Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[World Colonial]

On 4/3/2024 at 9:01 AM, cladking said:

I've probably seen at last one coin for every die used to make '82-P quarters (for instance).  I drove around the country getting samples of these coins from many sources trying to find Gems.  Of course this was insufficient to see every coin but I've been buying rolls of coins from the bank in the intervening years.  I've had people send me circulated coin from various places (especially Boston). I've seen hundreds of souvenir sets, dozens of Numismatic News sets, and more dozens of Paul and Judy sets not to mention myriad other sets.  I've bought rolls on the market and a bag from a bank.  I've laid eyes on more than 1% of the coins that survive today in BU and seen enough circs (most in XF/ AU) that I've probably seen at least one coin from every die.  I've seen hundreds of coins from some dies.  

I haven't ignored and neglected the coins made in the last 60 years.  This is what the entire market has done.  

I've also sampled many of the coins set aside by the retailers over the years.  They account for the lion's share of existent BU rolls.  

What do you not understand from what I have told you?  

Everything you write is based upon your personal experience.  What makes you think you know more about this subject than everyone else combined, because that's exactly what you are claiming?

Your posts don't demonstrate any knowledge about the availability of coinage generally.  Do you understand that?

In my last post above, I provided you with 12 factors which have a demonstrated correlation to survivability, much better than what anyone sees including you.  You completely disregard it and proceed to tell me exactly the same thing you told me before.

That's what you do in all our conversations, ignore independently verifiable evidence in favor of your erroneous assumptions of collective perception and your unrepresentative experience.

So, I ask you again, why would I accept your claims over everything collectively known on this subject?

On 4/3/2024 at 9:01 AM, cladking said:

Why would you with no knowledge and no experience doubt everything I've seen.  Why would you pronounce all these coins "uncollectible".  

You think that because you know the collecting characteristics makes you knowledgeable on the context of this discussion?

Read what I just wrote.  Your posts demonstrate no knowledge in estimating populations.  You're not even familiar with the TPG data which is the starting point.  No one who is familiar with the subject will ever make the claims you make, starting with your inaccurate claims on statistical methods.  You either don't understand statistics or still believe your erroneous assumptions make your observations accurate.

I've never claimed this coinage is "uncollectible".  You can't find a single post where I stated or implied it.  Disagreeing with your exaggerated claims doesn't mean I don't think it's collectible.  It's another example where you just "make things up" in this instance because you dislike what I tell you.

Edited April 5 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 4/3/2024 at 9:03 AM, cladking said:

People collect rarity, quality, history, and importance.  People collect things they expect to increase in value as well.  I'm actually counting on these things to continue as the world continues shifting through massive changes.  

Your response has nothing to do with my post to which you replied.  

The point I made is that since your assumptions essentially have nothing to do with collective perception toward coin collecting or even US moderns, that's why your claims in this discussion will only be correct by coincidence.

You can't find a single collector or even person who views coin collecting as you claim.  Your claims don't even apply to your own collecting in some instances, starting with your "hate" claim". 

The common theme in your posts on these topics is your dislike of collective perception toward US moderns.  That’s it and nothing more.  This makes a lot more sense than you believing a combination of inaccurate and contradictory assumptions which have virtually nothing to do with virtually anything in coin collecting.  This is why I disagree with you on practically everything on these topics. 

[World Colonial]

On 4/2/2024 at 8:43 PM, cladking said:

Did I ever mention I've talked to all the sellers of BU rolls from the '70's and '80's?   Did I ever mention they told me how many rolls they sold?  I round it off to "zero" because that's all it amounts to; a rounding error.  

I never specifically commented on this part of your post.  It's an example of your inaccurate assumptions which you do not even recognize.

The response you received from these dealers wasn’t due to any scarcity. It was entirely economic.  There is no basis to believe this coinage was hard to find within 15 years of issuance.  It’s a total absurdity.  It makes even less sense than your prior claim that 70’s Soviet 15K were “rare” within 15 years of striking.

Why would dealers bother selling it with any frequency when collectors could acquire the one coin needed for their set, either out of circulation or at most a nominal premium to FV, like 50c? 

