Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[cladking]

Quote

We can all agree that specialization/marketing/market grading have all created to a "false scarcity" for certain coins....which combined with the Internet and registry lists....and online auctions....and CAC.....have raised prices in the aggregate and exponentially higher in the top grades. 

I don't believe it's this simple.  The reason is that in most cases it is far far easier and much cheaper to buy graded coins than to find them yourself.  

I recently sent off what might have been the finest '87 cent struck.  It was PL, perfect, brand new dies, full strike, and no visible scratches.  I've never seen anything close to it for the date.  For some reason it came back far off the money.  The irony here is that i didn't want to sell it in the first place because it's a $100 even as a pop top.  I thought there was a chance it would grade even higher.  Why poke through possibly thousands of mint sets looking for a better one?  

 

Many of the pop top moderns are grossly undervalued also.  If the buyers of these coins had to do all that work they might not even collect them.  If I had it to do over I might not have looked for things like high grade zincolns.  Oh sure I have some great rarities that should be appreciated some day but that day is not now.  I'm going to just have to leave my heirs a few safety deposit boxes full of grossly undervalued Gems.  

[J P M]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

On average, how much more are you paying for 66's vs. 65/64's ?

64 to 65 is $10 to $20 but from 65 to 66 can be half of the price more.

On 7/12/2023 at 8:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What's happened to your targeted coin prices over the last few years

I see bidding prices going way over the real value of the coin. I think there are a lot of new collectors after Covid pushing prices up and they don't really know what they are buying they just want to buy coins and spending money does not factor in to play.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:43 PM, World Colonial said:

My inference is that the internet accounts for much of what I wrote in my earlier posts. This is what makes most coins so much easier to buy versus the past.  Collectors mostly don't like to collect coins or series with abnormally low availability, but they also often want something of a challenge which is where specialization and collecting by grade label comes in.

I used to like astronomy and coins when I was young.  I lost interest in astronomy because I could never find anything in the skies....and I lost interest in coins because I wasn't properly exposed and didn't know others who shared my interest, couldn't attend coin shows, no local coin shop, etc.

Today, I'm bigtime into astronomy because the Internet and computerized go-to scopes have made pursuing the hobby super-easy.  Ditto for gathering knowledge about coins and actually being able to buy quality and NOT worry (for the most part) about getting stuck with a lemon.

Edited July 13, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:56 PM, cladking said:

Oh sure I have some great rarities that should be appreciated some day but that day is not now.  I'm going to just have to leave my heirs a few safety deposit boxes full of grossly undervalued Gems.  

You make some good points, and I like your enthusiasm ....but when you are insistent that your coins are "grossly" undervalued and deserve much higher prices....unless you can point to specific anomalies that will reverse over time or something that will cause a surge of demand down the line...I'm not sure you are standing on solid ground.

Now...I think my Saints are undervalued because I believe within the next 10 years that gold will go to at least $3,000 an ounce and maybe even $5,000.  So it will drag up commons and semi-scarce coins that are MS-65 and MS-66.  So maybe I will double or triple my money (or more) if my gold prediction comes to fruition.

However...if gold is pretty much stuck around $2,000 give-or-take....unless we get lots of domestic Saint buyers who push up the premiums on those coins relative to the gold content, then maybe my coins will be a bit lower, the same, or maybe 20-25% (or less) higher in price.

Ask yourself if your scenarios for higher prices do NOT materialize, what happens to their prices.  It quantifies the downside.

Edited July 13, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:57 PM, J P M said:

64 to 65 is $10 to $20 but from 65 to 66 can be half of the price more.

So not big $$$ in absolute terms, maybe another $20 you pay for the 66's ?  But I'll bet if you went to MS-67 then you'd have to pay 3-5x as much for many coins, right ?

On 7/12/2023 at 8:57 PM, J P M said:

I see bidding prices going way over the real value of the coin. I think there are a lot of new collectors after Covid pushing prices up and they don't really know what they are buying they just want to buy coins and spending money does not factor in to play.  

