Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[cladking]

On 7/14/2023 at 6:07 PM, World Colonial said:

Collectively, the only relevant more common "old" US coins are 1933-1964.  US coins older than this are not more common, except in some instances by using your same arbitrary criteria which no one else cares about and you won't even pay for it.  (No, there is no comparability between hoarded Morgan dollars and pre-1933 gold, as your claims on the metal content equally have no merit.)

Again.  The 1975 PR dime is far scarcer than the 1894-S dime.  The '76 PR Ike is even scarcer than this.  

There are many very rare and scarce moderns.  

Comparisons of the collectability of one era to another is practically meaningless but then you take it a step further and declare moderns to be lesser and less worthy.  

 

On 7/14/2023 at 6:07 PM, World Colonial said:

There is a "mass market" for US moderns since 1965

 

Really!  You say there is a "mass market" but the '50-D nickel with nearly two million examples achieved a valuation of several hundred dollars in today's money while the '82-P quarter with fewer than 3% the survivorship can't achieve much more than $7 on the wholesale market!!!   Where do you see this mass market?  When was the last time you saw a collection of nice BU clad dimes walk into a coin shop?  Even after 60 years there are still rolls, bags, and collections of '50-D nickels and '60-D sm dt cents walking into coin shops but there are no clads coming in because these collections don't even exist much less do they constitute a "mass market".  

People have tunnel vision and they see what they expect/.  you expect a "mass market" so when you see HSN selling states coins you see a mass market for all moderns.  It simply doesn't exist.  Circulating moderns are appreciated only in Russia and China at this time but there are stirrings all over the world and there are isolated coins all over the world already discovered to be rare despite high mintages. 

[cladking]

On 7/14/2023 at 6:24 PM, World Colonial said:

So you keep telling me, yet the evidence proves you wrong, again.  Hundreds of thousands to millions collect this coinage (world "moderns") in some format, yet you keep repeating this nonsense just because you don't see the coins as often as you think you should in the quality you expect and the prices don't satisfy you.

As an exercise then why don't you tell me which countries are an exception to the rule.  There are a couple so this should be easy.  

People simply didn't save the debased coinage which is why you can find plenty of old silver coins in nice chBU but you can't always find the later, high mintage, poorly made coins.  

 

The very nature of language and definitions always leaves exceptions.  

[cladking]

On 7/14/2023 at 6:39 PM, World Colonial said:

I don't believe you know the prices of these coins now or possibly since you started collecting world "moderns" because your posts don't indicate it, and no one can possibly know what you imply to know.  There must be in the vicinity of 100,000 now and recently (maybe 50,000 when you started) in this arbitrary "coin dump" you call world "moderns". No one can possibly know the actual prices for more than a very low fraction, especially for coins that you claim were "rare" or "scarce" that you never saw it in your local dealer's inventory, which is what I know is the source for the majority of your personal unrepresentative experience.

I'm sure I can learn prices if I cared about prices.  I am first and foremost a collectors.  Secondarily I am trying to be a steward for modern coins.  Tertiarily I am an investor. 

Right now I am selling so pricing is more important than ever before but it still takes a back seat to the coins and their scarcity.  I know I leave a lot of money on the table but selling in this hobby has always been harder than buying. I knew this going in so I always sold a coin once in a while so I'd know their true value which is often much less than catalog and sometimes more.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, cladking said:

Again.  The 1975 PR dime is far scarcer than the 1894-S dime.  The '76 PR Ike is even scarcer than this.  

There are many very rare and scarce moderns.  

This is irrelevant to your broader claim and has nothing to do with my post to which you responded.  I'm not referring to this type of coinage.

On 7/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, cladking said:

Comparisons of the collectability of one era to another is practically meaningless but then you take it a step further and declare moderns to be lesser and less worthy.  

Total BS.  I never said such a thing.

I'm telling you that your standard of "scarcity" is a complete exaggeration.  There are only three options for you to claim this coinage is "scarce" or "rare".

One: Based upon your irrelevant quality criteria that no one else cares about, except to the extent it correlates to the TPG label.  That's the market standard, not what you decide.  It's a complete contrivance anyway.

Two: Specialization almost entirely practiced only within the US and invented here.  Most coins as a date/denomination are "scarce" or "rare" under some US practiced specialization.  It's the equivalent of awarding a "participation trophy" just for showing up.  There is zero reason to believe that hardly any of this coinage will become substantially more valuable than it is now.

Three: What I told you in my last post which you misinterpreted.  In "high quality" or the quality most collectors will accept, US circulating moderns are only "scarce" versus 1933-1964 US coinage + Morgan dollars and common pre-1933 gold, both of which were also hoarded.  There is no equivalence between the last two groups and US moderns, as there is virtually no cross-over between this coinage for obvious reasons.  There is zero significance in any coin (US or otherwise) being scarcer vs. 1933-1964 US coinage, as it's somewhere in the vicinity of the one-percentile for "scarcity".  Practically every coin ever made is scarcer, at least those made for circulation.

On 7/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, cladking said:

Really! 

Yes, really.

On 7/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, cladking said:

You say there is a "mass market" but the '50-D nickel with nearly two million examples achieved a valuation of several hundred dollars in today's money while the '82-P quarter with fewer than 3% the survivorship can't achieve much more than $7 on the wholesale market!!!   Where do you see this mass market?  

So, now you're just "making up" another definition of "mass market"?  That's just what you did.

I never said the market scale was what you think it should be.  Where did you get that and why would you think it?

I'm telling you that the US Mint sales records and even the TPG populations prove you wrong and that's a fact.  I never said you liked the result.  It's a "mass market' at prices below your preference but still one.

On 7/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, cladking said:

 When was the last time you saw a collection of nice BU clad dimes walk into a coin shop?  Even after 60 years there are still rolls, bags, and collections of '50-D nickels and '60-D sm dt cents walking into coin shops but there are no clads coming in because these collections don't even exist much less do they constitute a "mass market".  

Totally irrelevant to what I told you.

No, this doesn't happen, because clad wasn't hoarded like silver as I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread.  There was no economic incentive to hoard clad then but instead of recognizing this as obvious, you claim it isn't "natural" by ignoring the silver preference, in contradiction to thousands of years of history.

On 7/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, cladking said:

People have tunnel vision and they see what they expect/.  you expect a "mass market" so when you see HSN selling states coins you see a mass market for all moderns.  It simply doesn't exist.  Circulating moderns are appreciated only in Russia and China at this time but there are stirrings all over the world and there are isolated coins all over the world already discovered to be rare despite high mintages. 

If anyone has "tunnel vision", it is you.  Go read your prior posts (including in this thread) where you've used somewhere in the vicinity of a dozen assumptions (premises) which have nothing to do with how (virtually) anyone collects.  I've told why your premises are wrong, my explanations and evidence are much better than your belief, and yet you still believe it anyway.

One of them is your claim of rarity in this quote.  You don't know what you claim, as no one can possibly know it.  You've claimed it repeatedly.  What do you not understand about that?