How much did these rolls sell for, even in the late seventies?  $12?  Barely more?  How much different was it in the 80’s when you asked?

It couldn’t have been much different, considering that I see “BU” rolls on eBay starting from $20+ and this is in 2024, decades later.

Your anecdote isn’t a “trump card” supporting your claim as you infer.  Contrary to what you imply, the only thing this example demonstrates is that coin dealers cannot be bothered to sell common low-priced coins in volume when they can’t make sufficient profit doing it.

It’s not really that different today, regardless of the relative scarcity with 50’s and 60’s silver coinage.  There is limited demand for US modern rolls because buyers (not just collectors) do have a silver preference, virtually no one has an interest in buying dozens to thousands of duplicates of any coin as a collectible at virtually any premium, and almost no one hoards base metal coinage as a store of value.

Edited April 5 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 4/3/2024 at 9:01 AM, cladking said:

If you think you can just find a nice coin of every date in circulation you'll need to rethink this as well.  These coins were designed to last 30 years and we're coming up on 60 years.  Most of the old coins in circulation are in deplorable condition.  Even a nice attractive F can be highly elusive.  

This is amusing.

Your prior posts indicated that this coinage is hard to find because it cannot be found in circulation in some arbitrary quality since your observation and dealer experience leads you to conclude it's scarce.

Considering what I have written on coin forums and the replies you have received from me, this attribution to my posts is absurd.  I never make such absurd claims.

No, of course, it can't be found in "high " quality in circulation after 30 or 60 years, any more than 60's circulating coinage of the same age could be found then or any older coinage could either.  However many remain, it's in someone's collection or "change jar", same place as all other coins. 

That's why no one (including you) can see it and we have to use other methods other than observation to estimate remaining survivors, which is why I replied with the 12 factors in my prior post.  

[Henri Charriere]

I cannot understand how such an upbeat topic descended into such chaos.  As I have the highest regard for both combatants, and for excellent reasons, I should like to leave both as well as the OP and all other interested viewers with a simple thought a gentleman uttered thirty years ago following a traffic stop. At a news conference, he said,

"Can't we all just get along?"

 

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:01 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I cannot understand how such an upbeat topic descended into such chaos.  As I have the highest regard for both combatants, and for excellent reasons, I should like to leave both as well as the OP and all other interested viewers with a simple thought a gentleman uttered thirty years ago following a traffic stop. At a news conference, he said,

"Can't we all just get along?"

 

I get along fine with cladking.  Nothing personal.

Sometimes my comments seem harsh, but I don't post on coin forums to participate in a mutual admiration society or with a group of conformists.  I'm also not here to talk about CAC, GTG, how much someone's coin is worth or similar mundane subjects.

[Henri Charriere]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:05 PM, World Colonial said:

I get along fine with cladking.  Nothing personal.

Sometimes my comments seem harsh, but I don't post on coin forums to participate in a mutual admiration society or with a group of conformists.  I'm also not here to talk about CAC, GTG, how much someone's coin is worth or similar mundane subjects.

No explanation necessary. I enjoy reading everything you've written because your "voice" is unique and stands out from all others. My sole regret is, having elected to opt-out of collecting for fifty years, I am not qualified to weigh in on subject matter I have limited knowledge about. 

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:12 PM, Henri Charriere said:

No explanation necessary. I enjoy reading everything you've written because your "voice" is unique and stands out from all others. My sole regret is, having elected to opt-out of collecting for fifty years, I am not qualified to weigh in on subject matter I have limited knowledge about. 

You can still learn a lot sitting in front of your computer.  No, not as much as inspecting coins in person but still more than previously.  Depends on what you are interested in learning and which coins.

The subject of this current discussion, I'm interested in it because of the actual difficulty in acquiring the coins I have collected since I resumed in 1998, especially now with my current primary interest.

That's why I became interested in attempting to understand the survivability and quality distribution of coins I don't collect, to use as a reference point and basis of comparison to those I do.  

Yes, my personal observation is an input into my estimates, but I also know from prior experience (from overpaying for coins which turned out to be more common than I initially thought) that what I see isn't reflective of the supply because it isn't representative, and neither is anyone else's with hardly any coin, especially any common coin.

