Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:22 PM, cladking said:

If someone buys an expensive album to house common coins like silver roosevelts odds are he's not going to fill it with low grades and culls.

If it’s a kid getting it as a gift he might. One of the coolest Danscos I ever saw was at Red Rose Coin Club. Barber halves, complete, nothing below VF. Breathtaking. The lady worked that collection LOCALLY for over 35 years. No internet. No big shows. Just the local shows and auctions. THAT is what the local  Lancaster County, PA coin scene is like - an embarrassment of riches. Green Dragon Farmers Market has a coin auction EVERY Friday, and usually 4 dealers in coins among the market tables each week. Right next to the Chow-chow, Shoo-fly pies and Apple Butter. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

It’s a demographic miracle. Every collector gets a day older every day, but the body of collectors never ages. Just like the body of registered voters, since Motor Voter. People die. People add in. It’s the Circle of Life. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:30 PM, zadok said:

...all u really have to do is go to any large coin show e.g. FUN n walk the floor n look at the dealers inventories on display...virtually no moderns n even less clads n if u want to really check out the prevailing winds try selling the dealers bank rolls of either....

I went to FUN 2020 and saw plenty of modern coins and commemoratives.  Out of let's call it 300 dealers, I'd say 20% had some kind of modern coin or commemorative from recent decades.

I'd call it somewhat less numerous than Morgan dealers, but more than Saint dealers.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/23/2023 at 5:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Most towns that HAD coin clubs still do. New ones are springing up all over. Lancaster PA has the Red Rose Club with ~200 members, average attendance of 70-80 and meet twice a month. This in a town of 50,000. Gadsden, Alabama has the Gadsden/Rainbow City Coin Club with between 150-200 members who meet WEEKLY. Average attendance around 60. The newest one near me is the Madison County Coin Club in Huntsville, AL. They have a smaller average attendance but more serious collectors. COVID ALMOST killed the Madison County Club but it has hung in. COVID did seem to kill off about 50 clubs nationwide. We BELIEVE most of those were clubs dependent on one strong personality who didn’t survive the pandemic. 

What can you do weekly in these meetings ?  I mean, what changes week-to-week ?  Monthly meetings I guess make sense, but weekly ?

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:41 PM, cladking said:

Up until 1995 kids and older people entering the hobby were told moderns are garbage.  This really isn't much different than your message either but now every new collector doesn't get "the talk" the first time they encounter established collectors.  That moderns are common junk that can never hve any value is obviously misinformation. 

"Shooting the messenger" because I contradict your exaggerated claims.

I've never either stated or implied that US moderns or world "moderns" are junk.  You're reading this into my posts because the facts and reasoning I provide contradict you.

If collectors believe anything like your claims, there is no time like the present for anyone to stop believing it.

On 7/23/2023 at 4:41 PM, cladking said:

That you believe these coins will be worth face value in the future as you've already said and verified in this thread is wholly irrelevant to whether or not modern coins are collectible.  

This is the second time in this thread you have repeated this BS.  I didn't state it in this thread or in any prior reply to your posts, not even once.

What I have stated multiple times is that I expect practically all of this coinage (post 1933 US) in grades up to MS-66 to sell for less than the grading fee or nominal premiums to silver spot. A lot of it sells for less than the grading fee now.  So, it's hardly a shocking claim.

Notice I didn't limit it to US moderns?  No, you didn't, because you dislike that I contradict your exaggerated claims.

On 7/23/2023 at 4:41 PM, cladking said:

They are what they are and your beliefs and my beliefs are irrelevant and irrelevant to future supply, demand, and price performance.  

I don't just base my claims on an arbitrary opinion, I base it on how collectors and non-collectors are known to perceive collecting.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:55 PM, cladking said:

...And this could just indicate the great depth of potential demand.  

Potential is light years away from what you have written.  Read your own posts.  

[zadok]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:46 PM, cladking said:

There are virtually no bank rolls of 1965 to 1998 clads.  

When they appear is such a freak occurrence that the price realized is irrelevant unless it's a sale on the net.  

