Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

I usually don't mind off-topic stuff or segues into other coins....but this whole debate involves coins that haven't ever been hot which is the purpose of this thread !! 

Edited April 10 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

Owing to the incontrovertible fact I have nothing useful to do, most of the time, it suddenly occurred to me why a few members voluntarily share their hunting, gathering and foraging activities...

In a nutshell, they had the great misfortune to be saddled with a great deal of disposable income and, botttom line, they feel obliged to do something with it.

This affliction does not apply to the vast majority of garden-variety members. However, with amateurish detective work, I have come up with a plausible, palatable explanation.

This hearkens back to the time @Woods020 posted a Topic regarding what preparations collectors have made in contemplation of the inevitable.  I never gave it much thought as had many others. There were others who intended to reap the fruits of their labors themselves. That left one group unaccounted for: those who planned to leave their unique coins, truly magnificent sets, collections, accumulations, hoards, rolls, oversized spitoons filled to the gills with loose change, etc., to their heirs.

This has two obvious benefits: they are exempt from conjecture, criticism and outright condemnation. Nobody pointed fingers at the legendary Collyer brothers, both professional men, until their deaths in 1947 and "excavation" of their homes unearthed one who had died after accidentally triggering a homemade booby trap. The only surprise appeared to be they were millionaires living in abject squalor.

Their lifelong pursuit of "things" came to an ignominious end. (It took weeks to empty the home, the entire contents of which wound up in the city dump; their brownstone was razed and the lot where it stood is today a playground bearing their name.)

The principals here are unconcerned with value because they readily admit they are not coin investors. Their ultimate net worth will be left to their heirs to sort out. And that activity will not cost them a dime. They may appear to be driven, but they are merely biding there time.

Edited April 10 by Henri Charriere
Die polishing.

[cladking]

On 4/10/2024 at 3:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I usually don't mind off-topic stuff or segues into other coins....but this whole debate involves coins that haven't ever been hot which is the purpose of this thread !! 

By most definitions of "hot" no moderns circulating coins has ever been hot.  If you extend the definition to include things like the '70-S sm date cent or the 1983 quarter in BU then no "hot" circulating modern has ever decreased in value. 

The reason for this is simple; most people hate moderns.  In order to be hot a lot of people need to buck that trend and then the coin can remain strong on its own merits.  

 

In 1975 a 1960 sm dt cent was the same price as the 1970 sm dt cent.  The value of the '60 cent has eroded to the point it's worth less $2 now if you can find a buyer.  The '70 wholesales at $40 and would be far higher but few people collect modern one cent coins.   Many 1960 sm dts are Gem so it's hard to get a premium.  Very very few '70 sm dts are Gem but few seem to even know it.  

 

As long as circulating moderns are ignored there might never be one that went from hot to not.   

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

@cladking Your concept on clad coins is an interesting one.  I think a few things have to change to make your scenario true.  First, as stated, demand needs to increase for clad coins.  This may occur as future generations see moderns as not-so-modern.  But, I also think the whole market needs to increase.  If modern coin prices increase to a level of classic/silver coins, I would surmise that many collectors would rather spend comparable money on the classic coin.  For this reason, I do think that the classics will continue to keep a lid on the moderns.

I could be wrong.  I am still learning the hobby... but, that's what my gut says.

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  This has got to be something I have never encountered on the Forum before...

Q.A.:  What's that?

🐓:  A polite "Back on Track," followed by a matter-of-fact dissent!

Q.A.:  True, but did you catch that adorable gem:  Among other things, "... First.... demand for clad coins needs to increase!!!  [Emphases all mine.]

🐓:  You gotta be kiddin' me!  You sure you read that right?

Q.A.:  Malheureusement, I did!

🐓 :  Wow!...  That's the reason why we left the hobby in the first place!!! Hey, maybe copper will be the new gold...

[zadok]

On 4/10/2024 at 6:20 PM, cladking said:

By most definitions of "hot" no moderns circulating coins has ever been hot.  If you extend the definition to include things like the '70-S sm date cent or the 1983 quarter in BU then no "hot" circulating modern has ever decreased in value. 

The reason for this is simple; most people hate moderns.  In order to be hot a lot of people need to buck that trend and then the coin can remain strong on its own merits.  