[cladking]

On 4/5/2024 at 4:11 PM, World Colonial said:

That's what you do in all our conversations, ignore independently verifiable evidence in favor of your erroneous assumptions of collective perception and your unrepresentative experience.

No.  You are repeating the same baseless unsubstantiated claptrap and calling it "independently verifiable evidence"!!!!!!

"(The coins are not old and have been – not maybe - saved in volume in “high” quality from “day one” within the lifetime of just those reading this thread.  We know this from mint sets alone.)"

The coins have been saved neither in volume nor in high quality as I am continually presenting actual evidence in support.  In the '60's and '70's very few people even cared about high grades.  High grade morgans had a 5 or 10% premium.  I know because I was buying them.  People didn't save much clad as proven by the fact that one never sees old clad collections come into coin shops.  Do you maintain that collecting clads makes people immortal?  

I ignored your list because items didn't apply, weren't true, were irrelevant, or some combination of these.   Clad dimes (for instance) have been in circulation more than three times as long as  silver dimes.  Indeed, they've circulated longer than mercury dimes.  I've told you many times those mint sets are gone.  People bought them from the mint or ran down to their favorite dealer to pay double issue price and then when the market was saturated they took massive losses on them and often by cutting the sets up and spending them.   Even many of the mint set coins in circulation no longer survive and all the rest are degraded.  

 

I try to read your posts closely and respond to anything new and to anything that is strategically appropriate.  I don't try to correct errors as the reader can do this.  

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

The coins have been saved neither in volume nor in high quality as I am continually presenting actual evidence in support. 

You have presented zero evidence other than your unrepresentative experience supported by your baseless premises which have nothing to do with how anyone collects, not even you.

In a prior reply, I refuted your ridiculous inference that dealers not selling clad rolls in the 70's or 80's indicated anything about the scarcity.  It's a completely absurd claim.  As usual, you didn't even try to answer it, presumably because I'm supposed to believe you over common sense.

Your definition of "large volume" for "scarcity" is anything scarcer than 1933-1964 US coinage, another absurd standard.  This coinage (US moderns) is more common than 99% of all coinage ever struck in equivalent market (not your) quality dated prior to 2000.  Claiming it doesn't exist in "large volume" in "high" quality is nonsensical.

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

In the '60's and '70's very few people even cared about high grades.  High grade morgans had a 5 or 10% premium.  I know because I was buying them.  People didn't save much clad as proven by the fact that one never sees old clad collections come into coin shops. 

I'm not referring to your "gems" or the TPG condition census equivalent quality.  You know that.  I'm referring to MS-64ish, the context of our discussion in the PCGS thread, not the standard you routinely arbitrarily change.

What you see or saw in a coin shop doesn't prove much of anything.  It's primarily dealer economics, not what you claim.  You can't see what's in someone's collection or "change jar".  What do you not understand about that?

If your claim was true, then there is no possibility the coinage in the TPG data would exist either.  This includes practically everything I've collected since 1998.  I've already told you that I know your dealer(s) never sold this type of coin either at all, or in the quality recorded in the TPG data.  So, how does it exist? (No, this isn't a real question.)

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

Do you maintain that collecting clads makes people immortal?  

What is this supposed to mean?  That there aren't collectors still left who could have acquired this coinage directly form circulation or from someone who did?  And it doesn't exist because you didn't see it in your local dealer?

Edited April 6 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

I ignored your list because items didn't apply, weren't true, were irrelevant, or some combination of these.  

No, you ignored it because what I wrote contradicts you and is contrary to your personal preference.  It's the same thing you did in our initial discussion years ago.

I made notations of how my list applies to US moderns.  Every notation I made is accurate.  Now of course, under your exaggeration, using the one you quoted, the volume saved isn't large, but that's because your basis of comparison is 1933-1964 US coinage which is common as dirt.

The world coinage examples I gave you with their confirmed supply, you ignored it completely.  You can't refute it, so you ignore it.  As I told you, there is no basis to claim that US moderns are anything other than dozens, hundreds, thousands and even more common than these examples I gave you.

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

Clad dimes (for instance) have been in circulation more than three times as long as  silver dimes. 

