Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 11:51 AM, zadok said:

...yeah i noticed that i almost always see the same people at all of the larger shows n some r even wearing the same clothes...i have one question for u however, whats ur take on the demographics on the make up of the dealers? particularly , the new dealers coming into the market....

It's the same damned mix it always has been. Mostly old white balding potbellied dudes, with a smattering of younger people and a few women. Same as always. As for my clothing, yeah, the ANA sent me five blue ANA polo shirts. It's a uniform for National Volunteers.

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:54 PM, VKurtB said:

It's the same damned mix it always has been. Mostly old white balding potbellied dudes, with a smattering of younger people and a few women. Same as always.

...i understand, but the few new dealers, r u seeing them being in their 20-30s or retired 50-60s?...just curious im wondering who is going take over the reigns eventually or is it all going be artificial intelligence?....

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 11:58 AM, zadok said:

...i understand, but the few new dealers, r u seeing them being in their 20-30s or retired 50-60s?...just curious im wondering who is going take over the reigns eventually or is it all going be artificial intelligence?....

Mostly older guys. The 20's and 30's exist, but they are the unicorns. One unicorn is Kenny Sammut. Part time dealer and full-time School of Business student at Seton Hall in New Joisey. Thing is, he is EXACTLY in tune with the older guys. Same material, same emphasis. The ANA is all about making sure the hobby does NOT change. There is ONE proven path to success, and while that may really bug people, it happens to be true. ANA's "training programs" whether in Exhibit Judging or anything else, is a system designed to ensure that nothing much changes. Consistency over time is the goal.

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:30 PM, zadok said:

...all u really have to do is go to any large coin show e.g. FUN n walk the floor n look at the dealers inventories on display...virtually no moderns n even less clads n if u want to really check out the prevailing winds try selling the dealers bank rolls of either....

I agree with your general point, to which I will add a slight clarification.

If younger collectors aren't attending (large) coin shows or (national) auctions, they have to be buying their coins somewhere else which presumably is almost predominantly online.  I see tons of modern (world) NCLT online and eBay lists a lot of US moderns too.

Having said this, you are totally correct that to whatever extent younger collectors prefer US moderns (or world "moderns") vs. (somewhat) older collectors, it's not evident in the price level.  It's random noise.

As a proxy for younger collector, Gen-Z dates to 1997.  This also coincides with the beginning of large(r) scale internet collecting, and in the US, the SQ program which should have had the biggest impact on collector preferences for modern US coinage, if CK's theory is correct which it isn't.  The program was a huge success, but not in "meaningfully" increasing the preference (not "popularity") of US modern coinage and it's entirely due to the coin attributes.

Today, Gen-Z collectors range up to 26 and YN who started collecting in the US during the SQ program range from around 21 to their late 30's.  Depending upon definition of "collector", there are at least hundreds of thousands in this age bracket.

It's obvious that most of these collectors can afford to collect at least 95% of US moderns in grades up to MS-66 but they aren't buying it in any meaningful number and the prices prove it.

So, what are they buying differently (for "material" amounts) vs. prior collectors?

My inference is (world) NCLT first and to a much lower extent, world coinage second, with most of their budget in this category to "classics".

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

How fun would this hobby be if most of the coins were unavailable in any grade ?

Yet there are those who desire EXACTLY a market just like that. It's not about what THEY can collect, it's about what YOU cannot.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 1:00 PM, VKurtB said:

Mostly older guys. The 20's and 30's exist, but they are the unicorns. One unicorn is Kenny Sammut. Part time dealer and full-time School of Business student at Seton Hall in New Joisey. Thing is, he is EXACTLY in tune with the older guys. Same material, same emphasis. The ANA is all about making sure the hobby does NOT change. There is ONE proven path to success, and while that may really bug people, it happens to be true. ANA's "training programs" whether in Exhibit Judging or anything else, is a system designed to ensure that nothing much changes. Consistency over time is the goal.

I can hardly wait to see other potential replies to this comment.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 1:19 PM, VKurtB said:

Yet there are those who desire EXACTLY a market just like that. It's not about what THEY can collect, it's about what YOU cannot.