Let me also repeat what i just told you.  "Mass market" doesn't mean sales volume at the prices you insist should exist.  Yes, I agree that the economic scale of this collecting is a lot less than US classics, including 1933-1964 alone.  Doesn't change that a lot of people/collector bought and buy this coinage.  Hardly anyone likes this coinage as much as you think they should but it's still being collected.  That's the point and yes, sales of hundreds of thousands to millions annually (regardless of the price) qualifies as a "mass market" in coin collecting.

Edited July 16, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/15/2023 at 10:54 AM, cladking said:

As an exercise then why don't you tell me which countries are an exception to the rule.  There are a couple so this should be easy.  

The very nature of language and definitions always leaves exceptions.  

I don't need to provide an exception, by your own definition.

First, you're calling this arbitrary "coin dump" of approximately 100,000 coins now (maybe 50,000 when you started in the 70's) world "moderns" and I'm telling you that hundreds of thousands to millions collect this coinage worldwide.

Second, I never said most of these people were paying premiums to FV, as I don't know how much they pay.  In the last few decades, they certainly have, going by the sources I gave you.  US collectors weren't in the 60's either, except those who bought proof and mint sets.  This era is your implied "baseline" for "normal" collecting.  

Third, there is widespread collecting of this world coinage in the US and to a lesser extent in Europe.  Less in the rest of the world due to lack of access and possibly interest.  It's just at prices below what you want.

On 7/15/2023 at 10:54 AM, cladking said:

People simply didn't save the debased coinage which is why you can find plenty of old silver coins in nice chBU but you can't always find the later, high mintage, poorly made coins.  

Yes, that's what you keep telling me, even when I keep on telling you that you have no idea what billions of people did or didn't do over decades, and that's a fact.

You assume in error that your unrepresentative personal experience and that of the few collectors you know/knew is accurate when there is no basis to believe that.

No, people didn't hoard this base metal coinage, for economic reasons.  Yes, I know this silver coinage is more common.  There is zero significance to any scarcity vs. earlier 20th century world coinage.  It's the equivalent of a comparison between US moderns and 1933-1964 US coinage, one very common coin versus another. 

You'd have others believe these "moderns" are scarcer than any number of actually noticeably older world "classics" without directly stating it.  There is no basis to believe it, except in very low proportion.

Edited July 16, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/15/2023 at 11:00 AM, cladking said:

I'm sure I can learn prices if I cared about prices.  I am first and foremost a collectors.  Secondarily I am trying to be a steward for modern coins.  Tertiarily I am an investor. 

No, you can't, any more than I can do it.  That's the point.

You're making these broad price claims when it's not possible for anyone to know what you claim. 

How can you know the current and historical prices of in the vicinity of 100,000 coins?  Or even those you consider "scarce" or "rare", especially when you yourself admitted you never saw so many even once?  That's what you admitted in the Swiss "moderns" thread on the PCGS forum.

So, you're telling me you know the prices of coins when you never saw it sell?

[World Colonial]

On 7/15/2023 at 11:00 AM, cladking said:

Right now I am selling so pricing is more important than ever before but it still takes a back seat to the coins and their scarcity.  I know I leave a lot of money on the table but selling in this hobby has always been harder than buying. I knew this going in so I always sold a coin once in a while so I'd know their true value which is often much less than catalog and sometimes more.  

I read your earlier post about potentially leaving multiple SDB of this stuff.

If I were you, I wouldn't do that.  I know you don't agree with me but if you want to maximize the return for you or your heirs, you need to take a far more objective position on the prices and prospects.  If you don't, most of what you leave is likely to be eventually dumped in a Coin Star machine or on a local dealer.  Selling a huge volume of low value coins is a tedious time-consuming exercise which isn't attractive to most people.

For US modern coinage, I'd grade whatever is eligible for the higher TPG numbers (like a 66 or one under the "top pop") if it's worth enough of a premium over the slab fee.  I'd get rid of it, but I can see keeping it.  Anything you own in volume isn't likely to ever to appreciate substantially because it's too common and the preference is never going to increase as you have told me in your posts.   You're not the only one who owns this stuff.  You've used 60's coinage as a comparison but most of it wasn't worth much at the time and isn't now either, for the same reason.

I'd also get rid of a coin like the 1950 NZ 6P and 1/.  Yes, I know you bought it cheap decades ago, but this type of coin isn't likely to appreciate anywhere near as much as it has from here because these are already pricey coins to most collectors.  Heritage sold an MS-66 6P for $1200 (I think) and Noble Numismatics sold an ungraded shilling "choice" for $300 AUD but that was awhile ago now.

I'd consider converting it to silver or gold bullion if you can find way to trade it.  You have more contacts than I do.

[GoldFinger1969]

WC, CK....I saw this article when going through my archives.  It's about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90 by Burton Blumert, a bigtime Morgan and silver dealer back in the day.

Anyway, it mentions the 1960 Small Cents, the 1950-D Nickel, and "Low-Pop" coins and High-Grade Generics.  Thought it might be of interest.

____________________________________

 

The Market Crash of ‘90

By Burton S. Blumert

I bring you very bad news about the rare coin investment market. Put away your daggers, please, as the only justification for killing the messenger is that he enjoys his mission. I submit this report with heavy heart.

As I write this, in late October 1990, most investment rare coins, particularly those that have been certified, have fallen 40-60 percent in value during the past 60 days. This is not a bear market, it is a debacle. And there is no question that plastic encased coins, notably Professional Coin Grading Service coins, have been the vehicle for the disaster.

How could a concept as sound as an independent coin grading service, which gave such promise for the rare coin industry, lead us to such a state? In 1986, when PCGS was launched, many felt that there was a desperate need for a third-party grading service. The rare coin investment market had been bedeviled by crooks, con men and, as to the grading of coins, plain old ignorance. PCGS had great success almost from the first day.

Dealers, investors and potential investors were easily persuaded that coin certification would eliminate uncertainty about coin quality and authenticity and that greater liquidity would follow. And that’s what happened! Crooked direct mail and telemarketing firms found that their victims for “whizzed” or counterfeit coins had disappeared. Coin companies that certified their own coins lost credibility.

But in retrospect, the damage done by the crooks that PCGS put out of business was nickel-and-dime as compared with monumental losses to come.

By 1988, PCGS had become a way of life for the industry. The Numismatic Guaranty Corporation joined the fray in 1987 and provided solid competition. Standards improved and advanced technology led to the ultimate dream, the ability to sell a coin automatically, sight-unseen.

In case you’re not aware of how “high-tech” the industry had become, here’s a brief description of how one of the sight-unseen certified coin electronic networks functioned: You, the investor, brought your MS-66 PCGS 1881-S Moran dollar to Dealer A. As an authorized dealer in the network, he simply punched up some keys on his computer and instantly produced bid prices for your coin. Not only was the highest bidder located, but we also learned how many coins that bidder would purchase.