I'm not claiming clad dimes are common vs. silver FDR dimes.  This has nothing to do with what I told you since I've specifically told you that this comparison doesn't indicate a thing about an actual scarcity.

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

Indeed, they've circulated longer than mercury dimes.  I've told you many times those mint sets are gone.  People bought them from the mint or ran down to their favorite dealer to pay double issue price and then when the market was saturated they took massive losses on them and often by cutting the sets up and spending them.   Even many of the mint set coins in circulation no longer survive and all the rest are degraded.  

The US Mint sold millions of sets every year for decades after 1964.  If only 10% survive in the quality standard I told you above (TPG MS-64ish) which is hardly unreasonable, that's in the vicinity of 200,000 or more.  I think it's higher but let's assume it's no more than that.

This isn't a low number or scarce.  It's only scarce versus 1933-1964 US coinage as I told you.

I also disagree with your assumption that the coins were otherwise not saved "in volume" out of circulation because your assumptions of aggregate behavior are "claptrap", starting with your "hate claim".  Not a single assumption of yours where I disagree with you is accurate and if you tell me otherwise again, then this means you "hate" your collection too.  If your assumptions apply to anyone else, it applies to you.

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, cladking said:

I try to read your posts closely and respond to anything new and to anything that is strategically appropriate.  I don't try to correct errors as the reader can do this.  

You mean "errors" where I contradict your outlandish unsubstantiated claims and it's contrary to your personal preference?

Here is a partial list of the nonsensical premises from your prior posts which apply to this conversation:

One: No one’s personal experience is representative of availability, unless the coin is known to be (very) common.  You are not an exception.  You don't know more than the collective knowledge base on this subject.  

Two: It’s nonsense to believe hundreds of thousands to millions buy coins they don’t like.  That’s your “hate” claim.  If your claim is true, it’s equally valid to claim hundreds of millions (at least) are also spending billions if not far more on goods and services they do not want either.  It’s absurd.

Three: No society or its collectors have any predisposition to prefer currently circulating change.  New collectors do not equal new preferences.  That’s your demographic claim.

Four: Collector preferences aren’t and never were random or unpredictable.  In the aggregate, It’s cultural.  This includes metal content.

Five: Virtually no one cares about your quality criteria to pay “material” premiums for it.

Six: There is no reason to believe people generally or collectors specifically have the financial motivation or exhibit the financial behavior you imply.  You ignore time preference.  That's the primary reason dealers didn't sell this coinage outside of Mint sets in the 70's and 80's and only limited now.  It's economics.

[cladking]

On 4/5/2024 at 4:54 PM, World Colonial said:

That's why no one (including you) can see it and we have to use other methods other than observation to estimate remaining survivors, which is why I replied with the 12 factors in my prior post.  

Is observation meaningless only when I do it or does this apply to everybody? 

Does one have to be a Peer to make observation?!

[cladking]

On 4/5/2024 at 5:22 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, my personal observation is an input into my estimates, but I also know from prior experience (from overpaying for coins which turned out to be more common than I initially thought) that what I see isn't reflective of the supply because it isn't representative, and neither is anyone else's with hardly any coin, especially any common coin.

Because you erred either in sampling or math then I must be wrong!

Do you realize it's far easier to get excellent samples and make good estimates fore current coin than it is to do so for old coins from obscure or lightly collected countries?  I was right here where the coins were made and distributed from day 1.   

 

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 8:21 PM, cladking said:

Is observation meaningless only when I do it or does this apply to everybody? 

Does one have to be a Peer to make observation?!

There is a difference between observation having some relevance and what you claim.  Do you understand that?

Notice I have never claimed my experience is representative, even of the coins I collect?  It's certainly at least as representative as yours is for US moderns or the world coinage you call "modern".

The reason I disagree with you on this aspect is because you don't recognize the limitations on your experience.  That's what I have been trying to explain to you, including in my list of factors which you called "claptrap".

If I had a reason to believe you, I would admit it.  The reason I have not is because I'm not going to believe you over the collective knowledge base on this subject, especially when your assumptions contradict practically everything evident in collecting.

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 8:25 PM, cladking said:

Because you erred either in sampling or math then I must be wrong.

Utterly ridiculous.