...i see them on a weekly basis with no buyers often returned to consignors due to no bids of face value...one dealer at a local show couple months back actually had cases full of clads but no customers....

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:38 PM, World Colonial said:

I've never either stated or implied that US moderns or world "moderns" are junk.  You're reading this into my posts because the facts and reasoning I provide contradict you.

Of course you did.  You said even expensive moderns would be face value in the future.

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:40 PM, zadok said:

...i see them on a weekly basis with no buyers often returned to consignors due to no bids of face value...one dealer at a local show couple months back actually had cases full of clads but no customers....

What dates???!!!

I certainly believe "no customers" but have great doubt about cases full of clad single, rolls, or bags between 1965 and 1998.  It's hard to believe anyone with this kind of material would attempt to sell them at a local coin show or even at a national show. Anyone who owned such material would know that it is scarce or that there is no market for it.  It's not impossible that someone would foolishly try to sell mint set rolls in such a venue since some of these rolls bring good prices now days but NOT bank rolls.  They simply don't exist.  Most people with mint set rolls wouldn't try selling them at any coin show.  

Mint set rolls of Ikes might sell at a dealer oriented show and could actually exist.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I went to FUN 2020 and saw plenty of modern coins and commemoratives.  Out of let's call it 300 dealers, I'd say 20% had some kind of modern coin or commemorative from recent decades.

I'd call it somewhat less numerous than Morgan dealers, but more than Saint dealers.

Quite sure quite a bit of NCLT at the shows I attended too.  Plenty of low-priced world coinage also.  I don't bother stopping at US only coin dealers anymore, so can't speak to US moderns.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:43 PM, cladking said:

Of course you did.  You said even expensive moderns would be face value in the future.

Find the post where I stated it.  You can't because I never said it.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:51 PM, cladking said:

What dates???!!!

I certainly believe "no customers" but have great doubt about cases full of clad single, rolls, or bags between 1965 and 1998.  It's hard to believe anyone with this kind of material would attempt to sell them at a local coin show or even at a national show. Anyone who owned such material would know that it is scarce or that there is no market for it.  It's not impossible that someone would foolishly try to sell mint set rolls in such a venue since some of these rolls bring good prices now days but NOT bank rolls.  They simply don't exist.  Most people with mint set rolls wouldn't try selling them at any coin show.  

Mint set rolls of Ikes might sell at a dealer oriented show and could actually exist.  

So, when Wonder Coin said he has a SDB vault "full" of 1933 and later US coinage, he doesn't count either?

Go read one of your "Raw Moderns" threads.  His post is right below one of yours.  He also claimed he knows other dealers and collectors who have a lot of it too.  Yes, including a lot of US moderns. 

He didn't provide specifics but there is no basis to believe someone like Wonder Coin would store a lot of junk.  He alone potentially has 10,000s of this coinage across most or all dates. at least.  It's not like it takes up that much space.

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:40 PM, zadok said:

...i see them on a weekly basis with no buyers often returned to consignors due to no bids of face value...one dealer at a local show couple months back actually had cases full of clads but no customers....

I remember there was a dealer at the pre-ANA show in Pittsburg in 1989 who was selling mint sets like they were hotcakes.  There was a steady stream of retail buyers and he had boxes and boxes of sets spread around his table.  It was an amazing sight and I never could really account for it.  The 1969 mint set had just soared up to $20 for no apparent reason but there wasn't much going on in the market otherwise.  

I also saw a guy who was selling souvenir mint sets many years before his time.  I shouldda bought a bunch of them.

Speaking what I shouldda bought there was also an Indian dealer in Pittsburg selling lots of Indian coins mostly at prices about double retail.  He actually had mint sets but in those days I didn't yet know how rare they were and passed because of the sky high price (~$6).   Now they go for up to $2000.  

 

In those days I was camping at out of the way spots and driving a car that got 45 MPG because I couldn't afford such things as rare sets for $6.  If I bought any mint sets I might have to spend the Ikes for gas money to get home.  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:59 PM, World Colonial said:

So, when Wonder Coin said he has a SDB vault "full" of 1933 and later US coinage, he doesn't count either?

