GoldFinger1969

Really ? And you've never made a mistake in your life, I take it ? You accuse the TPGs of "insider trading" and fraud....without any proof. You accuse them of money laundering and inside corruption and you state that it is very illegal. Which is true...except you have NO PROOF that they have engaged in any of that. Then you follow that up with a threat to go public. Settle down...state your case....and keep US informed, too. Maybe the TPGs did make an honest mistake in which case I am sure they will be happy to correct it. You state that you have made this a profession....then you must know that the TPGs reputation is built on honesty. They are not a couple of guys working out of Nigeria.

OK, back to the OP...... has anybody bought or looked at silver coins or bars lately ? What's happened to the premiums ? Price of silver itself has done nothing. Mid-20's for months now.

Bad Info: Well, I've seen some 2nd-rate websites incorrectly state that The Wells Fargo Hoard was kept in a Wells Fargo bank over the decades, but as we know, they were there only after Gillio was in the process of buying them. But I actually found the same misinformation stating the coins had been undisturbed since 1917 in a WF branch on the Heritage Auctions website in their archives. It was for an MS68 coin, too, though the text accompanying it was not long and not one of the coins with text likely to be relied on for research purposes (other coins higher-graded or sold more recently are likely to have more in-depth commentary). But I was still surprised to see this error on the website. Maybe I should give someone there a heads-up ?

Inverted vs. Normal Lettering: Finally got the answer, via Heritage commentary from their archives (Heritage and Roger colloborated on the book and their auction write-ups sometimes contain very useful information). When a coin (like the UHR) is held on the edge with the obverse facing you, the words "E Pluribus Unum" are supposed to circle Liberty's head like a crown. When the letters can be read in that position, it is NORMAL lettering -- though they will read upside-down if the coin is flat on a table with the Obverse UP. Conversely, INVERTED lettering will read normal when the coin is flat on a table and Obverse Up -- but the letters are inverted if you try to read them when the coin is facing you with the obverse and you are holding it on edge. I thought the lettering was in relation to being flat on a table -- it is not. It's about the coin being held up to your face with the obverse.

If the coins are genuine, contact someone at NGC (or PCGS) and state your case. Don't lash out.....be respectful, responsible, and put your arguments on paper (or in an e-mail) and ask for a response.

Noted.....I was referring to the Doom-and-Gloom crowd. I actually think there is less froth now than in 2000. Certainly valuation measures are BETTER today. While the valuations of SPACs, EV stocks, and technology, not to mention bond yields, are probably going to re-set, I don't see crashes in the future. Just deep corrections. The end of Bretton Woods, floating/sinking currencies, gas lines and gasoline shocks, double-digit inflation, multiple recessions, credit controls -- outside of HAPPY DAYS and LAVERNE AND SHIRLEY, not much to talk about. Last March 2020. Clearly, the S&P 500 should not have fallen 34% in 5 weeks. Should have bought alot more, my bad. Can also include value stocks last November which took off after the vaccines were about to hit the market.

If you didn't mention specific political personalities and it was just a focus on numbers via economics or finance....I think the punishment was too harsh. I would contact one of the Mods and say you were making a straight-economic argument regarding your point. The 2021 Morgan thread will still be there....you can spruce it up when you get back.

I will say this: financial markets can overreact on the downside just as the upside, but apocalyptic predictions have NEVER paid off. You can't invest or act like financial or global nuclear armageddon is going to happen next week. The doom-and-gloom crown had 1 great decade, the 1970's. Since then, every financial or economic hit has been a great buying opportunity for stocks and signalled a revival for companies, the economy, and the country.

No, it's "travelled" too far from the primary investment account. Should the grocer who took Bernie's money also be held liable ? You have to draw the line somewhere. Had the SEC been more dilligent on outright FRAUD and not on nebulous "insider trading" actions against hedge funds and private individuals, Madoff would have been caught much much earlier. I mean, a 3-man accounting firm auditing a $20 billion money manager ? Self-clearing ? I mean, next to saying that their banking funds were checked and cleared by folks in Bulgaria and Nigeria, I don't know how many more red flags the SEC needed.

I wouldn't worry about it, WC. It took Greece -- a 3rd-rate economy with Socialism taking hold -- 30 years to implode. Even if the U.S. is about to peak, a global reserve financial superpower with the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world and the rule of law and private property rights (well, until AOC takes over ) will take much longer than 30 years to hit the wall.

Again, Bear Stearns was leveraged close to 30:1 whereas JP Morgan is probably closer to 10:1. JPM's asset quality is light-years better than Bear's. Ironically, Bear was never supposed to take the risks it took -- Alan "Ace" Greenburg said BS was supposed to be like a bookmaker, winning no matter which way the markets went. Unless we suffer some global or national catastrophe -- global nuclear war, Yellowstone Super Volcano goes off, etc. -- I don't see how the financial industry suffers a meltdown or the #1 bank in the country approaches insolvency. Even during the 2008 Financial Crisis, JPM and Goldman Sachs each still had $50 billion in equity cushion at the nadir. And that was with systemic risk to the banking system, which is much less than normal economic downturns, even the heart attack we suffered in March 2020 at the height of the pandemic. In 2008, JPM and GS didn't even need or want TARP $$$ but the government forced them to take it.

