EagleRJO

Bingo, you win the kewpie doll ... According to the WGC only about 40% of gold produced is held as an investment (e.g. bars and coins), with about the other 60% "consumed" for jewelry (50%) and general industry (10%). But which sane person throws out old gold jewelry, which is typically held like an investment or reclaimed by melting it down and using it for other things. And of the 10% "consumed" by general industry for things like electrical connectors, gold flakes or leaf's, fillings, etc., a part of that is also likely reclaimed whenever practical due to its value. So, it's probably like 5% of the gold produced is actually "consumed" and the other 95% is used to perpetuate our mass psychosis.

Solid advice from these guys as usual. I'm just curious if you intend on keeping the coin collection and adding to it, in which case it would be worth the effort to spend time really becoming familiar with grading coins and assessing the value, particularly grading coins, or if you intend on selling the collection and just need a better idea of overall value. I guess I assumed you intend on keeping the coins and possibly making it a hobby, which I am finding is really interesting and enjoyable, since you were asking about the best way to protect the coins from deterioration (more of a longer-term issue) and not just damage, as well as determining a value. But if you do plan on selling the set you may want to show it to a couple of coin shops in your area to get a better idea on overall value, and maybe go with one that you feel comfortable with, and think is giving you an honest assessment. I still wouldn't just jump at the first good offer, and would spend some time checking values, particularly if some want to break up the set and only buy certain ones.

Well, would you say there are "noticeably lower prices" right now? I would say yes, but not necessarily agree that it's a good time to buy. Prices could drop further, and I don’t see a well-defined bottom pivot point yet. Also, about the relative value of gold you guys have been bantering about, I think you really need to look at the historical inflation adjusted gold spot prices, and not how much gold it would take to buy certain items at various points in time. I can't believe I am helping you guys continue this debate [] but attached is the CPI adjusted spot gold prices from 1950 to 2021. Sorry Colonial, it doesn't go back farther than 1950 because the price of gold prior to around that time was artificially fixed from the early 1970's and back, so it really isn't meaningful in terms of discussing current valuation. Seems like to me the charts would be a better reference in general, even for current pricing, as they would even out bidding anomalies from say individual auctions where 2 people really want a coin, to the opposite end where maybe there is no reserve and less than anticipated interest. So, the charts would smooth those out and also fill in the usual gaps for particular years/mints/grades as long as they are using reasonable valuation metrics.

For gold bullion I just don't see the significant downside risk you are referencing, at least for the short-term to mid-term. I agree with GoldFinger that even if they have found a huge gold deposit in the ground, which I am taking with a huge grain of salt, it's going to be quite a while before they can get it out of the ground, processed into gold bars, and then added to existing bullion stock such that it could have an effect on the supply side of spot prices. IDK about it being 15 to 20 years, but it's not going to be any time soon. They have to first investigate and map out potential deposits, perform and analyze drill testing, re-map potential deposits based on the drill testing, perform more drill testing, etc. and then build the infrastructure needed to process and refine the gold. They just don't have the capability to do that on their own either, so they would have to get some of the big boys involved which is more time. I just don't see it as being another episode of the Discovery channel's Gold Rush . Now gold futures or options, which I think of as legalized gambling, is another story.

@Mr.Bill347Just curious how you found that, because I have some older world coins I need to eventually go through? Did you recognize the type of coin in general and then looked it up? Or did you do a visual google search and then drill down from there?

Parking lot coin?

