GoldFinger1969

Agreed.....and yet someone who could spend $2,000,000 on the coin wanted that particular label.

What's a "lo ball collector ?" Why would they do it ? At least the 1927-D Saint owner was clear....he wanted a 1927-D with a CAC sticker and was willing to give up 1/2 grade to get it.

QA, what are your thoughts about buying from online pics ? Personally, I'm OK buying that way for most coins. I'm not sure I'd buy a coin costing $3,000 or more that way without a return policy. But less-expensive stuff, no problem. That's one thing the TPGs and the label make a big difference on. If the grade is solid and the pics look good, it's highly unlikely you're going to find a major flaw or deviation that makes you want to return the coin.

WC, if coin shows and dealers and auction sites use the Internet and social media correctly and to its full potentiial, I believe they can grab lots of newcomers to the hobby. I believe the online auction sites have done great in grabbing new bidders and customers (I'm one of them; been on Ebay for 20 years, 10 years for coins, but only joined HA and GC in the last 2-3 years). The key is to NOT oversell or maybe even mention any financial gains. That will only breed disappointment if something none of us can control -- prices -- moves against us.

What about the pictures on HA ? Those are outstanding...high-def....can zoom in....they are also consistent in how they take them. I realize and have seen how lighting and angles can hide things but I think their pics really are fair to the buyer and seller. A different set of angled shots with the lighting adjusted would be the only thing I'd improve on.

Except the owner of that 1927-D Saint who wanted a CAC sticker and accepted MS65+ and CAC..... over MS66 !!!!!

Listen to Mark....post some pics here, using a smarpthone. Closeups of the FBL area would also be nice unless we can zoom in on it.

You make excellent points, Charlie. When I do buy moderns, I usually try for an MS or PF69 rather than paying up for a 70 unless the absolute $$$ or % increase isn't that big. I will say that some of the labels on the modern coins -- like NGC's for the National Park Foundation Saint-Gaudens coins -- are very nice. I probably am unique in that I like how the label LOOKS more than what it SAYS (except the grade).

But the pop census won't go up if someone tries to get a higher grade 20 times and it fails every time. Only successful crack-outs go up a grade or get a "+" or "*". I'd be surprised if any year or mintmark were off by over 100% -- not shocked, but surprised. Liberty and Saint DE's are getting hit by "creeping hoards" from Europe (according to what I read), I would think if the population had falsely inflated because of crack-outs/resubmittances, that you'd see prices lower from dealers who realize prices are out of whack if the numbes are going up (but not because of real supply from Europe, from inflated numbers from TPGs).

Silver & Gold Commemoratives have done horribly the last 10 years and also since the 1989 bubble peak. It's amazing really.....the commemorative index went up 6-fold from the 1980 coin bubble peak up to 1989, they were a fantastic performer in the 1980's. No wonder they sucked in alot of people/investors. Click on the 10- and 50-year charts to see what I am talking about: https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/silver-and-gold-commemorative

Yes, but at what price ? I fear dealer-to-dealer only trades in the future for some of the coin types In the 1950's and 1960's and to an extent in the 1970's, all you could do was coin collecting if you were a kid to occupy your time (that and go outside and play with your friends ). No video games, no Internet, no smartphone, no 150 channels of cable and/or streaming. 3 networks to watch from, plus PBS. Baseball was the national pasttime, everybody played it and watched it and read about it. As our society balkanizes, you wonder.

I believe Ebay plus the regular coin sites (HA, GC, SB) have all seen more bidding, more registrations, and new clients at an acclerated pace since last March. Certainly, the articles I've seen from dealers has been nothing less than thumbs-up: more business and revenues, lower expenses (no travelling). They're in Nirvana. We have to see how many of the newcomers are like me who get pulled in and STAY (12 years ago) as opposed to past times when I drifted away. Unfortunately, I think you are spot-on here. Yeah, if you've seen that Armen Ketayan video on baseball cards ("Tuesday In Parsippany", I think I posted it here or in another thread) or seen the trend in stamps, that would be my ultimate worry.

Yes, fascinating stuff you dug up on the 1921. Usually, most articles (and the few books) focus on TOTAL number of coins available, not the ones in Mint State or Gem or Superb Gem quality. Can't believe Goddard hijacked a coin and didn't get one for the CT Museum. Sometimes I wonder if a child or grandchild has inherited a few coins they don't know the worth of and they might come out in the future, like the 1921's. Though you figure that they likely would have been sold during previous manias in 1980 or 1989 by heirs or descendants or an estate.

And yet, I am reading ATS that some think that these coins have bottomed AND are poised to turn up. An 85% decline in that PCGS 3000 sub-index will do that, I guess. I hope these veteran coin collectors are right -- it will be good for the hobby. Ultimately, however, this hobby and pricing boils down to Supply & Demand. Demographics -- in my opinion -- remain a headwind. Numismatic values across the board are highly volatile, but as I spend most of my $$$ on moderns, bullion, Morgans, and Saints....I have (sort of) a floor, especially with stuff that tracks bullion even if it is also partly numismatic. And like you and I agree on, WC.....enjoy the damn coins and don't worry about if they appreciate in price. Although it's always nicer if stuff goes up in price. Unless you are 100% into collecting and don't care about what you paid and what the stuff is worth, in which case it's the opposite of long-term IRA investing: you want lower prices continually since that means the cost of your collection keeps getting cheaper.

