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If I buy in between PCGS and NGC price is it a good deal retail??
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78 posts in this topic

On 8/12/2022 at 3:05 PM, Diamondslayer said:

If I buy in between PCGS and NGC price is it a good deal retail?? So I paid in between a NGC 3500 and a PCGS 4000. I don't know if I should give anymore info or not. Like the coin info and the price I paid. Shoul I be buying below NGC and where? 

 

Are those the $$$ amounts for the coin in question, $3,500 and $4,000 ?

We have no way of judging since we don't know what coin it is.  It could be a coin that comes up for sale every week or every few weeks....or it could be one that comes up every few months or less.  That is important.

And using recent auction prices for an identical or similar coin is probably the best.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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It is a 1860 double eagle no motto au53 NGC. Feeling nervous, be as diplomatic as possible...lol. And where do you find the auction price?

On 8/12/2022 at 2:10 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Are those the $$$ amounts for the coin in question, $3,500 and $4,000 ?

We have no way of judging since we don't know what coin it is.  It could be a coin that comes up for sale every week or every few weeks....or it could be one that comes up every few months or less.  That is important.

And using recent auction prices for an identical or similar coin is probably the best.

 

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On 8/12/2022 at 3:29 PM, Diamondslayer said:

It is an "S"

 

if you look it up in the NGC price Guide you can get a lot of information an a specific coin. When you find the coin on the list on the left click on the date and mint and a new window will open with info

Edited by J P Mashoke
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Here is a link to the NGC price guide as well as the PCGS price guide, with referenced auction prices.

Liberty Head $20 (1850-1907) | Coin Auction Prices | NGC (ngccoin.com)

Liberty Head $20 (1849-1907) Values - PCGS Price Guide

On 8/12/2022 at 3:53 PM, J P Mashoke said:

if you look it up in the NGC price Guide you can get a lot of information an a specific coin.

I have noticed NGC doesn't seem to keep their prices as up to date as much with recent auction prices (e.g. I think for that coin the latest auction price was like in 2018/2019 or something).  That really is a shame.

 

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On 8/12/2022 at 4:14 PM, EagleRJO said:

Here is a link to the NGC price guide as well as the PCGS price guide, with referenced auction prices.

Liberty Head $20 (1850-1907) | Coin Auction Prices | NGC (ngccoin.com)

Liberty Head $20 (1849-1907) Values - PCGS Price Guide

I have noticed NGC doesn't seem to keep their prices as up to date as much with recent auction prices (e.g. I think for that coin the latest auction price was like in 2018/2019 or something).  That really is a shame.

 

Yes it makes it hard when shopping and prices are four years old . That is why I use others as well and go somewhere in between :roflmao:

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There is no one size fits all formula for coin pricing, a low end (for the grade) poor eye appeal coin might sell for less than guide price while a suburb just miss the next grade up coin with knock out appeal or color may sell for twice guide.    Without seeing the coin all we (or anyone) can do is guess and quote guides or recent auction data.   Guide prices are usually somewhere around retail pricing, while recent auction data (from firms like Heritage or GC) will give you a better feel for a wholesale level pricing.

I looking I found that in Jul 2022 an NGC AU50 coin was auctioned at Heritage for $3,024.   And in Feb 2022 a PCGS AU55 was auctioned by Heritage and fetched $3,240.   Again this is just raw data and I did not look at the coins in those two lots to determine if those coins were (imo) low or high end for the grade coins.   It seems that you spent approx. $3,750 for your coin and using the above auction data it sounds to me as tho you paid full retail+ price.   If the coin you bought is CAC approved or would be considered by experienced collectors and dealers as better than average for an AU53; then the price you paid would be more in line with current market prices, imo.

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On 8/12/2022 at 3:26 PM, Diamondslayer said:

It is a 1860 double eagle no motto au53 NGC. Feeling nervous, be as diplomatic as possible...lol. And where do you find the auction price?

Most of use Heritage Auctions, probably the premier auction site for coins, and Great Collections, a recent up-and-comer.