Great reference book. As a newer collector I am finding the Red Book [RB] to be extremely helpful. Many sections in my RB are already getting wear from constant use, not only for mintages (indication of rarity) and approximate values of coins once you get an idea of the grade, but in initially figuring out the grade of a coin to begin with. Figuring out the grade of a coin is the tough part as a newer collector in my opinion. At the beginning of each section for a particular type and date range of coins (e.g. "MORGAN 1878-1921") is a brief description/history of the coin and then, the golden nugget, some guidelines on grading those specific coins which has really helped me. Those grading descriptions in the RB, along with the descriptions/photographs for various coin grades available on the PCGS website here ... PCGS Grading Standards or www.pcgs.com/grades/ ... are really helping me with figuring out grades. And I would stick with just trying to figure out an "adjectival" grade first, with just the letters, to start (e.g. PR for Poor and VF for Very Fines). Once you get that, you can then go a little further and add the number grade (1 thru 70) to that letters grade if needed, but the differences can be very minor and hard to pick up at first. There may also be various articles available on the web for grading specific types of coins (e.g. Morgans) with photographic example grades, which I found to be more helpful than the general photographic grades on the PCGS website. Once you think you have figured out a grade, you can then do a web search for that coin and grade to look at examples that have been graded by NGC or PCGS for comparison. And I am also finding the RB helpful related to buying coins, because I am trying to stick with more common and less expensive coins initially until I have more experience. For that I can go to the RB and look at the various years, mint marks and grades for a particular type of coin I may be interested in, and easily be able to see which years, mint mark and grades are less expensive in general. For values I hope you bought the latest 2023 edition of the RB, which I am finding is pretty close but a little on the low side sometimes versus what coins may be going for now, but if not I don't think it's a big deal as there is plenty of more current pricing info on the NGC and PCGS sites. And don't be afraid to post questions you have here on the board. There are a lot of really knowledgeable people regularly on the board who are willing to basically donate their time to help newer collectors like us, which is awesome and much appreciated. Which article? I see a link in his post to the NGC explorer, but not an article.

Thanks for the heads up and yes, I am aware of that. I understand it's particularly an issue with early gold quarter eagles and half eagles (great, the exact ones I like ... lol). Even for common years and mint marks, which surprised me at first, but it makes sense. Like other coins I collect, I prefer raw coins in general, hands-down, which are less expensive and for me more enjoyable to collect. That is unless it's a really expensive coin where you really need the protection. How do you hold that recent purchase of a nice shiny or interesting coin when it's locked away in a utilitarian, plastic coin coffin? I am comfortable getting lower to moderately priced raw coins from one of the larger dealers like Apmex, JDB and MCM which I don't think are going anywhere and have a reputation to protect, just in case one gets by the quality controls they have, because they do handle quite a lot of coins. Etsy and eBay are a completely different story. And about the larger dealers, has anyone heard of those guys ever selling a counterfeit coin and not making it right if it's discovered or doesn't grade out because of that?

Well, I don't own the thread ... ... and it was really about if I wait to buy some gold coins will I regret not getting them sooner rather than later since I think the spot price of gold is low now, and waiting will likely mean buying those gold coins at a higher market spot price. So, discussing the valuation of gold as a commodity is relevant. Apparently not, because you guys are just talking past each other now and going in circles again. I am waiting for one of you guys, say GoldFinger just for example, to say ala SNL style ... "Colonial, you ignorant slut" ... As long as you are going in eyes wide open that historically it's not a good long term investment vs say the market, and that you may have to hold it for longer than expected if there are some unexpected swings like at present. You are right that it is recommended for a portion of your holdings or funds to be in Real Assets, like gold or ETFs that only hold gold (not the ETF's linked to mining companies). I do buy gold as a real asset I can hold in my hand that I know will always be worth something, unless say aliens land and show us how to make gold from sand, and maybe even to barter with. Plus, it's shiny with a mint finish . I also buy gold as a near-term investment if I think I can get the value right. It's really hard to spot buy gold, even for experts, so I try to be cautious and only buy after what looks like a clear low pivot point and break it up into chunks to short-term dollar cost average the bulk buy just in case I get it wrong. I also typically buy bars that are either 1 troy oz or 100 grams, as it is still fairly liquid with a decent volume discount. I do agree with GoldFinger that those references just aren't valid, either for or against the present relative valuation of gold, even theoretically. It's just a stone cold fact that the spot price of gold prior to the early 1970's was set at a continuous artificially fixed price for three centuries leading up to that in the US, and as far back as Roman Times in general ... Gold Price History From 30 BCE to Today (thebalance.com). For historical data and references I tend to stick with info from the World Gold Council as the "gold standard" for that ... lol. And about that, attached is the all-time historical price chart for gold with the maximum available range according to the World Gold Council. Notice where it starts at a relative value of zero. Plus, wasn't gold supposed to be a good hedge against inflation (yea, I know with "everything else being equal"), and not as reactive to massive stock market fluctuations, just like ... ahhheem ... crypto currency? So much for that. Just my 2 (Indian head) nickels.