Yes, hard to believe there is more to collect than post 1933 US coinage and common 20th century world coinage, isn't it?

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:26 PM, World Colonial said:

I can hardly wait to see other potential replies to this comment.

Hey, people who have the epically stupid laissez faire attitude about collecting whatever you like can swear at me all they like. What they are endorsing is a path to poverty. Supply has to square up with demand SOMEWHERE down the road, and being magnanimous with the "collect what and how you like" or "do your own thing" is simply irresponsibly leading the unaware down a verrrrrry bad garden path. See? I never WAS a "hippie". I was Alex Keaton before Family Ties' first episode was written. The only difference is that in MY family, the neo-Communists were my sisters.

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 10:59 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If all the people who started collecting in the 1940's through 1970's have their sets unloaded it is a big demographic headwind for pricing going forward.

Yet another reason to expect most US coinage to underperform non-US, with post-1933 US coinage in grades up to MS-66 to potentially sell for less than the grading fee or nominal premiums to silver spot.

Unless the collector base through the participation rate increases "noticeably", this age group will be replaced by a lower number of collectors from other ethnic groups who will also collect US coinage (exclusively) in lower proportion.

[VKurtB]

Bottom line? The coin hobby/business/demographic isn't changing much at all. It hasn't changed much in the last 60 years, and it's not likely to change as much as some people think in the next 60. Yes, that's pretty boring for the generation who has decided they have the right to redefine common words, but it also happens to be the truth.

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:46 PM, World Colonial said:

with post-1933 US coinage in grades up to MS-66 to potentially sell for less than the grading fee

POTENTIALLY?!?!?! Wow!!!!! It's ALREADY QED!

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 1:48 PM, VKurtB said:

Bottom line? The coin hobby/business/demographic isn't changing much at all. It hasn't changed much in the last 60 years, and it's not likely to change as much as some people think in the next 60. Yes, that's pretty boring for the generation who has decided they have the right to redefine common words, but it also happens to be the truth.

This is my opinion too (generally) but not in a position to prove it.  

Is the ANA or any other organization doing research to confirm it?  

The result would be of great interest to a lot of collectors and certainly those who make a living in coins.

[World Colonial]

On 7/23/2023 at 1:50 PM, VKurtB said:

POTENTIALLY?!?!?! Wow!!!!! It's ALREADY QED!

Well, many of these coins still sell for more than my future claim.

Aside from a potentially (likely IMO) shrinking collector base for it, I also know it's a loi more common than indicated by the TPG pops.  It's just an unknown how much more will end up in a holder but some of this coinage (yes, including US moderns) already has thousands in the populations.

I'd estimate at least 95% is actually a Judd R-1 with 1250+ in MS-66, almost always with a noticeable to large multiple.

Not exactly a great combination for the future price performance.

Edited July 23, 2023 by World Colonial

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 1:04 PM, World Colonial said:

This is my opinion too (generally) but not in a position to prove it.  

Is the ANA or any other organization doing research to confirm it?  

The result would be of great interest to a lot of collectors and certainly those who make a living in coins.

I serve on the Membership and Outreach Committee of the ANA, in addition to the Exhibiting Committee, and this stuff is what we do on M&O. We get monthly detailed reports on membership broken down by NUMEROUS slices: age, experience, gender, and the most interesting of all - previously lapsed members who come back. The average ANA member is NOT getting older, contrary to the bull that circulates ATS. And membership is NOT shrinking, either. That's another myth. Membership is slowly growing and demographically stable. The LARGEST challenge is to get first time members to renew for that second go-around. They tend to NOT use any ANA services that are available to them. Once a member renews the first time, long term retention rates are EXTREMELY high.

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 9:09 AM, World Colonial said:

Collector age (yes, your demographic claim) has essentially zero causality on collector preferences.  No one can demonstrate it, as any correlation doesn't demonstrate an actual preference.  It's overwhelmingly a budget limitation.

