Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 8:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You're saying that ALL or VIRTUALLY ALL small legal coinage in the last 60 years still exists ?  Wasn't some taken out and destroyed over time ?

No.

In the example of the 1964 quarter, I think so, unless it was large scale melted.  Not literally all of it, but a much higher pct than is evident to any of us, no matter who that may be.

I think most coins are (a lot) more common than most collectors seem to think, whether in a specific quality or generally.  The sentiments in this thread are exaggerated, but not unusual.  I encountered it on the South African coin forum, all the time.  I've encountered it here and the PCGS forum occasionally too.

The internet has exposed this as being generally true.  I've also provided numerous examples.  

As another one, one Heritage listing for the 1796-1797 half dollar references Amato's book where he attempted to itemize every known example.  The listing also states more (a few) have been identified since.  This is usually at least a mid-five figure coin, so if even one more previously not generally known shows up, it should be apparent that the potential supply for somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all circulation coins ever struck is noticeably more too.

[zadok]

On 7/25/2023 at 4:41 PM, World Colonial said:

No.

In the example of the 1964 quarter, I think so, unless it was large scale melted.  Not literally all of it, but a much higher pct than is evident to any of us, no matter who that may be.

I think most coins are (a lot) more common than most collectors seem to think, whether in a specific quality or generally.  The sentiments in this thread are exaggerated, but not unusual.  I encountered it on the South African coin forum, all the time.  I've encountered it here and the PCGS forum occasionally too.

The internet has exposed this as being generally true.  I've also provided numerous examples.  

As another one, one Heritage listing for the 1796-1797 half dollar references Amato's book where he attempted to itemize every known example.  The listing also states more (a few) have been identified since.  This is usually at least a mid-five figure coin, so if even one more previously not generally known shows up, it should be apparent that the potential supply for somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all circulation coins ever struck is noticeably more too.

...u r correct, probably 95%of all minted 1964 washington quarters r still out there n mostly in unc condition, ditto for the 1964 kennedy halves...to expand most of the SBA dollars, ike dollars, sac dollars n presidential dollar series r still in unc condition as well...if anyone was so inclined they could easily stockpile read hoard tens of thousands of each....

[cladking]

On 7/26/2023 at 7:30 AM, zadok said:

...u r correct, probably 95%of all minted 1964 washington quarters r still out there n mostly in unc condition, ditto for the 1964 kennedy halves...to expand most of the SBA dollars, ike dollars, sac dollars n presidential dollar series r still in unc condition as well...if anyone was so inclined they could easily stockpile read hoard tens of thousands of each....

No.  The vast majority of '64 pennies and nickels have been worn out and lost. Due to the many large meltings only about 60% of the quarters survive.  

Most Ike dollars are sitting in sock drawers in VF-AU condition unless the FED still has some in storage which they may or may not.  None of these coins that might be in FED storage are likely to be UNC but if any are they are most probably dated 1976 or later.  There is enough demand for BU Ikes to cause an $80 per roll wholesale price.  

While 1964 quarters have been melted in large quantities this does not apply to any of the old silver coins with a numismatic premium.  A very low percentage of '32-S quarters have been melted.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/26/2023 at 9:33 AM, cladking said:

While 1964 quarters have been melted in large quantities this does not apply to any of the old silver coins with a numismatic premium.  A very low percentage of '32-S quarters have been melted.  

32-S quarter is a key date, the mintage is low (by more contemporary standards but not actually) and the price is high enough where the TPG populations are more reflective of the actual supply in higher quality.  Obviously, more than a minimal pct haven't been melted, though more might have been in 1979/1980 than most believe when very low grades weren't worth very much.  I don't recall prices at the time.  Melt was about $9 at the $50 peak price.

[World Colonial]

On 7/26/2023 at 8:30 AM, zadok said:

...u r correct, probably 95%of all minted 1964 washington quarters r still out there n mostly in unc condition, ditto for the 1964 kennedy halves...to expand most of the SBA dollars, ike dollars, sac dollars n presidential dollar series r still in unc condition as well...if anyone was so inclined they could easily stockpile read hoard tens of thousands of each....

