GoldFinger1969

Same reason some people (more) collect art....and some collect classic cars (fewer).....and some collect stamps....or comic books....or movie props....or whatever. To me, the interesting thing is that you have the POTENTIAL for certain series to slide between pure bullion collectors and pure numismatic collectors. Saints, Libertyt's, Morgans, and the various Eagle/Half-Eagle/Quarter-Eagle collectors I would include in that bunch. Again, I segued into Saints from bullion and a stray purchase of the 2009 UHR. Well, the 1933 Double Eagle was purchased by a non-collector, Stuart Weitzman. I agree that large numbers are unlikely as per your post....but I think it's increasing. The big potential is that there are more wealthy and super-wealthy people that if they accidentially get into coins or if they re-discover a passion they had as youths, you get some Big $$$ into the hobby. Not saying it's good or bad, just saying they're there and SOME OF THEM are going to wander in. The art world never or rarely had Wall Street types buying 30 or 50 years ago. Today, they are a constant source of buying. But lots more with liquid financial net worths over $50 MM and $20 MM and even $10 MM. If you have $10 MM in financial assets and homes largely or fully paid for (primary, vacation or shore)...that's ALOT of financial firepower to put into coins. You can spend 5% on PM's/coins and that's $500,000. I'm not predicting that is going to happen....I'm saying this is a hobby where you get a small increase in the general population buying....or a tiny increase in the wealthy buying.....or a MINISCULE increase in the super-wealthy buying....and you are talking Big $$$.

I don't think it was the average coin collector; if anybody, maybe the dealers.

I always considered myself unique but maybe I'm not. Look, could I see myself spending $250 on a really nice Lincoln Penny or Jeffereson or Buffalo Nickel or some quarter just to add to my collection ? Sure....but I would be shocked if I added more than 1 or 2 more in my lifetime. Not so the other 4 categories you listed above.

That's still true even if it is UNFAIR. No doubt, 1 or 2 or 3 heavy-hitters with Big $$$ can skew a previously smoothly functioning coin market and price. That's the risk that we all run. I get what you are saying, yet at the same time...NOBODY complains when the same heavy-hitters will skew prices upward for stuff they ALREADY own. With crypto people were trying to make $$$. Hopefully, that isn't the case with coins or bullion. Nobody "enjoys" investing in crypto or BitCoin. You should enjoy this hobby and the thrill of the chase and finding and reading about rare coins and coins you want in your own personal collection.

YES !!! Managed to get a used copy of Bowers Liberty Double Eagles book for under $20....brand-new, I saw it a few years ago for $300. I haven't seen many new or used for sale.Since I don't collect Liberty DEs I really didn't want to pay full retail for the book but to get it for under 1/10th the new price it's worth it to read and have in my personal coin book library. Probably a very limited press run given the niche subject matter and the cost of the book new.

Yeah, very interesting....and in an other article talking about the Bass Auction he mentioned a coin that was AGGRESSIVELY cleaned.....you could EASILY see the hairlines from cleaning in the upper left quadrant of the coin, an 1833 Quarter Eagle which was graded PCGS PR63 Cameo. It did not CAC. They were plain as day, even to me, and the coin still got a grade in the 60's. https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/10/3/six-bass-i-coins-i-liked-an-analysis

Roger, if you struck those HR's exactly the same with the same dies and polish and same force....but one HR was on a regular toggle press from that era and the other was on the medal press from that time.....how would they compare ?

Was that letter about the 1st 1933 DEs being struck on March 2nd that you found....in the archives solo or digitized ? How did you find something like that ? Did you do a keyword search under "Bartholomew" ??

WC, 40 or more years ago, only the Truly Rich could pay big prices for coins and pursue the top-end of registries or whatever they were called back then. Most of the famous collections were owned by wealthy businessmen or people from families with Big $$$. Remember, back then being called a MILLIONAIRE was a big thing (ask Thurston Howell III !! ). Today....the number of people with unlimited $$$ greatly exceeds that from 30 years ago let alone 50 years ago. Just imagine 1 or 2 coin collectors as kids who work in Silicon Valley and now are each worth $50 MM at age 32 -- nothing compared to the real winners out there. But those young adults can now EASILY spend MILLIONS on coins. Decades ago, if they were each successful, they might have tens of thousands to spend assuming they were willing to part with dollars that were more dear (because they didn't have as much) because maybe they made $150,000 a year when the average salary was $25,000 a year. It doesn't take many super-rich folks to enter this hobby and drive up prices, especially if they either throw Big $$$ around or focus on Top Pop coins. Doug Winter's blog mentioned he was recently contacted by a wealthy venture capitalist who was all set to spend Big $$$ assembling a collection before it got too "confusing" for him and dropped the idea.