This claim proves yet again you don't understand statistical methods.

No one has access to the full or even a representative population, because regardless of the actual supply, the better coins have disproportionately been removed from the observable population and no one has access to it.  

Like everyone else, you apply your assumptions to your observations, when your premises have essentially nothing to do with how anyone collects starting with your "hate" claim.

You can't sample what's in someone's collection or "change jar" but due to your erroneous premises and bias, you conclude your observations are reflective of the scarcity when it almost certainly isn't.

[World Colonial]

On 4/5/2024 at 8:25 PM, cladking said:

Do you realize it's far easier to get excellent samples and make good estimates fore current coin than it is to do so for old coins from obscure or lightly collected countries?  I was right here where the coins were made and distributed from day 1.   

 

Yes, I realize it.  I understand statistical methods even if you don't.

That's why I don't rely on my personal experience alone.  If I had looked where you have your entire collecting career, I'd own virtually none of the coins I've bought since 1998, especially those in my primary collection now.

I own 88 pillars (1732-1772) in NGC and PCGS holders mostly from Peru but also from Bolivia, Guatemala and Mexico.  63 from Peru with 25 in an MS holder and 10 more in either AU-55 or AU-58.  Almost half of my 88 are in these grades.  None of these coins show up at hardly any coin shop ever, in these grades or otherwise.  Thanks to the internet, I own coins missing from the few best-known collections of this segment and many of mine are of better quality too.

Anyone can easily find one million or more 1965-1998 clad quarters in MS-64ish or whatever denomination you want to use vs. my collection.

Similar concept for more series than I care to name, which is which is why I referenced the TPG data.

That's why I came up with that list of 12 "factors" in my post.  I use these factors from which I concluded that the best point of comparison is equivalent Liberty Seated denominations because the larger collector base and higher price level makes the supply better known and the two share some commonality.  I don't know how scarce pillars are, but I reasonably conclude it's usually noticeably scarcer across the quality distribution, subject to the mintage.

[cladking]

On 4/5/2024 at 7:45 PM, World Colonial said:

Anyone can easily find one million or more 1965-1998 clad quarters in MS-64ish or whatever denomination you want to use vs. my collection.

Yes!  There are more than a million of them even though some dates are far more difficult than others.  The people who saved them didn't understand statistics or how the world works any better than we do so they weren't efficient in saving equal numbers of each date.  So if there ever are any future collectors it will be a mess as they try to sort out who gets what. Luckily they'll have artificial intelligence to even out the rough spots and make the distribution equitable.

For 50 years I've told modern bashers these coins were scarce and they told me it didn't matter because there are countless billions in circulation.  Now that they aren't in circulation any longer I'm told it doesn't matter because no one will ever collect them anyway. 

Your twist that they aren't scarce  is a brand new one. I'm not sure how to counter this.  If I told you to go out and look for yourself I'm sure your experience would not be representative of reality either.  

I don't know why anyone ever gets out of his cave in the morning if the world is so incomprehensible? 

 

Now that we are so close to agreeing let me just observe that a mass market could absorb a million coins in mere days.  

[cladking]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:33 PM, World Colonial said:

In a prior reply, I refuted your ridiculous inference that dealers not selling clad rolls in the 70's or 80's indicated anything about the scarcity.

Responding to a post or the argument contained therein is not the same thing as refuting it. You are merely imagining millions of collectors in the '60's and '70's running down to their favorite bank and buying rolls and rolls of nice shiny well made and pristine quarters.  It didn't happen.  Few banks would accommodate such special requests and I know this because I was about the only one running around.  I had to twist the arm of one bank (usually I just tried somewhere else), and was told by the vault manager that he had never even heard of anyone requesting rolls of clads.  He said he even called up a few other vault managers in the district and they hadn't either.  Sure there were pesky requests sometimes for cents and nickels but not clad.  Remember?  People hated clad and they weren't out there looking for them or combing through them to find Gems.  So why would there be millions of collectors buying rolls at their local branch?  It never happened.  