The PCGS 3000 Index bottomed in early-2020 with Covid.  Since then, it's been a bull market in coins.  However, NFTs and the bubble in sports card prices and other stuff that went to Nutso Land in 2020-22 have receeded as free $$$ from the government and higher interest rates have pinched buyers.

Should be interesting if the rate of increase for U.S. coins including yours starts to slow and maybe even decline.

[J P M]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:13 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But I'll bet if you went to MS-67 then you'd have to pay 3-5x as much for many coins, right ?

Yes 66 to 67 is the big jump

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:05 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

but when you are insistent that your coins are "grossly" undervalued and deserve much higher prices....unless you can point to specific anomalies that will reverse over time or something that will cause a surge of demand down the line

There are countless moderns that are rare but cheap.  For years I pointed to Soviet 15, 20, and 50 kopek coins from the '60's and '70's that listed for $1 or less. Now many of them are hundreds and hundreds of dollars.  They were hard to find because they were scarce but you could find them because no one paid them any attention.  Indian coins have finally started moving with many of them up hundreds fold.  But there are still a lot opportunities here.  Many of these coins from the '50 to '70's are very poorly made and rarely appear as Gems.  It used to be a lot easier to find high grades because there were more coins to check but even BU's now are a few dollars each.  

Every country has overlooked rarities in its moderns.  People see low prices and assume the coins are common.  But things like 20c and 50c Fijian coins from the '70's to '90's are not at all common.  Most moderns are only "common" if they appear in mint sets and most mint sets had mintages of only a few thousand. Attrition on the sets is very high so you can imagine how tough the circulation issues are.

I believe a very high proportion of the Gem moderns seen in the marketplace trading for low prices are from mint sets. These mint set Gems are sometimes in series that are poorly made so even common date Gems might have tremendous potential.  

I believe high denomination Japanese coins are scarce.  The coins are mostly low valued due to a nearly 30 year stagnation of their economy but this won't last forever.  Many European, African, and South American moderns are grossly undervalued.  There used to be a ship that set sail from S America to Japan every month laden with coins to make refrigerators and appliances.  Many Central American coins are elusive as well but these are harder to identify.  

The scarcest tend to be high denomination coins because these saw extensive circulation and then most were redeemed when the governments recalled them.  Many are getting quite long in the tooth.  New Zealand moderns began in 1947 and they can be quite scarce especially as Gems.  

Ya can't swing a dead cat in any country without hitting numerous scarcities and most are still unappreciated.  

[cladking]

Quote

Ask yourself if your scenarios for higher prices do NOT materialize, what happens to their prices.  It quantifies the downside.

I like gold a lot for insurance and keep mine in the form of numismatically interesting coins. When the prices goes up I trade nice coins for even nicer coins that will retain their value even if gold drops.  

I like silver as a bet on the ingenuity and resourcefulness of man.  I also keep my silver in numismatically interesting coins.  

But I like moderns as a bet on  history and nature.  Rare coins will increase eventually.  I have a lot of blood, sweat, and tears in my moderns but remarkably little money.  I spend more on storage in safety deposit boxes than the cost in many cases.  

[GoldFinger1969]

Just as an aside since it indirectly impacts coins and collectibles....I saw something on a morning show today that some digital Ape something or other that Justin Bieber bought for $1.3 MM at the height of the NFT craze was today worth like $50,000, down 95% or so.

So when a coin you like is up an extra $50 or $200 in a few weeks or months, put that in perspective ! 

[zadok]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1913 Liberty Nickel....1927-D Saint.....must be others with <20 coins in total population, right ?

...1913 V-nickel not regular coinage issue, ditto 1894-S barber dime...1927-D saint legitimately rare, although approx 15 known...not all available though....

[VKurtB]

The ANA's Exhibit Judging Criteria do NOT count "condition rarity" as rare at all. Rarity means total number of pieces available, condition be damned. There is a judging criteria for gaudy grades on mundane issues: it's called (gasp!) Condition. Rarity is judged as if all known pieces were of the same condition. Unique to 9 known gets you a 10 in rarity, 10-99 gets you a 9. 100-999 gets you an 8, etc. The rarest piece in the exhibit controls that score. I have at least 6 "Top Pop" coins, but while they might get (and should) get gaudy Condition scores, at least 4 of them are worth next to nothing in Rarity. They are classic condition rarities. Exhibiting AIN'T LIKE REGISTRY SETS!!!!!