Counting varieties and stuff you can hardly get more than about ten of everything into a large safety deposit box.  ...One of everything if they are already slabbed.  

After four years of selling I might still have more than he does.  Sure he has a lot more world class coins than I do because he knows the market and has opportunity to buy the best but anyone counting on me or Wondercoin to service all the future collectors is miscalculating very very badly.  There are bigger hoarders than I who have been setting these aside for decades but even altogether we couldn't support a mass market for longer than a few days.  I seriously doubt there is the equivalent of a bag or two of most dates in aggregate along with an average of a few hundred nice Gem coins.  These coins were just too widely disseminated to be gathered up again.  I chased them largely by zip code because the Gems tended to go to the same place but otherwise you just had to go through mint sets which is what I did.  

To you it seems like there are a lot of moderns because you see mountains of them everywhere.  What you are missing is that many moderns just aren't in these mountains.  Indian mint sets and BU rolls of clads aren't in the mountain.  People simply couldn't afford to set aside $10 for a roll of quarters nobody would ever want and were considered "common junk".  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:59 PM, World Colonial said:

He didn't provide specifics but there is no basis to believe someone like Wonder Coin would store a lot of junk.  He alone potentially has 10,000s of this coinage across most or all dates. at least.  It's not like it takes up that much space.

I don't know.   It's hard to believe anyone would store garbage even if it were available cheap and they had plenty of storage.  I had minimum standards around MS-64 or coins I describe as "gemmy".  These have done so badly and Wondercoin started so late it's hard to believe he has anything below MS-66 or so.  There's no way he could accumulate large quantities by simply buying and selling mint sets.  Screening coins takes time and a lot of sets to accumulate quantities.  Nobody can be a true market maker with the kinds of quantities actually available which is why nobody has really tried.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

Counting varieties and stuff you can hardly get more than about ten of everything into a large safety deposit box.  ...One of everything if they are already slabbed. 

He wasn't referring to his "core" collection.  It was everything else.

He never specifically stated whether it was slabbed or not.  He inferred he didn't remember what he had, meaning that it isn't graded and needed to be searched, nor is there a reason to expect it. 

Even if all the coins he has are MS-66 or better (which he didn't say and I didn't claim), grading large volumes of post 1933 US coinage would be self-defeating.  The TPG population data doesn't indicate it either, unless you want to believe he has an abnormal pct. of these coins in a holder.  I don't believe this as his post didn't indicate or imply it.

On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

After four years of selling I might still have more than he does.  Sure he has a lot more world class coins than I do because he knows the market and has opportunity to buy the best but anyone counting on me or Wondercoin to service all the future collectors is miscalculating very very badly. 

I'm sure you think it's miscalculation.  At least we can agree on that.

On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

There are bigger hoarders than I who have been setting these aside for decades but even altogether we couldn't support a mass market for longer than a few days. 

Where is the evidence even any US common classic (1916-1964 plus Lincoln cents to 1909) sells in the numbers you imply within a few days, outside of rolls or as "junk silver"?  No collector needs a roll for their collection.

On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

I seriously doubt there is the equivalent of a bag or two of most dates in aggregate along with an average of a few hundred nice Gem coins.  These coins were just too widely disseminated to be gathered up again.  I chased them largely by zip code because the Gems tended to go to the same place but otherwise you just had to go through mint sets which is what I did.  

I know you don't, because you assume your experience is representative when it isn't for the reasons I gave you.

For "gems", I have no idea how many exist under your criteria as it's exactly that, yours.  I'll stick with my prediction that at least 95% are an R-1 with 1250+ in MS-66.

On 7/23/2023 at 9:11 PM, cladking said:

To you it seems like there are a lot of moderns because you see mountains of them everywhere.  What you are missing is that many moderns just aren't in these mountains.  Indian mint sets and BU rolls of clads aren't in the mountain.  People simply couldn't afford to set aside $10 for a roll of quarters nobody would ever want and were considered "common junk".  

No, my opinion has nothing to do with what you wrote.