I was there and watching it.   People who wanted rolls bought them from suppliers who advertised in the coin papers  and sold them for a nominal cost plus shipping and handling.  In those days shipping and handling didn't cost so much but people didn't want these coins at any price so sales were abysmal.  Despite very low sales most of these coins are likely gone or degraded today because they weren't valued by the buyers.  By the same token most mint sets weren't valued by the owners either which is why they are gone too.  

 

Ask your bank if you can get a box of shiny new dimes and let us know what they said.  No, not new quarters, new dimes; accept no substitute! 

Those dimes they refuse to provide you would of necessity have been '22, '23 or '24 P or D mints because the mint and FED use FIFO accounting practices and always ship out coins that have been in storage the longest.  This assures all the dimes of any given date will wear out evenly.   There are no pallets of brand new 1975 dimes lost in a warehouse somewhere.  The fact that 1975 dimes ARE IN FACT wearing out evenly proves there aren't even pallets of circulated coins lost in warehouses.   If you don't believe it find a bunch of '75 dimes and look for yourself.  I have and have done so on a continuing basis since before '75 dimes were even minted.  My sample sizes are in the millions.  If you could find enough'75 dimes to perform an analysis of condition you'd see that the form a nice bell curve centered at F- condition.  Of course you can't find enough of these very easily to do such a statistical analysis any longer because they were designed to last only 30 years and it's almost half a century now.   

It's not only 1975 dimes that are gone now but all of them and the mint sets too.  Most of the very few BU rolls that you are still imaging existed are probably gone too.  People simply didn't save these coins to start with and the years have been cruel to the few exceptions.  This is the way it is.   Trying to estimate surviving populations by looking at their price is putting the cart before the horse.  People still aren't collecting clads coins in numbers approaching their availability but this number is growing very fast.  They will get better at finding the coins they want even as the attrition continues.  As demand creates profit markets will begin to appear as they are right now.  As markets appear it will become easier to purchase coins.   
 

There are not enough nice attractive BU clads to satisfy a mass market so if one does ever begin price will increase to balance the supply.  

 

There are not large numbers of ugly Unc clads either.  There are even fewer nice XF and VF clads.   You have to get down almost all the way to coins in circulation before substantial numbers exist.  Did I mention many dates are getting really hard to find in circulation as well?  Most are gone and what's left are heavily worn culls.  

[samclemen3991]

I have no dog in this fight either way but just wanted to share a personal collector experience. Trust me, I had statistics in college too and understand the limitations of empirical data. (Have enjoyed reading thread though)

Sometime around 1995 I found an old blue book collecting album for Washington Quarters.  The start date was 1960 which is just one date off from my birth year.  I found that to be neat but also a rather odd year to pick.

At that time I owned three businesses and one of them required a large change supply so I thought it would be cool to fill it.  I don't know if you know the Chevy Chase movie where he is trapped in a round about and keeps saying, "Look kids Big Ben!"  Even in the 90's it seemed every 3rd quarter was a Bi-Centennial.  Those will be rare ten years after the sun does a Super Nova.  I was able to fill the silver holes,  not through circulation, rather through John Paul Sorosi coins quickly.  I am in the middle of fly over country and was able to get a handful of Denver coins from the 60's and 70's plus about two early philly clad dates.  Of course coins that were just being minted were easy too, but after about 6 years and only getting about a quarter of the album filled two things happened,.I lost interest and the clothes dryer broke.  My collection was released back into the wild.  I just wanted to share a personal experience  and read very little into it.  James

 

[cladking]

On 4/6/2024 at 8:41 AM, cladking said:

I had to twist the arm of one bank (usually I just tried somewhere else), and was told by the vault manager that he had never even heard of anyone requesting rolls of clads.  He said he even called up a few other vault managers in the district and they hadn't either. 

I had been all over the country trying to find nice '82-P quarters and had had almost no luck at all.  I was able to procure some rolls but the coins would barely even grade MS-65 today (I graded them MS-63).   By October I had about given up when I was handed three nice shiny '82-P quarters at my local BMV.   Upon enquiring where they got the coins I hurried across the street to that bank which just happened to be my bank.  I couldn't beg borrow or steal even one of them and was left no avenue to change their minds. 