I was just using this as an example.  We've discussed this before where I think we are in agreement.

Most coins aren't visible to any individual or "the market" collectively, as most of the time only a low fraction is visible collectively.  It's either in collections, "change jars", or dispersed where no individual is aware of it.  That's why you see what you see at your local auction while others don't.

(Very) low survival rates do not usually = low number of survivors, at least not the way most collectors think of low.  The TPG population data for much older, higher valued, and lower mintage coins make it evident that the actual supply for more recent, lower valued, and higher mintage coins is usually (a lot) higher than what's visibly evident.  

[zadok]

On 7/26/2023 at 9:33 AM, cladking said:

No.  The vast majority of '64 pennies and nickels have been worn out and lost. Due to the many large meltings only about 60% of the quarters survive.  

Most Ike dollars are sitting in sock drawers in VF-AU condition unless the FED still has some in storage which they may or may not.  None of these coins that might be in FED storage are likely to be UNC but if any are they are most probably dated 1976 or later.  There is enough demand for BU Ikes to cause an $80 per roll wholesale price.  

While 1964 quarters have been melted in large quantities this does not apply to any of the old silver coins with a numismatic premium.  A very low percentage of '32-S quarters have been melted.  

...no one was talking bout pennies n nickels...subject was silver quarters from 1964 plus few other specific coins...u r mostly just out of touch with the reality of the situation, u seem to just throw out statistics that support what u believe without any sources to support them...while no one knows by any means to verify just how many silver coins dated 1964 might have been melted there is a preponderance of bank roll quarters n halves for that date alone still in existence n they show up virtually every day...one would need search a long time to find either in vf-xf grades, the coins simply did not circulate neither did the ike dollars u mention...there r so many unc rolls of 1964 quarters available that i have quit purchasing them unless they r below melt, i presently have several hundred rolls now n could double or triple that amount if i wanted to do so but can buy silver in other forms cheaper...'32-s quarters have nothing to do with the discussion on '64 quarters....

[VKurtB]

On 7/26/2023 at 11:17 AM, zadok said:

...no one was talking bout pennies n nickels...subject was silver quarters from 1964 plus few other specific coins...u r mostly just out of touch with the reality of the situation, u seem to just throw out statistics that support what u believe without any sources to support them...while no one knows by any means to verify just how many silver coins dated 1964 might have been melted there is a preponderance of bank roll quarters n halves for that date alone still in existence n they show up virtually every day...one would need search a long time to find either in vf-xf grades, the coins simply did not circulate neither did the ike dollars u mention...there r so many unc rolls of 1964 quarters available that i have quit purchasing them unless they r below melt, i presently have several hundred rolls now n could double or triple that amount if i wanted to do so but can buy silver in other forms cheaper...'32-s quarters have nothing to do with the discussion on '64 quarters....

The 1964 Jefferson nickel is STILL found in circulation in almost unlimited numbers. I examine every coin I get in change, and I get 1964’s almost weekly. Cents too. 

[cladking]

On 7/26/2023 at 6:29 PM, VKurtB said:

The 1964 Jefferson nickel is STILL found in circulation in almost unlimited numbers. I examine every coin I get in change, and I get 1964’s almost weekly. Cents too. 

I said the vast majority are worn out and lost; not all of them.  90%+ of the cents and 70% of the nickels wore out in circulation and were then lost.  The survivors are in horrible condition though it's not too unusual to find the '64 5c in grades up to VF.  Both of these exist in large quantities in chBU and Gems are not unusual.  The '65 nickel also wore out and was lost in circulation but there are very few in chBU and Gems are very uncommon.  Except for the date it is identical to the '64 Philly  otherwise.  "FS" was added to the obverse in '66 (which is even tougher than the '65). 

