Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

I thought a thread on once hot coins that have seen cooling interest (and cooling prices) would be of interest. 

My interest in them was piqued when I saw an infomercial this past weekend and I saw the 3/4 ounce Kennedy Gold Coin that was offered at the ANA back in 2014.  I remember that dealers were paying the homeless to wait on line for them and stuff like that. 

Not sure if the ultimate price high reflected that, but..... I will start off this thread with asking how the price is NOW compared to right after the 2014 ANA Convention ?

Regular coin in OGP and maybe a PF70/69 coin ?

Edited June 26, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

I’ll wait until gold bullion backs down some. Still too much fluff in gold’s current price. I worked Security for the ANA at that show, and on that line. I’m still not over the trauma. If I were ever to buy one, it would HAVE TO BE in OGP. I wouldn’t accept one slabbed, even in PF70. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

This is a difficult topic to negotiate.  My gut instinct is the only way a collector would know the answer to your question is if he had acquired one, but, in so doing, he would be acknowledging he made a mistake.  Who would want to do that?

Purchasers of that 1995-W Proof (no further ID necessary) are not exactly going to crow about what has happened in the years since its issuance. The Centennial dollars came out with much fanfare, but if a collector picked one up at price of issue, what has he lost? Same goes for that 3/4 z Kennedy. (Come to think of it, when's the last time a collector conceded he bought a coin at an inflated price that subsequently tanked.)

The top six threads on the Forum feature desirable coins, many in exceptional condition. Now, ask their owners what they're worth, and you'll get ready answers.  😉 

 

[VKurtB]

The most overhyped, oversold, overbought piece in the modern history of the U.S. Mint. ANYBODY could see that this monster was a big time loser. Well, anyone other than the folks who bought them for the crooks that were selling them. Coin dealers know how to manipulate the psyche of the collector mindset.

An entire Ph.D thesis could have been written about that one coin convention in August of 2014.

Edited June 26, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

If you got one at the Mint's official price, didn't you get a good deal ?  It was paying up in the secondary market that was the problem as I recall.

I see OGPs on Ebay for about $1,800 which is about a 25% premium to spot gold.  Certified coins are ASKING $2,400 or thereabouts in 70/69/DCAM condition.

Certainly not anywhere near the markup we've seen on other coins like the 1995-W ASE or the WW II silver and gold coins or the 2019 SanFran ASE.

Edited June 26, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 6/26/2023 at 11:15 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you got one at the Mint's official price, didn't you get a good deal ?  It was paying up in the secondary market that was the problem as I recall.

I see OGPs on Ebay for about $1,800 which is about a 25% premium to spot gold.  Certified coins are ASKING $2,400 or thereabouts in 70/69/DCAM condition.

Certainly not anywhere near the markup we've seen on other coins like the 1995-W ASE or the WW II silver and gold coins or the 2019 SanFran ASE.

Any good deal is only because of an increase in the spot price or because the market treats it as a bullion coin, which is an accurate description of the coin.

I'd rank it one of the worst collectible values of any coin as a collectible.  It's really common especially for its price point.  Yes, the mintage is "low" (no, 60,000+ is not a low number), but 99% exist "as struck" making it very common for the quality.

There are nowhere near enough actual collectors who want it as a collectible anywhere near its price, either now or since 2014.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/26/2023 at 7:56 PM, World Colonial said:

Any good deal is only because of an increase in the spot price or because the market treats it as a bullion coin, which is an accurate description of the coin.  I'd rank it one of the worst collectible values of any coin as a collectible.  It's really common especially for its price point.  Yes, the mintage is "low" (no, 60,000+ is not a low number), but 99% exist "as struck" making it very common for the quality. There are nowhere near enough actual collectors who want it as a collectible anywhere near its price, either now or since 2014.

Do you recall if in the weeks/months after the release the price was higher and/or the percentage was higher ?  Gold was $1,250 give or take for most  of 2014 I believe.  So on a percentage basis it definitely had some bubble action.