I'd never assume my observations are representative of the supply, absent corroborating evidence.  By corroborating, not the equally unrepresentative observations of the few collectors any of us know.

It's due to what I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread.

You don't have any idea of the availability of much older coins (no, not 1933-1964 US or earlier common 20th century world coinage).  It's partly evident just in the TPG population data, but you can't be bothered to look it up. 

I've told you that this alone is much better evidence than what you believe.  Coins which have an infinitesimal probability of survival in "high" quality exist in much larger number than most collectors would expect, but you still think this coinage (US moderns and world "moderns") has the availability from your observations.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 9:17 PM, cladking said:

I don't know.   It's hard to believe anyone would store garbage even if it were available cheap and they had plenty of storage.  I had minimum standards around MS-64 or coins I describe as "gemmy".  These have done so badly and Wondercoin started so late it's hard to believe he has anything below MS-66 or so.  There's no way he could accumulate large quantities by simply buying and selling mint sets.  Screening coins takes time and a lot of sets to accumulate quantities.  Nobody can be a true market maker with the kinds of quantities actually available which is why nobody has really tried.  

The whole point of citing him as an example is that it only takes a handful or low number of collectors to hoard any coin to noticeably or drastically distort the supply.

It's happened regularly with noticeably older coinage.  You just assume it doesn't (hardly ever) happen for this coinage when there is no reason to believe it.  "Hoard" doesn't have to be a SDB vault, It can and is a much larger number of people saving smaller accumulations, like that 23 roll listing of 69-D "BU" quarters on eBay I linked for you in a prior thread.

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:42 PM, World Colonial said:

"Hoard" doesn't have to be a SDB vault, It can and is a much larger number of people saving smaller accumulations, like that 23 roll listing of 69-D "BU" quarters on eBay I linked for you in a prior thread.

No time now to address these new points but just quickly if I remember those 23 rolls they were mint set rolls.  This date comes very nice before they tarnish so of these 920 coins you can bet the individual who accumulated them got a few MS-67's, a dozen MS-66's and might have saved out some of the nicer Gems.  Where are you going to get 920 1969 mint sets today?   85% of the '69-D quarters will be tarnished.  Even in the old days it would take some time to accumulate so many sets and the price was much lower.  

Today there aren't 920 1969 mint sets on the market.  If you bought every one advertised for sale (discounting eBay) you'd just run the price higher and spend nearly $15,000 if you could find so many.  For what?! There's no market for these coins even after they are restored.  MS-67's aren't worth all that much.  Mint sets on the market are picked over a little bit.  The economics are against it.  

If you could find rolls of these (they are very scarce) the odds are there is no Gem in the typical roll.  Once in a while you can find a roll with a few nice coins or even several but these are the exception.  What kind of odds do you have with something like this?  If they're nice rolls they get searched.  

 

You don't find 1969-D quarters in the mountain of moderns.  When you do they are mint sets.  Most 1969 mint sets were destroyed long ago and today most of the survivors are tarnished.  This is just the way it is.  And if you think you can just get these in circulation think again; most of them are long gone and the survivors are worn out culls.  

This isn't 1970 any longer.  '69-D quarters are cheap due to lack of demand.  They are scarcer for all practical purposes than '50-D nickels and are far more widely dispersed.  Nice attractive coins are difficult in all grades and many of these are ugly and poorly made.  

[Henri Charriere]

On 7/10/2023 at 9:51 AM, cladking said:

If there's no practical difference between grades than why do only the finest MS-66's get sent in to try for a 67?....

What better than a -66 (or better yet, a -66 with a suffix) to submit for an elevation in grade? Consider, too, the financialization involved. I have (or had) both a -66 and a -67.  The price of the latter, quite coincidentally, was twice that of the former.  It's nothing more complicated than that.

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 8:55 AM, Henri Charriere said:

What better than a -66 (or better yet, a -66 with a suffix) to submit for an elevation in grade? Consider, too, the financialization involved. I have (or had) both a -66 and a -67.  The price of the latter, quite coincidentally, was twice that of the former.  It's nothing more complicated than that.