Edited July 27, 2023 by cladking

[cladking]

On 7/26/2023 at 11:17 AM, zadok said:

...while no one knows by any means to verify just how many silver coins dated 1964 might have been melted

This is actually very easy to estimate if you read the reports for the last 75 years.  

[cladking]

On 7/26/2023 at 11:17 AM, zadok said:

'32-s quarters have nothing to do with the discussion on '64 quarters....

The reports won't do you any good if you assume equal percentages of 1864 and 1964 quarters were melted.  

[cladking]

On 7/26/2023 at 9:36 AM, World Colonial said:

32-S quarter is a key date, the mintage is low (by more contemporary standards but not actually) and the price is high enough where the TPG populations are more reflective of the actual supply in higher quality.  Obviously, more than a minimal pct haven't been melted, though more might have been in 1979/1980 than most believe when very low grades weren't worth very much.  I don't recall prices at the time.  Melt was about $9 at the $50 peak price.

I was able to go through a lot of the silver being shipped off to be melted in 1979.  There were lots of things that broke my heart to not be able to save.  I saw rolls of things like 1955 Gem quarters but I never saw any better date stuff unless it was cull.  A lot more '32-S quarters would have been melted in the treasury melts of '68-'70 but even here numbers are quite nominal because there were very few in circulation. The coins circulating when the FED removed circulating silver were picked over and heavy in things like XF to AU 1964 quarters.  Older dates and higher grades had been picked out by coin collectors since 1942.  Many of these coins like '49-S half dollars in less than XF were then melted in 1979.  

[samclemen3991]

I have always wondered just how many coins were melted during that Hunt Brother period.  On the one hand I guess I should be happy I converted a great deal of low grade silver coins into more than $3,500 dollars.  On the other hand I was depressed and  angry with my self that I contributed to the destruction of numerous coins I was originally proud to own.

.

[cladking]

On 7/27/2023 at 11:36 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I have always wondered just how many coins were melted during that Hunt Brother period.  On the one hand I guess I should be happy I converted a great deal of low grade silver coins into more than $3,500 dollars.  On the other hand I was depressed and  angry with my self that I contributed to the destruction of numerous coins I was originally proud to own.

.

I believe they'd have melted a huge amount if not for the fact it was so brief.  It started building in late-summer and by December the refineries were going full out with huge backlogs.  I believe it slowed dramatically shortly after the price peaked.  

 

Of course coins are being melted on a continuing basis.  In the old days most silver coin was melted only when it wore out.   Now days a great number of base metal coins are melted when they become obsolete.  

[cladking]

On 7/27/2023 at 11:36 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I have always wondered just how many coins were melted during that Hunt Brother period.  On the one hand I guess I should be happy I converted a great deal of low grade silver coins into more than $3,500 dollars.  On the other hand I was depressed and  angry with my self that I contributed to the destruction of numerous coins I was originally proud to own.

I mostly just dumped junk and traded it for some of the good stuff going to the melters.  Why hold a VG and low grade mercury dimes when I could trade them for AU's and Uncs for a few dollars in postage or transaction costs?  Even if they end up having to be being sold for scrap they provide some protection against low prices.  

[zadok]

On 7/26/2023 at 8:28 PM, cladking said:

This is actually very easy to estimate if you read the reports for the last 75 years.  

...garbage....

[zadok]

On 7/26/2023 at 8:30 PM, cladking said:

The reports won't do you any good if you assume equal percentages of 1864 and 1964 quarters were melted.  

...there r no reports that give any accurate info on which dates or denominations were melted...possibly there is an estimate on number of troy ounces....

[VKurtB]

On 7/27/2023 at 5:04 PM, zadok said:

...there r no reports that give any accurate info on which dates or denominations were melted...possibly there is an estimate on number of troy ounces....

