What I will NEVER understand is why collectors "end" their nickel collections at 1964. I've known quite a few who have. Hey,.. guys,.. the nickel's composition DID NOT CHANGE! What's with the 1964 line, anyway? Maybe it'll change to Stainless Steel some year soon. But it hasn't yet.

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 9:44 AM, cladking said:

with the net they have far more access to far more coins

But for me, my preferences, that comes with FAAAAAAR more hassles than I want to deal with, and getting more by the week. I'd rather crawl in the ol' Explorer, or the ol' GLC300, and drive 700 miles to a coin show in Orlando, or Pittsburgh, or Rosemont, or Oklahoma City. Flying is even too much of a hassle. All those cities are an 11 hour drive, and darn it, I'm driving to them. Planes are for overseas, and I'm driving 700 miles to Lancaster, PA, and then by train to Newark, to fly into Paris, then by train AGAIN to Edinburgh, Inverness, London, before flying to Dublin, then "home" to Newark again. (Flights out of the southeast to Europe are just sick expensive.)

Edited July 19, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:08 AM, VKurtB said:

I've known quite a few who have. Hey,.. guys,.. the nickel's composition DID NOT CHANGE! What's with the 1964 line, anyway? Maybe it'll change to Stainless Steel some year soon. But it hasn't yet.

It's the same with the cent.  More cent collections end at 1964 than at 1959.  

I hated clad as much as anyone in 1965.  In fact my hatred grew over the years until I began collecting them in 1972.  They got more interesting every year as new dates and varieties appeared and the older coins started showing wear.  I saw an article in the Chicago Tribune in 1972 that said the mint and Fed were going to start rotating their coin stocks with those in storage the longest to be the first to be issued. It stood to reason every date would begin wearing out evenly so I wanted nice pristine specimens of every date and each variety. 

I always expected a stampede into these coins as collectors realized what was going on but it just never happened.  Now virtually every single old quarter is worn out and more than half are gone forever through misadventure and still no stampede has materialized.  For years I thought is was because of the existence of mint sets but they are almost all gone now and most of the survivors are corroded.  

Obviously the hobby is NOTHING like it was in 1964 and this is why so many coins that were popular or expensive in the '60's and early '70's are like shooting stars; they light up the firmament briefly and crash into the ground.  

People scour change looking for old nickels many of which can be found in high grade and ignore things like a '71 nickel that can't be found in high grade and is scarcer than a '50-D in coin shops.  These are disappearing from circulation so fast that even if all the nickels aren't withdrawn and melted they will be absolutely scarer than the '50-D in 15 years.  

 

[cladking]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:17 AM, VKurtB said:

But for me, my preferences, that comes with FAAAAAAR more hassles than I want to deal with, and getting more by the week.

I've always preferred to see coins before I buy them.  No matter how "fungible" a coin seems often there is something wrong when you get it in hand.  It's very difficult to sell coins and it's far more difficult with problem coins. 

[zadok]

On 7/19/2023 at 11:31 AM, cladking said:

It's the same with the cent.  More cent collections end at 1964 than at 1959.  

I hated clad as much as anyone in 1965.  In fact my hatred grew over the years until I began collecting them in 1972.  They got more interesting every year as new dates and varieties appeared and the older coins started showing wear.  I saw an article in the Chicago Tribune in 1972 that said the mint and Fed were going to start rotating their coin stocks with those in storage the longest to be the first to be issued. It stood to reason every date would begin wearing out evenly so I wanted nice pristine specimens of every date and each variety. 

I always expected a stampede into these coins as collectors realized what was going on but it just never happened.  Now virtually every single old quarter is worn out and more than half are gone forever through misadventure and still no stampede has materialized.  For years I thought is was because of the existence of mint sets but they are almost all gone now and most of the survivors are corroded.  

Obviously the hobby is NOTHING like it was in 1964 and this is why so many coins that were popular or expensive in the '60's and early '70's are like shooting stars; they light up the firmament briefly and crash into the ground.  