Every coin is unique.  Every coin varies on numerous parameters. 

These unique characteristics are then weighed and "grades" assigned. These definitions for grading really make this process "pricing" rather than "grading".  It's not that some coins lie between two grades so might be graded differently on subsequent submissions it's that many (all) coins lie  between two or three grades in some ways.  When a coin is sent to be priced there is no single standard.  "Graders" use their knowledge an experience to shoehorn every coin into one single grade.  Of course some coins are not a good fit in their grade which often leads to resubmission.  

But the discernment of ten (11) levels of quality is very easy.  Anyone can be taught to separate Unc coins into such categories and do it fairly consistently.  It's not the fineness of the grading system that causes bad fits but rather the vagaries of collector preference which is in itself a moving target and definitions we use to grade coins.  

Some coins are going to grade exactly the same no matter how many times they are submitted and some will bounce between two or three grades.  

 

This isn't as much a problem with moderns as it is classics because moderns almost all have the same surfaces and they are usually original.  Older coins have more variable surfaces because of exposure to environments and collectors over centuries.  

Collectors want their coins priced rather than graded and this is exactly the expertise we pay for when we send in coins.  

[cladking]

 

Quote

Where is the evidence even any US common classic (1916-1964 plus Lincoln cents to 1909) sells in the numbers you imply within a few days, outside of rolls or as "junk silver"?  No collector needs a roll for their collection.

1909-S VDB cents flow onto the market at a relatively steady rate and enjoy a relatively steady demand.  When demand goes up more coins become available because of the new higher price.  The price is the interplay between supply and demand but there are no longer any original buyers sitting on rolls and bags.  Their hoards have long since been dispersed.  

Modern markets are very very different not only because of the tiny supply but the fact that there aren't old collections of early clad or most other moderns.  The only "balance" or interplay between supply and demand is that the demand is tiny so supply tends to be irrelevant.  As demand has been increasing it is largely mint sets making up the difference.  When the mint sets are gone the "entire" supply will be gone and the number of collections coming into coin shops will still be miniscule much as it is today.  '69-D quarters don't come into coin shops except as mint sets.  If and when the price goes up there will not be an increase in supply to contain it.  If and when demand increases it will have very little impact on the number of coins coming into coin shops.  Indeed, dealers still aren't even trying to stock such coins as the Ikes which have already increased substantially because they still have no customers. 

A few hoards, even in aggregate, are not going to make much difference in a market so far out of balance.  

The very definition of "mass market" implies that every coin shop will have at least some demand for these coins and most dealers will expend at least limited effort to secure a supply.  This will give rise to a wholesale market constituting significant demand but still highly limited and widely dispersed supply. A market that's all demand and no supply can fly no better than a swallow laden with coconuts. 

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:36 PM, World Colonial said:

For "gems", I have no idea how many exist under your criteria as it's exactly that, yours. 

You keep harping on this but I have a pretty good idea how they grade coins.  Certainly I'm no expert on the matter but anyone who can grade can understand the current system.  When I call a coin "MS-66" I'm referring to its holder grade or the most likely grade it will receive if sent in.  I call this coin "chGem" in my grading system which closely parallels the existing grading system.  My system merely attaches a great deal more weight to factors involving strike  and die condition so can raise or lower a few coins as much as a grade or two.  All collectors have preferences and often prefer one coin to another in the same grade.  I prefer hammered strikes by new dies right in the very center of the planchet.  I call those that are like this and aren't too badly marked up "gemmy" even in grades down to MS-64.  

Like everyone I prefer no problem coins.  The best coins are always the best coins no matter how you grade them and there's some tendency for nice moderns to be nice for every parameter.  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:42 PM, World Colonial said:

The whole point of citing him as an example is that it only takes a handful or low number of collectors to hoard any coin to noticeably or drastically distort the supply.

Of course.  And if someone came up with a couple bags of nice pristine '09-S VDB's today it would crash the market.  

You're comparing apples and oranges.   If someone made a coin dealer buy a couple boxes of 2009 dimes they would probably end up in the till or hauled to the bank. 

