GoldFinger1969

Gotcha....finally... adding up PCGS and NGC population numbers.....20-30% overcounted ? More ? Less ? I realize it varies for each year and mintmark, just wondering if that is a good ballpark in general. I saw that 20-30% figure but can't recall if it was just for Saints or for all coin populations with all the re-submittances leading to double-counting.

Understood, thanks ! I'm sure you spoke to higher-ups at both PCGS and NGC (let alone HA). Did you find their data and anectdotal information on crackout numbers (especially PCGS, since they were the preferred destination for a long time) useful or did you take it with the proverbial grain of salt ?

I didn't know Rocky made his own coins !!! I guess he lived close enough to the Philly Mint.........

Fascinating....off the top of your head, aside from super-low population numbers like for the 1927-D (where we can ID individual coins) or the very low numbers for the 1930's Saints.....would you agree that combining PCGS plus NGC population numbers for most Saints leads to an overcounting of about 20-30% ? Higher ? Lower ? If anybody here has had any talks with PCGS or NGC or dealers who have thoughts on the extent of double-couting, chime in. I would think it is numerically logical that double-counting for 1930-S Saints will probably be much much less percentage-wise than that for 1923-D's or 1924's. But maybe not so ? Very interesting. You basically didn't just improve on earlier estimates, you used modeling to build upon earlier estimates. Both NGC -- and especially PCGS -- see crossovers. Initially, back in 1986-90, ALL of the coins/Saints they got were 1st-tier submittances, raw coins. I don't know when cracking-out began (mid-1990's ?) but it gradually picked up in the 2000's. But by now, the number of raw coins to previously graded coins should be near all-time lows. Most super-rare, expensive coins should have been turned in for grading (I would think). Maybe not for generic Saints because grading is not going to mean much monetarily. Thanks for the feedback, Roger.

I would think an actual video of the actual coin being SEALED in the USPS mailer would suffice. A friend could help you and then you hand it to the USPS guy behind the counter. But you raise some questions I never thought of before. Damn good questions....

Stamp collectors would say stamps are cheap, too. But I get your valid point.

Roger, unlike financial indices -- where I am well aware of all the backtesting biases and games companies play -- I think that these indices were all designed without any intentional or inherent bias. I think they capture pretty much what has happened to coin prices over the decades, though we can quibble with inclusions or exclusions here or there. For instance, if someone came up with a Saints-Gauden Coin index and only included rare and super-rare coins, the declines for that index would be much less than if you included semi-scarce and generic commons. That would be an example of a clearly biased index. I have tried to find out what specific coins are in each sub-index, but can't find the right link. I can find ALL the coins in the PCGS 3000 Index, so I can guess which coins belong to which sub-index that way.... but that isn't very helpful. If anybody knows how to find out what's in each of the sub-indices, let me know. Here's EVERYTHING in the 3000 Index: https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pcgs3000

It all boils down to supply -- AND demand. I do believe there are some very vaulable ASEs -- the 2019-S comes to mind -- where the mintages were low and they sold out in 10 minutes. Those coins sell for hundreds of dollars (OGP was ~ $70), $1,500 or so in PF69 or PF70. The question is not only supply, but demand. The demand for Mickey Mantle's Topps rookie card is through the roof which explains why the price has continued to rise over the decades. No such equivalent demand exists for his contemporaries rookie cards, despite equal or better HOF careers, like Willie Mays or Hank Aaron, and those cards have simply not gone up over the years and decades.

Why do you say that the Mint hated coin collectors ? They sure wanted to sell them lots of high-priced product, that's for sure. I never heard about coin collectors leaving the hobby once the government phased out precious metals backing our coinage -- but maybe it's true to a small extent. Anybody got more stories to tell of the 1960's and 1970's, when the metal compositions were changed ?

Fantastic, what detail you put into it. Thank You !

Roger, in case you missed this. No rush on a response, just curious.

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/silver-and-gold-commemorative Commemoratives went up 60-fold from 1970-1990. That's 22% a year -- double what would be an unsustainable rate of return for 99.99% of individual investments, let alone an entire class. The index sits about 85% below the 1989-90 all-time peak. Looking at the 50-year chart, it's clear that the bubble into 1980 for precious metals did NOT slow down the Commemorative Bubble over the next 10 years. No wonder folks are reluctant to throw in the towel.

No, they just said it based on 12-years being long enough to drive speculation out of the market and with prices down alot since, both signify that MAYBE the price has bottomed. Doesn't mean it's going to rebound or that he is a buyer now. The TA part was me just applying what I've learned from past bubbles that burst. Check out the sub-indices 10-year performance I posted above. If I went back to 1970 for most, then you'd have a decent rate of return because....as you stated...the prices for EVERYTHING (bullion and non-bullion) was so cheap pre-1973 that even if you didn't sell something/everything at bubble peaks in 1980 or 1989, you still could have done OK over the last 50 years.

