When will Ikes time come?

[cladking]

From what I understand. this is what occurred.

 

He was asked: "What do you think about Ike Dollars?"

His reply: "I'm glad you asked that!" was Mark's reply. "Let me answer that with an

example for you. The other night a proof Jefferson nickel, a 1975 I think, in one of our

competitor's slabs, sold for more money than a 1794 dime! Think about that for a minute.....a

1975 nickel that a few years down the road will be probably be worth just that....a nickel.

THAT'S what I think about Ike Dollars!"

 

 

As much as comments like this sting those of us who love and collect the coins they will

actually create far more demand than they squelch in the long run. People are simply

drawn to collectibles that create controversy and strong emotions. Someday people

will see just how scarce nice attractive Ikes are and they will then discover just how

elusive they are.

[RWB]

The Eisenhower Dollar's time came and went while this thread was being read.

 

Now, who collects truck stop Elvis portraits? When will their time come?

[19Lyds]

 

Maybe there is a stigma on them as a "failed coin" since they never were that popular.

 

 

It's not that they are a failed coin. The problem has always been exactly the same

thing; they were made after 1964 when silver was removed from the coinage. Even

worse Ikes were made in cu/ ni clad so they will always be hated by some.

 

The Ike was as successful as a large dollar could have been in that era.

 

I disagree Cladking.

 

There has NEVER been a dollar coin that has actually circulated in this country! The Morgan and Peace Dollars suffered the exact fate as the Eisenhower Dollar. They sat in bank vaults by the bags. Waiting! Waiting for some business to order them to give out as change.

 

Nobody did because there was a "cheaper to Ship" and "Easier to Handle" paper counterpart.

 

The failure of the Eisenhower Dollar to circulate had little if anything to do with the fact that it contained silver. (Look at the Kennedy. Silver until 1969 yet even that coin didn't "circulate".) It had to do with the fact that the Federal Government did not eliminate the "one dollar note".

 

If they made a silver one dollar coin today that had an assayed value of one dollars worth of silver in it, it still wouldn't circulate because "Merchants" and "Large Box Stores" DO NOT NEED DOLLAR COINS.

 

[cladking]

 

There has NEVER been a dollar coin that has actually circulated in this country!

The Morgan and Peace Dollars suffered the exact fate as the Eisenhower Dollar.

They sat in bank vaults by the bags. Waiting! Waiting for some business to order them

to give out as change.

 

Nobody did because there was a "cheaper to Ship" and "Easier to Handle" paper counterpart.

 

The failure of the Eisenhower Dollar to circulate had little if anything to do with the fact

that it contained silver. (Look at the Kennedy. Silver until 1969 yet even that coin didn't

"circulate".) It had to do with the fact that the Federal Government did not eliminate the

"one dollar note".

 

If they made a silver one dollar coin today that had an assayed value of one dollars worth

of silver in it, it still wouldn't circulate because "Merchants" and "Large Box Stores" DO NOT

NEED DOLLAR COINS.

 

I didn't mean to suggest that the Ike was successful, merely that it was as successful

as a large dollar could be in 1971-'80 (when they stopped circulating). That most have

little or no wear is testament to how well they circulated. Those VF's, XF's and AU's came

from somewhere though and that was circulation.

 

No dollar coin will circulate, no coin will circulate, if banks don't distribute them. This

is the problem now and it was in 1971.

 

The reason people hate moderns is that the mint, FED and Congress did everything

they could to discourage collecting in 1965. Just the switch to clad probably would have

sufficed to kill coin collecting for newbies but they didn't know that until 1968. The Ike was

made after the death of circulating coin finds, it was clad, and it was junk. Nothing what-

soever has changed in most collectors' minds. Even younger collectors who weren't around

in 1965 have had the hatred for clad passed to them like a baton in a marathon race. Collectors

who might have liked clads have just been excluded from the "party". The disdain for base

metal moderns is ubiquitous and even extrends to most countries of the world.

 

But Ike's time will come because everything changes. Nothing remains as it is.

 

Times change and they usually seem to have changed very suddenly after the fact.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

I dunno. Clad coins don't turn me off. I am a newb and a minority but my one 3 cent piece is a good a curiousity as any coin I have.

 

Could there be truth to the statement the silver content of coins created scarcity when the siover became worth more than the face value.

 

Interesting point about dollar coins never being popular as curriency. Are there any studies of how many times this or that coin changed hands? Now for example I slend most of my money electronically or through checks. Did Pa Ingalls spend most of his in cash?

[coinman_23885]

Ya'll should have seen the ones that Shane had at the NGC luncheon today - these were absolutely gorgeous, naturally toned, monster proofs. Still a big ugly coin - but the metal disc was more of a serving platter for the nice color on these.

 

It was really funny though, someone asked the exact same question to Mark Salzberg, wondering what his opinion was on Ikes. He made it very clear that he was not a fan of them at all, and had no idea why anyone would be. It was actually pretty funny, and he was ripping pretty hard on the Ike guys.

From what I understand. this is what occurred.

 

He was asked: "What do you think about Ike Dollars?"

His reply: "I'm glad you asked that!" was Mark's reply. "Let me answer that with an example for you. The other night a proof Jefferson nickel, a 1975 I think, in one of our competitor's slabs, sold for more money than a 1794 dime! Think about that for a minute.....a 1975 nickel that a few years down the road will be probably be worth just that....a nickel. THAT'S what I think about Ike Dollars!"

 

Huh? Was he possibly referring to the 1975 No S Dime? After all, he was comparing it to a dime.

 

Hey wait, there weren't any "dimes" in 1794. Half Dimes perhaps but no dimes.

 

All in all, I thought the response was childish and certainly not up to par with the "chairman" of a company whose only job is to "grade" coins. Presumably, the "Chairman" wouold have a knowledge of ALL collectible coins and not simply "diss" one particular design out of a lack of knowledge about the coin.