Here are some recent 1860-S sales from the HA archives:

https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?Nty=1&Ntk=SI_Titles-Desc&Ns=Time|1||Lot+No|0&N=790+231+51+402&Ntt=1860-S+Double+Eagle&ic4=SortBy-071515

You should login/create an account if the coins don't show up.   It looks like sales earlier in 2022 for AU50-58's range from $3,000 to $3,800 or so.  That includes the buyers premium (bp).

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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On 8/12/2022 at 4:56 PM, Coinbuf said:

I looking I found that in Jul 2022 an NGC AU50 coin was auctioned at Heritage for $3,024.   And in Feb 2022 a PCGS AU55 was auctioned by Heritage and fetched $3,240.   Again this is just raw data and I did not look at the coins in those two lots to determine if those coins were (imo) low or high end for the grade coins.   It seems that you spent approx. $3,750 for your coin and using the above auction data it sounds to me as tho you paid full retail+ price.   If the coin you bought is CAC approved or would be considered by experienced collectors and dealers as better than average for an AU53; then the price you paid would be more in line with current market prices, imo.

I agree with Coinbuf.  (thumbsu

Let me add, assuming you create a HA account and can see the prices, I do not believe you paid a bad price for the coin (subject to seeing it, of course).  It seems to be right in the middle of the range for AU coins, though the price appears to drop a large amount when going from AU-58 to AU-50.  Note a recent sale of a PCGS M-61 for just under $10,000 earlier in 2022.

It also appears that these were coins impacted by the SS Republic salvage.  So that may have increased supply (decreased price) or maybe EXPANDED the circle of folks who could collect this coin thus bringing in new buyers who never could afford the previously supply-constrained price (like with the SS Central America and the 1857-S).

I'm not an expert on the 1860-S or the SS Republic so I'll let others chime in. :)

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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   It also matters whether you specifically want to purchase an 1860-S double eagle--few collectors have the resources to collect large denomination gold by date and mint--or are looking for a Type 1 Liberty Head double eagle as a type coin.  Several dates in the 1850s from the Philadelphia and San Francisco mints (such as 1853, 1854 small date, 1856-S, 1857-S) have somewhat lower list prices.  

   I consult both the monthly Coin World "Coin Values" (subscriptions to print and online versions available at coinworld.com) and the quarterly CPG Coin & Currency Market Review, often distributed free of charge at coin shows, in addition to the NGC and PCGS price guides when determining a fair price for a coin.  If I like the coin but the price is a little higher than I want to pay, I politely ask the dealer, "what's the best you can do on this?" If the dealer's best price is still more than I want to pay, I say "no thank you."

   As you are a new collector who presumably knows little about the authentication and grading of rare coins, you should be careful about making purchases of this magnitude, even of purportedly certified coins.  Is the dealer from whom you are buying well established and reputable? Is he a member of the Professional Numismatists Guild ("PNG")?  (Not all reputable dealers are members of the PNG, but those who are members must adhere to a code of conduct.) Are you dealing in person with the dealer, and have you actually examined the coin?  Have you checked the serial number of the coin on NGC Certificate Verification--available on the NGC website--to make sure it matches that of an 1860-S double eagle graded AU53.  (However, some counterfeit holders have had the matching serial number.) You might do well to follow the old adage to "buy the book before the coin" and gain some knowledge about what you want to collect before making major purchases.

 

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BTW, Welcome Aboard, DS. (thumbsu

Do you have an interest in Double Eagles or gold coins in general...or maybe the Liberty type coins ?

Not sure about your level of knowledge and expertise, but there's tons of good stuff on these forums....in the coins sold in the past over at HA (the coin information attached to some of the rarer coins is priceless)....and in some very good Double Eagle books (maybe you have them). 