Well...for the last 10 years, the Gold & Silver Commemorative subindex of the PCGS 3000 Index has been the 2nd-worst performing sub-index, down 40%. Pure silver is down 48% from the bubble-peak in 2011. Here's the complete listing: Last 10 Years for PCGS 3000 and sub-indices: PCGS 3000.......................... -18%Gold Spot.............................. FlatGeneric Gold........................ -28%Mint State Rare Gold Coin.... -23%Proof Gold Coin..................... +4%Mint State Type Coin............ -18%Proof Type Coin.....................-25%Silver Spot............................ -48%Morgan & Peace Dollar......... -20%Silver & Gold Commem.........-40%20th Century Coin Index ...... -20%Key Dates & Rarities ............. -5%

Roger makes some excellent points. You can always submit it and get it graded/slabbed down the line if you feel it's worth it at that time.

That's a coin that I would think is worthy of being graded and more importantly PROTECTED in a slab. Now, how to do it is the question. To join a program for multiple submissions when you might only have 1 or 2 coins you want to submit seems a waste (and expensive). Maybe talk to your LCS (maybe you can piggy-back on their submissions) and/or at a future coin show that is big enough you can have it graded/slabbed on-site like they were doing at FUN 2020. I'm not an expert having never done this, so listen to the vets here. In the meantime, protect that coin by putting it in some form of plastic sleeve or at least a nice velvet pouch (can get them on Amazon for like $10 for 20 or something like that).

Macquel,besides the pluses of having the coin in a slab and graded, think of all the things that can happen when you touch a sentimental coin that you love that may be worth even only $20 or a Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle worth $2,000: You or a friend you are showing it to can touch it with dirty, oily fingers -- eventually, they can impact the coin. You can drop it A person you give it to for closer inspection as you show it off can scratch it with their nails. Market value for your knowledge and/or insurance purposes is not clear without grading It's tougher to display the coin without a slab I have those little plastic frame holder-like things that can hold all but the 5-ounce coin slabs. Makes displaying them easy and nice.

I don't disagree that dealers have some influence on prices, but I don't think they have monopoly power and can dictate prices. If they could, they'd probably be alot higher and that PCGS 3000 Index would not have had 2 mega-bear markets in the last 40 years. Where do you see dealers artificially keeping prices high ?

Or maybe is "cheap" that it might attract future interest. Cheap in absolute terms....or maybe has come down a huge amount from a previous bubble peak. Interesting that a colleague has stated that he thinks that 12-year bear market in U.S. coins might be ending as seen in the PCGS 3000 Index: https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000 We had 14-year bear market after the 1980 bubble, so the entire 40 year move since can be considered one huge basing move, in technical terms.

Dunno, but the OP was: "I just wanted to ask everyone what do you think the most undervalued coin series is(not counting bullion)? Personally, I think the kennedy series is undervalued, and the modern dimes/nickels. Also, add what you think the most overvalued series is: I think it is the presidential dollars (who wants to spend 100+ for a smooth edged coin)." I think the OP and subsequent posts were just asking where a particular series might exist that isn't what we call in the business a "crowded trade." In other words, something that is down in price or not that expensive in absolute terms....not attracting tons of bidders/interest on HA, Ebay, etc.....and maybe you can negotiate prices with your LCS or at a coin show. Since I only really collect Saints, Morgans, bullion coins, and moderns.....I'm not too well-versed in small face value coinage from post-WW II or pre-WW II vintage. I just know that is where the demographic dropoff has been most pronounced based on what I have read on many forums (and some articles).

Yeah, but the only downside is you can't see the coin.

I guess SLQ's, Franklins, Barbers, various pennies and nickles. Just wanted to know if any groups stood out. G-4 ? I didn't even know such a grade existed !! I am not sure I have anything lower than the AU's.

I presume you have a smartphone ? I'm not an expert, but I find it best to: Make sure the lights are behind/in front of the display where the coin sits so there is not glare. LED lighting illuminates best Angle the coin at about a 30 degree pitch to the table towards you/the camera. You don't want to take the picture of the coin flat on the table or directly above Make sure the camera setings are at least 1280x720 You can always resize or crop away stuff. Here's one of mine which is pretty good (no glare, shows the luster and shine):

What's the price range of all or most of these U.S. small face value coins you guys are debating ? I've kept out of it because I have nothing to add. If you have to pay $25 or $50 for a very nice graded/slabbed coin that is a big increase over face value for a penny, nickel, or dime....but in absolute terms, compared to most Morgans or Saints, dirt cheap. From an activity perspective, it tends to stimulate more activity than Morgan or Saint buyers who need larger $$$ funds to buy their coins.

Yeah, I have some currency, and some of my PMG bills have that feature. Forgot about that, good point.