Edited July 13, 2023 by VKurtB

[Jason Abshier]

Commemorative classic half dollars was a fine example of hostile market in early to mid 80’s …. Tons and tons of money was spent and wasted on these “red-hot” coins to watch the market all sudden collapse and sudden huge price drops ! Today these coins can be easily purchased and assemble in a collection 95% of them are in affordable price range from grade MS63-MS66 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/13/2023 at 11:46 AM, VKurtB said:

The ANA's Exhibit Judging Criteria do NOT count "condition rarity" as rare at all. Rarity means total number of pieces available, condition be damned. There is a judging criteria for gaudy grades on mundane issues: it's called (gasp!) Condition. Rarity is judged as if all known pieces were of the same condition. Unique to 9 known gets you a 10 in rarity, 10-99 gets you a 9. 100-999 gets you an 8, etc. The rarest piece in the exhibit controls that score. I have at least 6 "Top Pop" coins, but while they might get (and should) get gaudy Condition scores, at least 4 of them are worth next to nothing in Rarity. They are classic condition rarities. Exhibiting AIN'T LIKE REGISTRY SETS!!!!!

I understand this perspective, but if the Total Pops were not larger with different grades....our hobby would be as popular as art collecting. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/13/2023 at 12:13 PM, Jason Abshier said:

Commemorative classic half dollars was a fine example of hostile market in early to mid 80’s …. Tons and tons of money was spent and wasted on these “red-hot” coins to watch the market all sudden collapse and sudden huge price drops ! Today these coins can be easily purchased and assemble in a collection 95% of them are in affordable price range from grade MS63-MS66 

I believe commemoratives were the only coins to go up in the 1980's...everything else was dragged down from the 1980 Bubble in coins and PMs.

This false belief in commemoratives helped lead them higher and higher and when they finally got creamed after the 1989 Coin Bubble, they've never come close to eclipsing their old highs.

[Jason Abshier]

On 7/13/2023 at 12:20 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I believe commemoratives were the only coins to go up in the 1980's...everything else was dragged down from the 1980 Bubble in coins and PMs.

This false belief in commemoratives helped lead them higher and higher and when they finally got creamed after the 1989 Coin Bubble, they've never come close to eclipsing their old highs.

It was an interesting market for sure , they shared their glory in market history as for folks who shelled out the high dollars for them back then ? OUCH!!! 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/13/2023 at 12:27 PM, Jason Abshier said:

It was an interesting market for sure , they shared their glory in market history as for folks who shelled out the high dollars for them back then ? OUCH!!! 

I'm not sure why commemoratives did so well for a decade.  Partly $$$ flowed out of other stuff and I suspect the supply of commemoratives were relatively low.  The TPGs maybe drove pricing, too.  Maybe folks thought like gold and silver and coins made of those metals that went up 10-20 fold, that commemoratives would also go up 10-20 fold.  Probably were infomercials that I never saw or forgot about, too.

[Jason Abshier]

On 7/13/2023 at 12:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not sure why commemoratives did so well for a decade.  Partly $$$ flowed out of other stuff and I suspect the supply of commemoratives were relatively low.  The TPGs maybe drove pricing, too.  Maybe folks thought like gold and silver and coins made of those metals that went up 10-20 fold, that commemoratives would also go up 10-20 fold.  Probably were infomercials that I never saw or forgot about, too.