 

In 1975 a 1960 sm dt cent was the same price as the 1970 sm dt cent.  The value of the '60 cent has eroded to the point it's worth less $2 now if you can find a buyer.  The '70 wholesales at $40 and would be far higher but few people collect modern one cent coins.   Many 1960 sm dts are Gem so it's hard to get a premium.  Very very few '70 sm dts are Gem but few seem to even know it.  

 

As long as circulating moderns are ignored there might never be one that went from hot to not.   

...u mite need to broaden the thread to..."never will be hot..." ?....

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 4/11/2024 at 2:04 PM, zadok said:

...u mite need to broaden the thread to..."never will be hot..." ?....

But, today's trends defy my logic on a near daily basis. 

[World Colonial]

On 4/6/2024 at 8:56 AM, cladking said:

Yes!  There are more than a million of them even though some dates are far more difficult than others.  The people who saved them didn't understand statistics or how the world works any better than we do so they weren't efficient in saving equal numbers of each date.  So if there ever are any future collectors it will be a mess as they try to sort out who gets what.

Yes, I also infer some dates are noticeably more common or "scarce" than others, but the scarcity difference is of no practical difference to anyone but you because none will be difficult to buy in any timeframe meaningful to anyone reading our comments, except in the context of TPG labels or mostly US invented specialization.

On 4/6/2024 at 8:56 AM, cladking said:

Your twist that they aren't scarce  is a brand new one. I'm not sure how to counter this.  

Counter what?  Your perpetual exaggeration?

I keep telling you your reference point (1933-1964 US coinage) has no relevance.  If it does to anyone other than you, it's still of no relevance to the market price or anyone's ability to collect it, except in the context I told you which only exists in US collecting to market the idea that common coins are scarce.

I've never heard anyone but you claim US moderns are scarce, once again other than in the fabricated context of US collecting.  I've read from plenty of other collectors claiming common coins are scarce too, but never coins as common as US moderns.

On 4/6/2024 at 8:56 AM, cladking said:

If I told you to go out and look for yourself I'm sure your experience would not be representative of reality either.  

I don't base my claims exclusively or even primarily on my personal observation. 

[World Colonial]

On 4/6/2024 at 9:41 AM, cladking said:

Responding to a post or the argument contained therein is not the same thing as refuting it. You are merely imagining millions of collectors in the '60's and '70's running down to their favorite bank and buying rolls and rolls of nice shiny well made and pristine quarters.  It didn't happen. 

I'm not imagining anything of the sort. You used your dealer experience as supposed evidence that rolls were/'are scarce when it doesn't prove anything.

I've never claimed that millions of collectors did what you are attributing to my comments.  You can't find a single post where I either stated or implied it.

Earlier in this thread, I told you that if only 10% of mint sets remain in the quality we've mostly been discussing (TPG MS-64) which is unreasonably low, that's in the vicinity of 200,000.  You didn't even answer and it's probably due to one of two reasons.

First, you don't believe this supply exists which makes no sense given the availability of the other coinage I used as examples.

Two, you infer or claim 200,000 is "scarce" because 1933-1964 US silver coinage probably exists in comparable TPG (not your) quality in multiples up to 1000.

No one cares other than you.  If anyone else does, it has no market relevance.

This coinage (1965-1998 US moderns) is more common than 99% of all coinage dated prior to 2000 in equivalent market (TPG) quality and that's a fact.  US collectors misjudging the relative scarcity vs.1933-1964 US coinage has no market relevance, except in the context of TPG labels and specialization, most of it invented by US collecting.

[World Colonial]

On 4/6/2024 at 9:41 AM, cladking said:

I was there and watching it.  

Totally irrelevant, still writing as if your personal experience is representative when it isn't.

On 4/6/2024 at 9:41 AM, cladking said:

People who wanted rolls bought them from suppliers who advertised in the coin papers  and sold them for a nominal cost plus shipping and handling.  In those days shipping and handling didn't cost so much but people didn't want these coins at any price so sales were abysmal.  Despite very low sales most of these coins are likely gone or degraded today because they weren't valued by the buyers.  By the same token most mint sets weren't valued by the owners either which is why they are gone too.  