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 6:33 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What can you do weekly in these meetings ?  I mean, what changes week-to-week ?  Monthly meetings I guess make sense, but weekly ?

The Order of Business is 1) any Old or New Business before the club, 2) Show and tell, 3) A talk by a member, usually about 30 minutes, and 4) a 75-125 lot auction, sometimes more, sometimes less. And they do it EVERY Tuesday at Rainbow City, AL City Hell. The majority of the members are residents of Georgia, not Alabama. It's a border area.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 11:08 PM, cladking said:

No time now to address these new points but just quickly if I remember those 23 rolls they were mint set rolls. 

The listing didn't state whether it came from mint sets or not.  You're just assuming it under your assumption that this was the only coinage saved.

On 7/23/2023 at 11:08 PM, cladking said:

You don't find 1969-D quarters in the mountain of moderns.  When you do they are mint sets.  Most 1969 mint sets were destroyed long ago and today most of the survivors are tarnished.  This is just the way it is.  And if you think you can just get these in circulation think again; most of them are long gone and the survivors are worn out culls.  

 

No, it's not going to be found in circulating change, something you have claimed is supposedly unexpected, even for coins dated up to 58 years old.

I agree most Mint sets have been broken up or aren't what it was at issuance.  The original supply was also huge.  Go look at the US Mint sales records.  If 5% to 10% still exist more or less as struck, it's not a small number, except to you.

Ultimately like the rest of our disagreements, it's based upon your inaccurate premises, when you aren't exaggerating something which you do all the time.

Your "scarcity" claims are based upon three primary inaccurate assumptions.  First, you claim to know what no one can possibly know.  If someone pulled this coinage from circulation (in large numbers) which coin forum members alone could have done, you are in no position to know it.  You act as if what you don't see doesn't exist.  Second, you do this because you also assume this coinage is "hated", which is simply your code word that others have to pay the price you think it should be worth to prove you wrong.  Third, then when you don't see it as often as you think you should in the quality you expect, you claim it's "scarce" or "rare" under the assumption that your personal experience is representative when it isn't.

You claim your experience is representative but then totally disregard @VKurtB and @zadok  They told you flat out they see this coinage (US moderns) in rolls regularly.  Doesn't mean it's your "gems" or MS-66 quality and they didn't specify the coin, but they aren't ignorant where they would mistakenly identify it when it's actually circulated junk either.

On 7/23/2023 at 11:08 PM, cladking said:

 

This isn't 1970 any longer.  '69-D quarters are cheap due to lack of demand.  They are scarcer for all practical purposes than '50-D nickels and are far more widely dispersed.  Nice attractive coins are difficult in all grades and many of these are ugly and poorly made.  

No, the coins aren't scarce.  The graded populations aren't that high (for a US 20th century coin) but not low either.  These coins are easy to buy, any day of the week, on Ebay.  It's only "scarce" compared to even more common circulating coinage.

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 11:48 AM, World Colonial said:

The listing didn't state whether it came from mint sets or not.  You're just assuming it under your assumption that this was the only coinage saved.

No.  I can always tell the difference and there are always numerous clues.  Whether it's 1 roll or hundreds they are almost invariably going to be mint set rolls because clads were not saved.  

I doubt I've seen 20 intact '69-D rolls since 1970!  Most of these coins were awful but some rolls (I looked at lots of them in 1969) had as many as nine or ten nice coins.  I would guess about 3% of '69-D's made for circulation would be "gemmy" as opposed to mint set coins which often grade much higher would be about 20% gemmy and 3% full Gem.  

I've never seen even one single original bank roll of '69-(philly) quarters since 1970!!  I even advertised to buy them a couple times.  I actually own almost five full rolls of the nicest ones made because I walked into a coin shop where the owner had just put five rolls in the till a few days earlier. He allowed me to go through and pull them out.  

Most clad rolls are virtually non-existent except for mint set rolls.  But the vast majority of mint set coins have been put into circulation by dealers.  Millions of mint sets were made and few of the quarters and dimes have been saved.  

