Top Pop and understanding Price guide vs auction sales and what if a coin doesn't have a price guide value but is rare. 0

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

Example is Price guide listed as $17,500 and is Top Pop but has auctioned for $23,000 on high end and also $6000 on low end. Does that just mean demand for this particular coin is not there and people aren't willing to pay?

If one were to acquire a coin like this would you just have to source a private buyer that would be willing to pay for something like this?

Also what if you find a rare coin on the rarity value but there is no listed price guide value and only 12 or less exist graded by NGC.

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 8:15 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

Also what if you find a rare coin on the rarity value but there is no listed price guide value and only 12 or less exist graded by NGC.

It has a designation of PL is that why there is no price guide value? Couldn't find any auction sales.

[Greenstang]

It would help if you describe what coin you are referring to and would be even better if. 
you were to supply pictures of the coin and holder.

[J P M]

Greenstang is correct, there is no way to tell. Each coin stands on it's own merits there is no one shoe fits all. What I may consider a nice coin he could dislike its looks. What I think is worth $50 is only worth $20 to someone trying to resell it.

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 8:41 AM, Greenstang said:

It would help if you describe what coin you are referring to and would be even better if. 
you were to supply pictures of the coin and holder.

[Greenstang]

It does have a population of 23 and $17,500 is the NGC listed price.

Trouble with auctions are if you get two people with deep pockets wanting the same coin, then this will drive the price up
as they bid against each other.
By the same token if only one person is interested, he can put up a lowball price and if no challenges him, then he gets a bargain.  It sometimes is a crapshoot with auctions. It is the same with eBay, depends on how many are interested.  
The only thing you can do is put up a high starting price but then this will drive away some bidders.

To answer the second part of your question, here again we will need more information.

[J P M]

Yes I have seen this coin bid, It is currently biding in the $1500 range. As you may or may not know I am building a Nickel Set and I would never bid on this kind of a coin, to rich for me . Like Greenstang has pointed out . To a lot of bidders money is no object.

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 10:04 AM, J P M said:

Yes I have seen this coin bid, It is currently biding in the $1500 range. As you may or may not know I am building a Nickel Set and I would never bid on this kind of a coin, to rich for me . Like Greenstang has pointed out . To a lot of bidders money is no object.

yeah some whales seem to have bottomless pockets.

Just didn't know if it would be a worthy investment..I was going to pass I'm sure eventually it will be well above my price range but I was interested in it. If it was profitable or a worthy investment.

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 10:04 AM, J P M said:

 As you may or may not know I am building a Nickel Set and I would never bid on this kind of a coin, to rich for me.

Lol yes I did remember you are i hope it is going well for you! I was hesitant in posting.

Edited August 17, 2023 by NeverEnoughCoins09
misspelling

[Coinbuf]

@NeverEnoughCoins09 the photo you posted of the 39 rev of 40 in MS68 FS is a coin that might appeal to many collectors of nickels, but due to the price tag it will only get serious bids from very wealthy collectors or a handful of very motivated registry buyers.   Wide swings in price can come from several factors, usually buyers of coins like this will view the coin in person or have a representative do that for them.  If that in hand view doesn't satisfy the bidders that the quality is all there you might see weak bidding and a low end result.   I the coin is truly spectacular then the bidding might be more aggressive with a bidding war between two top registry participants.   Another factor is if two of the same coin come up for auction in close proximity to each other, the winner of the first to auction has satisfied his need and thus there may not be the spirited bidding war for the second coin that hits the auction block.   Also, this is the area where the brand of plastic really matters, like it or not in this top pop area PCGS coins often bring more at auction than NGC graded coins do, and while not a factor for Jefferson nickels, the presence or lack of add-ons like an eagle eye sticker or CAC bean can have a significant impact on auction results.

I would also suggest that you widen your view of things outside of price guides, Great Collections has auctioned several MS68 examples of this coin (there are two current auctions as I type this), and using their auction archives can assist you in finding additional data as GC auctions are not included in either of the NGC or PCGS price guides or auction data.   As you can see all of these sold for well less than the NGC price guide.

I am still confused as you mentioned a PL coin which this nickel is not.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Coinbuf

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 10:20 AM, Coinbuf said:

@NeverEnoughCoins09 

I am still confused as you mentioned a PL coin which this nickel is not.

I don't have an image. I was researching a few coins a few weeks ago with PL designation but no price guide value was listed so I was wondering if someone could clarify why sometimes price guide values aren't available for something.