I follow Double Eagles, but my interest is more in the Saint-Gaudens types.  I do hope to add some Liberty's in the future.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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I do. I want rare coins, and knowing that there are under 1500 of these coins known gets me excited for their future invstment. Plus a real weird fact I like is that this was Lincoln's inaugural year. I would love to have a ship wrecked coin, but funds are tight right now. I hope no more ships are found in the meantime with these 1860-s coins. lol. But, I will keep working hard to build my collection. 

On 8/12/2022 at 4:51 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

BTW, Welcome Aboard, DS. (thumbsu

Do you have an interest in Double Eagles or gold coins in general...or maybe the Liberty type coins ?

Not sure about your level of knowledge and expertise, but there's tons of good stuff on these forums....in the coins sold in the past over at HA (the coin information attached to some of the rarer coins is priceless)....and in some very good Double Eagle books (maybe you have them). 

follow Double Eagles, but my interest is more in the Saint-Gaudens types.  I do hope to add some Liberty's in the future.

 

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 Who told you that there are "under 1500 of these coins known"?  A quick look at the "PCGS Population Report" and the "NGC Census" indicates that NGC and PCGS have numerically graded a total of 1,609 1860-S double eagles and that NGC has assigned an additional 63 impaired pieces a "details" grade. (PCGS does not report its "details" population.)  Additional pieces have likely been graded by other grading services, and there are undoubtedly uncertified pieces.  (Some certified pieces may have been submitted more than once.)  PCGS Coinfacts indicates that 63 1860-S double eagles were recovered from the SS Republic and graded by NGC--probably including the one you are considering--and 18 others were recovered from the SS Brother Jonathan.  Those who want a coin from a shipwreck usually aren't picky about the date.

  With a few notable exceptions, there's no way to know how many pieces out of a specific issue of coin made for circulation presently exist.  Millions of U.S. gold coins were sent to Europe and elsewhere under the international gold standard, and I understand that there are still quantities coming back.  These and pieces that people in the U.S. saved when gold coins were recalled in 1933 are the major sources of classic U.S. gold coins collected today, not shipwrecks.  

   If you really want a "shipwreck coin", you might want to save up for one of the 5,000 or so 1857-S uncirculated double eagles that were recovered from the SS Central America, the most famous salvaged shipwreck.  These are much more attractive than circulated pieces and always in demand.  Coin World lists them at $5,500 in MS 62, $7,750 MS 63.

   While it should have no bearing on your decision, note that Lincoln was elected president in 1860 but not inaugurated until March 4, 1861.

   

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On 8/12/2022 at 6:43 PM, Diamondslayer said:

Plus a real weird fact I like is that this was Lincoln's inaugural year.

Keep in mind that little factoids like the coin is dated the year Lincoln was elected may be interesting to you, but are likely not a factor at all to someone who may be interested in buying it at a later time.

Also, coins are typically not a good "investment" compaired to returns of other traditional investment types historically, and atm it looks like we are in a high price bubble for coins, so i am avoiding buying any of the more expensive coins I may be interested in for now.

Edited by EagleRJO
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On 8/12/2022 at 6:43 PM, Diamondslayer said:

I do. I want rare coins, and knowing that there are under 1500 of these coins known gets me excited for their future invstment. Plus a real weird fact I like is that this was Lincoln's inaugural year. I would love to have a ship wrecked coin, but funds are tight right now. I hope no more ships are found in the meantime with these 1860-s coins. lol. But, I will keep working hard to build my collection. 

I don't believe there are other shipwrecks which went down with American coins.  I think RWB (noted author and researcher) posted here about the SS Republic (I think that was the ship) and how there MIGHT be more Liberty DEs and other gold coins but they've been talking about a salvage for years and are missing key location information. 

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On 8/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, EagleRJO said:

Also, coins are typically not a good "investment" compaired to returns of other traditional investment types historically, and atm it looks like we are in a high price bubble for coins, so i am avoiding buying any of the more expensive coins I may be interested in for now.

Under NO CIRCUMSTANCES should you consider your coins an "investment."  Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, cash -- those are investments.  Coins are like art or baseball cards:  highly speculative.