The Amazingly Stable 1921 Saint: Earlier, I talked about how Saints had shifted over the years in rarity rankings because of hoards. The 1921 Saint is unique in that it's ranking hasn't changed much in 80 years. There's a decent amount available in circulated and low-60's grades, but only 4 coins at MS64 and above with NOTHING at MS67 or higher. Roger's book has these comments from Akers: "...The standing of the 1921 in the overall hierarchy of Saint-Gaudens double eagle rarities has changed less over the last seven decades than any other regular issue in the series. During that time, some issues have dropped precipitously from their place at the top (1924-S and 1926-S for example) and others have risen substantially (1920-S, 1930-S and especially 1927-D) but the 1921 has always been recognized as being among the top four rarities of the series, both 70 years ago and today, at least with respect to value. The only thing that has changed is the other three coins with it at the top. The 1921 is now considered to be the second most valuable regular issue Saint-Gaudens double eagle, surpassed only by the 1927-D whose extreme rarity was not recognized fully until the 1950s, at least in comparison to other issues in the series. Judged solely on its population rarity, meaning the total number of specimens known in all grades, the 1921 is certainly rare, but not exceptionally so, comparable overall to the 1920-S, but actually less rare than the 1930-S and 1932. However, as a condition rarity it is the unrivaled "Queen" of the Saint-Gaudens series because the condition at which it becomes extremely rare and valuable is lower than for any other issue. Of course, every Saint is a condition rarity at a certain level. For example, any issue is (or would be if one existed) a great rarity in MS68 or 69. For some issues MS67 is the rarity point, for others it is MS65 or MS66. But no issue, not even the 1927-D, is as difficult to locate in MS64 or higher grades as the 1921. Only four or possibly five specimens are known in the MS65 and MS66 grades combined with nothing finer. Even in the MS63 and 64 grades, the 1921 is a major rarity with no more than 12-15 examples known of those two grades combined."

Huh ? How could such a law be proposed or passed or enforced ?

Hey, if you or anybody else likes a particular coin set....that is ALL that matters. Sure it's nice if our coins appreciate down the line but we have to recognize that historical appreciation for American coinage with silver/gold and other metals may have been a confluence of 1-time factors: demographics, U.S. economic supremacy after WW II, not much else to do from 1945-1980 for American kids relative to today (no video games, internet, smartphones etc.), fear of investing in stocks from the 1929 Crash, great returns on famous coin collections sold from 1930-1950, etc. So you had fantastic returns from 1950 onward for decades for many/most U.S. coins. The monetary and financial turbulence of the 1970's just added to the chaos -- and coins like chaos. I'm agnostic if coins can go up here appreciably, but down 85% from 1980 peak levels and less from recent peaks (as I've posted links to the PCGS 3000 indices), I do agree that the coins have a much better risk-return profile. There probably isn't much downside. But not having downside isn't the same thing as ready to move up, especially since coins don't have the levers that stocks do to move up after bottoming. We shall see.

On a serious note, that guy's stash of patterns and coins probably comprised 95% of his estate, maybe 99%. What a dream job even if it only paid maybe $4,000/yr.

Screw buying MSFT or IBM when they were $1 stocks.....I just have to go back to the early-1900's, drive down to Philadelphia, and get me some valuable Saints !! Nellie Ross: "Hey, how'd we do today ?" Cashier: "Some guy bought 50 of the 1933 Saints....only clown to want 'em.....don't even know how he knew we had 'em on March 2nd today. Weird guy....insisted he take a picture of the sales ledger with his name and the 50 coin sale showing. Wanted that AND a receipt. Paranoid nut !"

https://coinweek.com/us-coins/1907-ultra-high-relief-double-eagle-graded-by-pcgs-sells-for-4-1-million/ UHR's have been hot, another one sold for got $3.6 MM in February.

It's almost like you are saying (some) Americans liked collecting SILVER and GOLD coins only, right ? Well, there's always Morgans and Saints.

If it's much worse than you expected or want, you may have a return option with the seller or Ebay. Keep us posted.

$50 isn't an expensive lesson. My friend insisted on buy a RAW 1924 Saint Gaudens and bought a gold-plated fake. Worth maybe $50......he paid $1,600.

Well....you have nicks on the rim....bagmarks on the fields (does the coin have 3 or 4 small ones, or 10-12 bigger bag marks).....are bagmarks/nicks on important features or off to the side.....any gouges, deep cuts anywhere.....are the high-points free of ANY WEAR including "bag wear" even if the coin wasn't circulated ?

Kurt, if the numbers were way out of line by adding PCGS + NGC -- and then making an estimate for double-counting (maybe my 20-30% guestimate).....wouldn't the price of the coins be dramatically different if the raw PCGS+NGC number (with or without the haircut for double-counting) were WAY off ? I agree the numbers may be "off" -- but they still have value. Question is, how much ? And if the numbers are off for the 1924 Saint in various grades, does it matter as much if the total numbers (and grades) are off for the 1927-D or 1930-S (coins with dramatically lower population numbers across the board) ?