GoldFinger1969

Goldman Sachs ups year-end price target for gold to $2,700.    

If that happens, we'll obviously have to base and retrench for a while as that is a very large move for gold.  But this thread's prediction might be a bit too conservative ($3,000 by 2030) though my longer-term $5,000 by 2035 would be more likely.

Again...this is all supply and demand, folks.  The stars are aligning for gold like they were in the 1970's.  Even the 2000's rise was more a case of gold just being dirt cheap after basing for 20 years than both supply & demand moving into positive positions.  Gold wasn't as cheap when this move started because we didn't have a 20-year basing though we did have a near-50% decline again.

$2,424 up $50 today on COMEX.    

There is just a persistent bid underneath the metal.  It goes up regardless of what happens to stocks, bonds, or Fed talk.  

Premiums in Singapore relative to 2011 and 2012 are 1-2% and not 7-8% -- an indication this is not panic buying.  Also, American Eagle coin sales are under 20,000 a month as opposed to 75,000 a month at past peaks.

On 4/12/2024 at 8:16 AM, ldhair said:

I agree with that. 

Also, if it is still being minted today.  Nickels and Quarters are modern; Double Eagles and Silver/Ike Dollars are not. 

BTW, the average price paid per coin was approximately $755.  This was about double the average market price for gold for 1996, so the premium paid was about 100% by Gillio's buyers. 

On 4/8/2024 at 2:09 PM, zadok said:

...no, im talking bout bank rolls that collectors ordered or got from their local banks each year not assembled coin rolls from mint sets...example, recent local estate...gentleman died like 20 years ago, his children just got around to selling his coin collection last year through several sessions of auctions due to volume of coins, 42,000 pocket change in coffee cans plus all his whitman blue trifolds n 3000-4000 mint sets n over 2000 bank rolls of nickels, dimes, quarters n halves...he started buying rolls soon after the big rush on 1950-D nickels, his bank rolls ran from 1952-1978 when he quit buying rolls...i attended every auction session n bought just about everything i wanted, silver sold for silver n post 64 sold for face, none of the local collectors wanted rolls of anything...a few came to me n wanted to know if i wanted to sell individual coins or could they go thru the rolls...nada...i wholesaled out the entire lot including the 10,000 circ wheat pennies i had to buy as a lot to get a couple of linc bank rolls i wanted...my one collector son wanted all the 63-64 wash qrts to check for varieties, i personally did not check any of the coins....

The FACE VALUE of that estate of coins must have been several hundred thousand dollars....market value anywhere from 3-20x as much, huh ?  

Hard to believe....you'd never see a 20-year wait on something like that in the NYC area....but I guess Middle America is different.

On 4/8/2024 at 8:57 AM, cladking said:

Even if we could find hundreds or thousands of BU roll collectors it would have little impact on the availability of chBU's of most dates.  But the rolls and collectors aren't out there or they'd be visible.  

But their prices AREN'T that high and folks like Zadok are saying they buy hundreds or even THOUSANDS of these coins, solo or in sets, without much difficulty.

You don't need too many people collecting in bulk to have lots of supply.  If only a few hundred thousand Americans collected a few dozen or so sets, that's alot of potential supply, right ?  

I usually don't mind off-topic stuff or segues into other coins....but this whole debate involves coins that haven't ever been hot which is the purpose of this thread !! 

What coins and conditions are we talking about, Roy ?  Any pics ?

On 4/9/2024 at 2:32 PM, zadok said:

...besides the legit aspect, would u actually want anyone to even know bout it n that u had it...n would u trust our govt to not try n find a way to take it away from u, their track record is very tarnished...there r several coins out there that r not reflected in any archives, books or commentaries n will most likely remain that way...i have seen a couple that r not supposed to exist n respect the owners desires....

Well, you know how I feel about the confiscation of the 1933 DE's but I've seen nothing abut the 1849 and some others being a target by the U.S. government.   There was some Treasury dunce talking about how the Liberty Nickel's should be seized...but that was some underling in the 1950's.

I maintain that just as FDR's EO on gold confiscation was eventually repealed, the seizing of the 1933's -- and any other coins with a target on their backs -- will also be repealed. 

On 4/7/2024 at 8:23 PM, zadok said:

...if u owned this coin today, would u publicize ur ownership?...think bout it....

Well...if you are saying it is illegal like the 1933 DE, yeah, I get your point.

The limited information I have seen says that any and all 1849's are legit.  Just that apparently only 1 survived. 

One thing I saw posted and I agree 100%:  if you complain about "gradeflation" you can't be upset with CAC...and now I would add CACG. 

On 4/9/2024 at 9:17 AM, Roy Winters said:

wow that went down a dark hole. LOL  thank you all for your input, as far as why, cause i want to.  

 

Roy, they're your coins, absolutely.  However....do you think it is financially WORTHWHILE to do so -- are the coins holding numismatic value or are they just common bullion with a minor premium ? 

