How accurate is NGC price guide? 0

[Jblindy]

I’m came  across a very nicely toned NGC graded Morgan so I looked up the certification on NGC. NGC has this particular coin priced at $95, however the eBay seller is asking $329. Does the NGC price reflect the premium for a nicely toned Morgan?  Is this seller just preying on uninformed buyers?

[Mohawk]

Hi Jblindy!

The NGC Price Guide is accurate for some things, but it's not very helpful for others.  It could be the toning that's making the seller ask for a premium and it likely is.  It's also possible that the seller is just overpriced.  Without seeing the coin, it's hard to say, but on some things, the NGC Price Guide can be of limited usefulness.

[VKurtB]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:28 PM, Jblindy said:

I’m came  across a very nicely toned NGC graded Morgan so I looked up the certification on NGC. NGC has this particular coin priced at $95, however the eBay seller is asking $329. Does the NGC price reflect the premium for a nicely toned Morgan?  Is this seller just preying on uninformed buyers?

Some sellers seek incredible markups for toning. I have a word for people who pay greatly increased sums for colored coins - suckers. Check the seller’s other items. If they are ALL similarly colored, he’s “cooking”.

Edited October 5, 2021 by VKurtB

[Jblindy]

On 10/4/2021 at 9:33 PM, Mohawk said:

Hi Jblindy!

The NGC Price Guide is accurate for some things, but it's not very helpful for others.  It could be the toning that's making the seller ask for a premium and it likely is.  It's also possible that the seller is just overpriced.  Without seeing the coin, it's hard to say, but on some things, the NGC Price Guide can be of limited usefulness.

 

[VKurtB]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:42 PM, Jblindy said:

 

Some people would love this to death. To me, it’s a big YUCK!

[Mohawk]

Thanks for the pics, Jblindy!!

Now, I can confidently say that the premium is definitely for the toning.  You basically have to decide now if that toning is worth the price to you.  Like Kurt said, some people would love this but others, such as Kurt himself, would not.  This is an area that's very much driven by personal taste.

[Jblindy]

On 10/4/2021 at 9:44 PM, VKurtB said:

Some people would love this to death. To me, it’s a big YUCK!

I’ll admit that I’m one of those guys. The toning, especially the colorful toning, intrigues me.  If this one were cheaper I’d be all over it, but no way in hell am I paying a 200% premium. I don’t like it that much. 

[Mohawk]

On 10/4/2021 at 10:33 PM, Jblindy said:

I’ll admit that I’m one of those guys. The toning, especially the colorful toning, intrigues me.  If this one were cheaper I’d be all over it, but no way in hell am I paying a 200% premium. I don’t like it that much. 

I'd say that's a good decision.  200% for toning is a little excessive, in my opinion.

[Coinbuf]

A seller can ask anything, buyers have to decide if the price is "ok" to them.  Unfortunately due to the huge demand for crayon colored coins like this the price guides are almost never going to match the market price. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by Coinbuf

[RonnieR131]

I think it's natural toning, but price is more than 200%. Welcome to the chat boards, and enjoy the hobby.

[numisport]

I'm guessing NGC did not give a Star to the MS 61 or 62 coin. 

[jimbo27]

I found your coin on RBCoins.com, there are 1013 1886 philly morgans on this site, not a rare coin. Your coin is a ms63, I found a ms65 lighty toned for $215. I always used RBCoins when I was buying morgans, great place to compare prices and coins

[VKurtB]

On the heavily colored coin, I see obverse scratching and EXTREME amounts of reverse side chatter, even in protected areas. I’d never pay over whatever the MS 60 retail is, minus about 25%. That’s just the way I roll.

[Jblindy]

On 10/5/2021 at 12:31 PM, VKurtB said:

On the heavily colored coin, I see obverse scratching and EXTREME amounts of reverse side chatter, even in protected areas. I’d never pay over whatever the MS 60 retail is, minus about 25%. That’s just the way I roll.

The coin I pictured is an NGC slabbed MS63*. 

 

On 10/5/2021 at 12:09 PM, jimbo27 said:

I found your coin on RBCoins.com, there are 1013 1886 philly morgans on this site, not a rare coin. Your coin is a ms63, I found a ms65 lighty toned for $215. I always used RBCoins when I was buying morgans, great place to compare prices and coins

Thanks for the heads up. I’ll check them out. 

[RWB]

All "price guides" are exactly what the name says: "guides." They are not absolute values, but merely approximations and references. Higher priced coins are bought and sold as individual pieces depending on objective and subjective factors. This is unlike stocks or commodities. The same date, mintmark and "grade" coin might sell for hundreds or thousands of dollars depending on it's appeal to a specific buyer. Lower priced coins are often lumped together into averages for guides, but the quantities sold in any week or month are usually too small to give a really accurate average or even range of values.

The OP's example is unusual for the disparity between the "guide" and what one seller is asking; however, other sellers might have much different prices - or even below the "guide." You best approach is to compare a lot of similar pieces, then decide if one of them - or none - meet your interests and budget. Waiting can also help improve your chance of getting a fair deal.

Edited October 5, 2021 by RWB

[Jblindy]

@RWB I am doing just that. I have about 75 coins in my watch list currently. Taking the time to research the lot of them to narrow down the few I like the best. Unfortunately, for the near future, I will have to keep my purchases to graded coins until my eye is better at identifying coin grades. There are several ungraded coins that I’m interested in. I just don’t trust my judgment yet. I’m working on it though. Combing through pictures, comparing coins of different grades, but it seems coin grading as a whole is a bit subjective. I have seen several MS65 coins which, to me, look worse than say an MS63. 

[RWB]

Good for you. Buy the coin - not the plastic. Be very critical of raw coins - many are fine and good values, but a lot are rejects or damaged/cleaned in some way. Check for return conditions.