I've already told you dealers not selling coins in volume they can't make hardly any money on doesn't indicate a thing about the scarcity.

On 4/6/2024 at 9:41 AM, cladking said:

Ask your bank if you can get a box of shiny new dimes and let us know what they said.  No, not new quarters, new dimes; accept no substitute! 

So, now we're moving on to box "rarity"?  Roll "rarity" isn't enough?

On 4/6/2024 at 9:41 AM, cladking said:

There are not enough nice attractive BU clads to satisfy a mass market so if one does ever begin price will increase to balance the supply.  

So what?

If it ever happens at scale, it's only going to be due to temporary speculation.  You can't provide any believable scenario where it will happen more than temporarily.

No one needs a roll for their collection.  Yes, a relatively low number "collect" rolls but it's almost entirely at immaterial prices because virtually no one finds owning dozens to thousands of duplicates as a collectible of any interest. Most roll buying at anything above immaterial prices is for financial reasons.  This describes virtually all buying of 1933-1964 US silver coinage + Morgan and Peace dollars too.  That's most of it financially.

You repeatedly attribute imaginary behavior to collectors who don't exist when going by your posts, you've never paid a meaningful premium for any roll either.

Edited April 12 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 4/7/2024 at 10:20 PM, VKurtB said:

In that case, allow me to introduce myself. Solid BU rolls are LEGION in central Pennsylvania. Every coin club auction, every public coin auction, every flea market table, virtually EVERYWHERE. I currently hold about 700ish solid BU rolls. Various dates. My most recent purchase was, all by itself, in excess of 100 rolls.  And other than those, there are about five GALLONS of miscellaneous cents. Am I “normal”. Aw hellz naw. 

Silver or also clad?  Nickels too?  These coins aren't even close to scarce, but cents are common as dirt.

If clad, apparently you actually don't actually own it because clad "wasn't collected".

[World Colonial]

On 4/8/2024 at 2:09 PM, zadok said:

...no, im talking bout bank rolls that collectors ordered or got from their local banks each year not assembled coin rolls from mint sets...example, recent local estate...gentleman died like 20 years ago, his children just got around to selling his coin collection last year through several sessions of auctions due to volume of coins, 42,000 pocket change in coffee cans plus all his whitman blue trifolds n 3000-4000 mint sets n over 2000 bank rolls of nickels, dimes, quarters n halves...he started buying rolls soon after the big rush on 1950-D nickels, his bank rolls ran from 1952-1978 when he quit buying rolls...

Still owe you a response to your last PM, I think.

Don't bother.  I've told him the same thing before, over and over.  If he didn't experience it first-hand, apparently it didn't happen and doesn't exist.  A well-known dealer of US moderns on the PCGS forum claimed a similar thing for himself to your post and stated he knew of others too.  He wasn't specific but the numbers involved aren't low but large, except to someone who insists that "large" must be roughly equivalent to 1933-1964 US coinage.

[World Colonial]

On 4/10/2024 at 4:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I usually don't mind off-topic stuff or segues into other coins....but this whole debate involves coins that haven't ever been hot which is the purpose of this thread !! 

There is no purpose and yes, I'm equally at fault (again) for going down this rabbit hole from which there is no return.

The off-topic direction this thread has taken might be entertaining, but it has nothing to do with actual collecting, at least on this planet.

[World Colonial]

On 4/10/2024 at 6:59 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Tour concept on clad coins is an interesting one.  I think a few things have to change to make your scenario true.  First, as stated, demand needs to increase for clad coins.  This may occur as future generations see moderns as not-so-modern.  But, I also think the whole market needs to increase.  If modern coin prices increase to a level of classic/silver coins, I would surmise that many collectors would rather spend comparable money on the classic coin.  For this reason, I do think that the classics will continue to keep a lid on the moderns.

I could be wrong.  I am still learning the hobby... but, that's what my gut says.

If you are actually interested in this topic, look at the collecting culture.  I've read many times from numerous sources (coin forums, coin articles, and probably books too) that future collector preferences are supposedly a mystery.

You know what these claims have in common?

Every claim or inference is always abstract.  I've never read even one believable explanation supporting anything of the sort.  I've never actually read one at all, only that it's "possible".