Nice article on what to look for in buying an MCMVII High Relief by Doug Winters: https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/12/13/what-i-look-for-when-im-buying-an-uncirculated-1907-high-relief-double-eagle Bookmark his blog, he has lots of other good articles especially if you are into Carson City gold, Liberty DEs, and small denomination gold coins pre-1900. He doesn't write as much on Saints but does every now and then.

There were lots of big banks in the cities where the Mints were.....why were they even doing pay-outs and accepting deposits if regular banks could do that ? Why not just strike coins and give tours ?

Since you brought up research and the NNP....do you know if the original Louis Froman (Buffalo) letter asking about gold exchanges was saved and is in the NNP ? I know it was referenced by Mint higher-ups in 1933. I'm wondering if there were other exchange letters sent in to the 3 Mints or if that isn't something that would have been saved and thus on the NNP. Might be too niche.

You're saying Americans are buying non-PM British coins, the equivalent of our pennies, nickels, and quarters ? Or is it silver and gold coins like British crowns and the like ?

Sounds about right. When you say 2 MM "active" collectors, you mean ADULTS as opposed to kids being guided by their parents I take it ? What IS the price range for an 1884-CC Morgan, GSA or non-GSA ? Agreed. You can keep alot of Morgans as inventory compared to other coins.

Doug Winters blog has some great insights into various areas of the coin market. Even though I often am not interested in the particular coins, it's good from a macro perspective to see where the $$$ are flowing. He has good insight. https://raregoldcoins.com/blog?category=Market Blog His column on the Bass Part 1 sale was great. Unreal that Harry Bass bought an 1860 Liberty Double Eagle (PCGS PR 65+ CAMEO/CAC) for $2,200 in 1970 and held it for 53 years !!! Realized $1MM ex-bp; that's 12.5% a year which is one of the highest returns for a major coin I can recall. Usually, the returns are mid-single digits.

I thought this article talking about the post-2020 price explosion in Trophy Coins by Doug Winters was fantastic and very interesting even though I don't really look too closely at the smaller gold coins esp. pre-1900: https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/10/18/the-million-dollar-liberty-head-eagle "Before the Trophy Coin Era (which really began in earnest around 2020), the price of rare coins went up incrementally. A coin like an AU 1875 eagle was worth $150k in the 2000s, $250k in the early 2010s, and $350k in the early 2020s. Given its price history, one would have expected the next price increment for this date to have been $450k (maybe even $500k) in 2022. But this isn’t how values work today, and as a result we have yet another record price which is multiples higher than the previous peak of $372,000."

Coin prices, purely numismatic or bullion, are ultimately set by supply and demand. If more people get into the hobby, prices will rise, all other things equal. To what extent will depend on how many, how much money they bring to the table, and the relative elasticities for the particular coins they pursue. You would most likely see a big increase in the "starter" coins like pennies, nickels, and Morgans. I wonder what would happen if you had lots of bullion investors "discover" Saints and/or Liberty's (or other foreign gold coinage) and make a move there ? Similarly if silver investors decide to not only buy bullion Morgans but more numismatic ones, too. Once you buy the circulated and investment coins in lower grades, you usually get the "bug" to buy a few of the nicer-looking ones. How many depends on the person.

Some examples of what I am talking about, along with a few that resisted this trend: MCMVII HR....An MS-63 for $28,000 IN 2005-06 and now down to $22,000 for the most part last 15 years. Trickle of supply from Europe may be weighing on prices last 5-7 years. 1908 Motto MS-65.....$23,000 to $28,000 from 2005-08....then a decline over the next decade-plus to $12,500 with a short spike to $18,000 in 2016. 1909/08.....flattish give/take a few hundred dollars north or south of $5,000 for an MS-63. 1922....$4,000 give or take 20% higher/lower since 2005 for an MS-65. 1928....MS-65 went for $1,500 back in 2006 to 2009 peak of $2,800 and tracks gold since to current $2,500. MS-67 went for about $10,000 in 2006 to $14,000 in recent years but recent spike in late-2022 to $20,000 could be an outlier or bad data. 1929 AU58....$10,000 15 years ago....$20,000 today; MS-63 from $23,000 to $42,000 today; MS-65 from $45,000 to $113,000 a few years later and $85,000 today. 1932.....An AU-58 went for $18,000 15 years ago and has been steady at about $30,000 last few years. For me, I find it fascinating and interesting to check the long-term charts and graphs of coin prices over time...you can see the movements along with the gold price....reaction to anomalies in the sales price....how various years and mintages responded to big or small hoards....etc. I find it somewhat analagous to how the stock market "burns off" the excess of a bubble....you initially have the sky-high valuation collapse of its own weight....then the valuation falls....it bumps along a bottom.....continues to decline at a slower rate....the whole process can take 10-12 years, sometimes longer. Gold itself has exhibited this pattern.