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 11:48 AM, World Colonial said:

I agree most Mint sets have been broken up or aren't what it was at issuance.  The original supply was also huge.  Go look at the US Mint sales records.  If 5% to 10% still exist more or less as struck, it's not a small number, except to you.

Well... ...yes... ...and.... ...no.  

65%+ of '69 mint sets are gone.  Of the one third that survive 90% are tarnished.  This leaves 3-4% that are as issued.  This is a lot of coins per current demand but a drop in the bucket for "mass markets".  There's also the fact that some of the coins in this set are ugly as much as 75% of the time knocking the supply of attractive coins down under 1% of mintage.   

Of course coins will come out of the woodwork if a mass market develops.  Tarnished coins can often be fully restored. 

But absolute numbers are still quite small and Gems are still and always have been highly elusive.  

[cladking]

It's very unexpected for me.  Back before 1999 you still saw a few pretty nice well made and lightly worn older quarters.  These were almost all common dates but there were a few better dates in nice F or VF condition.  Many of these have worn down or been damaged. Some have been picked off by states quarter collectors who just happened to notice the older coins rarely came nice.  

The huge mintages of coins since 1999 have just swamped the incidence of nice older quarters.  And every year they stand out a little more.  

 

Everyone always told me that it didn't matter how rare clad was if it could be found in circulation but now older nice clad isn't in circulation and neither are half dollars. Ikes can't even be ordered and there's some reason to suspect they've been destroyed.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

 

1909-S VDB cents flow onto the market at a relatively steady rate and enjoy a relatively steady demand.  When demand goes up more coins become available because of the new higher price.  The price is the interplay between supply and demand but there are no longer any original buyers sitting on rolls and bags.  Their hoards have long since been dispersed.  

If 50,000 exist and the average holding period is 10 years, that's 100 coins sold per week.  Adjust for whatever number you like.  That's not a huge volume being sold within a few days or even per month.  Yes, I know it's more than most coins.  

On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

Modern markets are very very different not only because of the tiny supply but the fact that there aren't old collections of early clad or most other moderns. 

Once again assuming to know what no one can possibly know.

On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

'69-D quarters don't come into coin shops except as mint sets.  If and when the price goes up there will not be an increase in supply to contain it.  If and when demand increases it will have very little impact on the number of coins coming into coin shops.  Indeed, dealers still aren't even trying to stock such coins as the Ikes which have already increased substantially because they still have no customers. 

Once again, ignoring the internet.  No one needs to buy this type of coin in a coin shop.

On 7/24/2023 at 11:11 AM, cladking said:

A few hoards, even in aggregate, are not going to make much difference in a market so far out of balance.  

It's not out of balance, except to someone who projects an unsubstantiated increase in demand and exaggerates the scarcity.

Do some math.  A SDB vault of coinage is a large number.  I don't know how large or how full this one is, but the 5X10 I have at my bank will hold somewhere in the vicinity of 10,000 coins in rolls.  A vault, potentially hundreds of thousands, maybe over 1MM.  That's not a small number cumulatively when a noticeable proportion is "high quality" and the market is so limited.  This is for one person, even if an outlier.

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 11:48 AM, World Colonial said:

If someone pulled this coinage from circulation (in large numbers) which coin forum members alone could have done, you are in no position to know it. 

This isn't possible.  There were no very high grades left by 1999 when states quarter collectors began removing a few coins. Mostly they got nice F's and a few VF's.  This is why if you could find a statistically significant sample in circulation for '69-D quarters the high end would show significant attenuation.  Without nice F's in circulation there are no coins to create nice VG's.  The nice coins are pretty much gone and what exists are heavily worn culls.   Some common dates can still be found in nice VF.  

On 7/24/2023 at 11:48 AM, World Colonial said:

Third, then when you don't see it as often as you think you should in the quality you expect, you claim it's "scarce" or "rare" under the assumption that your personal experience is representative when it isn't.

Have you never heard of "sampling"?  This is a scientific means of discovering reality and the coinfidence level can even be computed.  I have enough experience to not care about R ^ 2 but your suggestion I can't know is wholly unfounded.