Eagle, I don't think we are in a "high price bubble" for coins.  Bulls and bears can make a case for higher or lower prices at any time, including the present.  But to me a bubble is 1978-80 or 1989-90.  We've also had big price moves but which weren't bubbles IMO like 2000-08 and 2009-11.

I'm all for a bear case even if I think bullish is in order....but saying we are in a bubble NOW doesn't resonate with me.  If gold prices tanked for some reason, that could drive gold coins alot lower but is gold at unsustainable levels ?  I don't think so.  Trading range going back 5-10 years or so, depending on when you measure from.

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On 8/12/2022 at 9:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, cash -- those are investments.  Coins are like art or baseball cards:  highly speculative.

True, except I don't consider cash an investment, when in fact that's a loser considering inflation even though it's generally recommended to have 3 months' worth of expenses in cash on hand.

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   I collect coins because they fascinate me, not as investments. Numismatics involves many areas of study, including history, artistry, science, technology, and economics.  Yet coins are also assets that can be liquidated should the need arise.  They do tend to increase in at least nominal value over time, although the spread between wholesale and retail values is far greater than for stocks, bonds and other true investment assets.  If you pay a retail price for a coin, its retail value may have to increase by 30% or more before you'll break even whether you sell it to a dealer or at auction.  Additionally, the tax treatment of rare coins and other "collectibles" is less favorable than for traditional investment assets. 

   I do think that we're in a "bubble" for at least some series right now.  Moreover, the value of most high denomination gold coins, even somewhat better dates like the 1860-S double eagle, is strongly influenced by the price of gold, which has been quite volatile lately. At $1,800 per troy ounce, even the most common double eagle, containing 0.975 troy ounce, has a "melt" value of $1,755. If gold were to retreat to $1,350 per oz. as it priced as recently as 2019, this intrinsic value would go down to $1,306.  

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On 8/12/2022 at 9:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Eagle, I don't think we are in a "high price bubble" for coins.

I do disagree, at least for the more costly coins I have been researching and tracking including gold double eagles, gold half eagles, mid to late 1800's half dollars, older dollar coins, trade dollars and less common date Morgans.

There has been a very definitive price spike, in the order of 15% up to 25% for some,  starting around the end of 2021 to early 2022 which is just recently starting to come back to reality.

More so for coins like the common date gold double eagles with the signicant spot price spike earlier this year which has since come back down to reality, like we were discussing in another thread where price spikes tent to not come down as quickly as they may go up. Those increases just are not a normal increase in coin values, again only for the more costly ones I have been researching.

Edited by EagleRJO
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On 8/12/2022 at 11:49 PM, EagleRJO said:

There has been a very definitive price spike, in the order of 15% up to 25% for some,  starting around the end of 2021 to early 2022 which is just recently starting to come back to reality.

Again, in 1980 prices had quadrupled in 18 months.  In 1990, they had doubled in a year or so. 

THAT'S a bubble. xD

I see the 15-20% boost for prices you see, but I think it is a delayed reaction to the 2019-20 pandemic boost in interest in our hobby followed by the stimulus checks.  Originally, we saw all the cheap "junky" stuff that was lower-priced show the biggest increases.  Stuff like Big Denomination Bills in lower-to-mid grades, not the PMG-65 notes costing $3,500 or so.  Silver Morgans and commemoratives like the Saint-Gaudens National Park issues.

The NFT and digital crappola craze seems to have crested, I think maybe that money is going back to traditional stuff like art, antiques, coins, etc.

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If anybody has Roger's SAINTS DOUBLE EAGLE book, check out the price matrices included for every coin going fro 1976 - 2015.   You can see how the coins moved up and down right at key inflection points like 1977, 1980, 1985, 1989-90, 1999-2000, 2008-09, and 2011.

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On 8/12/2022 at 11:49 PM, EagleRJO said:

There has been a very definitive price spike, in the order of 15% up to 25% for some,  starting around the end of 2021 to early 2022 which is just recently starting to come back to reality.