Most of them are low mintage , sadly a lot of them toned rather ugly today they need a good dipping , however there’s some stunning toned commemorative half dollars also some very high grades MS67 that still pull premiums but the collector’s crowd interest dropped over the years just about every dealer now a days have some classic commemoratives for sale they sometimes just sit in inventory for long time never sell well … I read a articles back then dealers and collectors were desperately looking for the original boxes that came along with these coins when they were issued , which we rarely see today the original boxes what happened to them ? I have no idea I hardly ever see a original commemorative boxes for sale … again I’m not really looking for them anyways 

You are correct the market crashed right around when TPG was taking off with plastic slab technology probably why they may have seen a major spike in prices but dealers couldn’t get enough of them to supply demands … why such a sudden demand ? I don’t know maybe another member on here who experienced buy/selling in that market at the time can shed light on it 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/13/2023 at 1:10 PM, Jason Abshier said:

You are correct the market crashed right around when TPG was taking off with plastic slab technology probably why they may have seen a major spike in prices but dealers couldn’t get enough of them to supply demands … why such a sudden demand ? I don’t know maybe another member on here who experienced buy/selling in that market at the time can shed light on it 

If you are talking about the 1989 Coin Bubble bursting, that I do know. 

Prices simply got nuts for anything that was considered a generic or liquid coin that might be traded on the electronic dealer networks and/or bought by the coming Wall Street investment funds.  Saints and Morgans, just to use some examples, pretty much tripled with no increase in gold or silver's price from 1986-89.

When it became apparent that the $$$ wouldn't be coming in for thousands of the coins -- I think at the May/June Central States Coin Show, to be exact -- prices collapsed.  If Saints traded at the premium to gold today that they did then, an MS-65 1924 Saint would cost $12-$15,000 !!!! 

Edited July 13, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But how many coins in the U.S. or globally had virtually ALL of their mintage destroyed and not existing today ?  Probably very few...maybe limited mintage coins and/or those that were not melted down if not made of gold or silver, which most coins were made out of probably most of the time.

Just because most don't like the outcome doesn't change it.  

There is a difference in perception of scarcity or rarity, but that doesn't change the number (outcome). 2+2 always = 4, never something else.

On 7/12/2023 at 8:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I get what you are saying about "rare" and "scarce" but I think it's a matter of semantics.  The 1927-D Saint is a rare coin, only about 7-13 coins are known to survive.  But Saints in the aggregate are NOT scarce so should the 1927-D be called "rare" or "scarce" ?  How about the 1924 Saint....in MS-68 condition ?

The coin date is an actual coin attribute.  The TPG label isn't.  "MS-68" isn't a coin attribute.  The label "MS-68" isn't specific to any coin.  It's usually rare but the coins in it virtually never are.

Absolute number remaining is the traditional standard of rarity.

However, since it doesn't necessarily coincide with how most collectors collect the coin or series in more recent years, that's why US derived TPL label rarity has current perception.

A far more meaningful standard reflective of how most collectors collect is "acceptable quality" or "high quality".

On 7/12/2023 at 8:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Type of coin....year struck...Mint....condition....the more qualifiers or filters you add, the more "rare" something becomes potentially.

Yes, which is why it's actually usually a contrivance.

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:56 PM, cladking said:

Many of the pop top moderns are grossly undervalued also.  

No, that's what you think.  Aside from exaggerating the significance of minor quality differences as US collecting does generically, you either don't know the actual prices or compare it to even more ridiculously overpriced "top pop" 1933-1964 US coinage.

It's accurate to state that US moderns are frequently or usually a lot less expensive versus this US coinage as a "top pop".  Both are absurdly overpriced for the actual collectible merits, but you don't want to hear that.  Many "top pops" in both don't have low counts for condition census coins anyway.  Many dates have multiples, as in dozens and sometimes more.

On 7/12/2023 at 8:56 PM, cladking said:

 If the buyers of these coins had to do all that work they might not even collect them.  If I had it to do over I might not have looked for things like high grade zincolns.  Oh sure I have some great rarities that should be appreciated some day but that day is not now.  I'm going to just have to leave my heirs a few safety deposit boxes full of grossly undervalued Gems.  

This is irrelevant to the price.  Yes, almost none of these buyers will actually look for the coin "in the wild" themself, but that's not why they usually pay these prices.  It's either almost entirely due to:

A) They are buying registry points or (attempting to) buy(ing) their registry ranking.

B) They believe they can recover most, all, or more of their money back at resale.

Only a tiny minority pay huge price spreads for "top pops" versus one or a few TPG numbers lower because they think the coin with the higher number on the label is so much better.  (No, US collecting did not experience a collective epiphany in 1986.)  The price difference is completely disproportionate to the merits as a collectible, and they might not even be able to grade to TPG standards independently anyway.