 

Perhaps he want's folks to stop submitting Eisenhower Dollars for grading at NGC? What's next? Stop submitting "Proof Nickels"? Lincoln Cents? Anything minted after 1938?

 

How about NGC, instead, stop buying into this Early Release Label Game? Or maybe the FIRST DAY OF ISSUE and LONG BEACH RELEASE labels for the Marshall's Service coins? Or the other baloney labels that NGC uses to bolster its bulk submitter business?

 

What an intellectually arrogant response.

 

 

Even if I was inclined to agree with him on some things (i.e. the value of certain/many moderns being inflated), I do agree that this was a very odd statement for him to make given that his company gains much revenue from the slabbing of moderns.

[19Lyds]

 

There has NEVER been a dollar coin that has actually circulated in this country!

The Morgan and Peace Dollars suffered the exact fate as the Eisenhower Dollar.

They sat in bank vaults by the bags. Waiting! Waiting for some business to order them

to give out as change.

 

Nobody did because there was a "cheaper to Ship" and "Easier to Handle" paper counterpart.

 

The failure of the Eisenhower Dollar to circulate had little if anything to do with the fact

that it contained silver. (Look at the Kennedy. Silver until 1969 yet even that coin didn't

"circulate".) It had to do with the fact that the Federal Government did not eliminate the

"one dollar note".

 

If they made a silver one dollar coin today that had an assayed value of one dollars worth

of silver in it, it still wouldn't circulate because "Merchants" and "Large Box Stores" DO NOT

NEED DOLLAR COINS.

 

I didn't mean to suggest that the Ike was successful, merely that it was as successful

as a large dollar could be in 1971-'80 (when they stopped circulating). That most have

little or no wear is testament to how well they circulated. Those VF's, XF's and AU's came

from somewhere though and that was circulation.

 

No dollar coin will circulate, no coin will circulate, if banks don't distribute them. This

is the problem now and it was in 1971.

 

The reason people hate moderns is that the mint, FED and Congress did everything

they could to discourage collecting in 1965. Just the switch to clad probably would have

sufficed to kill coin collecting for newbies but they didn't know that until 1968. The Ike was

made after the death of circulating coin finds, it was clad, and it was junk. Nothing what-

soever has changed in most collectors' minds. Even younger collectors who weren't around

in 1965 have had the hatred for clad passed to them like a baton in a marathon race. Collectors

who might have liked clads have just been excluded from the "party". The disdain for base

metal moderns is ubiquitous and even extrends to most countries of the world.

 

But Ike's time will come because everything changes. Nothing remains as it is.

 

Times change and they usually seem to have changed very suddenly after the fact.

Another minor point ( or is it major? ) of disagreement with the statement "if banks don't distribute them."

"Banks" only respond to their "merchant" customer needs as far as the Federal Reserve is considered and truth be told, "banks" freely "circulate" Eisenhower Dollars. I can go into ANY bank and ask for the "IKE" in the cash drawer if the teller has one.

 

The REAL PROBLEM is that merchants "refuse" to order the coins from the Banks. It is cheaper for them to order the paper bills.

 

The ONLY way to get a Dollar Coin to actually "circulate" is to eliminate the printing of the paper dollar like the rest of the world has already done without any problems what-so-ever. Lack of "use" has absolutely NOTHING to do with the coins design as the only people that really care about the design is either the religious zealots or coin collectors and neither group can do a damn thing about getting merchants to order and use a dollar coin as long as there is a paper dollar counterpart.

 

This perpetual baloney that is distributed regarding the "failure" of the Eisenhower Dollar is nothing more than that. Pure BALONEY!

 

From a numismatic standpoint, the design of the coin is as fantastic as the design of the Roosevelt, Jefferson, Washington, Kennedy or lowly Lincoln. It shows the portrait of a President in the typical tradition of modern coin design.

 

The Eisenhower dollar was not successful because "merchants" refused to order and use the coin in lieu of the paper dollar. Anything OTHER than that statement is just baloney.

[World Colonial]

No dollar coin will circulate, no coin will circulate, if banks don't distribute them. This is the problem now and it was in 1971.

 

The reason dollar coins do not circulate is due to the reason provided in this forum and on PCGS in the past, including 19Lyds in the post you quoted. The public rejects dollar coins because the alternatives are more convenient, not because the banks fail to promote them. If the Ike was still issued today and no paper dollar was available, there is still no reason to believe it would be widely used. Hardly anyone would be bothered to carry around multiples of such a large coin with such minimal purchasing power. They would use electronic payments almost exclusively.

 

I don't know what you expect of banks with these or any other coins. It isn't the role of banks to promote collecting. Coins are distributed because of public demand and I presume primarily by business to provide consumers change. This is probably 95% of it at least.

 

Since their are billions of Ikes and its successors in vaults because the public returned them or never wanted them, why exactly would any bank give them to any customer who never asked for it?

[World Colonial]

The reason people hate moderns is that the mint, FED and Congress did everything they could to discourage collecting in 1965. Just the switch to clad probably would havesufficed to kill coin collecting for newbies but they didn't know that until 1968. The Ike wasmade after the death of circulating coin finds, it was clad, and it was junk. Nothing whatsoever has changed in most collectors' minds. Even younger collectors who weren't around in 1965 have had the hatred for clad passed to them like a baton in a marathon race. Collectors who might have liked clads have just been excluded from the "party". The disdain for base metal moderns is ubiquitous and even extrends to most countries of the world

 

But Ike's time will come because everything changes. Nothing remains as it is.

 

Times change and they usually seem to have changed very suddenly after the fact.

 

What is your definition of “coming”?