Some basic lathe information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reducing_Machine They used a Janvier Lathe at the US Mint up to 13 years ago.

But you can't stop doing business at times because you "think" (housing) prices are too high. You can only require more downpayment and/or tighten underwriting standards. There are ALWAYS risks in an economy. After WW II, investors expected the stock market to fall back to 1930's levels throughout the 1940's and 1950's. Government debt is high, but consumer and corporate debt is very manageable. Check out Pages 45 and beyond: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

I think every 1927-D is in the hands of a collector but some of the UHRs are known to NOT be in the hands of regular coin collectors. That can be a problem because trophy coins like that won't be sold quickly by the original holders or their heirs...they hold on FOREVER (multiple decades) and don't feel any need to have them re-circulate into a collection or registry like Steve Duckor or David Akers or today's active collectors do. Indeed, some of the locations of the UHRs aren't known because they have been so infrequently seen (see the CoinWEEK article). Roger's book traces the lineage for all the known coins and many times it's a dead end to present location.

Yeah, and I think she ate cold porridge because she was too cheap to heat it up....I remember reading that in the 1970's !! I guess her other son who didn't lose her leg was the coin collector, Colonel Green. I wonder if Hetty collected -- probably not.

Let us know what you find....I still remember the Continental Illinois Bank Holiday !!

U.S. banks are rock-solid. I've worked for some foreign banks -- they are on life-support. U.S. banking system is the gold standard for banks. Look at who got burned by Archegos. Level 2 and 3 assets are much much lower. Leverage and risk-capital levels have changed dramatically. Banks were levered 30:1 on average in 2007. Today, that leverage is closer to 10:1.....HUGE difference.

As I understand it, from the mid-1800's through the 1930's.....you made a master die on a big 12" or so mold....and then the lathe somehow "shrinks" it down to die-size while maintaining detail and the correct proportions of the fields and devices ? I'm sure this is covered in FMTM, have to re-hit it. I only used a lathe in 8th grade wood shop and as I recall it just held the bowl I was making while I shaved it. Today, it's all digital. Probably started to go digital 30-40 years ago, I'll bet...maybe earlier.

Zad, this spike we are seeing in prices for the UHRs I think is probably a reflection of the fact that even though the population size is close to the 1927-D's, the coin has a larger buying base. The 1927-D hasn't seen an explosion in price. Folks will buy a 1907 High Relief or a 1907 UHR even if they aren't coin collectors because of the uniqueness of the coins. Conversely, unless someone who isn't a coin collector just wants to own the rarest (ex-1933) U.S. Saint, the 1927-D is pretty much like all the other regular business strike Saints. The 1907 HR's and UHR's at least have unique designs and can be considered artistic coins. If there had been more 1933 Saints legal to own in 2002, then Weitzman probably has zero interest in the 1933 Saint he bought.

Just to be clear....your CIRCULATED-MS62 category......70% in MS60-61-62 bucket....and 30% in AU58 and below ? The MS63 10% coins you estimated is already included in the MS63-64 bucket.

Check out the CoinWeek article from 2012 on the 1907 UHRs....the article admits that the PR69 UHR is probably a 67+..... when you send in a coin with a grade already there (regardless of PCGS or NGC), there's an implicit bias to use that as the starting point and grade higher. The same coin submitted raw almost certainly gets a different grade. 1907 UHRs Coin-By-Coin Some funny stories and tidbits in that article, highly recommended even if someone reading this isn't into Saints or UHRs.

Thank You....your book already has MS63-64, 65-66, and 67-68 separate numbers (BTW, I presume you included the sole MS69 Wells in the 67-68 grouping ). So you think 70% (50+20, the 10% MS63 is already segregated in your numbers into the MS63-64 bucket) of your UNC-MS62 coins are MS60-62, and only 20% (30% ??) are in the AU58 and Below bucket ? Interesting.... I am with you here. But since I was just trying to filter out the Mint State 60-62 number from the entire CIRCULATED - MS62 figure, how the coins are slotted below MS60 doesn't matter that much. They are all in the Non-MS bucket. BTW, I mistyped above...your book uses CIRCULATED- MS62 in the pop number (not Uncirculated-MS62)....I corrected it above.

Roger, since you don't have the data at this time (pending recovery).....and since this is NOT for publication or research purposes but for my own curiosity (with an asterisk, of course ).....what percentage would you assign the MS60, 61, and 62 grades for your CIRCULATED - MS62 figure in your population census by grade ? I'm looking for maybe 1 number (2 tops, if you think the rare Saints are different) to do the calculations. Not going to come up with 53 different percentages since this is just a guestimate anyway. How's 50% sound, with 50% also in AU58 and below ? Too high ? Too low ? Barring that, I could use the percentage ratio in Bowers 2004 DE book, but it's more dated data than yours (plus I really don't want to do it for 53 coins). Akers/Ambio doesn't have totals in their book so no go there.

Anybody who thinks that banks are speculating long or short on precious metals prices with the Fed, OCC, Treasury, FDIC, and state regulators all looking at them.....

Rigged Market = One That Won't Do What I Want It To Do