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 PM, cladking said:

There are countless moderns that are rare but cheap. 

World "moderns" is either a US centric term or one you just made up.  I've never heard or read anyone else using it but regardless, it doesn't reflect how anyone collects, except at "junk bin" prices.  It's a financial limitation, not a collector preference.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 PM, cladking said:

For years I pointed to Soviet 15, 20, and 50 kopek coins from the '60's and '70's that listed for $1 or less. Now many of them are hundreds and hundreds of dollars.  They were hard to find because they were scarce but you could find them because no one paid them any attention.  Indian coins have finally started moving with many of them up hundreds fold. 

No, the coins were hard to find because you were looking for it prior to the internet when communication limitations made most non-US coinage hard(er) to find.  I've told you multiple times that this coinage isn't hard to buy on eBay, if you would look there.  The 1970-1972 has higher prices and less availability but I've seen these multiple times too (yes, in "gem") in my limited searches.  The other dates are easy or very easy to find, in multiple on the same search.

The catalog list price isn't an indication of the actual market value, then or now.  It's "made up".

Yes, the value has gone up a lot (proportionately) since you first looked for it, because these coins were issued only a few years prior to when you started looking for it.  It should also be obvious that coins issued as recently as 15 years prior to your searches (per your prior post) weren't rare at the time, unless the mintage was abnormally low.  Certainly not from a major country like the USSR.  Any such inference is absurd.

The coins also aren't valued as you imply now either.  Look at completed eBay sales like I have, a large "discount" to a low fraction of the NGC World Coin Price Guide.  It varies by set or coin but among the worst are the 1973 15k/20k and 1976 20K.  The 1976 20K lists at $450 or $475 as a MS-65.  It's worth $20 to $50 going by actual sales.  It also isn't scarce.  It's really common.  Dozens of Mint sets and Franklin Mint "Coin Sets of all Nations" sets the last time Iooked.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 PM, cladking said:

I believe a very high proportion of the Gem moderns seen in the marketplace trading for low prices are from mint sets. These mint set Gems are sometimes in series that are poorly made so even common date Gems might have tremendous potential.  

Until more recent decades, there was no internet and less travel.  In major collecting markets, most of the coins are almost certainly held locally or in the bordering countries.  That's where the coins circulate.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 PM, cladking said:

I believe high denomination Japanese coins are scarce.  The coins are mostly low valued due to a nearly 30 year stagnation of their economy but this won't last forever. 

There is no shortage of Japanese collectors who can afford to pay a lot more for these coins, if they choose.  You keep on repeating this fallacy no matter how many times I correct you.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 PM, cladking said:

Many European, African, and South American moderns are grossly undervalued.  There used to be a ship that set sail from S America to Japan every month laden with coins to make refrigerators and appliances.  Many Central American coins are elusive as well but these are harder to identify.  

No, these coins aren't undervalued as you claim, really. 

There is no local organized collecting in hardly any African country and virtually no demand for it virtually anywhere else.  Why would collectors elsewhere want it at the prices you think it should be worth?  The only one I know directly with any meaningful scale is South Africa and these "moderns" are definitely not "undervalued". 

In Europe, collectors have over 2000 years of coinage to choose from and there is no basis to claim they will pay "high" prices for coinage with such a low preference which is more common than most of the predecessor coinage.  (No, earlier 20th century European coinage does not have equivalent preference to comparable period US coinage.  It was never the focus of collecting.) 

Same outcome for South America.  Most of these "moderns" aren't scarcer than the predecessor coinage (that's a fact), have a (very) low preference, there is limited to no local organized collecting either, and the prices of earlier coinage aren't that high much of the time anyway.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 PM, cladking said:

  New Zealand moderns began in 1947 and they can be quite scarce especially as Gems.  

Some earlier base metal New Zealand coinage is actually legitimately at least somewhat scarce in high quality, but these coins aren't moderns.  NZ collectors didn't and don't arbitrarily distinguish between silver and base metal as you claim or imply.  If they did, they would have had virtually nothing local to collect, since their coinage only dates to 1933.