 

As I already demonstrated by the Registry Set data, the Ike dollar is already popular measured by the number of collectors. To add additional context, the Ike has fewer sets than the Morgan dollar in the combined registry and about the same as the Peace dollar but more than practically all others.

 

I did not check NGC for other series since it is cumbersome to view the participant counts. But in PCGS, the only 20th century classic series which have more participants are the Washington quarter and the Lincoln wheat cent. Yes, you heard me correctly. Right now, there are more circulation strike Ike Registry Sets than Buffalo nickels, Mercury dimes, SLQ and WLH.

I don’t believe there are more Ike collectors than these classic series, since it is a cheaper set to complete. Based upon this data, wouldn’t you say the Ike dollar is quite popular despite posts here claiming otherwise? It certainly is not “hated” as you claim.

The tens of thousands of coins in the combined census, someone has to own them and unlike Morgan and Peace dollars, we both know it certainly isn’t “investors” who own them by the roll or bag. They are owned by collectors and its unlikely that many are owned in multiple.

 

No, what you really mean is the price level but I have already addressed it in this thread.

 

First, the current supply isn’t really that low and the actual supply (whether my estimates are accurate or not) is going to be even greater. Second, going by the census, Ikes don’t appear to be any scarcer than many if not most 20th century classics in the same grade, except maybe for “conditional rarities” which I have not compared. Third, I don’t believe that Ikes in a grade such as MS-66 are priced much lower than these other coins with comparable supply but you can tell me otherwise if you have evidence to support it. And when I say evidence, I am not referring to the Morgan or Peace dollar because a direct comparison isn’t valid.

[cladking]

 

 

Since their are billions of Ikes and its successors in vaults because the public returned them or never wanted them, why exactly would any bank give them to any customer who never asked for it?

 

Billions of Ikes, eh?

 

All together there weren't even one billion made. One even had a mintage comparable to the 1884-S dollar. There were actually fewer issued for circulation. This specific coin was horribly made so nice attractive specimens are tough in all grades.

 

Large mintages don't assure large numbers of nice coins and it doesn't assure any coins will be saved. People simply don't save coins they percieve as being common.

[World Colonial]

Someday people will see just how scarce nice attractive Ikes are and they will then discover just how elusive they are.

 

Let's get down to specifics. What quality on the TPG scale do you have in mind?

 

Is it MS-67? If so, these are all "conditional rarities" and they are "scarce" or "rare" by definition.

 

Is it MS-66? if so, I have already provided data which shows that:

 

1) By current census counts, Ikes are more available than many of the most common classics in this grade. I agree that they are likely scarcer than many of these coins in grade, but neither of us actually know how many because we do not know the actual grade distribution of either.

 

2) Based upon what is known from collecting elsewhere, most of these probably are at most an R-1 on the Judd scale with over 1250 actual survivors.

 

Do you agree or disagree with these? If you disagree, then what is the basis for it and what are your estimates?

 

If you consider my estimates "directionally accurate", then why do consider these coins remotely scarce? Most of these coins can be bought easily in this grade even if the census never increases at all, as is true of practically any other coin.

 

Or lastly, are you not directly comparing the scarcity of Ikes to other series in the same grade? For example, do you consider an NGC or PCGS MS-66 as your MS-65 to which you then compare to an MS-66 in another series?

 

I will add comments on pricing once you provide your reply.

[World Colonial]

Billions of Ikes, eh?

 

All together there weren't even one billion made. One even had a mintage comparable to the 1884-S dollar. There were actually fewer issued for circulation. This specific coin was horribly made so nice attractive specimens are tough in all grades.

 

Large mintages don't assure large numbers of nice coins and it doesn't assure any coins will be saved. People simply don't save coins they percieve as being common.

 

Try interpreting my post correctly. I was referring to ALL base metal dollars, not just Ikes. And I said nothing about the quality distribution in this post.

[e1cnr]

For current collectors, it is already here or will never be here.

 

The demand will only grow with future collectors, or statehood quarter collectors moving to another series.

[cladking]

1) By current census counts, Ikes are more available than many of the most common classics in this grade. I agree that they are likely scarcer than many of these coins in grade, but neither of us actually know how many because we do not know the actual grade distribution of either.

 

You're comparing apples and oranges.

 

There are numerous advantages to collecting moderns and ALWAYS have been. This is why moderns have always been a large part of collections until modern times; 1965. Each collector tended to collect every set he collected right up to the current date. This is why many of the classic coins exist at all; they were collected and protected.

 

One of the many advantages of collecting modern coins (especially now days) is that nice attractive complete sets are highly affordable. Those who can't afford MS-66 can collect nice gemmy coins in MS-64+ for almost nothing. If you like MS-60's they can be found at the corner bank for a dollar. Try putting together a bust dollar collection in XF or AU! Try MS-67. There's nothing wrong with bust dollars and there's nothing wrong with them in nice AG but there are lots of stoppers and the set will require many thousands of dollars even in AG. Many of the coins will be "played with" no matter what so there's always a market risk since the market can redefine what appearances are acceptable and what aren't. If you don't buy slabs then the risk is extreme but Ikes can be bought in Gem with almost no market risk and little chance the coin has been modified. There's no comparison in cost.

 

Another market risk that is usually understated is "demographic risk". There are many hundreds of bust dollar collections and countless thousands mnore in collections and these will be coming on the market in the next fifteen years. Ike collections are not going to be coming on the market because there aren't so many. This would be easy to underestimate but the fact is almost every collection of coins that come into a coin shop simply end at 1965 because people simply quit collecting then. This isn't going to change for a very long time. The few modern collections out there tend to be in the hands of younger collectors.

 

I don't why you think these are all unknown quantities. I've been out there looking and the simple answer is the coins are garbage. People quit looking at their coins and the mint quit caring what they looked like.