Also, while doing a little research on silver dollars I discovered a couple of interesting things I didn't know. The first is that the Coinage Act of 1792 not only set the weights/composition of the silver dollar, as well as the gold $10 Eagle, $5 Half Eagle, $2.50 Quarter Eagle and other smaller coins, but also established the "mill" or 1/10th of a cent. Thats how we got gas prices like $4.69 & 9/10th. The Spanish-American silver dollar, which the 1792 act was to replace, was often broken up into fractional parts for convenience. The silver dollar would first be broken in half, then those halves could be broken in half again giving you 1/4 pieces, and finally those 1/4 pieces were sometimes broken down in half one last time to get "bits", or a total of 8 fractional pieces of a silver dollar if completely broken up. That completely broken up Spanish silver dollar was sometimes called "bits of 8" or "pieces of 8" as people were regularly breaking them up for common use on lesser valued items or as change. The interesting part was that 2 bits was 1/4 of a silver dollar worth 25 cents. Hence the term "2 bits" was used for "quarters" (equal in value to 1/4 of a silver dollar), which continued for quite a while. Also, in 1854 it was proposed to have larger value gold coins for trade including a $100 "union" coin, a $50 "half-union" coin and a $25 "quarter-union" coin. Apparently, they never struck any of those coins, and only a pattern for the $50 half-union exists. But who knows, maybe they did strike some $50 half-unions as proofs to try it out. And if you can find one of those, I think it would be retirement time in the Bahamas ... lol.

I would not use any spot prices of gold prior to the early 1970's in evaluating even relative valuation from any point of view, particularly for bullion which is what I am more familiar with. The value of gold available in the US has been fixed in one way or another starting around 1717 when Isac Newton, as Master of the UK mint, introduced a gold-based currency standard and set a fixed price of gold for that country. This was essentially the fixed price of gold that the US established indirectly with the Coinage Act of 1792. That act established a bi-metallic gold-silver monetary system in the US, as figured out by Alexander Hamilton, with the silver dollar as the standard containing a fixed amount of pure silver (22.06g for a 26.96g coin, or 89.24%) and a fixed gold-silver value ratio of 15. This set the price of silver at $1.29 per troy oz and gold at 15 times that or $19.39 per troy oz. Then in 1834 the gold-silver ratio was raised to 16, which resulted in a gold price of about $20.69/oz. They also changed to using silver that was 90% pure. Those two things resulted in changes to the weight of gold and silver coins. The US bi-metallic gold-silver standard continued until 1900 when the Gold Standard Act changed that to link the value of a dollar to just gold at a fixed value of about $20.67/oz. That $20.67/oz gold currency basis continued until 1933 when FDR took the U.S. off the gold standard during the great depression and required everyone to turn in their gold at that fixed price. Then, after FDR had pretty much confiscated everyone's gold at that relatively low price (the "Great Government Gold Heist of 1933" lol) he had the U.S. change the fixed gold currency basis to $35/oz so it was more favorable for the U.S. That $35/oz fixed price continued until Nixon had the gold-based currency tossed for a free-market gold valuation in the early 1970's, starting with a change in the value of gold in 1972 to $38/oz and then one last one in 1973 to $42.22/oz. So, the price of gold in the US has been officially fixed since the late 1700's thru the early 1970's, even though actual or world markets did vary somewhat, which was a downside to having a fixed precious metals-based currency. Thats why historical price charts for the US value of gold prior to the early 1970's are not very meaningful, and are often just stopped around 1973.

@J P MashokeThat is a really nice gold coin, and one of the early 1900's half eagles I was looking into getting in AU grade (see above), or possibly going up to MS grade if not too much more, although I would likely have to then get it in a slab coffin ... lol. I can see why it's one of your favorites.