Upon your instruction, Dealer A electronically “hit” the high bid and presto, your coin was sold, sight-unseen. Dealer A got some pre-arranged commission and the deal was done. If Dealer A was not part of the network, he simply contacted Dealer B who was authorized and the transaction was done through him.

The dream had become a reality. Armed with dazzling computer software, the brilliant coin entrepreneurs were confident that they would soon have Wall Street begging for part of the rare coin action.

Many dealers, especially the younger ones, fervently believed that the investor should buy only certified coins. A “raw”, uncertified coin was held in contempt unless it was deemed worthy of being submitted for “slabbing.” Held in greater contempt were the dealers who criticized some aspects of the certification process or who had grave concerns about the whole concept. In 1986, in an article titled “MS-65 Common-Date Tulipmania” I wrote:

"It is not that the salesmen (of certified coins) necessarily lack integrity. In market bubbles, the sellers get caught up in the craze as much as the buyers. Look at the $34,000 paid for an 1878-S common-date Morgan dollar at a recent southern California auction! But, dealer enthusiasm, true belief and slick advertising can be as dangerous to the unwary consumer as outright fraud."

Upon reading my article, a young coin journalist suggested that I was a dinosaur and surely suffered from “old-timers disease.”

Through 1988, 1989 and much of 1990, PCGS was certifying thousands of coins per week and NGC was not far behind. New graders were thrown into the trenches to ease the backlog.  Although occasionally sputtering, the electronic sight-unseen market was functioning and coins were selling like tulips, until…

In early October of this year, the rare coin market fell out of bed, especially generic, certified coins. Dealers could not sustain their bids as sell orders flooded in. Resources were stretched thin. Terms for payment were extended to as long as 30 days. Bidders began to find reasons why they could not post their bids on a given day. Dealers who had borrowed heavily against their investor found themselves under tremendous pressure. Finally, the sell orders overwhelmed the dealers and the system ground to a halt. In the 1986 “Tulipmania” article I wrote:

“The MS-65 cheerleaders contend that they are providing investor liquidity through repurchase of these coins. No matter how well intentioned, this small group of dealers could never withstand a selling wave, whether the coins are encased in plastic bricks or not. And it has always been so. Witness the bursting of the South Seas Bubble, the collapse of the tulip craze and the disastrous Ponzi-style real estate and stock pyramids. In our own industry, we need only look at the fall of the 1960 small-date cents and 1950-D Jefferson nickels.”

At this writing, the two electronic coin trading networks are feverishly trying to develop a system which will protect the bidders from being inundated with material they cannot buy. At the same time they are seeking some way to prevent sinking bid prices in one coin series after another. Some dealers have given up. Others have lost their inventory to the bank (more about the bank later) as coin values sank below loan levels. Every dealer has suffered significant losses and the domino effect of dealer failure is a constant specter as rumors abound about this or that dealer’s solvency.

Not only have rare coin values collapsed, even worse, the electronic sight-unseen market mechanisms are virtually non-existent.

Why is this market collapse different from any other?

The certified coin was so darned saleable that its success astonished and overwhelmed the industry. One respected trade source estimates sales of certified coins at well over $2 billion. Since high-grade generic and low-population coins comprised much of this volume, it is not surprising that the collapse of October 1990 is of record proportions.

At whom do we point the finger of blame?

The certified coin liberated the promoter from his old constraints. No longer need he scour the coin shows and auctions for legitimate numismatic material. No more negotiating with the Bulgarian Mint to produce next year’s super-low mintage proof set. No further need to search bags of U.S. coins for the elusive triple struck 1991 horizontal mint mark. The promoter was free at last. Could the telemarketer be far behind?

Consider how potent the telemarketer had now become. Often he represented a “well-known firm” or one with an important sounding name. Never before had he such a prestigious product as a PCGS or NGC certified coin. Add to that the knock-out punch of offering the unwary a “low-population” coin.

The PCGS Population Report is issued monthly and is a compilation of the grades of all coins certified. It’s very useful and proved to be a most powerful selling tool.  What follows is an accurate re-creation of a telephone sales pitch made to an 82 year old victim. All names are fictitious.

“Hello Mr. Jones… do you remember me? I’m Robert Highpower with the Federal American National Rarest Coin Company – I’m the fellow who sold you the MS-65 Saint-Gaudens in February. I’m calling to give you a report on the rare coin market. It’s terrific! You’re still losing on the platinum Swiss coins you bought in 1988, but our research department is suggesting trading all bullion items for rare coins.

“And speaking of rare coins, I have something so special that I can’t believe it is available. This 1890 $2.50 gold Liberty PCGS MS-65 is a one-of-a-kind, finest graded specimen as shown in the PCGS Population Report, September 1990 issue. Compared to other numismatic rarities with populations of five or less that sell for six figures, the 1890 $2.50 Liberty is a steal at $18,000.”

Mr. Jones found the pitch irresistible. Four experienced coin dealers examined the coin at my office last month. All saw it as MS-64. Their highest estimate of value was $2,100. The customer tried his best to get a refund or trade for bullion type material. He was willing to take a $5,000 loss and although he was a regular customer of this famous company, no relief was forthcoming. And I know why.

When the complete history of the Great Coin Collapse of October 1990 is written, I suspect the low-population coin will be revealed as the biggest culprit.

There were many experienced coin professionals who knew that the bubble would ultimately bust on the high-grade generic coins, but I don’t recall anybody warning that the low-population coin would be the instrument of such devastation.

In my Tulipmania article I criticized the creation of a new “rare” common coin. Now we have the “rare” low-population coin with no history of numismatic scarcity or desirability. I fear the market will ultimately speak to the low-population coin and it will say, “Yes, you may be a certified one-of-a-kind or finest known, but who cares?”

Now back to the finger of blame. PCGS may be guilty of certain deficiencies, but it shouldn’t have the market collapse laid entirely upon its doorstep. I suppose that the excesses of the promoters and the telemarketers could be blamed, but that’s like blaming the vulture for its bad eating habits.

In the realm of human activity there is often the unintended consequence of an action. Nobody could have predicted exactly where the creation of PCGS would lead. Maybe the older, experienced dealers should have recognized the dangers and shown more leadership by exposing the madness. Maybe they should have spoken out. If they had, however, I’m not sure anybody would have listened.

Is the market collapse over?

I don’t think so. We may see some rallies as the dealers pour all their energies and what’s left of their resources into saving the electronic trading networks. The joker in the deck is the bank in southern California that holds the certified coins as collateral against loans. I was told by a major dealer that he saw a computer printout as thick as the Manhattan phone book listing the coin inventory the bank held.

One day, if the certified rare coin market does not rebound, the bank will be forces to liquidate these coins. Dealers I have talked with about this shudder at the prospect.

What do you do with the certified coins?

I hope that your rare coin portfolio has few low-population, high-grade generics, and that you hold predominantly real, traditional rare coins. It is not apocryphal, however, that when the police raid the brothel, the piano player is arrested, too. So it is in a market collapse – the good stuff drops along with everything else.