[J P M]

A price guide is a reference, most of the time High or over priced for the dealer to use. Although some dealers  go by auction prices and e-bay if the price is higher .If a coin is not very old it may not have a price guide yet. Remember that the price guide may not be up to date also. 

[RWB]

On 8/17/2023 at 11:08 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

Just didn't know if it would be a worthy investment.

Numismatics is not an "investment;" it is a hobby. If you go into it with the purpose of increasing your net worth, it is a waste of time and assets.

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 10:39 AM, RWB said:

Numismatics is not an "investment;" it is a hobby. If you go into it with the purpose of increasing your net worth, it is a waste of time and assets.

That's a bummer. I do enjoy just collecting in general coins, minerals, artifacts etc.

I will try to focus more on what I want versus what is vaulable. It would just be nice to make a little on top if I was to ever part ways with anything in the future.

Just thought it was feasible if others can make a business/ or profit out of the hobby.

[Coinbuf]

On 8/17/2023 at 8:29 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

I don't have an image. I was researching a few coins a few weeks ago with PL designation but no price guide value was listed so I was wondering if someone could clarify why sometimes price guide values aren't available for something.

The price guides are developed from auction data, usually from the auction sites like Heritage, and Stacks.   GC doesn't share their closed auction data with the TPGs so their results do not reflect in the price guides.   If you do a search of the GC archives you might find the data you are looking for.   If there is no (or very limited) recorded auction data because there have only been private transactions or any auction data is so old as to be irrelevant, then the guides will either make an educated guess or have no price listed,

[RWB]

On 8/17/2023 at 11:46 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

It would just be nice to make a little on top if I was to ever part ways with anything in the future.

That is very likely if your purchases are made based on what you like, collected knowledge, and an abundance of patience. However, over time any gain will probably be modest and true investment vehicles will produce a much better return. The rare coin market is tiny, and each piece is evaluated individually by collectors.

Edited August 17, 2023 by RWB

[Sandon]

On 8/17/2023 at 11:29 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

I was wondering if someone could clarify why sometimes price guide values aren't available for something.

   The likely reason is that the editors of the guide don't have reports of sufficient recent transactions at that grade level to determine a reasonable estimate of for what price such a coin would sell. You can try to research it yourself through data from prices realized by the major numismatic auction houses. PCGS compiles this data for coins graded by NGC and ANACS as well as PCGS at Auction Prices Realized - PCGS Auction Prices.  (NGC also compiles this data at its website, but I've often found it to be out of date.) Another option is to check more than one price guide. I'm familiar with and consult the monthly Coin World Values, the quarterly CPG Coin and Currency Market Review, and the online NGC and PCGS price guides. These guides can vary widely.in valuations from coin to coin and grade to grade. The PCGS guide tends to be the highest, often too high in my opinion.

  In my opinion, the entire "top pop" fad is simply an outgrowth of a numerical grading system that has too many grades, especially at the uncirculated level, eleven whole number grades and nearly twenty when "plus" grades, which aren't recognized by the ANA grading system, are included.  Coins are numerically graded based on a number of subjective factors, and a "top pop" grade is often based upon toning or other attributes that the graders, not necessarily you or me, found aesthetically appealing. The people who pay exorbitant premiums for "top pop" coins often have more money than numismatic knowledge or sense. They are collecting numbers on little paper tags, not coins. You should develop your own knowledge of and taste in coins and buy the ones you like at a price you can afford.

[Coinbuf]

On 8/17/2023 at 8:46 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

That's a bummer. I do enjoy just collecting in general coins, minerals, artifacts etc.

I will try to focus more on what I want versus what is vaulable. It would just be nice to make a little on top if I was to ever part ways with anything in the future.

Just thought it was feasible if others can make a business/ or profit out of the hobby.

As a general thought process, putting money into an index fund will grow your net worth faster/more than rare or bullion coins.   This is because coins do not pay dividends, so the only value appreciation comes from rising prices.   The coin market has been in a bull run for several years now and I would still only break even on some of the coins in my collection.   But like all markets this bull run will end and prices will stagnate or even retreat as a possibility, the same is true for stocks but you still have the forward income stream of dividends to continue the value growth.

Making money as a business in coins requires the right contacts, knowledge, and some luck, dealers make money on the buy side not the sale side.   While not impossible it is tough to buy retail and sell for retail+, to make money you have to buy at less than retail to have some room for markup.    Buying at close to retail and then holding and waiting for prices to rise can work, but you are tying up capital during the holding time and you have no way of knowing how long you will have to hold before prices rise enough.   And you have to consider the selling costs for the venue you choose, it costs to sell through auction sites or venues like ebay.