Nice coin, although not one of the more expensive CCs. That's cool you found one in what looks like a GSA holder.

For bullion investing many, myself included, ignore anything prior to about 1970 including before 1933 for the reason you noted. For any effect on gold coin prices, I wouldn't know but assume you would for similar reasons.

For now, I am just looking into 1 or 2 early $5 Gold Half Eagles, and then maybe 1 or 2 early $20 Gold Double Eagles in the more common years. However, I really like these coins and I have a feeling once I get a few in my hands (literally) I will really like them and my bullion buying days will be over ;-). I may end up adding a number over time, and I do want them to all fit together. So, I am thinking to target an AU grade which appears will be reasonable for most in general, and then of course go up in grade to an MS if not too much more or drop down a grade to an XF minimum overall for less common ones. IDK, I was just checking out the link you gave me before that that for pricing ... referenced below: Just kidding, because I have referenced the NGC pricing guides often which I find very handy, and the basis auction prices can be viewed right there by just clicking on the table link, which are mostly the HA and GC auctions anyway. See the attached example for one I was looking into which was a 1909-D $5 Indian Head Half Eagle. The graphs are just a visual representation of the auction prices. I'm just not seeing the large recent price drop of around $700 for the Saints you are referring to, or for the Half Eagles either, and only see the $700 drop for an AU-58 $20 1909-D Saint. I don't see the same drop for other grades/years. Maybe you could post a screenshot of what you are referring to.

Interesting that only the AU-58 grade for a 1909-D Double Eagle dropped about $700 recently, including a $525 drop over 5 days at the end of March earlier this year, while all the other grades (including AU-55 and MS-60) for that year/mint, as well as other years/mints around that time, were either mostly flat or had a drop of about $100 from the beginning of the year. I wonder if anyone on the forum knows why that happened, with a wag being that a bunch of AU-58 were submitted/graded around then. I understand there are many factors that can affect the price of a coin, so I guess my last question was really an oversimplification of a very complex issue. In any event I have been looking at lower grades like XF-45 or AU-50 which are a little less expensive but still look really good, at least to me, and are commonly available raw which I prefer. A $100 difference, or roughly a 5% drop in price for a common double eagle, doesn't correlate with a 16% drop in gold bullion or very poor overall market conditions. So, it's not looking like in a few months I will be kicking myself for not getting some of the gold coins I like when the price of gold was way down.

If I see a 1909-D or 1913-S $20 Saint-Gaudens Gold Double Eagle AU coin (with the lower mintages) going for about what others in the 1909 thru 1916 range are going for does that mean either: (1) the others are overpriced; (2) there may be an issue with those coins (cleaned, not AU, etc.); or (3) it might be a good deal to scoop up. I'm not sure if the lower mintages are that significant in terms of collectability or if there may be other factors in play. Also, is it redundant referring to them as both "$20" coins in addition to "Double Eagles" like above as that essentially means the same thing?

Not a big deal because even with the massive drop I'm at a break even less the spread. I did end up buying at a relative low point not much above spot and didn't sell earlier this year, even though prices were dropping, because I didn't like the alternatives and decided to hold it for the near term. I probably will end up buying some more bullion, instead of some coins, if it looks like there is another well-defined bottom pivot I can identify. I just feel sorry for people who bought earlier this year near the high and can't hold it till it recovers. [Plus, I still have a bunch from a previous buy at what turned out to be another low pivot point in March of 2020 at about $1,475/oz where I am still up vs the current spot at about $1,725/oz. As long as Russia doesn't screw things up to badly as one of the top producers of gold in the world, I think there will be a pretty quick rebound.] I hear you. Seems particularly true with the gold coins I am looking at, with more numismatic value well above spot even for the more common XF/AU grades.