I don’t think this is the time to sell any rare coins. But if there is any sort of rally in the high-grade generic market, run, don’t walk to your dealer’s office and dump them. If you are buried in low-population, expensive coin, talk to the dealer who sold it to you. Plead poverty or insanity, or say your spouse ordered you to sell. Suggest he trade it for Krugerrands or a traditional rare coin, anything to get you out as whole as possible.

If you are a collector, start snooping around for bargains. You just might be able to locate that proof Trade dollar at a decent price. As dealers face mounting financial pressure, they will be force to offer genuine values.

If you are an investor, wait a bit before you jump back in. And before you consider buying a rare coin again, give it the Infamous Blumert Test: Check the coin you are considering in a 10-year-old copy of A Guide Book Of United States Coins. If there is no evidence that the coin was rare 10 years earlier, tell the guy you can’t use his coin.

If the coin you are considering passes the Blumert Test, but your own grading skills are uncertain, stick to PCGS or NGC certified coins. If the item is expensive, get a third-party expert to confirm the grading. Remember, you’re buying a coin, not plastic.

There’s an old Wall Street adage: “Don’t buy until the blood is in the street.” Well, the blood is in the street, so you better make sure it’s not yours.

Edited July 17, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[Sandon]

    The article in the preceding post should be read by anyone who believes that coin prices can only increase or that the current list prices for abundantly common coins such as 1881-S and 1884-O Morgan dollars in frequently encountered grades are reasonable and not likely to decline.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/16/2023 at 10:17 PM, Sandon said:

    The article in the preceding post should be read by anyone who believes that coin prices can only increase or that the current list prices for abundantly common coins such as 1881-S and 1884-O Morgan dollars in frequently encountered grades are reasonable and not likely to decline.

Definitely in the short-term, of course ! 

I do think that 3 years into the TPGs is alot different in terms of what we can expect in terms of increased population numbers -- in total or in high grades -- than 36 years after their formation. 

At least that's what logic would dictate. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 7/16/2023 at 9:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

WC, CK....I saw this article when going through my archives.  It's about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90 by Burton Blumert, a bigtime Morgan and silver dealer back in the day.

Anyway, it mentions the 1960 Small Cents, the 1950-D Nickel, and "Low-Pop" coins and High-Grade Generics.  Thought it might be of interest.

____________________________________

 

The Market Crash of ‘90

By Burton S. Blumert

I bring you very bad news about the rare coin investment market. Put away your daggers, please, as the only justification for killing the messenger is that he enjoys his mission. I submit this report with heavy heart.

As I write this, in late October 1990, most investment rare coins, particularly those that have been certified, have fallen 40-60 percent in value during the past 60 days. This is not a bear market, it is a debacle. And there is no question that plastic encased coins, notably Professional Coin Grading Service coins, have been the vehicle for the disaster.

How could a concept as sound as an independent coin grading service, which gave such promise for the rare coin industry, lead us to such a state? In 1986, when PCGS was launched, many felt that there was a desperate need for a third-party grading service. The rare coin investment market had been bedeviled by crooks, con men and, as to the grading of coins, plain old ignorance. PCGS had great success almost from the first day.

Dealers, investors and potential investors were easily persuaded that coin certification would eliminate uncertainty about coin quality and authenticity and that greater liquidity would follow. And that’s what happened! Crooked direct mail and telemarketing firms found that their victims for “whizzed” or counterfeit coins had disappeared. Coin companies that certified their own coins lost credibility.

But in retrospect, the damage done by the crooks that PCGS put out of business was nickel-and-dime as compared with monumental losses to come.

By 1988, PCGS had become a way of life for the industry. The Numismatic Guaranty Corporation joined the fray in 1987 and provided solid competition. Standards improved and advanced technology led to the ultimate dream, the ability to sell a coin automatically, sight-unseen.

In case you’re not aware of how “high-tech” the industry had become, here’s a brief description of how one of the sight-unseen certified coin electronic networks functioned: You, the investor, brought your MS-66 PCGS 1881-S Moran dollar to Dealer A. As an authorized dealer in the network, he simply punched up some keys on his computer and instantly produced bid prices for your coin. Not only was the highest bidder located, but we also learned how many coins that bidder would purchase.

Upon your instruction, Dealer A electronically “hit” the high bid and presto, your coin was sold, sight-unseen. Dealer A got some pre-arranged commission and the deal was done. If Dealer A was not part of the network, he simply contacted Dealer B who was authorized and the transaction was done through him.

The dream had become a reality. Armed with dazzling computer software, the brilliant coin entrepreneurs were confident that they would soon have Wall Street begging for part of the rare coin action.

Many dealers, especially the younger ones, fervently believed that the investor should buy only certified coins. A “raw”, uncertified coin was held in contempt unless it was deemed worthy of being submitted for “slabbing.” Held in greater contempt were the dealers who criticized some aspects of the certification process or who had grave concerns about the whole concept. In 1986, in an article titled “MS-65 Common-Date Tulipmania” I wrote:

"It is not that the salesmen (of certified coins) necessarily lack integrity. In market bubbles, the sellers get caught up in the craze as much as the buyers. Look at the $34,000 paid for an 1878-S common-date Morgan dollar at a recent southern California auction! But, dealer enthusiasm, true belief and slick advertising can be as dangerous to the unwary consumer as outright fraud."

Upon reading my article, a young coin journalist suggested that I was a dinosaur and surely suffered from “old-timers disease.”

Through 1988, 1989 and much of 1990, PCGS was certifying thousands of coins per week and NGC was not far behind. New graders were thrown into the trenches to ease the backlog.  Although occasionally sputtering, the electronic sight-unseen market was functioning and coins were selling like tulips, until…

In early October of this year, the rare coin market fell out of bed, especially generic, certified coins. Dealers could not sustain their bids as sell orders flooded in. Resources were stretched thin. Terms for payment were extended to as long as 30 days. Bidders began to find reasons why they could not post their bids on a given day. Dealers who had borrowed heavily against their investor found themselves under tremendous pressure. Finally, the sell orders overwhelmed the dealers and the system ground to a halt. In the 1986 “Tulipmania” article I wrote:

“The MS-65 cheerleaders contend that they are providing investor liquidity through repurchase of these coins. No matter how well intentioned, this small group of dealers could never withstand a selling wave, whether the coins are encased in plastic bricks or not. And it has always been so. Witness the bursting of the South Seas Bubble, the collapse of the tulip craze and the disastrous Ponzi-style real estate and stock pyramids. In our own industry, we need only look at the fall of the 1960 small-date cents and 1950-D Jefferson nickels.”

At this writing, the two electronic coin trading networks are feverishly trying to develop a system which will protect the bidders from being inundated with material they cannot buy. At the same time they are seeking some way to prevent sinking bid prices in one coin series after another. Some dealers have given up. Others have lost their inventory to the bank (more about the bank later) as coin values sank below loan levels. Every dealer has suffered significant losses and the domino effect of dealer failure is a constant specter as rumors abound about this or that dealer’s solvency.

Not only have rare coin values collapsed, even worse, the electronic sight-unseen market mechanisms are virtually non-existent.