Up until 1995 kids and older people entering the hobby were told moderns are garbage.  This really isn't much different than your message either but now every new collector doesn't get "the talk" the first time they encounter established collectors.  That moderns are common junk that can never have any value is obviously misinformation.  That you believe these coins will be worth face value in the future as you've already said and verified in this thread is wholly irrelevant to whether or not modern coins are collectible.  They are what they are and your beliefs and my beliefs are irrelevant and irrelevant to future supply, demand, and price performance.  

The reason young coin collectors are congregating on sites other than ones like this one is they know if they come to any of the regular sites they'll get "the talk" with their very first post.  No collector wants to post his coin and hear people say their prizes are just "pocket change".  I've seen some rather desirable moderns called "pocket change" several times.  

Coin collecting is largely a social activity and long has been. collectors meet people to buy, sell, trad, and talk coins.  Younger collectors have a great deal more in common with other young people.  We old fogies often don't even understand their language.  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 11:25 AM, zadok said:

the bank rolls of clad coinage bring face value which

There are virtually no bank rolls of 1965 to 1998 clads.  

When they appear is such a freak occurrence that the price realized is irrelevant unless it's a sale on the net.  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:00 PM, VKurtB said:

Mostly older guys. The 20's and 30's exist, but they are the unicorns. One unicorn is Kenny Sammut. Part time dealer and full-time School of Business student at Seton Hall in New Joisey. Thing is, he is EXACTLY in tune with the older guys. Same material, same emphasis. The ANA is all about making sure the hobby does NOT change. There is ONE proven path to success, and while that may really bug people, it happens to be true. ANA's "training programs" whether in Exhibit Judging or anything else, is a system designed to ensure that nothing much changes. Consistency over time is the goal.

Up until the mid-90's the ANA held that there were no coins in circulation to collect.  

But up until this tine the common wisdom was the US stopped minting coins in 1965.  Even Madison Avenue invariably used a picture of  pre-1965 coins in advertising.  

1995 was a watershed year when the coin market hit bottom.  Coins under $1000 were almost all dead money.  It only changed because of the influx of baby boomers and other new collectors spurred on by the prospect of new coins in circulation and the recovery of moderns.  Grass roots coins were simply impossible to move in that era.  It was even worse if they were world coins but nothing sold. 

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:18 PM, World Colonial said:

It's obvious that most of these collectors can afford to collect at least 95% of US moderns in grades up to MS-66 but they aren't buying it in any meaningful number and the prices prove it.

...And this could just indicate the great depth of potential demand.  

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 3:46 PM, cladking said:

There are virtually no bank rolls of 1965 to 1998 clads.  

When they appear is such a freak occurrence that the price realized is irrelevant unless it's a sale on the net.  

This is NOT my experience. In the Deep South shows that I get to, clad rolls are pretty abundant. It’s not EVERY dealer’s thing, but there are enough. I think it was about 5-6 dealers in Bessemer. 

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:48 PM, VKurtB said:

Bottom line? The coin hobby/business/demographic isn't changing much at all. It hasn't changed much in the last 60 years, and it's not likely to change as much as some people think in the next 60. Yes, that's pretty boring for the generation who has decided they have the right to redefine common words, but it also happens to be the truth.

This isn't true at all.

The average age of collector in 1965 was ~20

In 1975 it was ~ 28

In 1985 it was ~35

In 1995 it was ~42

In 2005 it was ~40

In 2010 it was ~38

In 2015 it was ~40 

In 2025 it will be ~42

The average age of coin show attendees has remained relatively stable between ~50 and ~58.  It peaked ~2013 and has been dropping sharply ever since.  It is about 54 now but it was lowest around 1975

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:03 PM, cladking said:

This isn't true at all.

The average age of collector in 1965 was ~20

In 1975 it was ~ 28

In 1985 it was ~35

In 1995 it was ~42

In 2005 it was ~40

In 2010 it was ~38

In 2015 it was ~40 

In 2025 it will be ~42

The average age of coin show attendees has remained relatively stable between ~50 and ~58.  It peaked ~2013 and has been dropping sharply ever since.  It is about 54 now but it was lowest around 1975

I don’t know what verkockte source you’re using, but my source is the ANA. I serve on the relevant committee of jurisdiction. Call Executive Director Kim Kiick if you don’t want to believe me. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:03 PM, VKurtB said:

This is NOT my experience. In the Deep South shows that I get to, clad rolls are pretty abundant. It’s not EVERY dealer’s thing, but there are enough. I think it was about 5-6 dealers in Bessemer. 