 

Sampling of the coins will provide very accurate estimates of the numbers in each grade. Generally your estimates look somewhat closer to mintages than survivorship. While nice Ikes have a much higher survivorship than other denominations the numbers saved are still quite low in most cases. Some moderns have huge mintages but each coin regardless of quality had a much better than 99.9% chance of going straight into circulation. People simply weren't out there going through rolls of 1974 Ikes to save them. Most of the ones saved are virtually random and the random Ike is very unattractive. This is just the way it is because people chose to ignore coins for 35 years between 1964 and 1999. A few people saved what they could. Everything else either didn't survive, was highly degraded, or somehow had the odds work in its favor.

[World Colonial]

I am not comparing apples to oranges.

 

 

I provided specific numbers of my "guestimates" which you either agree with or do not. It is as simple as that.

 

The only reason I can see that you disagree with them and did not provide your own is because the coins are actually a lot more common than you imply and you know full well that they are.

 

As for sampling, I can repost the comments I made on the 1983-P Washington quarter if necessary. Your sampling isn't statistically representative to arrive at any level of precision to your implied claims either. As I told you before in the prior post, there is a large margin of variability in any estimate and the differences between your and my estimates are a statistical rounding error.

 

I am aware that moderns are collected as you claim, though not the exact specifics as you. What I was using the Registry data for (if this what you replied to) is to show that there are a lot of Ike collectors which contradicts your claims that the coins are remotely "hated".

 

Your comments on demographic here are relevant to availability, but not the scarcity of any coin. But in any event, availability is never going to be a consideration for moderns except for specialization. The prices will change but there isn't any question of whether the coins will be available to be bought.

 

[cladking]

 

Try interpreting my post correctly. I was referring to ALL base metal dollars, not just Ikes. And I said nothing about the quality distribution in this post.

 

I could have given you the benefit of the doubt with my interpretation. I stand corrected.

 

I mentioned quality distribution because "quality distribution" is paramount for value in the 1884-S dollar. The coin had a mintage even higher than one of the Ikes so it's hardly surprising it's just a typical silver dollar in low grade and cull condition; it's worth melt or a little more. But as you go up the grade scale a remarkable thing happens as it's a $6000 coin in Unc and is over a quarter million dollars in high end Gem.

 

 

[cladking]

 

 

I provided specific numbers of my "guestimates" which you either agree with or do not. It is as simple as that.

 

Perhaps I'll go back later and explore them in more detail but your numbers tend much too high. There is great variability between dates.

 

As for sampling, I can repost the comments I made on the 1983-P Washington quarter if necessary. Your sampling isn't statistically representative to arrive at any level of precision to your implied claims either.

 

Of course the sampling is accurate. It doesn't have to be accurate because there might have been dozens of people sampling a different universe of coins (like those in eastern Oregon or the Virgin Islands) and one or more of these collectors might have set aside vast numbers of Gems from a bank bag or maybe an entire pallet.

 

But people were not doing this and this is a fact. It's true that the '82-P quarters that were placed into mint sets tend to be much nicer than average showing that a few people did care but the fact remains that most of these different types of sets have no Gems whatrsoever. The mint, for instance, has always taken care to put nicer coins in their "souvenir mint sets" that they sold each year. In 1982 the Philly mint made 10,000 of these but not a single Gem is included in this number. Every coin misses on at least two parameters. This is the primary source for Unc examples of this date. No Gems.

 

What I was using the Registry data for (if this what you replied to) is to show that there are a lot of Ike collectors which contradicts your claims that the coins are remotely "hated".

 

OK, so 1,000 people don't hate Ikes. I'd wager there aren't 1000 people in the world who hate bust dollars and Morgans combined.

 

But in any event, availability is never going to be a consideration for moderns except for specialization. The prices will change but there isn't any question of whether the coins will be available to be bought.

 

How many chGem 1969 quarters or '76 Ikes are there going to be?

 

If you mean that everything currently surviving will still be around later even this is iffy. How about the '75 dime or the '64 clad quarter? One of the '13 lib 5c was missing many years.

[cladking]

 

Let's get down to specifics. What quality on the TPG scale do you have in mind?

 

 

I think in somewhat different terms.

 

I know a nice Gem when I see it. These run the gauntlet from MS-65 to MS-67. I like well struck coins from new dies. I don't like marks of any kind including chicken scratching, die scratches, and rim dings. If a coin has any significant problem then it's not a nice Gem to me. Most all (modern) coins graded MS-66 and MS-67 are "nice Gems" though some will be borderline. MS-65 coins are more hit and miss. No Ike is truly common in this grade. The '77 and '78-D come closest. Does that mean they are as scarce as 1804 dollars? Of course not (well, mebbe the '76 is). Mintages could have been fairly high on a few of these but contraryt to popular belief most are degraded now. There are a lot of AU's ands sliders. Not so many Uncs and XF's. The Uncs tend to be baggy from years of handling. Most weren't much to look at when they were new.

 

If you're sitting back watching the pops grow then these coins are really very common. But if you've been trying to find nice examples for 35 years they are scarcer than hen's teeth. It's a matter of perspective.

 

Here's the way I think of their availability. About 2% of most mint set Ikes stand out as being clearly superior to other mint set Ikes. In '77 and '78-D's these are Gems and most are nice. In other dates the top 2% might be little better than what is considered chBU and few will be true Gem. Somewhere between about 0.15 and 1.75% of a date will be Gem.

 

This is a very large number compared to old rarities, of course. I always hesitate to say how to calculate this number because it is very very misleading. First, large percentages of these mint sets are gone now because people never cared about them. Don't figure 2% of two million, figure .15% of half a million. Secondly consider that a very very common modern like the '70-S sm dt cent appears in 10% of sets and has been saved for decades so most survive. It is collected only by "specialists" yet it still wholesales for $50. But the widely hated regular issue Ike that's fifty times scarcer might go for less than the cost of grading. And this is grading that isn't really needed because with moderns what you see is what you get. The average collector has no reason to pay for grading unless he's selling high grades or buying for large premiums. In other words scarce and hated coins can be puyurchased for less than their nominal face value when including slabbing costs!!!