[NeverEnoughCoins09]

On 8/17/2023 at 10:52 AM, RWB said:

That is very likely if your purchases are made based on what your like, collected knowledge, and an abundance of patience. However, over time any gain will probably be modest and true investment vehicles will produce a much better return. The rare coin market is tiny, and each piece is evaluated individually by collectors.

I completely agree true investment vehicles with produce a much better and reliable return on investments especially with TIME. 

Sorry I wasn't trying to sound like passing on a 401k or for a living or anything. I will definitely keep educating myself! Thank you

[EagleRJO]

On 8/17/2023 at 9:15 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

Example is Price guide listed as $17,500 and is Top Pop but has auctioned for $23,000 on high end and also $6000 on low end. Does that just mean demand for this particular coin is not there and people aren't willing to pay?

The simple answer is price guides are just that - a guide.  They are usually based on averages of past auctions.  Actual bids can vary considerably as you indicated depending on who is bidding at the time as others have indicated.

In some cases there may not be enough past auctions to generate a guide price, in which case you can look up the results of past auctions at sites like Great Collections, Heritage Auctions, Sacks Bowers, and ebay.  I do that anyway regardless of if there is a guide price or not.

On 8/17/2023 at 11:46 AM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

It would just be nice to make a little on top if I was to ever part ways with anything in the future ... Just thought it was feasible if others can make a business/ or profit out of the hobby.

As noted coins are not a very good "investment" compared to other investments like stocks, bonds, funds, etc.  And coin dealers generally do not just look for one particular coin, they try to buy popular coins at a good price by being patient and passing on anything they couldn't make a profit on.

On the other hand collectors are looking for particular coins, not just ones they can make money on.  Sometimes they can get them at a good price where they could make a little flipping it, but that's usually not the case.

[EagleRJO]

On 8/17/2023 at 11:20 AM, Coinbuf said:

Great Collections has auctioned several MS68 examples of this coin (there are two current auctions as I type this), and using their auction archives can assist you in finding additional data as GC auctions are not included in either of the NGC or PCGS price guides or auction data.   As you can see all of these sold for well less than the NGC price guide.

@NeverEnoughCoins09 the post by Coinbuf gives a good example of how you can easily look up past auctions of particular coins at the sites I mentioned.  That one is from Great Collections ... GC Auction Archive for 1939 5C Rev of 40 FS

[P.S. It is much easier to search sites like GC and HA by using the "Industry Number" or "PCGS Number" that can be found on PCGS CoinFacts (see attached example which is 894003 for the subject nickel).  I don't know why NGC uses a different "Universal ID" which doesn't work for searching those sites.]

Edited August 17, 2023 by EagleRJO

[RWB]

On 8/17/2023 at 12:00 PM, Sandon said:

  In my opinion, the entire "top pop" fad is simply an outgrowth of a numerical grading system that has too many grades, especially at the uncirculated level, eleven whole number grades and nearly twenty when "plus" grades, which aren't recognized by the ANA grading system, are included.  Coins are numerically graded based on a number of subjective factors, and a "top pop" grade is often based upon toning or other attributes that the graders, not necessarily you or me, found aesthetically appealing. The people who pay exorbitant premiums for "top pop" coins often have more money than numismatic knowledge or sense. They are collecting numbers on little paper tags, not coins. You should develop your own knowledge of and taste in coins and buy the ones you like at a price you can afford.

Also known in the Carney Business as "Squeeze the Rube."

Edited August 17, 2023 by RWB

[Numismatic, A.A.S.]

On 8/17/2023 at 12:02 PM, NeverEnoughCoins09 said:

I completely agree true investment vehicles with produce a much better and reliable return on investments especially with TIME. 

Sorry I wasn't trying to sound like passing on a 401k or for a living or anything. I will definitely keep educating myself! Thank you

 

On 8/17/2023 at 11:39 AM, RWB said:

Numismatics is not an "investment;" it is a hobby. If you go into it with the purpose of increasing your net worth, it is a waste of time and assets.

 What is it called when my Numismatic "Hobby" increases my net worth?

[RWB]

On 8/17/2023 at 6:33 PM, Numismatic, A.A.S. said:

 What is it called when my Numismatic "Hobby" increases my net worth?

"Good luck."