People scour change looking for old nickels many of which can be found in high grade and ignore things like a '71 nickel that can't be found in high grade and is scarcer than a '50-D in coin shops.  These are disappearing from circulation so fast that even if all the nickels aren't withdrawn and melted they will be absolutely scarer than the '50-D in 15 years.  

 

...its really very basic, simply supply n demand...more surplus coins than collectors regardless of the grade rarity n a general lack of interest...i seriously doubt that the modern clads will ever generate enuf collector interest to recover the cost of certification n grading...one could have a complete set of clads with all the coins top pop n it would barely cause a stir in todays market...it would be like having the number 1 registry sets in susan b anthonys or the presidential dollars, no one cares...it would be interesting to know the volume of sales on the whitman n dansco clad album sales...is Hansen even attemping to add clads to his set, curious to know....

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 2:08 PM, zadok said:

...its really very basic, simply supply n demand...more surplus coins than collectors regardless of the grade rarity n a general lack of interest...i seriously doubt that the modern clads will ever generate enuf collector interest to recover the cost of certification n grading...one could have a complete set of clads with all the coins top pop n it would barely cause a stir in todays market...it would be like having the number 1 registry sets in susan b anthonys or the presidential dollars, no one cares...it would be interesting to know the volume of sales on the whitman n dansco clad album sales...is Hansen even attemping to add clads to his set, curious to know....

I recognize MOST collectors don't care about clad series, but I do. I keep all current series up to date with superior coins cut from Uncirculated Sets and Proof Sets. Some pieces are tougher, such as P and D Innovation dollars; finding truly prime examples of those takes some digging. Only available in rolls. 

[cladking]

On 7/19/2023 at 2:08 PM, zadok said:

...its really very basic, simply supply n demand...more surplus coins than collectors regardless of the grade rarity n a general lack of interest...i seriously doubt that the modern clads will ever generate enuf collector interest to recover the cost of certification n grading...one could have a complete set of clads with all the coins top pop n it would barely cause a stir in todays market...it would be like having the number 1 registry sets in susan b anthonys or the presidential dollars, no one cares...it would be interesting to know the volume of sales on the whitman n dansco clad album sales...is Hansen even attemping to add clads to his set, curious to know....

Obviously you're right that there is very little interest and it's entirely within the realm of possibility there will never be interest.  

But I'm guessing the interest will develop. I've been watching it expand since about 1980 and I can see the effects of those collecting from circulation for the last quarter century begin accumulating on the pocket change.  Scarce dates and high grades are disappearing disproportionately to common dates and grades.  Every year I see new road signs suggesting where we are headed.  Soon we'll see lots of younger collectors buying their first coins because so many coins in circulation are almost gone and too hard to find.  These will be very inexpensive coins but these will each be watershed events.  

There are only a few thousand advanced collectors right now but there are hundreds of thousands of beginners.  Advanced collectors run the gamut of age ranges from very young to very old so their collections will dribble onto the markets for decades and decades but beginning collectors are almost all young and their demand will only grow.  

You can't buck trends and demographics.  

[zadok]

On 7/20/2023 at 10:08 AM, cladking said:

Obviously you're right that there is very little interest and it's entirely within the realm of possibility there will never be interest.  

But I'm guessing the interest will develop. I've been watching it expand since about 1980 and I can see the effects of those collecting from circulation for the last quarter century begin accumulating on the pocket change.  Scarce dates and high grades are disappearing disproportionately to common dates and grades.  Every year I see new road signs suggesting where we are headed.  Soon we'll see lots of younger collectors buying their first coins because so many coins in circulation are almost gone and too hard to find.  These will be very inexpensive coins but these will each be watershed events.  

There are only a few thousand advanced collectors right now but there are hundreds of thousands of beginners.  Advanced collectors run the gamut of age ranges from very young to very old so their collections will dribble onto the markets for decades and decades but beginning collectors are almost all young and their demand will only grow.  

You can't buck trends and demographics.  