 

Is this thing on?

[World Colonial]

I am not proficient at quoting your multiple comments, so this will have to do.

 

I did not say that 1250+ existed for all of the dates, but for most of them and I am specifically referring to clads, not silver. In the PCGS census alone, most of them have a count in MS-66 over 300 and many are quite a bit higher. In the NGC census, there are more to be added and though I don't know the difference in grading standards, at least some of these coins are eligible for a cross over and vice versa. I presume that PCGS is somewhat stricter but don't actually know it which is why I use it as my primary benchmark.

 

So now, given the current counts and the prices for most of these coins, why would I or anyone else believe that coins that are disproportionately worth in the range of $100 have mostly been graded? What about all the coins in storage? Yes I know, that some, many or most of these might or will be degraded by the time they are released but tis is precisely one of the factors which makes any sampling you have done unreliable in the context of the claims you make.

 

As I told you in the 1983-P quarter post when commenting on sampling, you really believe your observations and even of everyone else who is looking for these coins is so accurate that it can identify whether there are only as many as 900 additional MS-66 (to reach my "guestimate") out of original mintages of tens of millions for each date/MM combination? If you think you can show it, then you can include it in your reply. This is what I call a statistical rounding error.

 

You would literally have to sample hundreds of thousands ((if not millions) of coins randomly for each date/MM and each coin isn't available for inclusion in the population.

 

You never commented on it, but I assume you believe that post 1933 classics are disproportionately or mostly more common in MS-66 grade than Ikes. I also believe this generally but the fact is that there isn't any way to know it either. The census lists some with higher or much higher counts such as the 1938-D Buffalo nickel but it is actually an outlier. Other such as 1940's LWH, most (if not all) Franklin halves (without FBL) and many silver Washington quarters were saved by the roll in large quantities or so I have heard. However, there isn't any way to actually know how many MS-66 coins are available. I presume it is many but it might be less than both of us believe.

 

But just as with Ikes, I presume most of these coins haven't been graded for mostly the same reason. The prices of the most common issues in MS-66 are also low which doesn't justify it economically. I just assume that more Ikes proportionately have been graded than many of these common classics.

 

Next, it isn't just 1000 who don't "hate" Ikes. The census counts imply that as many as tens of thousands do collect them regardless that all are not in the registry. This is a very large number, regardless that fewer collectors collect the series than do with Morgans or these other common classics. As I stated before, this contradicts your claims that collectors generally "hate" them. Other just prefer to collect something else.

 

Lastly, on your comments on ch gem specimens, these are "conditional rarities". None of these in the Ike or any other series will ever become a widely collect market. It isn't relevant to most collectors.

 

Or if they are not, then you still have provided no reason why they won't be available. If an MS-66 Ike, many current PCGS counts are about equal to original mintages (not survivors) of the 1839 UK short proof set (300), 1935 New Zealand proof set (364) and 1950 South Africa proof set (500). None of these coins are hard to buy and neither is any US classic with these numbers. Why would Ikes or any modern be different?

 

[World Colonial]

If you're sitting back watching the pops grow then these coins are really very common. But if you've been trying to find nice examples for 35 years they are scarcer than hen's teeth. It's a matter of perspective.

 

Here's the way I think of their availability. About 2% of most mint set Ikes stand out as being clearly superior to other mint set Ikes. In '77 and '78-D's these are Gems and most are nice. In other dates the top 2% might be little better than what is considered chBU and few will be true Gem. Somewhere between about 0.15 and 1.75% of a date will be Gem.

 

I would have to perform the calculations, but seems to me that even at 0.15%, that you and I aren't in much disagreement on your "gems" and my estimates for (PCGS) MS-66. As I told you, it is a statistical rounding error.If the number happens to be slightly but still minimally higher, then the numbers will meet or even exceed the estimates I gave you.

 

I never disagreed that these coins are hard to find in circulation, only that they aren't hard to buy which is what matters to most collectors.

 

The point I was making is that there isn't any reason to believe that there is anything particularly unusual about their scarcity.

 

The other point is that if your criteria is (much) stricter than the TPG, you are in the minority and it doesn't impact how others look at them. For most, PCGS (and maybe NGC) standards are good enough and what you use isn't going to change how most choose to collect them.

 

The only exception I make to this comment is if the Ike Group applies your standards and then these standards predominate as they do with EAC.

[19Lyds]

No dollar coin will circulate, no coin will circulate, if banks don't distribute them. This is the problem now and it was in 1971.

 

The reason dollar coins do not circulate is due to the reason provided in this forum and on PCGS in the past, including 19Lyds in the post you quoted. The public rejects dollar coins because the alternatives are more convenient, not because the banks fail to promote them. If the Ike was still issued today and no paper dollar was available, there is still no reason to believe it would be widely used. Hardly anyone would be bothered to carry around multiples of such a large coin with such minimal purchasing power. They would use electronic payments almost exclusively.

 

I don't know what you expect of banks with these or any other coins. It isn't the role of banks to promote collecting. Coins are distributed because of public demand and I presume primarily by business to provide consumers change. This is probably 95% of it at least.

 

Since their are billions of Ikes and its successors in vaults because the public returned them or never wanted them, why exactly would any bank give them to any customer who never asked for it?

This is so full of so many untruths its nearly laughable.

 

Circulation of coins comes from their being used as in "given in change". When I buy a soda for $1.19, the merchant doesn't send me down to the bank to get my change. The merchant gives me the change out of his cash register.

 

I've NEVER been known to go to a "bank" and ask for "change". "Change ALWAYS comes from local merchants after purchasing a product and paying with "cash".