[jtryka]

Other examples I can recall are the 2001 Buffalo dollars, they sold out and were going for something like $300 a piece, but now they are back to earth.  Same is true for the 1996 National Community Service silver dollars, the proofs never got too high, but I recall the uncs were up to about $300 at one point and now they are about $80.  The 1998 RFK set with the matte proof silver Kennedy once went for more than $300, but I bought one last year at a coin show for $50!  So, buy what you like and don't look back, but always remember if you miss the ride up in a bubble, there will likely be a better buying opportunity in the future!

[World Colonial]

On 6/27/2023 at 1:34 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Do you recall if in the weeks/months after the release the price was higher and/or the percentage was higher ?  Gold was $1,250 give or take for most  of 2014 I believe.  So on a percentage basis it definitely had some bubble action.

I don't remember specific prices but yes, a bubble.

[World Colonial]

On 6/27/2023 at 7:42 AM, jtryka said:

Other examples I can recall are the 2001 Buffalo dollars, they sold out and were going for something like $300 a piece, but now they are back to earth.  Same is true for the 1996 National Community Service silver dollars, the proofs never got too high, but I recall the uncs were up to about $300 at one point and now they are about $80.  The 1998 RFK set with the matte proof silver Kennedy once went for more than $300, but I bought one last year at a coin show for $50!  So, buy what you like and don't look back, but always remember if you miss the ride up in a bubble, there will likely be a better buying opportunity in the future!

Buffalo dollar has a mintage of 500,000 to my recollection, though that may be for both proof and UNC.  I presume it's still "popular", but still don't think there are enough collectors for the supply.

I don't even remember the National Community Service coin but it's an uninteresting theme to most collectors.  It's a coin destined to be lost in obscurity in the future and whatever the mintage, plenty of others since near it or lower.

I remember when the 1998 SP half went for a few hundred.  I recall it's also collected as part of the series and the prior price was due to an incorrect perception of the "low" mintage.

Sure, the mintage is much lower than all other Kennedy halves.  It's also still more common than over 99% of all coins ever struck in equivalent quality.  It's also from a series overwhelmingly composed of low budget collectors and where it isn't, still mostly bought as a "side collection".  It's not an "investor" coin and lacks the appeal for the supply and collectible merits to support the prior price.

[EarlyUS.com]

I just wanted to say that this thread brought back a lot of memories!  I was dealing in coins full-time in 2014 and was at the ANA when all these shenanigans were going on.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/27/2023 at 9:14 AM, EarlyUS.com said:

I just wanted to say that this thread brought back a lot of memories!  I was dealing in coins full-time in 2014 and was at the ANA when all these shenanigans were going on.

Any good stories ?  Inquiring minds want to know !! 

[GoldFinger1969]

It's totally different today than 30 years ago...orders are placed online....not sure if you ordered by phone back then, so maybe you dealt with busy signals...today, it's the website crashing or your "1" order showing up in your shopping cart, then disappearing...refreshing.....nothing....refresh again....this time it worked ! 

You get prices instantaneously today, 30 years ago I guess you had to goto your LCS or wait for a price guide to hit your mailbox.

Edited June 28, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 6/27/2023 at 11:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's totally different today than 30 years ago...orders are placed online....not sure if you ordered by phone back then, so maybe you dealt with busy signals...today, it's the website crashing or your "1" order showing up in your shopping cart, then disappearing...refreshing.....nothing....refresh again....this time it worked ! 

You get prices instantaneously today, 30 years ago I guess you had to goto your LCS or wait for a price guide to hit your mailbox.

I loved the individual mailings from the Mint. I kept some of them.