You still might want them certified/protected if they have sentimental value, but if they are common gold coins in AU or EF condition, might not be worth it.  Just be aware.  

What coins are we talking about ?  Any pics ?

On 4/7/2024 at 4:31 AM, murder69 said:

What's the big negative aspect of every once and a while someone posts some really cool coin on any of the boards and anyone who see it can buy it? 

Nothing...if it's posted correctly and in the right section.  We're not trying to rain on your enthusiasm, and you may have good intentions (or not !)....but there is a procedure for threads like yours.

If we were to disregard those procedures, it wouldn't just be your thread/post that goes astray....we'd have dozens more in no time. 

Wells Fargo Hoard, Initial Selling Prices:  Found an old article that mentioned that the MS-65's sold for about $1,200....the 66's for $3,000 and the 67's for $10,000. That was with gold trading $280-$380 from 1996-2001. The premiums were HUGE. 

Ironically, buying the better coin didn't work out this time as more and more 67's hit the market and the premium collapsed even as gold went up 6-fold since. 65 owners have doubled their $$$.....66's are about even.  But the 67's are down 30-40% ! 

Interesting to see how it played out over many decades and with gold rising 6-fold over that period of time.

19,900 vs. 10,000 Coins:  It appears that it was just sloppy writing causing the confusion on the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard and the grading events.

It was apparently NOT the case that every single coin in the WF Hoard was graded.....there were 19,900 coins in total apparently, but only about half (10,000 or so) got certified.  The other coins must have been circulated or so bag marked that even if they got graded it would be low-60's and not worth doing from a financial POV, even with the WF pedigree.

On 4/6/2024 at 9:05 AM, murder69 said:

Make offer Icon Provided if you Feel Price is too High

Well, knock off 30% and make an offer and report back. 

The use of paper currency use ILLEGAL in the territory/state of California made the circulation of gold coins -- including SanFran-struck DEs -- much more widespread on the West Coast.  That's a continual theme that comes across my readings from 1850-1870.  Started to decline during 1870-1900 but not sure of extent.

1849 Double Eagle:  It's generally said that there is only 1 survivor (might be another 2-3 struck but destroyed)....it's in the Smithsonsian.

But Bower's Red Book says there was talk of another 1849 DE struck for Treasury Secretary William Meredith (d. 1873)...his estate handing it down to Philly dealer William Nagy, who told Breen in the 1950's that it was in a private collection. 

I know Breen's reputation for hyperbole and outright falsehoods but I was wondering if anybody has read or heard of anything regarding the possibility of a 2nd coin being struck.  You would think that with over 70 years since the story came out -- and over 175 since it was last seen -- that it would have come public by now. 

The references to Meredith and Nagy in the Bowers Red Book are the only ones I have come across.  And it IS 20 years old, so maybe stuff has come out to debunk this since.  But I haven't seen it. 

On 4/3/2024 at 12:49 PM, RWB said:

Is he telling facts that he knows, or simply spinning a story abut some assumed "stealthy hoard?"

His price changes can be checked for reality, but not his "reasons" for them....if he has any.

I guess it's POSSIBLE that the increase in supply was just a coincidence of a bunch of MCMVII HR holders deciding to sell that month.

If it persists, it could mean elderly people passing on and/or estates being liquidated.

Some coin-centered themes were more focused on the coin(s) in TV shows, like the famous Hawaii 5-O episode with the Liberty Nickel.

On 4/3/2024 at 9:09 AM, zadok said:

...the good the bad n the ugly....

I just started to get into early Clint Eastwood stuff. 

Liberty is not struck as sharply as on the SanFran coin.  Ditto the reverse with the Eagle looking much different.

This coin is one step above someone using Crayons. 

On 4/4/2024 at 12:04 AM, RWB said:

Might also be something made by a colorado counterfeiter. It produced altered ASEs in the past, so why not again?

Aren't his clearly identified as such though ?

On 4/2/2024 at 3:33 PM, ldhair said:

I don't see the 95-W as rare but I feel it is the key date to the series. This is one of those coins that many will always call rare.  

What I don't get was...weren't there by 1995 lots of ASE collectors, buying at least 1 each year ?  So why after 9 years (1986-94) would they not make it available solo ?

On 4/2/2024 at 6:42 PM, zadok said:

...revisit ur thoughts after another thousand posts or so n after u have been subjected to some of the bs u will read here...until then ill just overlook the above....

We have lots of useless posts ("Hi, I found this coin in my washing machine, can you tell me if it's worth $10,000 ?" ) but we also have some pretty smart guys here and lots of VERY useful threads. 

Anybody who obtained SPECIFIC data on their particular coins or coin types would do well to make sure they saved the information on the various threads here.  You have stuff here you can't get in other forums, books, periodicals, etc.