More is recovered from old silver halide radiographs than any coins. As the operator of a photo lab, I had a long term relationship with a silver recovery firm near Philadelphia International Airport. He said silver coins were seldom ever melted, but rather hoarded in huge bags. Very very few were ever melted. The second firm I used was pyromet999.com of Aston, PA, after my earlier one in Easton went belly up. That was Eastern Smelting and Refining. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/28/2023 at 12:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Any good stories ?  Inquiring minds want to know !! 

PCGS ran a piece about the 2014-W Gold Kennedy Half Dollar two weeks ago. Here's what they had to say...

Almost 75,000 were minted, the maximum number authorized.  The Mint's issue price was $1,240. Within days the price more than doubled to $2,500. and some shot up past $5,000.

The first specimen sold at the coin show in Chicago, graded PR-70 DCAM, was later sold in a "private treatise transaction" for $100,000.

Today, the .999 fine gold coins weighing 3/4 oz. troy have since settled to melt which was close to $2,000.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Henri Charriere
Add'l info

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/1/2023 at 7:44 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Today, the .999 fine gold coins weighing 3/4 oz. troy have since settled to melt which was close to $2,000.

They should be selling for $1,500 or so, right ?

[World Colonial]

On 8/2/2023 at 2:04 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

They should be selling for $1,500 or so, right ?

That's what I was thinking.

It's the "correct" price.  It's a really common coin which due to the metal, is far above the demand for it as a collectible.  

That's what I think applies to practically all modern US NCLT.  Too much "product" with uninteresting themes to more than a minimal proportion of the collector base.  I don't even recall hardly any of the mintages but have consistently read of new "key" dates, as the mintage decreases over time with new releases. 

Most of these are destined to be lost in obscurity decades from now, if it hasn't happened already.  It's my assumption that an outsized and in some instances, majority of the demand comes from those who are buying it for financial speculation due to the mintage (e.g., First Spouse series).

[GoldFinger1969]

Small Denomination Gold Supply Hits:  Just to show what an increase in supply from a hoard can do, I bring you these prices on coins I don't track at all but found while reading up on the Fairmont Collection from Doug Winter's 5 Random Observation post from November 2023:

"...Let’s look at the 1911-D $5 in PCGS MS63.  In the 11/2023 Stack’s Bowers sale, a PCGS MS63 example brought $22,800. In March 2019, Stack’s Bowers sold a PCGS/CAC MS63 for $36,000.

And what about the popular 1909-O $5? In the recent SB sale, a nice PCGS MS62 brought $28,800. In 11/2022, the same date in the same grade brought $31,200, while another PCGS MS62 brought $50,400 in the 4/2022 SB auction. This date is clearly trending downwards, and I believe that as more come onto the market, it will drop further in price."

Caveat Emptor for ANY "rare" or supply-constrained coins you may buy as you never know where or when supply may come from.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/1/2023 at 7:44 PM, Henri Charriere said:

PCGS ran a piece about the 2014-W Gold Kennedy Half Dollar two weeks ago. Here's what they had to say...Almost 75,000 were minted, the maximum number authorized.  The Mint's issue price was $1,240. Within days the price more than doubled to $2,500. and some shot up past $5,000.  The first specimen sold at the coin show in Chicago, graded PR-70 DCAM, was later sold in a "private treatise transaction" for $100,000.  Today, the .999 fine gold coins weighing 3/4 oz. troy have since settled to melt which was close to $2,000.

This was unreal.  Everybody thought it would be a bubble but forgot the mintage was too high.  

I could be wrong, but it appears that when mintages get above 50,000....demand is satiated.

Edited March 15 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 3/10/2024 at 10:03 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

This was unreal.  Everybody thought it would be a bubble but forgot the mintage was too high.  

I could be wrong, but it appears that when mintages get above 50,000....demand is satiated.

Correction: the original issue price was $1210, not $1240. I did Security at Chicago, monitoring the queue.  I don’t remember who got the first gold Kennedy graded, but I do know whose clad high relief set was the first one submitted - MINE!