Collector preferences aren't a mystery.  It's mostly the coin attributes: origin, design, coin size, scarcity and availability, metal content, quality preference, relative marketability, and how if at all it fits into collections.

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:00 PM, World Colonial said:

If you are actually interested in this topic, look at the collecting culture.  I've read many times from numerous sources (coin forums, coin articles, and probably books too) that future collector preferences are supposedly a mystery.

You know what these claims have in common?

Every claim or inference is always abstract.  I've never read even one believable explanation supporting anything of the sort.  I've never actually read one at all, only that it's "possible".

Collector preferences aren't a mystery.  It's mostly the coin attributes: origin, design, coin size, scarcity and availability, metal content, quality preference, relative marketability, and how if at all it fits into collections.

I find it fascinating that for someone who deals only in what abstractions that others have told him that you would doubt it when they say you can't predict the future.  

Me, I don't believe in anything except that cycles will always exist so what is hot will in the future be not and what is not will in the future be hot.  

That would be a good subject for a thread; what was hot  ...now they're not.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/8/2024 at 8:57 AM, cladking said:

Even if we could find hundreds or thousands of BU roll collectors it would have little impact on the availability of chBU's of most dates.  But the rolls and collectors aren't out there or they'd be visible.  

But their prices AREN'T that high and folks like Zadok are saying they buy hundreds or even THOUSANDS of these coins, solo or in sets, without much difficulty.

You don't need too many people collecting in bulk to have lots of supply.  If only a few hundred thousand Americans collected a few dozen or so sets, that's alot of potential supply, right ?  

 

Edited April 12 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/8/2024 at 2:09 PM, zadok said:

...no, im talking bout bank rolls that collectors ordered or got from their local banks each year not assembled coin rolls from mint sets...example, recent local estate...gentleman died like 20 years ago, his children just got around to selling his coin collection last year through several sessions of auctions due to volume of coins, 42,000 pocket change in coffee cans plus all his whitman blue trifolds n 3000-4000 mint sets n over 2000 bank rolls of nickels, dimes, quarters n halves...he started buying rolls soon after the big rush on 1950-D nickels, his bank rolls ran from 1952-1978 when he quit buying rolls...i attended every auction session n bought just about everything i wanted, silver sold for silver n post 64 sold for face, none of the local collectors wanted rolls of anything...a few came to me n wanted to know if i wanted to sell individual coins or could they go thru the rolls...nada...i wholesaled out the entire lot including the 10,000 circ wheat pennies i had to buy as a lot to get a couple of linc bank rolls i wanted...my one collector son wanted all the 63-64 wash qrts to check for varieties, i personally did not check any of the coins....

The FACE VALUE of that estate of coins must have been several hundred thousand dollars....market value anywhere from 3-20x as much, huh ?  

Hard to believe....you'd never see a 20-year wait on something like that in the NYC area....but I guess Middle America is different.

[J P M]

On 4/11/2024 at 3:24 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

But, today's trends defy my logic on a near daily basis. 

Yes Neo, I am looking at gold rising and then I go to check prices on coins, and many are all dropping like crazy. So I wonder why it works this way? Is it to keep the coin market stable? 

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 12:50 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But their prices AREN'T that high and folks like Zadok are saying they buy hundreds or even THOUSANDS of these coins, solor or in sets, without much difficulty.

You don't need too many people collecting in bulk to have lots of supply.  If only a few hundred thousand Americans collected a few dozen or so sets, that's alot of potential supply, right ?  

 

They are mint set rolls.  Most 1968 to 1999 eagle reverse quarter rolls come from mint sets.  Most mint sets are gone now.  

Original rolls are very unusual and some dates have almost no chance of having any nice chBU coins anyway.  Original rolls have little effect on the supply of clads.  

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 1:54 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The FACE VALUE of that estate of coins must have been several hundred thousand dollars....market value anywhere from 3-20x as much, huh ?  

Hard to believe....you'd never see a 20-year wait on something like that in the NYC area....but I guess Middle America is different.

...no its NYC that is different, nay aberrant n thats being kind...middle america is stable n well armed just in case....

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 4/12/2024 at 8:12 AM, J P M said:

Yes Neo, I am looking at gold rising and then I go to check prices on coins, and many are all dropping like crazy. So I wonder why it works this way? Is it to keep the coin market stable? 