 

If the Merchants do not order 1 dollar coins then the "Banks" will not order them from the Feds which receive them, as an order, from the US Mint. If "merchants" are not using them to make change then banks will not order them since "merchants" get their change from banks.

 

I have yet to meet a person, pother than some snobby coin dealers, that weren't THRILLED to receive a dollar coin and IMO the ONLY thing holding up the actual circulation of dollar coins is the fact that the dollar bill still exists.

 

I'm also of the opinion that as long as it spends as legal tender, the public would accept pooka shells emblazoned with UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, LIBERTY, the Motto and some dead presidents portrait on it, as change! Jeez! There are an untold number of "Americans" out there that think Eisenhower is on the Dime! But I digress.

 

Other, more progressive countries, eliminated the 1 and 2 dollar bills YEARS AGO when they introduced 1 and 2 dollar coins with absolutely no adverse affects. Either to the merchants or the consumers.

 

Constantly droning on that if the banks won't order them then the public won't use them or that the public "rejects" dollar coins is just worthless fodder which if folks truly understood HOW the coins ended up in the cash register they receive their change from then they'd understand why dollar coins are not used.

 

Merchants are UNWILLING to change unless there is no alternative. BANKS respond to MERCHANTS needs, not the general public.

 

 

 

 

[e1cnr]

Someday people will see just how scarce nice attractive Ikes are and they will then discover just how elusive they are.

 

Let's get down to specifics. What quality on the TPG scale do you have in mind?

 

Is it MS-67? If so, these are all "conditional rarities" and they are "scarce" or "rare" by definition.

 

Is it MS-66? if so, I have already provided data which shows that:

 

1) By current census counts, Ikes are more available than many of the most common classics in this grade. I agree that they are likely scarcer than many of these coins in grade, but neither of us actually know how many because we do not know the actual grade distribution of either.

 

2) Based upon what is known from collecting elsewhere, most of these probably are at most an R-1 on the Judd scale with over 1250 actual survivors.

 

Do you agree or disagree with these? If you disagree, then what is the basis for it and what are your estimates?

 

If you consider my estimates "directionally accurate", then why do consider these coins remotely scarce? Most of these coins can be bought easily in this grade even if the census never increases at all, as is true of practically any other coin.

 

Or lastly, are you not directly comparing the scarcity of Ikes to other series in the same grade? For example, do you consider an NGC or PCGS MS-66 as your MS-65 to which you then compare to an MS-66 in another series?

 

I will add comments on pricing once you provide your reply.

 

You almost write like you feel populations are a random sampling.

 

Could you explain why there are over 10 times as many 1909-S VDB cents certified than 1912 Philadelphia cents? I look at mintage numbers and it looks like there were 150 times as many 1912 cents produced (which has me confused with your logic).

 

 

[World Colonial]

I didn't explain it well.

 

Here is what I meant.

 

Business request coins from banks. I said this was probably 95% of it. The rest I presume is primarily collectors who are searching rolls and yes, a few consumers ask for coins at banks but it is immaterial.

 

Business give change to consumers when they buy something.

 

On the dollar coin, I was stating that today, even if business order it, it isn't going to make any difference whatsoever. They can give it out as change all they want and consumers still aren't going to use it if they don't want to.

 

The coins do circulate somewhat in Canada but I don't know how much. Regardless, banks or the government can't force consumers to use something they don't want as long as another alternative (electronic payments) is available. I almost never use any coins at all because I don't need to. If the US ever follows these "progressive" countries and eliminates the dollar bill, I still won't use dollar coins any more than I have to because it is inconvenient to carry and has such minimal value. Many others will but many still will not because there is little need to use any change at all.

 

Is this clear enough for you now? Or perhaps you still find it "laughable"?

[World Colonial]

You almost write like you feel populations are a random sampling.

 

Could you explain why there are over 10 times as many 1909-S VDB cents certified than 1912 Philadelphia cents? I look at mintage numbers and it looks like there were 150 times as many 1912 cents produced (which has me confused with your logic).

 

 

The answer to your question is easy. In your example, I attribute it primarily due to the value of the 1909-S VDB. The difference in the census counts is the result of "positive selection bias".

 

I don't have any idea how many equivalently graded 1912 cents exist but proportionately, many fewer were saved and those that still remain aren't worth grading in most grades. You can also see this in the difference in the census counts between RD, RB and BN specimens across the Lincoln series. From my recollection, the RD are frequently (always?) have larger counts in better grades, but I presume RB and BN are actually more common.

 

I never said that the existence of any coin in a particular grade was only random, what I am saying is that any claim for a level of scarcity primarily based upon what they see is not statistically supported in the context being made in this thread for coins in an "elite" grade. The sample sizes are not large enough and the coins they look at are not statistically random (since every coin is not available for inspection).

 

Offhand, here are some factors that I consider relevant to the census counts for Ikes:

 

Original mintage (+), original strike quality (-), propensity to be preserved (-), availability in mint sets (+), (potential) hoards (+), current market value (+)

 

Considering factors such as these which no one actualy knows how it impacts survivors in any grade is what I term statistical rounding errors between my estimates and those of many others. I don't believe the actual differences are that great, though depending upon the coin, they may be meaningful to some who collect them. In the case of the Ike, I generally believe the difference will be financially irrelevant.

 

[e1cnr]

They circulate when their is a purpose for them. Ikes have been used in slot machines, as $1 casino chips, on bank giveaways. SBAs have been used in circulation in some South American countries. I agree with you that unless needed for change or a specific use, their will be little circulation. If the $1 bill becomes discontinued, there will be demand for the small dollar coins. Vending machines have added 'bill changers' and some have 'debit or credit' cards for higher valued items, so not needed now. Laundromats may need them for washing/drying as prices increase.