[VKurtB]

On 7/13/2023 at 11:19 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I understand this perspective, but if the Total Pops were not larger with different grades....our hobby would be as popular as art collecting. 

So wait, what if for me it IS art collecting?

[J P M]

On 7/13/2023 at 7:07 PM, World Colonial said:

No, that's what you think.  Aside from exaggerating the significance of minor quality differences as US collecting does generically, you either don't know the actual prices or compare it to even more ridiculously overpriced "top pop" 1933-1964 US coinage.

It's accurate to state that US moderns are frequently or usually a lot less expensive versus this US coinage as a "top pop".  Both are absurdly overpriced for the actual collectible merits, but you don't want to hear that.  Many "top pops" in both don't have low counts for condition census coins anyway.  Many dates have multiples, as in dozens and sometimes more.

This is irrelevant to the price.  Yes, almost none of these buyers will actually look for the coin "in the wild" themself, but that's not why they usually pay these prices.  It's either almost entirely due to:

A) They are buying registry points or (attempting to) buy(ing) their registry ranking.

B) They believe they can recover most, all, or more of their money back at resale.

Only a tiny minority pay huge price spreads for "top pops" versus one or a few TPG numbers lower because they think the coin with the higher number on the label is so much better.  (No, US collecting did not experience a collective epiphany in 1986.)  The price difference is completely disproportionate to the merits as a collectible, and they might not even be able to grade to TPG standards independently anyway.

I love the input this thread is generating. Others can please correct me if I am off base here but I have always put US coinage into 4 groups.

Colonial 1792 - 1860, Civil War. 1861-1865, Classic/Silver 1866-1964 and Modern/Clad 1965 to present.   I do have to ask WC when referring to US coinage  as modern why the 1933-1964 date.

[World Colonial]

On 7/14/2023 at 7:59 AM, J P M said:

I love the input this thread is generating. Others can please correct me if I am off base here but I have always put US coinage into 4 groups.

Colonial 1792 - 1860, Civil War. 1861-1865, Classic/Silver 1866-1964 and Modern/Clad 1965 to present.   I do have to ask WC when referring to US coinage  as modern why the 1933-1964 date.

1933 seems to be a commonly accepted date for the beginning of mass collecting in the US characterized by coin folders or coin albums.  I don't know if it is accurate, but it's the date I have seen most.  1964 as the end of this period due to the end of 90% silver circulating coinage.  These 1033-1964 US classics are the most comparable to US moderns.

I break out US coinage as in the Red Book:

Colonial, as in pre-US Mint

US Federal coinage, those struck by the US Mint

Territorial gold

Other (e.g., Confederate States of America)

Within US Mint coinage:

Circulation strike

Proof strikes of circulating coinage

Patterns

Commemoratives

As for different eras, yes, I see some of that but I'm not sure how representative it is of how most US collectors collect, other than between moderns (generically post-1965) and classics (pre-1965).  I think of all Jefferson nickels as moderns.  Same for Lincoln Memorial cents. European collectors seem to use post 1500 as "modern", as opposed to "ancient" or "medieval".

I recall NGC and PCGS use a date like 1955 for US and 1970 for "world", though there is no such thing as world "moderns" or world "classics".  Non-US collectors seem to distinguish between US and non-US, but I attribute it almost entirely to the hugely inflated US price level vs. everywhere else.  I infer most non-US collectors don't find most US designs particularly appealing, but I still believe more would collect it, if the price variances weren't so astronomically inflated vs. any sensible evaluation of the relative collectible merits.

[cladking]

On 7/13/2023 at 6:07 PM, World Colonial said:

No, that's what you think.  Aside from exaggerating the significance of minor quality differences as US collecting does generically, you either don't know the actual prices or compare it to even more ridiculously overpriced "top pop" 1933-1964 US coinage.

No!  That is my opinion based on the relative scarcity of moderns compared to more common old coins.  