[GoldFinger1969]

1795 Capped Bust Gold Eagle 9 Leaves PCGS MS-63+ CAC (Ex. Pogue & Simpson Collections):  

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1350274/1795-Capped-Bust-Gold-Eagle-9-Leaves-PCGS-MS-63-CAC-Ex-Pogue-Simpson-Collections

I happened to see that this coin just sold on GC for $2.4 MM (ex bp; $2.7 MM with bp) but it had sold in January 2022 to Bob Simpson for $3.36 MM.  This is a super-rare, high-end coin but I think the falling price since Simpson bought it shows you that if you don't have another well-heeled buyer at the ready, the price can fall and this one did by about 20% in a little over a year.

Edited July 8, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[MorganMan]

1950 D Jefferson nickel

1999 Silver proof sets

[J P M]

On 7/8/2023 at 1:06 AM, MorganMan said:

1950 D Jefferson nickel

The lowest mintage regular strike 2.6 mil . But because of this amount many were saved. It is considered a hoarded coin so it's value is low.

Edited July 8, 2023 by J P M

[7.jaguars]

I agree with the above re: the 2014 Gold Kennedy Half. However, loved the president with all his flaws and treasure the coin regardless of the mintage. Mine developed one of the dreaded red spots which was easily restored with simple non-abrasive technique and the coin is simply beautiful.

[numisport]

Too many coins like these were available with no real attrition. Just try to find nice gem 1936 proof coins with mintages around 3900. These are always expensive and always in demand. If you can find a '36 Brilliant proof cent without corrosion spots you have found a rare coin !

[robec1347]

On 7/8/2023 at 5:27 AM, J P M said:

The lowest mintage regular strike 2.6 mil . But because of this amount many were saved. It is considered a hoarded coin so it's value is low.

This was one coin that was very hard to find in rolls and circulation, at least it was for me during my roll searching days in the early 60’s. We didn’t have any coin shops locally and social media was nonexistent. 

[Sandon]

  I recall 1973-S silver clad Proof (a.k.a. "brown box") Eisenhower dollars (mint issue price $10) being offered later in the 1970s for as much as $200! The mintage of slightly over one million pieces was touted as "low"!  Today they can be had for $25 or so in the original packaging.

   Similarly, I recall 1975 proof sets (mint issue price $7) being offered a few years after their issue for $25 or more. The mint had sold out after selling well over 2.8 million sets, and there was excess demand for a while even though the 1976 dated quarters and half dollars in these sets were identical to those in the 1976 proof sets. (The "Ike" dollars in the 1975 sets are "Variety 1", while those in the 1976 sets are "Variety 2".) Nowadays 1975 proof sets retail for around $12. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Sandon
add mint issue price

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/8/2023 at 4:21 PM, Sandon said:

  I recall 1973-S silver clad Proof (a.k.a. "brown box") Eisenhower dollars (mint issue price $10) being offered later in the 1970s for as much as $200! The mintage of slightly over one million pieces was touted as "low"!  Today they can be had for $25 or so in the original packaging.

I'm not surprised.  Silver went up 10-20x and you had a bubble in coins to drive the price up.  People thought silver was going to go up even more, ditto gold.

[Just Bob]

When PCGS and NGC first started grading, common date Morgans like the 1881-s in MS65 sold for upwards of $800. Of course, an MS65 back then was today's MS66 or MS67. Still, it was a lot to pay for a coin that turned out to be common in higher grades. The price has dipped below $100 several times over the years since then. MS65s are selling now on Ebay for $170 - $200.

I also remember when the Statue of Liberty $5 gold coins came out. The 500,000 mintage sold out before the coins were issued. Original pre-sale price was $160 for the MS and $165 for the Proof. The MS version was the lower mintage of the two at under 100,000 pieces. At the first major coin show after the release, they were selling for over $700. That price came back down to earth just a few years later. Even now, you can buy a slabbed MS70 for around $600.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/9/2023 at 2:57 AM, Just Bob said:

When PCGS and NGC first started grading, common date Morgans like the 1881-s in MS65 sold for upwards of $800. Of course, an MS65 back then was today's MS66 or MS67. Still, it was a lot to pay for a coin that turned out to be common in higher grades. The price has dipped below $100 several times over the years since then. MS65s are selling now on Ebay for $170 - $200.