I'm very surprised.  I've been driving around the country for over 50 years looking for '65 to date (1998) clad rolls and rarely see even one.  The only place I have any luck in out west where once in a while I'd see a Denver mint roll.  When I do find them they've always either just come in or they've been in stock for many many years.  

Of course you can find 1976 coinage and  states coins.  About everything else is rarely seen.  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:07 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t know what verkockte source you’re using, but my source is the ANA. I serve on the relevant committee of jurisdiction. 

What do your numbers look like?

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:09 PM, cladking said:

What do your numbers look like?

No change over time. Slow (very) growth in numbers overall. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:07 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t know what verkockte source you’re using, but my source is the ANA. I serve on the relevant committee of jurisdiction. 

Perhaps I should add that I'm talking about at least intermediate collectors and excluding beginners or those who spend very little on coins and supplies.  

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:11 PM, cladking said:

Perhaps I should add that I'm talking about at least intermediate collectors and excluding beginners or those who spend very little on coins and supplies.  

You find supply buyers significant? Why? The trick is to get State Quarter people to branch out. It’s a small numerator, but the denominator is gigantic. 

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:10 PM, VKurtB said:

No change over time. 

In 1965 everyone collected coins.  Most of the dealers from 20 years ago were already dealing coins.  They didn't go to coin shows but they were buying and selling coins.  

Perhaps I'm changing the definition of "collector" a little bit but every baby boomer had a coin collection.  Schools had coin clubs and every town had a coin club for mostly older collectors.  

[cladking]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:13 PM, VKurtB said:

You find supply buyers significant? Why?

I'm figuring a collector spending hundreds of dollars a year on new or used Dansco albums and supplies to protect his coins from degradation is contributing as much to the benefit of the hobby and the benefit of his education as someone spending a similar amount solely on coins.  If someone buys an expensive album to house common coins like silver roosevelts odds are he's not going to fill it with low grades and culls.  He'll probably search for at least nice AU's and this search certainly implies he's an intermediate collector.  

 

Terms and definitions are always somewhat fluid but it's very easy now to spend a lot on supplies.  Just a good quality flip costs a quarter now days.  Not many people collecting road kill are going to be spending a lot of money on flips.  

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:16 PM, cladking said:

In 1965 everyone collected coins.  Most of the dealers from 20 years ago were already dealing coins.  They didn't go to coin shows but they were buying and selling coins.  

Perhaps I'm changing the definition of "collector" a little bit but every baby boomer had a coin collection.  Schools had coin clubs and every town had a coin club for mostly older collectors.  

Most towns that HAD coin clubs still do. New ones are springing up all over. Lancaster PA has the Red Rose Club with ~200 members, average attendance of 70-80 and meet twice a month. This in a town of 50,000. Gadsden, Alabama has the Gadsden/Rainbow City Coin Club with between 150-200 members who meet WEEKLY. Average attendance around 60. The newest one near me is the Madison County Coin Club in Huntsville, AL. They have a smaller average attendance but more serious collectors. COVID ALMOST killed the Madison County Club but it has hung in. COVID did seem to kill off about 50 clubs nationwide. We BELIEVE most of those were clubs dependent on one strong personality who didn’t survive the pandemic. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 4:22 PM, cladking said:

I'm figuring a collector spending hundreds of dollars a year on new or used Dansco albums and supplies to protect his coins from degradation is contributing as much to the benefit of the hobby and the benefit of his education as someone spending a similar amount solely on coins.  If someone buys an expensive album to house common coins like silver roosevelts odds are he's not going to fill it with low grades and culls.  He'll probably search for at least nice AU's and this search certainly implies he's an intermediate collector.  

 

Terms and definitions are always somewhat fluid but it's very easy now to spend a lot on supplies.  Just a good quality flip costs a quarter now days.  Not many people collecting road kill are going to be spending a lot of money on flips.  

Preach! I just got a $250 shipment from Wizard.