Edited March 11 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 2/4/2024 at 11:08 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Small Denomination Gold Supply Hits:  Just to show what an increase in supply from a hoard can do, I bring you these prices on coins I don't track at all but found while reading up on the Fairmont Collection from Doug Winter's 5 Random Observation post from November 2023:

"...Let’s look at the 1911-D $5 in PCGS MS63.  In the 11/2023 Stack’s Bowers sale, a PCGS MS63 example brought $22,800. In March 2019, Stack’s Bowers sold a PCGS/CAC MS63 for $36,000.

And what about the popular 1909-O $5? In the recent SB sale, a nice PCGS MS62 brought $28,800. In 11/2022, the same date in the same grade brought $31,200, while another PCGS MS62 brought $50,400 in the 4/2022 SB auction. This date is clearly trending downwards, and I believe that as more come onto the market, it will drop further in price."

Caveat Emptor for ANY "rare" or supply-constrained coins you may buy as you never know where or when supply may come from.

The exact opposite of my theory - the “streetcar theory” - don’t worry about missing one; there’ll be another coming along in a few minutes.

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/11/2024 at 1:58 PM, VKurtB said:

Correction: the original issue price was $1210, not $1240. I did Security at Chicago, monitoring the queue.  I don’t remember who got the first gold Kennedy graded, but I do know whose clad high relief set was the first one submitted - MINE!

Clad HR set? Alloyed or Clad, and if the latter, with what?  Was this the 2014 3/4 oz gold coin. What grade?  I spent the past half hour and am unable to find specific specs. More to the point, what was its trajectory to relegate it to Fallen Star status? The 2014-W Proof is selling for $1800.

[VKurtB]

On 3/11/2024 at 4:17 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Clad HR set? Alloyed or Clad, and if the latter, with what?  Was this the 2014 3/4 oz gold coin. What grade?  I spent the past half hour and am unable to find specific specs. More to the point, what was its trajectory to relegate it to Fallen Star status? The 2014-W Proof is selling for $1800.

At the same show (Rosemont, 2014) where the gold Kennedy half dollar was introduced, the also introduced the clad 2014P and 2014D high relief Kennedy halves. I can scarcely believe I need to say this, but 75/25 CuNi clad upon pure Cu - the “normal” clad formulation. But it was high relief, which became normal again in 2015. There were “idjits” chasing to have the first gold submitted. Mine were the first two clads submitted.

Edited March 11 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:31 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I have some 30-year old articles talking about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90.  I thought I would post some of the declines of coins noted at that time and also give an updated price from recent sales in the last year or back a few years to see how they have done over the last 25-30 years (I used the Heritage Archive to get a feel for recent prices).

If any of you have knowledge on the coins I cited, please post.   Some of the coins I am completely unfamiliar with as to their pricing history and stories behind interest in them over the decades.  I also realize that it's tough to get a 100% apples-to-apples comparision because you never know if the price quotes back then were the high water-mark and/or if today's prices include special features.  For the most part, I tried to look at multiple recent sales prices without any special desiognations (CAC, VAM, DMPL, etc.) to be accurate to the original listing decades ago.

Article comments italicized...my comments and recent prices in blue.   Comments VERY welcome. 

 

No-Motto 1858 Liberty Seated Quarter….On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet listed this coin at $14,900 in MS-65 as certified by either PCGS or NGC.  The Insider’s Guide to U.S. Coin Values lists the same coin’s value in 1993 at less than half that amount–just $7,000. 

Looks like MS-66’s last few years (2021-23) sell for ~ $4,500 but MS-65’s were $2,000 or so 5-10 years ago (mid-2010’s).  65’s were $2,500 or so 2005-07. 

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet assigned a value of $555 to an 1880-S Morgan silver dollar certified as Mint State-65 by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America (NGC). Today, that same coin is valued at only about $75. 

Looks like a generic Morgan SD common has come back to about $175-$200 as of early-2023.

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet value for a no-motto Liberty Seated half dollar graded MS-66 by the professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) was a whopping $39,000. Today, that coin is listed for only about one-third that amount. 