Yes, and only a few years after both PCGS and NGC started up operations you had the infamous Coin Bubble of 1989.

Randy Campbell noted these price drops for Peace Dollars in an article from August 1994:

	June 2, 1989	August 12, 1994
	MS-64 bid	MS-64 bid
1922-D	$ 425	$ 40
1927	1220	185
1927-D	3115	390
1934	650	130

Edited July 9, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Burton Blumert (I guess he was big in silver coins decades ago) wrote this in an article I came across from October 1990:

“The MS-65 cheerleaders contend that they are providing investor liquidity through repurchase of these coins. No matter how well intentioned, this small group of dealers could never withstand a selling wave, whether the coins are encased in plastic bricks or not. And it has always been so. Witness the bursting of the South Seas Bubble, the collapse of the tulip craze and the disastrous Ponzi-style real estate and stock pyramids. In our own industry, we need only look at the fall of the 1960 small-date cents and 1950-D Jefferson nickels"

Blumert believed that the TPGs had created "false security" among dealers, collectors, investors, and the public....and that the confluence of the TPGs, Wall Street money coming in, liquidity, and mass retail participation.....would sustain prices.  Also, even though the population reports were now replacing guesses and outdated Red Books, what were being sold as "low pop" coins in fact had many more coins in their grade.  This was true for the coins costing $400 (see above) but also super-rare Morgan's or gold coins that were selling for 5-figures and were worth maybe a third or a fourth of that price.

Edited July 9, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/9/2023 at 2:57 AM, Just Bob said:

I also remember when the Statue of Liberty $5 gold coins came out. The 500,000 mintage sold out before the coins were issued. Original pre-sale price was $160 for the MS and $165 for the Proof. The MS version was the lower mintage of the two at under 100,000 pieces. At the first major coin show after the release, they were selling for over $700. That price came back down to earth just a few years later. Even now, you can buy a slabbed MS70 for around $600.

I take it the MS-70's sold for 4-figures if a regular ungraded OGP sold for $700 ?  This was in the 1980's or 1990's ?

[Just Bob]

On 7/9/2023 at 10:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I take it the MS-70's sold for 4-figures if a regular ungraded OGP sold for $700 ?  This was in the 1980's or 1990's ?

This was in 1986, when they were first issued. No one was grading them then.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/9/2023 at 1:25 PM, Just Bob said:

This was in 1986, when they were first issued. No one was grading them then.

Got it, they were issued for the Centennial of Lady Liberty in NY.    PCGS would start up later that year, NGC the next year.  But I don't believe they took modern coins until a few years later.

Edited July 9, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 7/8/2023 at 8:27 AM, J P M said:

The lowest mintage regular strike 2.6 mil . But because of this amount many were saved. It is considered a hoarded coin so it's value is low.

 

Like other similar period key and semi-key dates, I don't consider the price low for the supply.  Last I checked, PCGS had graded over 500 FS MS-66 and there is a huge supply in lower grades, more graded by NGC, and probably far more outside of a holder than in one for all grades except MS-67.

This was many years ago, but it was a $100+ coin at the time.  Like practically every post 1933 non-commemorative US coin, it's one I expect to sell for less than the grading fee or a nominal premium to silver spot decades from now.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/9/2023 at 6:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Like other similar period key and semi-key dates, I don't consider the price low for the supply.  Last I checked, PCGS had graded over 500 FS MS-66 and there is a huge supply in lower grades, more graded by NGC, and probably far more outside of a holder than in one for all grades except MS-67.This was many years ago, but it was a $100+ coin at the time.  Like practically every post 1933 non-commemorative US coin, it's one I expect to sell for less than the grading fee or a nominal premium to silver spot decades from now.

You saying the price has held up over the last few decades (I don't track Nickels) ?  This is a hard coin....even improperly cared for, there might be lots more that grade Superb Gem or higher, no ?