I went home and poured through all my bank receipts for the last seven years. I found eight or ten tiny little errors that added up to me owing them 27c.  Most of the errors were in their favor but a larger one was in mine.  I went into the bank and talked to the same representative.  I set a quarter and two pennies on her desk and asked for a receipt.  Suffice to say that in lieu of a receipt she introduced me to the vault manager.  I was very successful and was able to glean out a few rolls of nice Gems; no varieties but nice Gems.  Being such a tough grader I considered most of them to be only MS-64 at the time.  

Mebbe I shouldda kept the bag.  Virtually every one in the bag would grade MS-65 or higher today. 

 

The moral of the story is simple; people did not set aside clad between 1968 and 1999.  The only time I was able to get rolls of clads was when a friendly bank teller would look and see if he had any.   Once in a while you could even get a bag but most banks just didn't want to mess with it.  No demand created no means to supply the coins so most people just sent off $12 or $13 per roll to one of the advertisers.  Since there was no demand it is pointless to speculate that there were lots of people who were getting the coins at the bank.  No!  Oddball rolls surely exist because sometimes people would save a roll they just happened to get at the bank but these hypothetical coins are probably scarcer than the rolls sold by the advertisers.  

The quality of the average roll is so poor that they have little or no bearing on the availability of MS-64 and better clad.  

[cladking]

On 4/6/2024 at 8:48 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I was able to fill the silver holes,  not through circulation, rather through John Paul Sorosi coins quickly. 

I checked his site and he lists buying and selling of all BU rolls.  I seriously doubt he does much business in clads today.   

If memory serves he was selling brand new clad back in the late-'70's but was a relatively small figure in that business.  

On 4/6/2024 at 8:48 AM, samclemen3991 said:

Of course coins that were just being minted were easy too, but after about 6 years and only getting about a quarter of the album filled two things happened,.I lost interest and the clothes dryer broke.

I sometimes wonder if those late-'80's and early '90's clads will be the toughest in XF and AU.  Some of the early dates will be tough as well but there were people setting them aside and I have run into some accumulations.  Unfortunately these don't survive long after they come on the market but I've found varieties in them and pulled out a few rarely seen die pairing in high grade.  

 

On 4/6/2024 at 8:48 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I just wanted to share a personal experience  and read very little into it.

Thanks.   Very interesting.  The story is not so unusual.  Whitman has sold hundreds of thousands of the folders to collect clads though I rarely see them full or otherwise.  Believe it or not I saw a whole case of them in a coin shop about 1995 (these were a different issue than yours and started at 1965) but the owner wouldn't tell me why he had them.  It's hard to believe any coin shop could sell more than a handful a year.  

[cladking]

In addition to all the running around I did to sample coins I also spoke to hundreds of dealers and collectors to pick their brains and to gain insight into their experiences about moderns.  This included a lot of letters and a few phone calls as well.   Of course it included major dealers and suppliers of moderns.  John Paul Sarosi was one I never did have the pleasure of meeting despite attending a couple of the Monroeville coin shows.  But I certainly spoke to enough people to know there was nothing at all unusual about my experiences and observations.  Even today most of the big dealers refuse to stock or advertise moderns.  They are treated like Crazy Half Heller (https://archive.org/details/terrible-tales-german/page/89/mode/2up) or like the coins cause cancer.  The hobby has barely changed since 1965 in many ways.  The War on Coin Collectors is still being fought by many old timers.  They remember the collapse of the BU roll market followed by the collapse of the entire coin market and rather than blaming the bad thinking and bad decisions they blame clads and all moderns.  This was 60 years ago but it's still 1965 in many coin shops.  

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  I don't know who's right and who's wrong, but one thing for sure: this thread is RED HOT!!!

Q.A.:  Man, I love this place!  🤣

[cladking]

I checked the company's website and was shocked by this;

• Huge premium prices paid for the above average Unc rolls

[cladking]

Of course the implication is the BU roll prices listed by Greysheet might have no meaning at all if the demand for moderns is for nice MS-64 and better coins.   Many BU rolls have no coins this nice.   Even mint set rolls might have as few as 2 or 3 nice gemmy coins.   '76 Ike rolls assembled years ago would have two nice coins and any assembled recently will have one nice coin but it's skunked (needs cleaning).  