It's more like a $325/oz swing for me, up and then completely back down again, after getting a bunch of gold bullion as well as some gold coins in early April 2021 where it looked like a low pivot with spot at around $1,725/oz, up to $2,050/oz in early March 2022 (I knew I should have sold then, darn ... lol), and now back down to around $1,725/oz again. Thanks Putin ... lol. So that's a $325/oz or 16% drop of bullion just in the last 4 months, but I haven't seen the same drop in some gold coins I was watching, like a 1910 $20 gold double eagle and now more recently the $5 gold half eagle. It seems like they have come down a little, but nowhere near the drop in bullion. And still with a significant premium over spot like Colonial was saying. Same for the XF/AU coins, which are more of the "in-your-hand" style for me. You might be right about all that extra money floating around, combined with the market tanking and people maybe looking for more tangible alternatives. So, it looks like I am going to just be patient and see where the prices go over the coming months.

I find as a newer collector I am constantly going to the Red Book to check approximate values, mintages, prices for a particular year/mint, comparison of prices to other years/mints or even other types within a category, which are right there, and then the grading tips specific to a coin which I find extremely useful along with the PCGS grade guidelines. Maybe over time I will have a better handle on much of that and just need to maybe check pricing. But for now some of the pages in my RB are getting worn out ... 😆 Then from there I start looking at what maybe some more experienced collectors go to right off including NGC $ PCGS price guides and then for in-depth prices for a specific type/year/grade coin I look at HA or GC auction prices. I also had a trial subscription to the Greysheet price guidelines. But with all the other resources available and the feeling it was geared more towards dealer wholesale pricing, I didn't continue the subscription. Just my two (Indian head) nickels

FYI, if you are getting into coin collecting you should have a Red Book which has really helpful specific grading descriptions for each type of coin at the beginning of those sections, along with a brief history of those coins.

Yes, I love eagles, go figure you could tell 😉. Very majestic and powerful creatures in nature, and I'm glad it is used on a lot on US coins and why I gravitate towards collecting ASEs, Gold Eagles, Morgans and more recently Half Eagles and Double Eagles as well as some late 1800s to early 1900's German coins which I also am adding to the collection (like the attached, and I have a bunch from the early 1900's). Sounds like you guys have quite the Double Eagle expert in your mists, and some earlier comments make more sense now. Who would have thought ... ;-). Good thing to know since I am interested in adding some Double Eagles to the collection eventually. I have bought a bunch of gold bullion as well as gold ETFs as an investment and hedge over the years, so I am familiar with spot prices, price spreads or bid/ask prices, order boards, pivot points, and volume discounts for gold. But getting into buying gold coins (other than bullion coins) is a newer endeavor for me, where my experience with bullion seems to only be partially related to gold coins that are mostly of numismatic value. So, I have been looking into prices, availability, auctions like at HA and GC, etc. and it just seems like prices are over inflated right now, and why I decided to post the topic. Thanks for the help and insight guys.

I did lump them together in terms of what I find appealing, but my question for now is really specific to the early 1900's Indian Gold Half Eagle since that would be first on my add list. I am getting the feeling that I should hold off on getting that coin for a while.

That may be why I don't see lower grades on the larger dealers' sites. But if I look at that 1911 half eagle in XF grade (and other ones that are early 1900's) dealers are asking for a little over $700 (more for a TPG slabbed one). But spot value would be about $424 for that coin, with a weight of 0.242 troy oz and a current spot price at about $1,750 an oz. So, does that mean prices for those coins I mentioned even in XF or AU grades will not really be affected by spot prices that much?

I don't collect sets of gold coins due to the cost, but I really like some of the ones produced over time, so I have a handful of them. Some of the ones I really like are the gold half eagles and double eagles, and I think the early 1900's $5 Indian Gold Half Eagles (see pic) in particular look really nice with no edge and the sunken relief, as well as the early 1900's $20 Saint-Gaudens Gold Double Eagles. So, I am looking into adding one or both early 1900's XF/AU gold Half Eagles or Double Eagles when the price is right. I am not sure if historically the price for these coins are significantly affected by the spot price of gold, which is pretty low now, or if the price is more affected by collector demand which seems to still be high now. It seems like current prices are a little above RB/NGC book values, so waiting for a while may be better even though spot prices will likely go back up, but I'm not sure. Any insight would be appreciated.