...im afraid theres too much kool-aid in ur expectations...only time will tell however....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/20/2023 at 10:08 AM, cladking said:

There are only a few thousand advanced collectors right now but there are hundreds of thousands of beginners.  Advanced collectors run the gamut of age ranges from very young to very old so their collections will dribble onto the markets for decades and decades but beginning collectors are almost all young and their demand will only grow.  You can't buck trends and demographics.  

I think there are lots more than "a few thousand" advanced collectors -- I think the Baby Boomers and the generation before them is why prices were in  the toilet for 2010-2020.  Too many sellers...not enough buyers.  How many people wanted to unload Liberty Seated or Walking sets or Franklin Halfs -- and how many were starting to collect them ?  Total imbalance, IMO.

I hope you are right on demographics (again, hate to sound like a broken record, but the trade groups and professional associations should have the data on this) and no doubt Covid and the Internet have spiked interest in our little niche.  We'll see if it has staying power.

If it has...then a rising tide should lift ALL boats and we should see some substantial new collectors for both Saints and Morgans and rising prices there for more common coins let alone scarce and rare ones, too.  Heck, the country has 1/3rd more population today than in 1980 so there's that alone. 

We'll have to let the market tell us.  Dealers should be able to give us indications of interest and traffic to their websites and B&M stores, too. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/20/2023 at 9:58 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Too many sellers...not enough buyers.

Yup. When "everybody" thinks they are a vest pocket dealer, there are waaaaaaay too many vest pocket dealers. Doing it will only be worth it when "everybody" decides it's NOT worth doing. That's the way economics works, goys n' birls. What professions are lucrative? Only those which erect barriers to entry.

Edited July 20, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/20/2023 at 4:18 PM, VKurtB said:

 What professions are lucrative? Only those which erect barriers to entry.

I wanted to be an NBA center and pull down $35,000,000 a year but they said I was missing 18 inches of height, dribbling and shooting skills, etc.

Damn barriers to entry......

Edited July 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/20/2023 at 5:10 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wanted to be an NBC center and pull down $35,000,000 a year but they said I was missing 18 inches of height, dribbling and shooting skills, etc.

Damn barriers to entry......

... financial advisors...

Look, I'm 37-2 in ballot removal legal cases in my career. But I am not an attorney so I cannot represent clients. So I "practice" pro se when I can achieve standing. The other side always has a lawyer, and I beat them ALMOST every time. Ii also TEACH Election Law at Continuing Legal Education Credit seminars. Oh well.

Edited July 20, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/20/2023 at 9:08 AM, cladking said:

You can't buck trends and demographics.  

One of the trends here is the disappearance of mint sets.  There are no other sources for most of these coins and now the mint sets are nearly all gone and those that survive are often tarnished.  

This isn't going to reverse itself.  As demand grows more people will be forced to pay retail prices for moderns.  This is why retail markets are booming and it will become far more dramatic as the sets continue to disappear.   

 

People imagine vast overhangs of typical coins and Gems sitting in storage but they don't exist.  The only overhang is mint sets.  Those who don't know the mint sets can be cleaned or don't know how to clean them pay retail.  This situation is not sustainable.  

[cladking]

On 7/20/2023 at 9:58 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think there are lots more than "a few thousand" advanced collectors --

I meant there are only a few thousand advanced collectors of moderns.  

 

Most modern collectors are beginners or intermediate.  ...Many many thousands of them.  Millions counting states quarter collectors.  

[VKurtB]

On 7/20/2023 at 5:13 PM, cladking said:

There are no other sources for most of these coins and now the mint sets are nearly all gone and those that survive are often tarnished.  

Correct, if a tiny bit overstated.

[zadok]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:10 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wanted to be an NBA center and pull down $35,000,000 a year but they said I was missing 18 inches of height, dribbling and shooting skills, etc.

Damn barriers to entry......

...i too strived(strove?) for lucrative self advancement, put out my shingle as "Dr of Nuclear Enhancement" but damn they insisted on seeing my medical degree n my AEC certification....