Why is this market collapse different from any other?

The certified coin was so darned saleable that its success astonished and overwhelmed the industry. One respected trade source estimates sales of certified coins at well over $2 billion. Since high-grade generic and low-population coins comprised much of this volume, it is not surprising that the collapse of October 1990 is of record proportions.

At whom do we point the finger of blame?

The certified coin liberated the promoter from his old constraints. No longer need he scour the coin shows and auctions for legitimate numismatic material. No more negotiating with the Bulgarian Mint to produce next year’s super-low mintage proof set. No further need to search bags of U.S. coins for the elusive triple struck 1991 horizontal mint mark. The promoter was free at last. Could the telemarketer be far behind?

Consider how potent the telemarketer had now become. Often he represented a “well-known firm” or one with an important sounding name. Never before had he such a prestigious product as a PCGS or NGC certified coin. Add to that the knock-out punch of offering the unwary a “low-population” coin.

The PCGS Population Report is issued monthly and is a compilation of the grades of all coins certified. It’s very useful and proved to be a most powerful selling tool.  What follows is an accurate re-creation of a telephone sales pitch made to an 82 year old victim. All names are fictitious.

“Hello Mr. Jones… do you remember me? I’m Robert Highpower with the Federal American National Rarest Coin Company – I’m the fellow who sold you the MS-65 Saint-Gaudens in February. I’m calling to give you a report on the rare coin market. It’s terrific! You’re still losing on the platinum Swiss coins you bought in 1988, but our research department is suggesting trading all bullion items for rare coins.

“And speaking of rare coins, I have something so special that I can’t believe it is available. This 1890 $2.50 gold Liberty PCGS MS-65 is a one-of-a-kind, finest graded specimen as shown in the PCGS Population Report, September 1990 issue. Compared to other numismatic rarities with populations of five or less that sell for six figures, the 1890 $2.50 Liberty is a steal at $18,000.”

Mr. Jones found the pitch irresistible. Four experienced coin dealers examined the coin at my office last month. All saw it as MS-64. Their highest estimate of value was $2,100. The customer tried his best to get a refund or trade for bullion type material. He was willing to take a $5,000 loss and although he was a regular customer of this famous company, no relief was forthcoming. And I know why.

When the complete history of the Great Coin Collapse of October 1990 is written, I suspect the low-population coin will be revealed as the biggest culprit.

There were many experienced coin professionals who knew that the bubble would ultimately bust on the high-grade generic coins, but I don’t recall anybody warning that the low-population coin would be the instrument of such devastation.

In my Tulipmania article I criticized the creation of a new “rare” common coin. Now we have the “rare” low-population coin with no history of numismatic scarcity or desirability. I fear the market will ultimately speak to the low-population coin and it will say, “Yes, you may be a certified one-of-a-kind or finest known, but who cares?”

Now back to the finger of blame. PCGS may be guilty of certain deficiencies, but it shouldn’t have the market collapse laid entirely upon its doorstep. I suppose that the excesses of the promoters and the telemarketers could be blamed, but that’s like blaming the vulture for its bad eating habits.

In the realm of human activity there is often the unintended consequence of an action. Nobody could have predicted exactly where the creation of PCGS would lead. Maybe the older, experienced dealers should have recognized the dangers and shown more leadership by exposing the madness. Maybe they should have spoken out. If they had, however, I’m not sure anybody would have listened.

Is the market collapse over?

I don’t think so. We may see some rallies as the dealers pour all their energies and what’s left of their resources into saving the electronic trading networks. The joker in the deck is the bank in southern California that holds the certified coins as collateral against loans. I was told by a major dealer that he saw a computer printout as thick as the Manhattan phone book listing the coin inventory the bank held.

One day, if the certified rare coin market does not rebound, the bank will be forces to liquidate these coins. Dealers I have talked with about this shudder at the prospect.

What do you do with the certified coins?

I hope that your rare coin portfolio has few low-population, high-grade generics, and that you hold predominantly real, traditional rare coins. It is not apocryphal, however, that when the police raid the brothel, the piano player is arrested, too. So it is in a market collapse – the good stuff drops along with everything else.

I don’t think this is the time to sell any rare coins. But if there is any sort of rally in the high-grade generic market, run, don’t walk to your dealer’s office and dump them. If you are buried in low-population, expensive coin, talk to the dealer who sold it to you. Plead poverty or insanity, or say your spouse ordered you to sell. Suggest he trade it for Krugerrands or a traditional rare coin, anything to get you out as whole as possible.

If you are a collector, start snooping around for bargains. You just might be able to locate that proof Trade dollar at a decent price. As dealers face mounting financial pressure, they will be force to offer genuine values.

If you are an investor, wait a bit before you jump back in. And before you consider buying a rare coin again, give it the Infamous Blumert Test: Check the coin you are considering in a 10-year-old copy of A Guide Book Of United States Coins. If there is no evidence that the coin was rare 10 years earlier, tell the guy you can’t use his coin.

If the coin you are considering passes the Blumert Test, but your own grading skills are uncertain, stick to PCGS or NGC certified coins. If the item is expensive, get a third-party expert to confirm the grading. Remember, you’re buying a coin, not plastic.

There’s an old Wall Street adage: “Don’t buy until the blood is in the street.” Well, the blood is in the street, so you better make sure it’s not yours.

...i remember those days well, panic on the bourse floor at the major shows that year..at one show i bought n sold the same half dozen rolls of gem 1950-D nickels three times with varying degrees of profitability, generic foreign bullion was a welcome n eagerly sought after vehicle to finalize trades, i do remember that acknowledged Liberty Seated n Bust rarities more or less held their own (as mentioned if rare 10-15-20 years ago was still rare) n some great opportunities presented themselves...i dont recall much activity in the early coppers but did observe some serious discussions on early gold high grade specimens, most 19th century proofs went begging...but the hobby n market muddled thru n survived maybe with some lessons learned maybe not....

[cladking]

On 7/16/2023 at 3:43 PM, World Colonial said:

So, now you're just "making up" another definition of "mass market"?  That's just what you did.

I never said the market scale was what you think it should be.  Where did you get that and why would you think it?

OK, let me try again.

In 1964 every corner coin shop had a '50-D nickels for sale.  Kids sat on school busses talking about '50-D nickels and their wheat cent collections. 

Today kids may talk about their states quarters collections but they can't go down to the coin shop and buy other clad quarters because this is a "niche market" not a "mass market".  

 

'50-D nickels are still part of a mass market, a much smaller mass market than in 1964 and you can tell because coin shops stock such coins.  They only stock coins that will probably sell and they don't try to stock all the rare Chuck e Cheese tokens or Swiss shooting Thalers.  

[cladking]

On 7/16/2023 at 3:43 PM, World Colonial said:

There was no economic incentive to hoard clad then but instead of recognizing this as obvious, you claim it isn't "natural" by ignoring the silver preference, in contradiction to thousands of years of history.

Lol.

There's a silver preference!!!  