There was a very sharp 10% run-up in the price of gold in early-2022 in reaction to high-flying growth stocks getting slammed, interest rates rising, inflation jumping, and expectations of Chinese/Indian jewelry buying.

With prices having settled back down, sellers have moderated those price spikes of early-2022.

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On 8/12/2022 at 7:39 PM, Sandon said:

 Who told you that there are "under 1500 of these coins known"?  A quick look at the "PCGS Population Report" and the "NGC Census" indicates that NGC and PCGS have numerically graded a total of 1,609 1860-S double eagles and that NGC has assigned an additional 63 impaired pieces a "details" grade. (PCGS does not report its "details" population.)  Additional pieces have likely been graded by other grading services, and there are undoubtedly uncertified pieces.  (Some certified pieces may have been submitted more than once.)  PCGS Coinfacts indicates that 63 1860-S double eagles were recovered from the SS Republic and graded by NGC--probably including the one you are considering--and 18 others were recovered from the SS Brother Jonathan.  Those who want a coin from a shipwreck usually aren't picky about the date.

  With a few notable exceptions, there's no way to know how many pieces out of a specific issue of coin made for circulation presently exist.  Millions of U.S. gold coins were sent to Europe and elsewhere under the international gold standard, and I understand that there are still quantities coming back.  These and pieces that people in the U.S. saved when gold coins were recalled in 1933 are the major sources of classic U.S. gold coins collected today, not shipwrecks.  

   If you really want a "shipwreck coin", you might want to save up for one of the 5,000 or so 1857-S uncirculated double eagles that were recovered from the SS Central America, the most famous salvaged shipwreck.  These are much more attractive than circulated pieces and always in demand.  Coin World lists them at $5,500 in MS 62, $7,750 MS 63.

   While it should have no bearing on your decision, note that Lincoln was elected president in 1860 but not inaugurated until March 4, 1861.

   

No one told me that there were 1500 or less. I knew that there were only a few hundred graded coins, but I thought it was 1500.   Before I looked at the PCGS and NGC graded coins and made the post I thought that graded coins were 1500. (Me and my quick math…whoops) But I was close, and I DID know that they were graded. I know that there are numismatics that don’t believe in grading coins and that there are way more coins out in this world. But they are still pretty rare in my opinion. Especially a graded AU53. I like graded coins because it Is an opinion by a professional. Kinda like a diamond report. Peace of mind and freedom from risk helps the consumer make a decision. That is the reason I need y’all’s opinions too.  But don’t forget, I’m a newbie and I maybe wrong. That is why this post is in the newbie section.  

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On 8/13/2022 at 1:20 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

There was a very sharp 10% run-up in the price of gold in early-2022 ....

I watch gold spot prices and it was a lot more than 10%. Spot was about $1,800/oz to start out the year and went up to $2,050/oz $2,150 in early March, [which is a $250/oz or ~14% increase], before coming back down. I saw about a 25% or so increase in the double eagles, maybe somewhat related to that,  and there was generally a 15% to 20% increase in other more expensive coins, even with one's not so much related to spot prices.

Bubble, spike, etc. whatever you want to label it that is a rapid and unusual rise in the price of coins pretty much across the board for more expensive US coins. I''m seeing some signs of those prices coming back down to reality.

On 8/13/2022 at 6:43 AM, Diamondslayer said:

Peace of mind and freedom from risk helps the consumer make a decision. That is the reason I need y’all’s opinions too.

I got the impression you had already purchased the coin.

Edited by EagleRJO
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On 8/13/2022 at 6:13 AM, EagleRJO said:

I watch gold spot prices and it was a lot more than 10%. Spot was about $1,800/oz to start out the year and went up to $2,050/oz in early March, which is a $350/oz or ~20% increase, before coming back down. I saw about a 25% or so increase in the double eagles, maybe somewhat related to that,  and there was generally a 15% to 20% increase in other more expensive coins, even with one's not so much related to spot prices.

Bubble, spike, etc. whatever you want to label it that is an unusual rise in the price of coins pretty much across the board for more expensive US coins. I''m seeing some signs of those prices coming back down to reality.