[cladking]

On 7/20/2023 at 5:16 PM, VKurtB said:

Correct, if a tiny bit overstated.

Yes!  It's intentionally overstated but it is not misleading.  There are many dates of cents and nickels that exist in rolls and bags (not all of them) and there are a few Ikes and half dollars but very few dimes and quarters were set aside and for some dates it is virtually none.  In most cases the number set aside pales in comparison to mint set mintage.  Even though there are tens of millions of moderns set aside in rolls and bags this doesn't affect the availability of 1969 dimes or 1983 quarters which were not set aside.  

Even among those coins that were saved in some cases the vast majority are no longer 'collectible" because they are tarnished or severely corroded.  Just like morgans or bust half dollars availability is on a date by date basis.  

 

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by cladking

[VKurtB]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:04 PM, cladking said:

Yes!  It's intentionally overstated but it is not misleading.  There are many dates of cents and nickels that exist in rolls and bags (not all of them) and there are a few Ikes and half dollars but very few dimes and quarters were set aside and for some dates it is virtually none.  In most cases the number set aside pales in comparison to mint set mintage.  Even though there are tens of millions of moderns set aside in rolls and bags this doesn't affect the availability of 1969 dimes or 1983 quarters which were not set aside.  

Even among those coins that were saved in some cases the vast majority are no longer 'collectible" because they are tarnished or severely corroded.  Just like morgans or bust half dollars availability is on a date to date basis.  

 

 

I get the 1983 quarters, but what's the deal on 1969 dimes? By the way, I don't know how many shows you attend but I attend a lot, and roll sellers of several denomination are not tough to find.

[cladking]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:07 PM, VKurtB said:

I get the 1983 quarters, but what's the deal on 1969 dimes? By the way, I don't know how many shows you attend but I attend a lot, and roll sellers of several denomination are not tough to find.

No rolls were saved for these coins.  Not literally, of course, but probably fewer than a quarter million '69 dimes were saved in addition to the mint sets.  Quality was just awful so finding nice ones to save was difficult.  Most of these coins were released back into circulation when the owners discovered nice specimens could be found in the sets.  But here's the rub, only about 35% of mint set coins were nice attractive BU and most were poorly struck and heavily marked.  These coins were widely distributed in lots of five sets which was the order limit.  You couldn't accumulate nice attractive coins easily.  

Then over the years there was almost nobody trying to find these coins.  Most of them were just spent regardless of quality when the sets were dismantled to get the half dollar.  Probably nearly 70% of this date is just gone now and most of the dimes were put into circulation.  The remaining '69 dimes are picked over only slightly but most all of them are tarnished now.  This applies to many of the rolls of dimes as well.   Nice chBU '69 dimes are available only because so few people care.  It's getting very difficult to find these in circulation as well since they were designed to last only 30 years and it's been over half a century.  When one is found it is typically a cull and in only VG condition.  

Gems for this date were scarce in 1969 and they are far carcer today.  Some might say it doesn't matter and conditionally rare coins are a contrived metric but with moderns even chBU coins usually have significant strike and die problems.  They are often poorly centered and even have distracting planchet marking.  Many people collect moderns in Gem or near gem condition.  Only a few thousand of these exist in retail friendly chBU condition.  Another 20 or 30 thousand can be retrieved from mint sets and cleaned but the numbers are far too low to support any kind of mass market.  The unavailability of things like '69 dimes will put more pressure on the supply of 1969 mint sets which, again, are the sole source of most of the coinage for the date.  

I believe the increasing difficulty of obtaining retail friendly older mint sets is driving the burgeoning retail markets in older clads.  Even if success didn't breed success in collectibles markets this is still ideal conditions for explosive price increases.  At some point a sort of critical mass will be achieved where the flow of mint sets onto the market is insufficient to satisfy either the mint set market or the market for the coins in them.  Where coins have always historically flowed onto the market from old collections and hoards there are no old hoards of mint sets, no old collections, and most accumulations of things like '69 dimes are simply insignificant.  