There's also a indian cent preference, a wheat cent preference, and a 3c nickel preference.  

 

It is not natural for the coins of the realm to be overlooked and this happened all over the world for moderns. 

[cladking]

On 7/16/2023 at 3:55 PM, World Colonial said:

US collectors weren't in the 60's either, except those who bought proof and mint sets.  This era is your implied "baseline" for "normal" collecting.  

The '60's were in no way "normal" for coin collecting.  It was the perfect storm that had created the largest possible number of coin collectors but the pendulum swung and by 1995 there was the smallest possible number.  

On 7/16/2023 at 3:55 PM, World Colonial said:

You'd have others believe these "moderns" are scarcer than any number of actually noticeably older world "classics" without directly stating it.

Some of these classics are quite common so obviously some moderns are much scarcer.  

On 7/16/2023 at 4:14 PM, World Colonial said:

I'd also get rid of a coin like the 1950 NZ 6P and 1/.  Yes, I know you bought it cheap decades ago, but this type of coin isn't likely to appreciate anywhere near as much as it has from here because these are already pricey coins to most collectors.  Heritage sold an MS-66 6P for $1200 (I think) and Noble Numismatics sold an ungraded shilling "choice" for $300 AUD but that was awhile ago now.

Most such coins are difficult to sell.  Buyers should be aware of this and this is why I always and still advise new collectors to sell coins once in a while to learn their true value.  

At this point I am just collecting all these into the same safety deposit box with the hope of consigning all of them to a sale.  An old silver shilling is far easier to sell for fair value than a more valuable modern because there is highly limited demand and highly limited supply for the modern.  Hundreds of collectors are seeking the silver coin but very few the copper nickel.  

[cladking]

On 7/16/2023 at 8:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I saw this article when going through my archives.  It's about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90 by Burton Blumert, a bigtime Morgan and silver dealer back in the day.

Anyway, it mentions the 1960 Small Cents, the 1950-D Nickel, and "Low-Pop" coins and High-Grade Generics.  Thought it might be of interest.

Yes.  Indeed.

There was obviously a bubble in 1989 just as there had been many others over the years.  There were dealers buying dip in 55 gallon drums!  The "perfect" morgan dollars I had sought in the late-'70's were selling at prices far beyond the scarcity of the coins.  Some dates were exceeding common as gems but they still brought hundreds of dollars.  Walkers that had never been on anyone's radar were being pushed and Gems were trading at very high prices.  By 1989 most US coins even including Ike dollars began to hold somebody's interest.  

I had extreme doubt that grading could be standardized well enough to attract investors.  While it might be done with different definitions investors would not be good for the hobby.  Collectibles and things of beauty in general simply lose their allure with any attempt to be made fungible.  The foundation of collecting is something with which tinkering can damage.  

[samclemen3991]

I noticed some discussion here about what modern day kids are or are not doing when it comes to coin collecting.  My wife and I recently went on a round of visits to what she calls antique stores and I call junk festivals.

I was quite surprised to find them selling coins.  (Yes, I expected the usual glut of Wheat cents and damaged silver coins being fosted off as rare coins at ridiculous prices.)  What I did not expect was that two of the stores had the old turn table display cases that were a fixture in Woolworths and other Department stores 50 years ago.  To my surprise both stores featured State Quarters in their case.  What is more, while we were there, over a half dozen different kids (Under 18 to me) came in with specific shopping lists.  Some quizzed the owners about specific dates, but I couldn't even get close enough to check the prices because there was a line to see the case in both stores.

A third store that was a congregation of vendors, each selling what ever they wanted , had two large cases  that was filled with State Quarter folders and a huge number of coins in 2x2 holders.  
We spent more than an hour in that store and I never got a chance to make a closer examination of that set up.   At all times there were 2 or more kids in that slot (And I do mean slot, it was a set of two glass cases facing each other and about 18 inches apart.)

I don't know about anyone else, but I was stunned to find so many kids in junk stores on a beautiful Saturday.  I live in the middle of fly over country and never expected to encounter ANY kind of coin collectors in such an enviroment.  Makes me wonder just what all my be going on out there in the wide sky blue and few people know.  James

 

 

 

[VKurtB]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:42 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I noticed some discussion here about what modern day kids are or are not doing when it comes to coin collecting.  My wife and I recently went on a round of visits to what she calls antique stores and I call junk festivals.

I was quite surprised to find them selling coins.  (Yes, I expected the usual glut of Wheat cents and damaged silver coins being fosted off as rare coins at ridiculous prices.)  What I did not expect was that two of the stores had the old turn table display cases that were a fixture in Woolworths and other Department stores 50 years ago.  To my surprise both stores featured State Quarters in their case.  What is more, while we were there, over a half dozen different kids (Under 18 to me) came in with specific shopping lists.  Some quizzed the owners about specific dates, but I couldn't even get close enough to check the prices because there was a line to see the case in both stores.

A third store that was a congregation of vendors, each selling what ever they wanted , had two large cases  that was filled with State Quarter folders and a huge number of coins in 2x2 holders.  
We spent more than an hour in that store and I never got a chance to make a closer examination of that set up.   At all times there were 2 or more kids in that slot (And I do mean slot, it was a set of two glass cases facing each other and about 18 inches apart.)

I don't know about anyone else, but I was stunned to find so many kids in junk stores on a beautiful Saturday.  I live in the middle of fly over country and never expected to encounter ANY kind of coin collectors in such an enviroment.  Makes me wonder just what all my be going on out there in the wide sky blue and few people know.  James

 

 

 

There is no coin MARKET (singular). There are quite a few various coin marketS. And they intersect extremely little. The live in-person market, driven by shows, is one. The live auction market is another. The online auction market is another. The online dealer market is yet another. There are others. None of them acts like any of the others. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:42 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I noticed some discussion here about what modern day kids are or are not doing when it comes to coin collecting.  My wife and I recently went on a round of visits to what she calls antique stores and I call junk festivals.

I was quite surprised to find them selling coins.  (Yes, I expected the usual glut of Wheat cents and damaged silver coins being fosted off as rare coins at ridiculous prices.)  What I did not expect was that two of the stores had the old turn table display cases that were a fixture in Woolworths and other Department stores 50 years ago.  To my surprise both stores featured State Quarters in their case.  What is more, while we were there, over a half dozen different kids (Under 18 to me) came in with specific shopping lists.  Some quizzed the owners about specific dates, but I couldn't even get close enough to check the prices because there was a line to see the case in both stores.

A third store that was a congregation of vendors, each selling what ever they wanted , had two large cases  that was filled with State Quarter folders and a huge number of coins in 2x2 holders.  
We spent more than an hour in that store and I never got a chance to make a closer examination of that set up.   At all times there were 2 or more kids in that slot (And I do mean slot, it was a set of two glass cases facing each other and about 18 inches apart.)

I don't know about anyone else, but I was stunned to find so many kids in junk stores on a beautiful Saturday.  I live in the middle of fly over country and never expected to encounter ANY kind of coin collectors in such an enviroment.  Makes me wonder just what all my be going on out there in the wide sky blue and few people know.  James

 

 

 

Very interesting.  Thank you.