[zadok]

...considering numismatics as n investment endeavor...not for the faint hearted...one should compare n treat it like murder...m.o.m., means, opportunity, motive read as available capital, being in the right place at the right time n the motivation to see it thru...obviously people make money n there r wealthy coin dealers n collectors, the better question, what is the % for success?...there have been several collections sold for tens n even hundreds of million dollars, those collectors were successful in all 3 of the m.o.m. aspects...those aspects basically equate to being smart or even smarter than most of the others trying to do the same thing...most of the persons advising u to not do this r those that either havent tried it or tried it n did not succeed...it is not a quik in n out endeavor its a long journey...i am very comfortable in saying that whenever my collection is liquidated it will yield well over 1000% of my costs, i know i track it n i am fully aware of my yield on those items i have sold off over the years...but those yields would not have provided a sustainable income thru out n my coins were not my only "investments" my other investments were used to buy my coins, so its a multi level long term endeavor...basically dont quit ur day job to get rich while buying coins...n true, coins pay no annual dividends, those come at the end when u dont need them...but if u try n fail u can always just say it was a hobby....

[Jason Abshier]

Pretty much how us hardcore world coin guys feel when we need buy a coin for our collection it’s “Top pop” no price value is listed for it … only worth as much someone willing to pay for it … I own several and several Top pop , “rare” (or I’ll shall say seldom seen) proof German coins and high end Mint state coins and medals the “finest known”  they are only worth what auction prices are listed for them because I won them auctions …. Now if I put them back up for auction will they hit same amount ? Higher ? Lower ? Who knows “Top pop” stuff is little hard to determine a real ball park or solid price for it … what’s it’s like owning Top pop coins ? Eh ? It wears off after a while treat them just like any other coin I have in my collection, what’s it’s like when you got a Top coin it holds for awhile , then some lucky person gets a higher grade than your top pop ? It’s Heart breaking sometimes 😢 HA!😂 

[J P M]

I  agree,

On 8/18/2023 at 7:03 AM, Jason Abshier said:

what’s it’s like owning Top pop coins ? Eh ? It wears off after a while treat them just like any other coin I have in my collection, what’s it’s like when you got a Top coin it holds for awhile , then some lucky person gets a higher grade than your top pop ? It’s Heart breaking sometimes 😢 HA!😂

I have a few Top Pop Nickels that I have picked up cheap. Not that I was looking for them, I just got lucky on the bid or finding them on a shelf in a shop somewhere.  

[Jason Abshier]

@J P M I’d say the Top pop “US coins” hold more merits (harder to get) compared to a World coin that much easier to get the Top pop …. That wasn’t the case for me last night on heritage auctions … I was bidding on 4 different lots Top pop German coins (1 or 2 of them were 2nd best not really top pops) …. It was Signatures series night I was bidding like a heavy hitter over a couple grand on each coin I really wanted for my “life long collection” (coins I put away in my collection that will never ever be for sale again nor will ever see market again until the day I pass on) ….

Man ! I got my butt beat bad in Live bidding I had to pull out it just got way way to extreme for what I wanted to pay for each coin … they drove the prices through the roof it was probably most intense bidding wars I’ve been in for long while on German coinage , new prices levels I haven’t seen increase for long while once sleeper coins were awakened again last night through heritage auctions …. Just hope I get a 2nd chance at them coins again someday in future they are on my hit list just need pack a some more firepower next time they show up for sale 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Jason Abshier

[EagleRJO]

On 8/17/2023 at 6:33 PM, Numismatic, A.A.S. said:

 What is it called when my Numismatic "Hobby" increases my net worth?

A "poor investment" where you likely could have had better returns with more traditional investment vehicles, and hopefully an "enjoyment" for you which is really the point in my mind. 

[zadok]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:39 AM, Jason Abshier said:

@J P M I’d say the Top pop “US coins” hold more merits (harder to get) compared to a World coin that much easier to get the Top pop …. That wasn’t the case for me last night on heritage auctions … I was bidding on 4 different lots Top pop German coins (1 or 2 of them were 2nd best not really top pops) …. It was Signatures series night I was bidding like a heavy hitter over a couple grand on each coin I really wanted for my “life long collection” (coins I put away in my collection that will never ever be for sale again nor will ever see market again until the day I pass on) ….

Man ! I got my butt beat bad in Live bidding I had to pull out it just got way way to extreme for what I wanted to pay for each coin … they drove the prices through the roof it was probably most intense bidding wars I’ve been in for long while on German coinage , new prices levels I haven’t seen increase for long while once sleeper coins were awakened again last night through heritage auctions …. Just hope I get a 2nd chance at them coins again someday in future they are on my hit list just need pack a some more firepower next time they show up for sale 

...been there done that...the real question u have to ask urself..."Which bothers u the most, the missed opportunity of losing the coin or buyers remorse if u overpaid??"...answer that n u know what u should have done....