[J P M]

On 7/20/2023 at 8:26 PM, cladking said:

No rolls were saved for these coins.  Not literally, of course, but probably fewer than a quarter million '69 dimes were saved in addition to the mint sets.  Quality was just awful so finding nice ones to save was difficult.  Most of these coins were released back into circulation when the owners discovered nice specimens could be found in the sets.  But here's the rub, only about 35% of mint set coins were nice attractive BU and most were poorly struck and heavily marked.  These coins were widely distributed in lots of five sets which was the order limit.  You couldn't accumulate nice attractive coins easily.  

Then over the years there was almost nobody trying to find these coins.  Most of them were just spent regardless of quality when the sets were dismantled to get the half dollar.  Probably nearly 70% of this date is just gone now and most of the dimes were put into circulation.  The remaining '69 dimes are picked over only slightly but most all of them are tarnished now.  This applies to many of the rolls of dimes as well.   Nice chBU '69 dimes are available only because so few people care.  It's getting very difficult to find these in circulation as well since they were designed to last only 30 years and it's been over half a century.  When one is found it is typically a cull and in only VG condition.  

Gems for this date were scarce in 1969 and they are far carcer today.  Some might say it doesn't matter and conditionally rare coins are a contrived metric but with moderns even chBU coins usually have significant strike and die problems.  They are often poorly centered and even have distracting planchet marking.  Many people collect moderns in Gem or near gem condition.  Only a few thousand of these exist in retail friendly chBU condition.  Another 20 or 30 thousand can be retrieved from mint sets and cleaned but the numbers are far too low to support any kind of mass market.  The unavailability of things like '69 dimes will put more pressure on the supply of 1969 mint sets which, again, are the sole source of most of the coinage for the date.  

I believe the increasing difficulty of obtaining retail friendly older mint sets is driving the burgeoning retail markets in older clads.  Even if success didn't breed success in collectibles markets this is still ideal conditions for explosive price increases.  At some point a sort of critical mass will be achieved where the flow of mint sets onto the market is insufficient to satisfy either the mint set market or the market for the coins in them.  Where coins have always historically flowed onto the market from old collections and hoards there are no old hoards of mint sets, no old collections, and most accumulations of things like '69 dimes are simply insignificant.  

I have a few older mint and proof sets and they are still worth.... not much. I just don't think they will gain in my lifetime. Or what's left of it. I do have to say that I do not see as many proof sets in shops any more.

[VKurtB]

On 7/20/2023 at 7:48 PM, J P M said:

I have a few older mint and proof sets and they are still worth.... not much. I just don't think they will gain in my lifetime. Or what's left of it. I do have to say that I do not see as many proof sets in shops any more.

If you’d like to will them here, my address is available. 

[cladking]

On 7/20/2023 at 7:48 PM, J P M said:

I have a few older mint and proof sets and they are still worth.... not much. I just don't think they will gain in my lifetime. Or what's left of it. I do have to say that I do not see as many proof sets in shops any more.

All of the older sets have doubled, tripled, or quadrupled during the time that retail sales have been so strong (starting in ~2020).  From these low levels most people consider the increases insubstantial but i consider them virtually "explosive" because I see the market much differently.  I see the increase of the premium to face value.  This is because the typical set has only 7 or 8 nice coins in them with a face value around $1.75 

Other coins in the sets are impossible to clean or very difficult to sell due to their poor quality. The old price for these 7 or 8 nice coins totaling $1.75 was about $2.00 so their was a mere 25c premium to face value.  Now the average premium to face/ silver value is about $7 which is a 28 fold increase.  I've never really cared about the substandard coins because I find them ugly and I doubt collectors will want them.  I'd far rather have a nice chXF old clad than a poorly made ugly MS-62.  