There has been a parabolic explosion in interest in coins in general and moderns in particular for quite a few years now.  You can see it everywhere with things like coin folders for circulating coinage being sold in book stores.  You can't get the coins to fill these folders in any coin shops but the folders and albums seem to be selling like hot cakes.  You can also see it in the explosion of moderns in the hobby being sold at retail prices.  Very few coins sell at retail and haven't since the market crashed in 1965.  You can see it in the explosion of interest in social sites that talk about coins.  These are mostly young people.  I've stayed out of this for the main part because my influence does not seem to necessarily be positive to these markets.  Certainly I've made precious little gains in improving perceptions in established collectors. A few things I've championed may have actually been detrimental.  

 

But the bottom line is what I've told World Colonial for many years now: Older collectors have a very unnatural hatred for modern coins and, on average, younger collectors will not shun coins simply because they are clad ore base metal to the degree we do.   Younger collectors will be far more likely to collect any metallic composition.  

 

As soon as the last of the mint sets disappear it will be a whole new ball game because these constitute virtually the entire supply of most US moderns and especially clad.  Long term trends have a way of playing out.   

[cladking]

On 7/17/2023 at 10:08 AM, VKurtB said:

There is no coin MARKET (singular). There are quite a few various coin marketS. And they intersect extremely little. The live in-person market, driven by shows, is one. The live auction market is another. The online auction market is another. The online dealer market is yet another. There are others. None of them acts like any of the others. 

I don't really disagree per se but I would suggest that coin shops have always been a microcosm of what popularly sells in the hobby as well as the point where most coins reenter the hobby after being collected for a lifetime.  

While niche markets are not serviced by coin shops except through wholesale selling to specialized dealers these shops do very much tie the hobby together and virtually define it.  

Of course this isn't as true as it was even ten or twenty years ago because most shops have a very large online presence.  

Edited July 17, 2023 by cladking

[samclemen3991]

Thanks for the feedback.  I would have to say though, I think it would be a bit of a stretch to say that what I ran across was a coin market.  I got more of a sense that they were all on some sort of scavenger hunt. There seemed to be a lot of people with very specific dates they were looking for, and yes, everything was being filmed, logged on their phones or I guess added to their inventory.  I never heard a single kid mention grade.  Just wish I had brought my eyeglasses that day.   It kills me I couldn't find out what kind of prices were being paid.

I think you know a lot more about moderns then I will ever know Cladking.  I saw numerous mint sets for sale, but I never saw one sell.  Quarters seemed to be the focus.  There was a fellow of around 25-30, with long stringy blond hair sitting on a stool in the back of the narrow slot shop. I would have loved to had a chance to talk to him.  As fate would have it, I was celebrating my 42nd wedding anniversary 25 days late due to work demands.  All I could do was steal glances and over hear when chance permitted.  James

[World Colonial]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:57 AM, cladking said:

The '60's were in no way "normal" for coin collecting.  It was the perfect storm that had created the largest possible number of coin collectors but the pendulum swung and by 1995 there was the smallest possible number.  

The 60's are your implied baseline for "normal" collecting.  How else could you possibly come up with your price expectations for US moderns and world "moderns"?  Do you remember your posts?

On 7/17/2023 at 9:57 AM, cladking said:

Some of these classics are quite common so obviously some moderns are much scarcer.  

Yes, some, as in a very low proportion by any sensible standard.  Where world "moderns" are scarcer, 95% to 99% of the time, it's going to be by comparing coins from two different series from two different countries where one is not the alternative or competes with the other.  I'm sure some "moderns" from obscure countries with no organized collecting and low mintages due to population and economics are scarcer versus from developed earlier coinage.  There is no significance in that, as the lopsided proportion of these "moderns" has a (very) low preference with no basis to expect any future difference.  This is self-evident from collector motivation.

Edited July 17, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:39 AM, cladking said:

In 1964 every corner coin shop had a '50-D nickels for sale.  Kids sat on school busses talking about '50-D nickels and their wheat cent collections. 

At least relative to the population, coin collecting was a larger scale low budget recreational activity in the 60's.  There were far fewer recreational activities for the recreational collector's time and money.  Your particular account is also anecdotal.

On 7/17/2023 at 9:39 AM, cladking said:

Today kids may talk about their states quarters collections but they can't go down to the coin shop and buy other clad quarters because this is a "niche market" not a "mass market".  

They can buy US moderns all day long on eBay.  Why would hardly anyone waste their time going to a retail outlet for that?  Your expectation is absurd.

On 7/17/2023 at 9:39 AM, cladking said:

'50-D nickels are still part of a mass market, a much smaller mass market than in 1964 and you can tell because coin shops stock such coins.  They only stock coins that will probably sell and they don't try to stock all the rare Chuck e Cheese tokens or Swiss shooting Thalers.  

No one has to buy the coins most collectors buy at a coin shop. How can you not understand that?

[World Colonial]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:42 AM, cladking said:

Lol.

There's a silver preference!!!  

There's also a indian cent preference, a wheat cent preference, and a 3c nickel preference.  

Has nothing to do with what I told you.

The silver preference is a generic one which collectors inherit from the external culture due to the relative price in the commodity markets.  You don't think it should exist, which is why you've told me for 10 years including in this post that perception isn't "natural".

On 7/17/2023 at 9:42 AM, cladking said:

It is not natural for the coins of the realm to be overlooked and this happened all over the world for moderns. 

This "natural" claim, you just "made it up".  It has absolutely no basis in reality.  What you describe as "overlooked" is everyone else refusing to agree with you to collect these coins in the numbers and at the prices you insist they should.  That's why I told you that your baseline for "normal" is 1960's US collecting.

This coinage has the lowest collective aggregate preference due to the coin attributes.  That's a fact.  This includes the relative scarcity where you claim these coins are "scarce" or "rare" due to your arbitrary quality standards, unrepresentative personal experience, and application of US practiced specializations which generally have a low to virtually nonexistent correlation to collector preferences.

Here are some of the similarities between the 60's and since:

One:  Collectors now and then collected their circulating change mostly at FV.  Most circulating classics at the time sold for FV or immaterial premiums, just as US circulating moderns do now. 

Two:  Collectors overwhelmingly preferred classics circulating in 1965, just as they still do now.

Three: In 1965, the public didn’t like having their coinage debased.  That’s why they hoarded silver.  They didn’t hoard clad, as there was no financial motive to do so.  The public and collectors overwhelmingly still prefer silver now, just as they did then. 

Concurrently, US circulating moderns were and are being saved in “high” quality in large numbers.  No US circulating modern is remotely even close to being scarce in “high” quality, except under US criteria which is the most liberal in use.  Since at least 1999 with the SQ program, US moderns are being saved in at least equivalent number in equivalent quality to post-1933 classics.