You can call the difference between the typical 1969 quarter and a Gem "minor" until the cows come home but it doesn't change the facts or the numbers.  It doesn't make the junk typical coin any more attractive.  This isn't a matter of opinion.  You are simply mistaken.  Perhaps collectors will seek old beat up culls in circulation for all I know and Gems will never be appreciated but I seriously doubt it because there will be plenty of culls in circulation to satisfy demand.  There are not enough Gems to satisfy more than the token demand that exists.  Even chBU is not common enough to satisfy a mass market.  This is simply the way it is and the reason I say they are undervalued is some exist in the tiniest numbers.  Again, nice attractive '84-P cents and typical '75 proof dimes are rare no matter how you count them.  1970 Japan 100Y in nice chU are also a very elusive coin.  Perhaps even moreso than a 1968 that doesn't appear in minty sets.  

You are doing nobody a favor by claiming otherwise.  

In virtually every single case in every single country a rare modern sells for a tiny fraction of the price of an exactly equivalent older coin.  This is solely because most people believe moderns are uncollectible.  

 

Attitudes are changing all over the world and many moderns are soaring in price.  I know no reason this can't continue.  It might even come to US moderns.  

[cladking]

On 7/13/2023 at 6:44 PM, World Colonial said:

World "moderns" is either a US centric term or one you just made up

I defined it.  

 

All over the world silver was removed from circulating coinage at a given time.  In almost every case the old silver coins were withdrawn by the people and the government.  In almost every case the new coins were made in far larger numbers and of poor quality.  Even those made in good quality were ignored.  In almost every case collectors continued seeking the old coins and did not collect the new coins.  While modserns began in 1965 in this country they were phased in starting in 1920 in Great Britain and firmly established in 1947 leading to the silver disappearing.  In Canada it was 1968.  

 

Almost every single country on earth had circulating silver before 1947. Now they do not and that changed over many years.  It's just a facts and "moderns" is just a word to denote this fact.  

[cladking]

On 7/13/2023 at 6:44 PM, World Colonial said:

No, the coins were hard to find because you were looking for it prior to the internet when communication limitations made most non-US coinage hard(er) to find.  I've told you multiple times that this coinage isn't hard to buy on eBay, if you would look there.  The 1970-1972 has higher prices and less availability but I've seen these multiple times too (yes, in "gem") in my limited searches.  The other dates are easy or very easy to find, in multiple on the same search.

I appreciate the info.  eBay prices of 10 and 15k Soviet coins are lower since I last looked a couple years ago.   So?

[World Colonial]

On 7/14/2023 at 5:21 PM, cladking said:

No!  That is my opinion based on the relative scarcity of moderns compared to more common old coins.  

Collectively, the only relevant more common "old" US coins are 1933-1964.  US coins older than this are not more common, except in some instances by using your same arbitrary criteria which no one else cares about and you won't even pay for it.  (No, there is no comparability between hoarded Morgan dollars and pre-1933 gold, as your claims on the metal content equally have no merit.)

On 7/14/2023 at 5:21 PM, cladking said:

You are simply mistaken. 

I don't question your quality criteria because it's exactly that, yours.

I'm telling you it's irrelevant to practically everyone else and that's a fact.

On 7/14/2023 at 5:21 PM, cladking said:

Perhaps collectors will seek old beat up culls in circulation for all I know and Gems will never be appreciated but I seriously doubt it because there will be plenty of culls in circulation to satisfy demand.  There are not enough Gems to satisfy more than the token demand that exists.  Even chBU is not common enough to satisfy a mass market. 

There is your definition of "appreciated" and reality.  It's no different than when you've told me these coins "aren't collected" which is flat out BS.

There is a "mass market" for US moderns since 1965.  It just isn't at the prices satisfying your personal preference.  US Mint sales prove you wrong for the last 58 years, my entire life.

No one has to agree with you, on anything.  That's all you have been describing.

On 7/14/2023 at 5:21 PM, cladking said:

In virtually every single case in every single country a rare modern sells for a tiny fraction of the price of an exactly equivalent older coin.  

You have no idea how scarce these coins actually are, claiming to know what no one can possibly know predominantly based upon your unrepresentative personal experience.

The prices differences between these "moderns" and the preceding "old" coinage (earlier 20th century) are overwhelmingly financially immaterial.  You just exaggerate the difference.