It's weird, right?

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 8:49 AM, cladking said:

They are mint set rolls.  Most 1968 to 1999 eagle reverse quarter rolls come from mint sets.  Most mint sets are gone now.  

Original rolls are very unusual and some dates have almost no chance of having any nice chBU coins anyway.  Original rolls have little effect on the supply of clads.  

...not what i see...i have not seen any mint set assembled rolls... the only assembled rolls i have seen were rolls of proof coins from the '70s....

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 7:49 AM, cladking said:

Most 1968 to 1999 eagle reverse quarter rolls come from mint sets.

This is not only wrong, it MAY be a clinically insane claim. Besides, it’s 1998, not 1999.

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 10:36 AM, zadok said:

...no its NYC that is different, nay aberrant n thats being kind...middle america is stable n well armed just in case....

NYC is a complete loony bin, numismatically, and in nearly every other way. As for being well-armed, I will bet good money that firearms outnumber folks in my neck of the woods by 5-10 to 1 at least. Just checking the number of visible gun racks in pickup trucks leads me to that conclusion. Every estate sale I’ve been to has guns and an impressive sized gun case. 

Edited April 12 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 1:52 PM, VKurtB said:

NYC is a complete loony bin, numismatically, and in nearly every other way. As for being well-armed, I will bet good money that firearms outnumber folks in my neck of the woods by 5-10 to 1 at least. Just checking the number of visible gun racks in pickup trucks leads me to that conclusion. Every estate sale I’ve been to has guns and an impressive sized gun case. 

...yeppers n everyone i know has more than one gun...we do not have instances of thugs, hoodlums (unemployed, uneducated) roaming the streets n hitting the elderly, women, disabled...here they would be shot n no questions asked...NYC needs a huge vigilante presence, one with a mission of eradication....

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 12:59 PM, zadok said:

...yeppers n everyone i know has more than one gun...we do not have instances of thugs, hoodlums (unemployed, uneducated) roaming the streets n hitting the elderly, women, disabled...here they would be shot n no questions asked...NYC needs a huge vigilante presence, one with a mission of eradication....

But what we DO have down here is guys wearing shirts and hats from one of two major colleges, who possess no obvious signs of having seen the inside of even a high school classroom. Me? An American Numismatic Association shirt and an NGC baseball cap. Sitting in a physical therapist’s waiting room trying to find a position that doesn’t make my incision wound ache. 

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 2:03 PM, VKurtB said:

But what we DO have down here is guys wearing shirts and hats from one of two major colleges, who possess no obvious signs of having seen the inside of even a high school classroom. Me? An American Numismatic Association shirt and an NGC baseball cap. Sitting in a physical therapist’s waiting room trying to find a position that doesn’t make my incision wound ache. 

...ur surgery successful?...hopefully u have a good therapist, it helps immensely, maybe if u got a cap with a red elephant on it u would feel less pain...

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 1:08 PM, zadok said:

...ur surgery successful?...hopefully u have a good therapist, it helps immensely, maybe if u got a cap with a red elephant on it u would feel less pain...

This is my wife’s therapist’s office. My surgery is too recent for any PT. They had to go deep on mine. It’s an ouchie. Finding a good position to sleep is a bear. At least I can drive. I’m taking no pain meds so one of us can drive. She’s on some serious 💩. 
 

The stitches come out the 24th. 

Edited April 12 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 2:12 PM, VKurtB said:

This is my wife’s therapist’s office. My surgery is too recent for any PT. They had to go deep on mine. It’s an ouchie. Finding a good position to sleep is a bear. At least I can drive. I’m taking no pain meds so one of us can drive. She’s on some serious 💩. 
 

The stitches come out the 24th. 

...i slept in a recliner for two months...i had to eliminate virtually all pain meds, apparently they tend to do serious long term damage to ones kidneys, perhaps single malts will suffice....

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 1:19 PM, zadok said:

...i slept in a recliner for two months...i had to eliminate virtually all pain meds, apparently they tend to do serious long term damage to ones kidneys, perhaps single malts will suffice....

I still have not cracked open my bottle of Dalwhinee I brought back from Scotland.