Here are some of the differences:

One:  Perception toward (semi) key dates was due to a communication limitation, not any actual scarcity or rarity.  These coins primarily retain unusually high prices due to prior perception and the belief in the ability to recover the purchase price at resale.  The internet has removed this limitation and exposed just how common this coinage actually is.  No US circulating modern will ever be viewed similarly, except due to specialization.

Two: The “hobby” has been substantially financialized, first starting in the 1970’s with the gold and silver price spike and then in the 1980’s as a result of TPG.  Despite this financialization, the price variances between most recent US classics and moderns are financially immaterial. 

Three: There was limited if any specialization then.  My primary explanation for this behavioral change is that modern communication has eliminated the challenge of collecting this coinage (both modern and classic) in the traditional format. 

[World Colonial]

On 7/17/2023 at 2:37 PM, cladking said:

But the bottom line is what I've told World Colonial for many years now: Older collectors have a very unnatural hatred for modern coins and, on average, younger collectors will not shun coins simply because they are clad ore base metal to the degree we do.   Younger collectors will be far more likely to collect any metallic composition.  

Your "hate" claim has no basis in reality.  It's something else you just "made up".  Collector preferences also have virtually nothing if anything at all to do with your demographic claim.  Collectors have been collecting base metal coinage since the beginning of coin collecting.  If collectors "hated" base metal coinage, they would "hate" older base metal coinage.  No one can claim that, not even you.  Collectors never hated US large cents or other similar coins.  

What you call “hating” is just others disagreeing with you by not sharing your inflated opinion of the merits for this coinage.  You refuse to accept that this coinage has the lowest aggregate preference due to the coin attributes. US moderns and the world coinage you call "modern" collectively have the least preferred attributes.  That's why it has the lowest collective aggregate preference.

Hundreds of thousands to millions have been buying this coinage each and every year over my entire life since 1965.  It's just at prices which do not satisfy your personal preference. 

You can’t find a single collector who “hates” their collection   It’s as believable as you hating yours.  No matter how you phrase this claim, it’s not true.  If others actually hate their collection or the coins they bought, so do you.  No one does that, including you.  No one has to buy these coins or pay the prices you think it should be worth to disprove your claim either.

[World Colonial]

On 7/17/2023 at 11:08 AM, VKurtB said:

There is no coin MARKET (singular). There are quite a few various coin marketS. And they intersect extremely little. The live in-person market, driven by shows, is one. The live auction market is another. The online auction market is another. The online dealer market is yet another. There are others. None of them acts like any of the others. 

Agree and it's also more than that.

It's evident that collectors do not collect in a vacuum but there are common evident collecting habits:

1) The vast majority of collectors prefer the coins from their home country or country or origin.

2) The vast majority of collectors are ignorant of the existence of most coins, and they cannot buy what they don't know exists.

3) Those who are not strictly recreational collectors will pay prices they otherwise would not, if they believe they can recover enough of their cost at resale.

4) Most collectors will not even attempt to collect a coin or series if they deem it too hard to buy or if it's not available in their minimum quality.

[VKurtB]

On 7/17/2023 at 6:52 PM, World Colonial said:

The vast majority of collectors are ignorant of the existence of most coins, and they cannot buy what they don't know exists.

If that is true, then the hobby is infinitely worse off than I imagined.

[zadok]

On 7/18/2023 at 6:01 PM, VKurtB said:

If that is true, then the hobby is infinitely worse off than I imagined.

...yea but sorta true...a few have limited exposure, interest n resources to explore foreign coinage n then only in specific areas of interest..if u laid out 100 foreign coins at virtually any US coin show i doubt that 10% could id 20% of the coins...most of the newer generation would be hard pressed to even id the counties let alone the coinage....

[VKurtB]

On 7/18/2023 at 6:56 PM, zadok said:

...yea but sorta true...a few have limited exposure, interest n resources to explore foreign coinage n then only in specific areas of interest..if u laid out 100 foreign coins at virtually any US coin show i doubt that 10% could id 20% of the coins...most of the newer generation would be hard pressed to even id the counties let alone the coinage....

Well, they oughta attend major coin shows then. It’s a skill they TEACH at the ANA Kids Zone. It’s not ALL Treasure Trivia. Hey, maybe a bunch of members here ought to spend time at an ANA Kids Zone. They might learn something. But naw, education is too time consuming, right? Need to get out there and find “discovery coin errors”, right? Muh. 

Sorry, nobody deserves to get ripped off by not having knowledge. But not having knowledge ALWAYS HAS BEEN the best way of getting ripped off in coins. Education doesn’t really COST, it PAYS. And there ain’t no “coin cops” any more, if there ever were.

Edited July 19, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/17/2023 at 5:56 PM, World Colonial said:

The 60's are your implied baseline for "normal" collecting. 

No.  The '60's were not normal.  There were far too many collectors collecting far to many recent dates in too high condition and in too large of numbers. This is why there are so many "fallen stars" of the era.

I do think the number of older established collectors and what most of them were collecting was "normal" and I might be wrong here but Mehl popularized coins decades earlier. They were mostly collecting old US coins by date and mint.  

Today old coins from the '60'ds and '70's is hated.  This is not normal.

 

[cladking]

On 7/17/2023 at 6:11 PM, World Colonial said:

There were far fewer recreational activities for the recreational collector's time and money.

This is irrelevant.  It matter only how much demand there is for some specific coin and this tends to be proportional to the number of collectors.  

There are exploding numbers of collectors today but they are not behaving like  established collectors in 1964.  They are more like the kids who were collecting from circulation (clads) and new coins (states quarters etc).  

On 7/17/2023 at 6:11 PM, World Colonial said:

They can buy US moderns all day long on eBay.  Why would hardly anyone waste their time going to a retail outlet for that?  Your expectation is absurd.

I don't expect anything except all trends to eventually return to equilibrium; to normal.  Obviously like swinging pendulums I do not expect them to stay there.  

I expect most rare coins to eventually have premiums.  

On 7/17/2023 at 6:28 PM, World Colonial said:

This coinage has the lowest collective aggregate preference due to the coin attributes. 

I'm referring to US coins. 

Historically US coins have always had the highest demand in the world.  

On 7/17/2023 at 6:46 PM, World Colonial said:

Your "hate" claim has no basis in reality. 

So people call clad debased garbage that are like Chuck-ee-Cheeze tokens and that are more common than grains of sands on the beach in every grade because they just like the coins and don't want competition collecting them all!!!  \

You can't imagine the level of hatred for these coins in 1965 and they killed coin collecting and replaced every coin in circulation with coins that each looked alike.  It was so bad that by 1995 after decades of gaining new collectors the hobby nearly died almost altogether.  It nearly came to look like you believe it should with a few gentleman collectors in their study looking at financially significant coins.  

I believe coin collecting is the greatest hobby in the world because it is so broad and so diverse.  I lover seeing newer collectors who are more diverse and spanning every spectrum of humanity including sexes, nationalities, races, religions, and ages.  Except for high grade rarities almost everyone can collect any coins they choose. The only limitation is how much work they're willing to do and now days with the net they have far more access to far more coins.