For actually noticeably older world coinage, the coins are much scarcer and usually have a much higher collector preference.  Most of these coins aren't worth that much either, but you don't know these prices.  It's slightly pre-COVID last I looked, I observed high-quality Parthian (ancients), Crusader (11th or 12th century), and less preferred European medieval minors (e.g., Hungary) sell for relatively nominal amounts, like roughly $100.

On 7/14/2023 at 5:21 PM, cladking said:

Attitudes are changing all over the world and many moderns are soaring in price.  I know no reason this can't continue.  It might even come to US moderns.  

You have no idea how much hardly any of these coins are worth.  The price increases are also  overwhelmingly from FV or near it to mostly still immaterial amounts, with no relevance to the future price whatsoever.  There is no "trend" as you claim because collectors don't collect the way you infer, arbitrarily making a distinction between base metal and other coinage.  

Edited July 14, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/14/2023 at 5:29 PM, cladking said:

I defined it.  

No, you just "made it up".

I know your definition.  The real question is, where is the evidence that (virtually) anyone collects as you claim, except at "junk bin" prices as I have repeatedly told you?

The answer is that there isn't any, which means your definition has no relevance to your claims.  In typical fashion, you don't even collect differently than I am telling you, as proved by your own posting history.

On 7/14/2023 at 5:29 PM, cladking said:

All over the world silver was removed from circulating coinage at a given time.  In almost every case the old silver coins were withdrawn by the people and the government.  In almost every case the new coins were made in far larger numbers and of poor quality.  Even those made in good quality were ignored.  In almost every case collectors continued seeking the old coins and did not collect the new coins.  While modserns began in 1965 in this country they were phased in starting in 1920 in Great Britain and firmly established in 1947 leading to the silver disappearing.  In Canada it was 1968.  

So you keep telling me, yet the evidence proves you wrong, again.  Hundreds of thousands to millions collect this coinage (world "moderns") in some format, yet you keep repeating this nonsense just because you don't see the coins as often as you think you should in the quality you expect and the prices don't satisfy you.

World mint sales collectively, eBay, 000s of B&M dealers, and Franklin Mint "Coin Sets of all Nations" prove you wrong.  You have heard of these sources, haven't you?  (No, it isn't a real question.)

On 7/14/2023 at 5:29 PM, cladking said:

Almost every single country on earth had circulating silver before 1947. Now they do not and that changed over many years.  It's just a facts and "moderns" is just a word to denote this fact.  

Words have meaning.  The term "world moderns" doesn't mean what you claim to anyone else.  It's an arbitrary term you just "made up" (like many of your other premises) which doesn't reflect how others collect, except as I told you.  There is no basis to use the metal content as an arbitrary cut-off or classification as you do, for the reasons I am giving you here and previously.

Edited July 14, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/14/2023 at 5:41 PM, cladking said:

I appreciate the info.  eBay prices of 10 and 15k Soviet coins are lower since I last looked a couple years ago.   So?

The "so" is that you consistently do this when trying to support your claims when it's not accurate.  You do it with the prices and you do it with the scarcity.

I don't believe you know the prices of these coins now or possibly since you started collecting world "moderns" because your posts don't indicate it, and no one can possibly know what you imply to know.  There must be in the vicinity of 100,000 now and recently (maybe 50,000 when you started) in this arbitrary "coin dump" you call world "moderns". No one can possibly know the actual prices for more than a very low fraction, especially for coins that you claim were "rare" or "scarce" that you never saw it in your local dealer's inventory, which is what I know is the source for the majority of your personal unrepresentative experience.

Prior to the internet, I presume this coinage often sold for the Krause list when offered by dealers because they didn't have another reference point, but I don't actually know this definitively. It was accurate in a backwards way because Krause "made up" the list price, dealers used it, and collectors not having another usual option or knowing any better paid it.  This is true outside the US also.

The internet has made any annual catalog pricing obsolete.  It may be somewhat accurate for some US coinage, but not for anything else, other for the reason I just gave you here.  In ignorance, collectors pay it but with eBay and auctions, this still doesn't apply generally.