No date given for this coin (maybe they implied common year ?), but No Mottos seem to be about $5,500 which would be another 60-70% decline from the 1993 level.  $10,000 if you have special features or CAC apparently.  Can't believe how some of these U.S. Small Denomination coins got driven up in the 1980's !! 

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet assigned a value of $4,060 to a Saint-Gaudens double eagle graded MS-65 by NGC.  My book, The Insider’s Guide to U.S. Coin Values, lists it at only $1,200.

Saints I know pretty well, these have come back to $2,500 since gold is up 5-fold since then.  Big difference is that the premium back then to gold was about 700-800% which is insane.  Today, it's maybe 20-30% for an MS-65.

The price declines of common-date Morgan dollars have been every bit as dramatic for MS-66 and MS-67 specimens as they have for MS-65 pieces. In MS-66, the price has plunged from $1,400 to $200, and in MS-67 the drop has been from $3,950 to $680. 

For the 1880-S….66’s are $350 give-or-take in early-2023 and 67’s are about $900.  Both could be another 20% higher.

I found this very interesting because by going to the MS-67 level, you really are going for conditional scarcity.  The article was dated 1993, BTW so a 4-year decline was cited.

Just wanted to see if anybody had any updated prices for the coins mentioned here in the grades listed.  Ballpark figures OK if not actual recent auction results.

I think it is safe to say that we have NEVER gotten back to those levels from 35 years ago.  It really was Nutsoville. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/26/2023 at 10:46 AM, World Colonial said:

The TPG population data for much older, higher valued, and lower mintage coins make it evident that the actual supply for more recent, lower valued, and higher mintage coins is usually (a lot) higher than what's visibly evident.  

Where do you think this supply is located ?  Is it stored in closets like my younger cousins 1980's and 1990's baseball cards ?

Was this a case of they simply struck too many of these things and there's an endless supply like those mint and proof sets that we all got in the 1960's and 1970's ?

If the holders of these coins are NOT numismatists...if they don't follow trends....then couldn't this supply take DECADES to come out as individuals (accidentally) learn it is/might be valuable ?  Or their estates liquidate ?  Or their heirs do ? 

[cladking]

On 3/28/2024 at 9:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Where do you think this supply is located ?  Is it stored in closets like my younger cousins 1980's and 1990's baseball cards ?

Was this a case of they simply struck too many of these things and there's an endless supply like those mint and proof sets that we all got in the 1960's and 1970's ?

If the holders of these coins are NOT numismatists...if they don't follow trends....then couldn't this supply take DECADES to come out as individuals (accidentally) learn it is/might be valuable ?  Or their estates liquidate ?  Or their heirs do ? 

Most of the original purchasers of mint sets were in their 20's to 60's.  This would make the youngest of them pushing into their '80's today.  These weren't hobby outsiders they were regular collectors and have long since sold their sets and they were destroyed except a few that did sell to hobby outsiders.  

It's hard to impress on people how few of these sets I believe exist at all among the buyers over the decades.  They just  didn't buy very many.  Sure even Bob Vila was selling mint sets for years, they are bought by jobbers to sell at estate sales, and they are sold on HSN,  but none of these sold by the millions or even the thousands.  They were sold a few here and a few there.  Dealers used to tell me that nearly every single mint set that came in was shipped to wholesalers who cut them up.  This was the old days mind you. Since about the mid-'90's most of these were too cheap to ship so they were cut up by the dealer and put in the cash register.  They said they'd sell a couple every year around Christmastime for gifts.   

The mint sets are virtually gone and the proof sets are decimated.  There is as much as a 75% attrition on mint sets and 50% on proof sets.  

[cladking]

There is ample evidence they were insiders.  Their names were on the packs of five and they were still customers of the local coin shops.  This is where they or their heirs took the coins to sell.   This is visible in the fact that usually the name of the buyers was obliterated before being sold.