I think the 1884-CC price issue and the amount you would need to satiate the 1901 Morgan demand are related. It's all about satisfying enough of the Top Registry and then Type & Collector demand. These are the first 2 sets of demand for a coin; the third would be the Investor class who are looking to buy Morgans strictly as a silver play (similar to those who buy low-grade Saints or commons for spot gold). The differeence is.....you only need about 25-30,000 to satiate the 2 demand groups for Saints before you have enough to drive the price down for the Investor class to the price of the metal (gold). For Morgans, given the much lower entry price to collect this American classic, you probably have over a million collectors and buyers which probably explains why even the plentiful 1884-CC supply can't satiate the demand. Even hundreds of thousands of collectors is probably enough demand to absorb more of the coins, since unlike with Saints or higher-priced coins, collectors might get 2 or 3 of a particular year/mintage. JMHO.

Scarce & Condition Rarity Coin Prices, 2005-2022: I'm just going by the NGC price graph (which could have bad data)....it's not as accurate as punching-up select sales on HA or GC.....but it appears that certain more-scarce or more-rare coins like a 1908 Motto (as opposed to a 1908 No Motto) have gradually been SINKING as their fat premiums to gold and/or a big rise about 15 years ago slowly dissipates...or more supply hits from Europe, U.S. SDBs, etc. I do NOT see the same for pricey coins in condition rarity grades like a 1924 or 1927 Saint. They never had the run-up 15 years ago and haven't had the same $$$ decline as gold fell and/or more supply hit from wherever the lst 5-10 years. This seems to be the Saints -- and maybe it applies to other coins -- which are neither considered commons nor super-rare but those in-between as scarce or semi-scarce. Do some of you vets agree ?

On the 1933 DE....even if you include the Langbord 10, there are only 11 coins, give or take 1 or 2 still in hiding. To me, that's rare. A TOTAL population of about 1 dozen. On the craze for finest knowns.....I agree it drives up the price of lots of coins, but still there are coins with thousands or tens of thousands that sell at rich premiums to lower-graded coins or their melt value. Maybe it's just me, but I always compare scarcity to BOTH supply and demand, not just supply.

No-Bids: Lots of Saint-Gaudens on GC getting no bids, appears to have picked up from 1-2 years ago when gold was higher and buyers maybe a bit less discriminating. Not sure if GC keeps track of no-bids but would be interesting to numerically compare. I think MOST of these coins would have gotten bids at the stated offer price without any fees but I think the 10-12% bump made a difference with savvy buyers. Even if the offer itself sans fees was too high, maybe just need to come down 5%, 10% tops via negotiation. On Ebay, I see most Saints that go without bids off by closer to 20-25%. All coins PCGS unless otherwise noted. No bids for a 1927 MS-66+ @ $5,500 (coin would have been just over $6K with fees); somewhat surprising since a nice MS-67 can go for $17,000.......a 1927 MS-64 CAC didn't get bids at $2,250 (less surprising)...a 1924 MS-67 didn't get bids at $17,000 (not surprising since it's just under $19K with fees and the 1924 is still plentiful at the 67 grade 2nd to the 1908 NM)....a 1922 MS-63 and MS-64 each went begging at $2,000 and $2,300, respectively....a 1915-S no takers at $3,750....1908 WF NM OGH no bids at $3,750 and another at $3,600...a 1907 Arabic MS-65 no bids at $5,200.

It seems there are very few Liberty collectors compared to Saint-Gaudens given the greatly-reduced population numbers. Does anybody have Bower's Liberty Double Eagle book ?

Auditor to verify that assets backing digital currencies, tokens, and stablecoins are really there. Stopped doing it because basically unless they see it, they aren't sure it's there. If I do an inventory for IBM or Apple, I can reasonbably be sure that the stuff I see in a warehouse in NYC isn't then being shipped to one in Philly that I'll be visiting the next day to fool me....as was done by Crazy Eddie Antar when he would move inventory and merchandise ahead of the auditors to the next store they were auditing.

Ray will have to figure it out.