The increases haven't hit the wholesale markets for all of the coins in them but it has certainly hit the market for Ikes and half dollars.  Most Ikes have been selling for $70 to $90 per roll wholesale.  Sets are disappearing to fill this supply and even today most of the other coins go into circulation because the market is this.  I keep asking where are the other coins going to come from when the few mint sets left are earmarked for the retail market?  Attrition on the mint sets has always been just staggering and it is to be assumed that all this increased interest is destroying a larger percentage of available sets than ever before.  In the past sets just languished and waited to be destroyed  but now there is demand for both nice sets and many of their component parts.  

Of course these have always been a losing proposition and it's gone on so long that ,mint and proof sets are simply regarded by the entire established market to be long term losers.  I think we are rapidly approaching "the long term" and these old saws about lousy buys will go the way of the horse and buggy. 

[cladking]

On 7/21/2023 at 11:59 AM, cladking said:

I think we are rapidly approaching "the long term" and these old saws about lousy buys will go the way of the horse and buggy. 

This is not to say that mint and proof sets are a good "investment". Not only are no coins good investments but the mint sets really should be cut up and the nicer coins cleaned in acetone to prevent permanent damage.  Of course nice older mint sets in ten years might be worth a fortune but nobody will want dark corroded coins and they'll all turn dark eventually.  Of course it's entirely possible the scarcest coins in these sets will not have a market even in the foreseeable  future. But I'm still betting that when people discover that the sets are gone and there's no source for things like '69 dimes there will be a lot of price pressure on the very few available.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:16 PM, cladking said:

I meant there are only a few thousand advanced collectors of moderns.  Most modern collectors are beginners or intermediate.  ...Many many thousands of them.  Millions counting states quarter collectors.  

OK, I get it.  But I would go somewhere in between thousands of "advanced" and millions of State Quarter kid collectors.

Based on the demand for new Mint specialities like the V-privy coins and the 2019-S Enhanced ASE, I would say there are at least TENS of thousands of intermediate/advanced collectors of moderns, maybe even hundreds of thousands. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Another important indicator of coin collector interest or at least general Type Collecing.......the admittedly high (said here numerous times ) price of an MCMVII High Relief Saint....there's 8,000 of these coins available but as I've been told repeatedly here, they sell at a relatively high price for one that is readily available.

But that demand is almost all certainly from coin collectors, if not strictly Saint or DE collectors.  I doubt artistic non-coin collectors are tracking the price and supply availability of High Reliefs.  As with special modern new Mint offerings, if you create something worth buying, they will come.  Whether modern ASEs or classic High Reliefs.

[cladking]

On 7/21/2023 at 7:51 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

OK, I get it.  But I would go somewhere in between thousands of "advanced" and millions of State Quarter kid collectors.

Based on the demand for new Mint specialities like the V-privy coins and the 2019-S Enhanced ASE, I would say there are at least TENS of thousands of intermediate/advanced collectors of moderns, maybe even hundreds of thousands. 

You're right of course, if you're talking about everyone who collects and US coins made after 1964.  I tend to define the term as anyone collecting any circulating series that began in 1965.  I should have said "clad quarter or dime collectors" rather than "modern collectors".  

In the '60's millions and millions collected cents and nickels from circulation setting up the conditions that have led to the crash in many coin prices.  Today there are very few collectors of base metal coins from circulation other than states coins and beginners.  

 

There has been enough interest in moderns to create a few "fallen stars" like the '73-S PR silver Ike.  This got up to a few hundred dollars in today's money and now it's around $20.  

But this coin is silver and far higher denomination than what was collected in 1964.  Part of the allure was that it was very low mintage compared to any modern previously and collectors believed it would always be king of moderns.  

[ldhair]

The 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle is an interesting coin. It came free with the gold proof set. I believe the issue price was $999. The price of the set went to almost 10K but dropped like a rock. Later it went back up with the price of gold.  

Many of the Silver Eagles were broke out of the sets and graded. The price on these went crazy for some time but later fell to about half price. Those that bought the set from the mint had the chance to make a nice profit and still do but not as much. Just the gold is worth about $3600 today. I chose to keep my set together. If I had sold it I would always be wanting to replace the Silver Eagle. 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/22/2023 at 10:07 AM, ldhair said:

The 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle is an interesting coin. It came free with the gold proof set. I believe the issue price was $999. The price of the set went to almost 10K but dropped like a rock. Later it went back up with the price of gold.  