This might explain why common rolls are selling for prices as much as 15X Greysheet.   Perhaps I missed seeing the move.  It would explain part of the reason prices on eBay are far higher.  Nice attractive clad is hard to find and every year it gets harder.  Even MS-60 to MS-63 coins are far less common than people believe and almost all clad in such low grade can be very unattractive.    

[J P M]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:12 PM, Henri Charriere said:

My sole regret is, having elected to opt-out of collecting for fifty years,

You are still qualified QA.  All the good coins are least fifty years old.  

[samclemen3991]

I have had very little to do with  John Paul Sorosi coins since way back in the 90's when I ordered the silver Washington quarters.  However, about a decade ago I did get a ACME letter telling me that the daughter of John Paul was going to continue on with the coin shop.  I collect Seated material so I wish her the best but don't think of them as one of my regular coin sites.  Are there people who collect BU rolls Cladking?  I know one tiny part of numismatics.  James

[cladking]

On 4/7/2024 at 9:02 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I have had very little to do with  John Paul Sorosi coins since way back in the 90's when I ordered the silver Washington quarters.  However, about a decade ago I did get a ACME letter telling me that the daughter of John Paul was going to continue on with the coin shop.  I collect Seated material so I wish her the best but don't think of them as one of my regular coin sites.  Are there people who collect BU rolls Cladking?  I know one tiny part of numismatics.  James

I've never actually met a BU roll collector since the BU roll market collapse in 1964.   In those days there were lots of them and the government greatly overestimated the impact they were having on getting coins into circulation.  I'm quite confident there are at least a hundred of them out there and in light of the fact that sellers of BU rolls are proliferating their numbers might well be growing.  I just don't know what's happening to most of these coins being retailed as BU rolls.  I have no doubt at least some of the rolls will be split up or cherry picked but there are numerous possibilities.  

Numismatic News in 1984 reported on an east coast vending company owner who had set aside a bag of every date and mint since 1965.  They said at the time that after running stories about the scarcity of '82-P quarters for weeks this bag was the only BU coins that had turned up!   I believe I've seen coins from this bag and the coins tend to be typical.  Ironically the numbers of '82 coins  saved in rolls and bags increased substantially in 1982 because it was widely known that there would be no mint sets.  But still fewer than 80,000 '82-P quarters were saved and attrition on these is substantial.  While there is no doubt that the coins saved out in BU are superior on average to typical coins they are still very poor because these were made so badly and because Gems were released in highly limited geographical areas.  Attrition on intact rolls is astronomical because of the high demand for singles.  A nice chBU roll of these can be had (in theory) for $235 Greysheet bid and then the coins sold on eBay for $100 each!!!  Of course most rolls are typical and will contain only a very few $100 coins.  

When I started setting aside clad quarters in 1975 I wanted an original  BU roll set as well as 40 of the nicest specimens I could find from any source.   But I quickly found stoppers to a BU roll set.   The 1969 was impossible even back then  without sending off for it and by the late-'70's it was too late even for this.  Then most of the early dates were just awful in rolls.  Many rolls had nothing but very poor coins and I saw no point in saving them and no pleasure from owning them so they were just spent.   

A roll collection of nice coins with nice end coins or even just 40 nice specimens made for circulation would be a major achievement and source of pride.   I do value the Gems I've found in circulation a great deal and have set them aside all along.  Many varieties don't exist in mint sets.  You might say I'm a frustrated BU roll collector.  Some of the most fun I've had collecting moderns besides all the interesting people I've met is chasing down Gems and varieties in circulation.  I should have done more of it and maybe a little less time sitting in coin shops looking through their stacks of mint sets.  

[VKurtB]

On 4/7/2024 at 10:51 AM, cladking said:

I've never actually met a BU roll collector since the BU roll market collapse in 1964

In that case, allow me to introduce myself. Solid BU rolls are LEGION in central Pennsylvania. Every coin club auction, every public coin auction, every flea market table, virtually EVERYWHERE. I currently hold about 700ish solid BU rolls. Various dates. My most recent purchase was, all by itself, in excess of 100 rolls.  And other than those, there are about five GALLONS of miscellaneous cents. Am I “normal”. Aw hellz naw. 

Edited April 8 by VKurtB