 

This has nothing to do with how many GEM 1971 or 1972 Philadelphia IKES are undiscovered. They were not in mint sets, they were poorly made, there are not many unsearched bags sitting in banks, and collecting rolls of clads was not in vogue in early 70's (when uncirculated silver coin rolls were still readily available).

 

To suggest less than 5% GEMS have been graded seems low, unless the standards change in the future.

[World Colonial]

They circulate when their is a purpose for them. Ikes have been used in slot machines, as $1 casino chips, on bank giveaways. SBAs have been used in circulation in some South American countries. I agree with you that unless needed for change or a specific use, their will be little circulation. If the $1 bill becomes discontinued, there will be demand for the small dollar coins. Vending machines have added 'bill changers' and some have 'debit or credit' cards for higher valued items, so not needed now. Laundromats may need them for washing/drying as prices increase.

 

This has nothing to do with how many GEM 1971 or 1972 Philadelphia IKES are undiscovered. They were not in mint sets, they were poorly made, there are not many unsearched bags sitting in banks, and collecting rolls of clads was not in vogue in early 70's (when uncirculated silver coin rolls were still readily available).

 

To suggest less than 5% GEMS have been graded seems low, unless the standards change in the future.

 

The comments in your first aragraph has little to do with my estimates of survivors in a grade like MS-66. Given the other reply I received, I never should have included this at all.

 

I don't know why think I claimed only 5% of gems have been graded. I never implied or stated it.

 

In this thread, I have used MS-66 as my proxy because "conditional rarities"

(MS-67 for most Ike date/MM combinations) are "rare" as they are for any other coin. I use the "undergrade" because its the "best" coin widely available and at a reasonable cost for a relatively large number of collectors.

 

Once again, my "guestimate" for most issues (not all of them) is a Judd R-1 (1250+). The 1971, 1973, and1974 Philadelphia I don't believe have these numbers. The 1971 I estimate as a high R-3 (range is 201-500). The PCGS count today is 57. The 1973 and 1974 I think are a low R-3 (closer to 500) or a high R-2 (somewhat over 501 but less than 1250).

 

For the 1972, my estimate is for MS-65 because MS-66 is the "top pop" and its evident these coins are scarce in this grade given the prices and the number who collect the series. I think the Type 1 and 3 are probably R-2 while the Type 2 is probably an R-4 (range is 76-200).

 

The rest such as the "D" mints and the 1977 and 1978, these I consider likely or easily an R-1. As one example, the 1972-D has a current PCGS count of 398, so I don't see that 1250 or more is an excessive estimate. The last sale on Heritage not CAC was for $123 late last year. I don't believe this price is high enough to lead to "positive selection bias". because if it is, then this apply to numerous other classics which are known to be common in the same price range but with approximately equal census counts today.

[cladking]

The sample sizes are not large enough and the coins they look at are not statistically random (since every coin is not available for inspection).

 

Oh, but they are random. This is the whole reason that I did sample coins; to know how tough they are in high grade. You don't need extremely large numbers of coins to sample because this is the point of sampling. You merely need a few coins from widely disparate places and sources.

 

Of course it's entirely possible that I missed a primary source such as banks in Reno but mostly this just didn't matter because the coins in which I was primarily interested went straight into circulation. Every single person in Reno wouuld have sat by as the Gem '82-P quarters went into circulation so it didn't matter I missed sampling these (probably).

 

It's true I dropped the ball on Ike sampling quite a bit but this was because Gems were so tough I didn't even know they existed at all until the late-'70's. Then I didn't have access to enough rolls to do proper sampling any longer. Keep in mind though that I never have found a true Gem Ike in a roll and I have sampled mint sets.

 

The difference here is that my sampling of Ike rolls is statistically insignificant because I've found no Gems. Many Ike rolls and bags were saved so even a low incidence could mean a largew number. But large numbers of other moderns were not saved and most of these were random as to quality. Some coins virtually don't exist as Gems except in mint sets because the incidence is so low and the number of rolls so small that even a single example is improbable. Some of these that don't exist in rolls are tough in mint sets as well.

 

Stick with me here.

 

If a coin like a '71 clad dime is very very tough even though most clad dimes are common in Gem then how tough are Ikes that are very very tough in all dates? Coins like the '76 type I Ike come awful. 80% would charitably be described as MS-60. Most of the rest are MS-60. What kind of a massmarket could exist for this coin which survives in numbers like 150,000 for a nice pleasing Unc and much smaller for grades like chBU or Gem-like. People collect Morgan Dollars in Unc. Most Morgans looked pretty good right off the press. Ikes didn't and the passage of time has not improved them nor made them more numerous. The range in quality between typical and Gem is far wider in moderns and a larger percentage occupy the low end of the range. Even if this didn't make collectors more quality conscious the fact is collectors are more quality conscious than in the past and this is partly the effect of TPG's. It's also an artefact of mass communications; the net.

 

There's no certainty that these coins will ever be collected by the masses. But future collectors will not have the hatred for clad that the current generation has. Future collectors will be those who collected states clad quarters even as dealers and collectors told them they were junk. There's no real doubt that so long as the hobby survives that someday clads will be popular. Ike's day will come.

[World Colonial]

Oh, but they are random. This is the whole reason that I did sample coins; to know how tough they are in high grade. You don't need extremely large numbers of coins to sample because this is the point of sampling. You merely need a few coins from widely disparate places and sources.

 

Of course it's entirely possible that I missed a primary source such as banks in Reno but mostly this just didn't matter because the coins in which I was primarily interested went straight into circulation. Every single person in Reno wouuld have sat by as the Gem '82-P quarters went into circulation so it didn't matter I missed sampling these (probably).