I got the impression you had already purchased the coin.

I pulled the trigger yesterday. I just wanted to know what y’all thought.
 

I have been keeping an eye on the futures too. Fundamental analysis says that we are on our way to a major recession. Technical analysis says that we have enough room to break out from here. That is my opinion. This is coming from my outlook on the five year weekly chart and the year daily chart. This is just my opinion and in no way should be taken as investment advice. I am usually wrong, but that is the reason I trade options. This gives me the ability to mitigate loss or turn them into winners with adjustments to my trade. Again, this is not investment advice. 

 

Have I done something wrong? I am not able to ask anymore questions in the newbie section. I have the best account. Please keep me posted!

Edited by Diamondslayer
I was locked out and can no longer ask anymore questions. What did I do wrong?
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On 8/13/2022 at 6:43 AM, Diamondslayer said:

I know that there are numismatics that don’t believe in grading coins and that there are way more coins out in this world. But they are still pretty rare in my opinion. Especially a graded AU53. I like graded coins because it Is an opinion by a professional. 

You'll see many differences of opinion's on that -- by opinion's, I mean INFLAMMATORY back-and-forth xD -- but I think most here would agree that unless you are an expert or have expertise in a particular coin, don't buy ungraded especially for Big Buck$$$.  So I applaud you. (thumbsu

On 8/13/2022 at 6:43 AM, Diamondslayer said:

That is the reason I need y’all’s opinions too.  But don’t forget, I’m a newbie and I maybe wrong. That is why this post is in the newbie section.  

Hey, that's what we are here for....we ALL were where you are, learning and gathering information.:)

When I bought my original Saint Double Eagles, they were generic commons in MS-65 so the premium to gold was maybe 15-20% or so.  There wasn't much risk in the coin.  My most recent purchase was an MS-66 1923-D at FUN 2020 where the premium was much closer to 75%.  Other more scarce purchases I hope to make in coming years may see premiums to gold bullion of 100-500%. 

So I will spend lots of time doing DD before buying these coins, it is basic common sense.  If I overpay on a $200 commemorative or whatnot, no big deal. (thumbsu

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On 8/13/2022 at 7:13 AM, EagleRJO said:

Spot was about $1,800/oz to start out the year and went up to $2,050/oz in early March, which is a $350/oz or ~20% increase, before coming back down.

That's $250 or about 14%.  Throw out your calculator and get a new one. xD  

Also, that price was a spike up and it didn't last long.  Had we held $2,000-$2,050 for a few months lots of coins would have been marked up even more for a longer period of time.

On 8/13/2022 at 7:13 AM, EagleRJO said:

I saw about a 25% or so increase in the double eagles, maybe somewhat related to that,  and there was generally a 15% to 20% increase in other more expensive coins, even with one's not so much related to spot prices. Bubble, spike, etc. whatever you want to label it that is a rapid and unusual rise in the price of coins pretty much across the board for more expensive US coins. I''m seeing some signs of those prices coming back down to reality.

Whenever you get a rapid price rise you can see irrational pricing moves.  Some dealers are slow to raise prices, because they may have a relatively low cost-basis.  Others try and take advantage of the price rise and reap a windfall.  If a dealer needs to re-buy inventory at the new, higher price...that also impacts their sell prices.

I can assure you -- and some of our dealer friends can chime in with more specifics -- that had you seen that 1-month rise of $250 take place over MONTHS with a $30-$40 move per month, the price moves would have been LOWER and more gradual.  Some dealers and sellers who priced stuff when gold crossed $2,000 (the 2nd time in 2 years) may have thought we were definitely on our way to $2,200 or even $2,500 and priced accordingly.

Eagle, you and I are generally in agreement, just off a bit on timing and magnitude.  I agree with you on prices being more rationale of late.....if you check out my charts comparing Saint Double Eagles vs. Gold Bullion, the price of the coins always takes time to have the premium and/or price boost come out of the sellers/dealers asking price.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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