When did it go up to $10,000 ?  Was that after 2000 when the gold price went up and everybody realized they needed the 1995-W if they wanted a complete set of ASEs ?

I believe a top 1995-W (DMPL, PF70, etc.) went for $86,000 like a decade ago or so.  Price came down alot.....I think you can get 69's and 70's for $5,000 give-or-take today.  I'll let an ASE expert chime in. 

[World Colonial]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:21 AM, cladking said:

No.  The '60's were not normal.  There were far too many collectors collecting far to many recent dates in too high condition and in too large of numbers. This is why there are so many "fallen stars" of the era.

I do think the number of older established collectors and what most of them were collecting was "normal" and I might be wrong here but Mehl popularized coins decades earlier. They were mostly collecting old US coins by date and mint.  

Today old coins from the '60'ds and '70's is hated.  This is not normal.

 

Disagreeing with you is not hating anything.  That's the entire basis of your claims.  No one has to buy what you think they should or pay the prices you think it should be worth.  If every collector disagrees with you, there is absolutely nothing unusual about it.

You can't claim collectors aren't collecting this coinage because it's not true.  So, since you can't, your objection is on the price.

You have an astronomically inflated opinion of this coinage where you compare it to the most common and overpriced coinage for its availability (1916-1964 US coinage) and then when it's not similarly inflated, claim it's "hated" and not "natural".  It's as if no other coinage exists.  

Even worse, you compare US moderns to 1916-1964 key and semi-key dates.  You did it with the 1950-D nickel here and to the 1916-D dime in the Swiss "moderns" thread.  The 50-D nickel price was a bubble.  There is no reason to expect the same outcome.  The 16-D dime primarily sells for its price due to historical misperception of scarcity.  No one is going to believe any US modern as a generic coin is scarce except under contrived US standards because they know it isn't.

Your entire chain of reasoning is nonsensical.

[World Colonial]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:44 AM, cladking said:

This is irrelevant.  It matter only how much demand there is for some specific coin and this tends to be proportional to the number of collectors.  

There are exploding numbers of collectors today but they are not behaving like  established collectors in 1964.  They are more like the kids who were collecting from circulation (clads) and new coins (states quarters etc). 

The vast majority of collectors in the 60's were collecting at FV or insignificant premiums.  There weren't that many valuable collections of common US classics in the 60's as you have repeatedly implied.

I already gave you some of the similarities and differences between the 60's and now which are facts.  You just don't like the outcome.

On 7/19/2023 at 10:44 AM, cladking said:

I don't expect anything except all trends to eventually return to equilibrium; to normal.  Obviously like swinging pendulums I do not expect them to stay there.  

There is no such thing as "equilibrium" or "return to the mean" in coin collecting.  It's something else you just "made up."

Collectors never did prefer their circulating change, the actual substance of your demographic claim.

On 7/19/2023 at 10:44 AM, cladking said:

I expect most rare coins to eventually have premiums.  

What rare coins?  

Those with your strike quality which virtually no one cares about and for which you won't even pay any meaningful premium yourself?

Numismatic minutia reflected in US practiced specializations which have essentially zero correlation to actual collector preferences?

Common coins you call "scarce"?

There is a difference between premiums and your prior inferences.  Do you remember your price projections on PCGS in the "Raw Moderns" thread?  Is that what you expect?

On 7/19/2023 at 10:44 AM, cladking said:

I'm referring to US coins. 

Historically US coins have always had the highest demand in the world. 

US moderns have the lowest collective aggregate preference among US coinage.  I stated it and it's accurate.  It's due to the coin attributes, not for any reason you give.

US moderns have more demand collectively than the vast majority of world classics from any other country right now.  Same when comparing one US modern series to another world coin "classic" series.  Nothing unusual now about this either.  The prices are lower for obvious reasons, but that's something else entirely.