 

The difference here is that my sampling of Ike rolls is statistically insignificant because I've found no Gems. Many Ike rolls and bags were saved so even a low incidence could mean a largew number. But large numbers of other moderns were not saved and most of these were random as to quality. Some coins virtually don't exist as Gems except in mint sets because the incidence is so low and the number of rolls so small that even a single example is improbable. Some of these that don't exist in rolls are tough in mint sets as well.

 

Let me clarify my prior comments to address your extract.

 

Your sampling is not statistically random in the sense that all coins are equally likely to be included in the sample. You have admitted this yourself.

 

Also, you still have not told me whether you agree or do not agree with my "guesstimates". So I really don't know whether we have an actual difference of opinion.

 

The point I was making on statistical accuracy is that if you want to get a real idea of how many likely survivors exist in MS-66, you will have to define your sample size using a very high confidence level, precision and tolerable error. I am speaking off memory here on statistical methods, so if I am not using it properly, someone can correct me.

 

My recollection is that to statistically state that MS-66 for a particular date/MM combination is (as an example only) 300 versus 400 or 500 when the mintage is so large will require a very large sample size. Haven't looked at them in a long time but you can confirm this for yourself by looking at a sample size table. The one I recall was published by the FDIC but it could have been someone else.

 

I don't claim that my "guesstimates" have any confidence level. That is why I call them "guesstimates". I accept your experience and of others to a point, but that is all. I listed some of the factors I believe are relevant a few posts ago but I don't actualy know which ones are most important for Ikes.

 

My opinion is that the current market value is generally (that is, excluding the most expensive) the primary reason the census counts are not (substantially) higher.

 

In writing these posts today and yesterday, I have been trying to focus on the supply.

 

The next consideration is to compare these estimates versus other coins which in my opinion are post 1933 classics. I don't believe these coins are actually that scarce compared to many (notice I did not say all) of these coins but I can comment on that later.

 

Third, it will be to compare the prices of coins which are or are likely approximately equally scarce and available. I also don't believe these coins are as underpriced as you apparently do but if you are anyone else has data to demonstrate otherwise, I am open to hear it.

 

The combination of these three factors, doesn't address future demand where I know we have a difference of opinion. But still seems to me this is the best indication of whether there is any reason to even believe that the current Ike price level is lower than it "should be".

[19Lyds]

I didn't explain it well.

 

Here is what I meant.

 

Business request coins from banks. I said this was probably 95% of it. The rest I presume is primarily collectors who are searching rolls and yes, a few consumers ask for coins at banks but it is immaterial.

 

Business give change to consumers when they buy something.

 

On the dollar coin, I was stating that today, even if business order it, it isn't going to make any difference whatsoever. They can give it out as change all they want and consumers still aren't going to use it if they don't want to.

 

The coins do circulate somewhat in Canada but I don't know how much. Regardless, banks or the government can't force consumers to use something they don't want as long as another alternative (electronic payments) is available. I almost never use any coins at all because I don't need to. If the US ever follows these "progressive" countries and eliminates the dollar bill, I still won't use dollar coins any more than I have to because it is inconvenient to carry and has such minimal value. Many others will but many still will not because there is little need to use any change at all.

 

Is this clear enough for you now? Or perhaps you still find it "laughable"?

Yes. I find the prophylactic encased replies to be laughable for a couple of reasons:

 

1. There are many areas within this country that are not "metropolitan" areas and many businesses still do not use electronic forms of payment. The fact that YOU have no need for cash doesn't mean that a good portion of us commoners don't need it. Just yesterday I was checking my pocket for cash since I wanted to buy some lunch.

 

2. If YOU do not use cash then I hardly see where the government or even a bank could "force" you into using a coin?

 

3. The one pound and two pound coins circulate very well and quite heavily in Great Britain. Heck, they even use 50 penny pieces on a regular basis! I can only presume that since the "one", whether its a dollar or a pound or a euro, is a base unit, that the coins circulate quite well in Canada and any other country that has eliminated the paper equivalent.

 

4. The ENTIRE basis of circulating coinage is that when the coins are given as "change" then they are spent. Only to end up in a cash drawer then given out as change and then spent again. To imply that a customer who receives dollar coins as change in a transaction will not "use" that change is laughable. We "spend" what we are given to spend. Yes, many people accumulate spare "change". I do. I have a bag of it that I dropped several cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters into just yesterday! Does this mean that I don't care for change and don't use change? Hardly.

 

5. Retail business, be it big or small, is the backbone of the countries economy. They are the "distributors" of money. Each time I spend a $20 bill, I get change (i.e. coins and bills) in return. Better yet, each time I use my "debit" card, I am asked if I want "money" in addition to the transaction.

Retail business can supply me with all my cash or coinage needs without ever going to bank.

 

The dollar coins failure has nothing to do with the banking industry and has everything to do with retail business.

 

The dollar coins failure has nothing to do with its design and has everything to do with retail business. How many people even know what the symbols on the reverse of a dollar bill depict? Not many because ....... nobody cares! As long as its spendable, why should they?

 

As for being "forced" into using something that nobody wants? There is no "forcing" if the dollar bill is eliminated. Its simply the elimination of something which costs a lot of money to continue to use. Why should the government have to bear the cost of doing business?

 

This entire diatribe about dollar coins is so convoluted with inept and ignorant opinions bolstered by statistical speculation is just baloney. Eliminate the dollar bill and the coins will be used. It is that simple.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

20 dollar bills are just so easy to carry along in my wallet vs 20 Ikes or Susan B's or the gold one I can't spell. Inflation fights against smaller denominations. Half cents can tell us about it.

 

Combined maybe with the lack of silver in coins and you have less use for coins.

 

Oh yeah, I am not wealthy and live in the cutting edge metropolis of St Louis. It has been weeks since I had a coin in my pocket. No doubt in a couple weeks I will come into some bills for some reason and then for the next couple weeks I will have coins again in my pocket for a few weeks. No dollars or half dollars though.