GoldFinger1969

On 4/27/2024 at 11:22 PM, zadok said:

...respectfully disagree...i doubt it has exceeded 40% possibly 50% but doubtful...

Worth gettiing graded, or coins that are going to be left raw since they are not in a high-enough condition to merit certification ?

2009 MMIX Ultra High Relief:  RCTV was running a promo on the 2009 UHR Saint-Gaudens replica and emphasizing the dual planchet thickness.  They also used the phrase "renaissance of American coinage."

Not sure if it is a new or dated infomercial but they could probably just "remove" the old price logos if it ran a long time ago.  With gold just under $2,400 old prices would be way too stale.  

Nonetheless....the asking price of $4,700 for an MS-70 was WAY too high.  Recent sales prices are in the $2,800 range; even the MS-70PL designation would run you UNDER $3,500.  So you are paying a rich premium for their telling of a good story, most of which is in any good book about the MCMVII UHR.

I'm glad these infomercials have nice information; if they get people into the hobby or an appreciation for our coin heritage, overpaying once or twice isn't the worst thing in the world.  I just wish the prices being advertised were a bit closer to the market.

On 4/27/2024 at 8:20 AM, World Colonial said:

No, I don't think the majority of "grade worthy" coins have been submitted, even from those that are financially worth submitting.  It varies by series and coin since some coins and series are far more likely to be submitted due to the probability of fakes and buyer preference.

I don't doubt that there is still (lots of) stuff out there that is grade-worthy and worth nice $$$....VKurt has intimated as much with all his auctions finds....Sandon and Zadok, too....but could top-pop, census-altering volumes STILL be out there...preserved pristinely....in high-grade and/or mint condition....by average folks...who know NOTHING about coins and/or PRESERVING coins... .the SAME people who think wiping a coin with a towel keeps it CLEAN and in GOOD condition ???!!! 

I could see top-half or top-quarter condition hoards coming out....but top-pop stuff ?  

On 4/27/2024 at 8:20 AM, World Colonial said:

It's a higher proportion for what you buy, but you don't buy the coins even most buyers spending around the same amount do.  Definitely higher for pre-1933 US gold, Morgan dollars, and classic commemoratives.  Still, there may be more 1881-S Morgan dollars out of a holder than in one, just not in the highest grades.

That I definitely agree with as people may have specific MCMVII HR's inherited from parents who had no other interest in coins (remember the response of an SSCA buyer to QDB's invitation to get more coins), more general Saints (held as a form of gold if not for numismatic purposes), and ditto Morgans and other gold/silver coins serving a dual bullion-numismatic purpose (mostly bullion if the holders are older).

On 4/27/2024 at 8:20 AM, World Colonial said:

Look at the TPG counts and estimates in Coin Facts. You can also compare the outdated Coin Facts commentary to the estimates or itemized census.  Right on the same page, it's not unusual to see where (apparently) "new" coins previously not known were "discovered".

But even for the stuff that I track (see above)....hasn't the RATE OF INCREASE slowed ? 

Yes, there are new submittances...new hoards....new SDB finds...new oveseas finds (i.e., Fairmont)....but it can't approximate what came out when the TPGs first came out during the heavy period of 1986-2006, the first 20 years, can it ?  In 2 years, it'll be another 20 years (40 years total since the TPGs came out) and I can't see the split for most coins being greater than 70% the first 20 years....30% the last 20 years...if not closer to 80/20 or even 90/10.

On 4/26/2024 at 8:20 PM, World Colonial said:

As I wrote in my earlier post, if the collector base is actually as large as some of the numbers stated here, we'd be running into them regularly. 

We'd see more of them posting online, too. 

On 3/9/2024 at 8:57 AM, Zebo said:

Looks like an interesting book. Will wait for the review.

Ben Bernanke wrote one, it's online.  I highlighted some thoughts in the RWB Saints Thread. 

Gold Standard, pre- and post-WW I:   Roger's book talks about gold flows, the gold (exchange) standard, and central bank happenings. 

Ben Bernanke -- before he became Fed Chairman -- was a prolific researcher and author and wrote a review of Barry Eichengreen's Golden Fetters book about the gold policies of the 1920's and 1930's.  Here he talks about what Eichengreen discusses as a key overlooked difference in global monetary policies before and after World War I:

"With respect to the differences between the classical and interwar gold standards, Eichengreen emphasizes the twin themes of credibility and cooperation. He argues that, in the classical period, the commitment of major central banks to maintain the gold value of their currencies was highly credible. This credibility reflected less the status or behavior of central banks themselves than it did the particular political equilibrium (as well as the state of economic understanding) that prevailed at the time. Because of weak labor movements and a generally poor appreciation by the public of the links between monetary policy and the real economy, in the latter part of the nineteenth century there was little political pressure on central banks to manipulate the exchange rate in order to maintain high levels of output and employment.

Further, in the prewar period it was widely expected that, in the event of an exchange rate crisis, the major central banks would cooperate to protect the established parities. When the Baring crisis of 1890 threatened the pound, for example, the Bank of England received loans (and promises of as much support as was needed) from the Bank of France and the Bank of Russia. This cooperation arose from the close relations that existed among central banks and the maintained view of central bankers that they all had a stake in the preservation of the international system. Eichengreen argues that the intrinsic credibility of central banks’ commitment to the gold standard, supplemented by the presumption of cooperation among central banks, implied that the bulk of speculation during the classical period would be stabilizing rather than destabilizing. For example, if a currency slipped beneath its official value, a speculative capital inflow would ensue in anticipation of a supporting action by the central bank. The possibility that the currency might instead be devalued (which, if widely accepted, would lead to destabilizing capital outflows) was usually given little weight.

In contrast, according to Eichengreen, levels of credibility and cooperation were much lower under the interwar gold standard. First, domestic political equilibria were sharply changed by the war and the progressive social movements of the early twentieth century. In order to buy labor peace during the war, many governments greatly expanded the rights of workers to participate in the political process and to unionize. Extension of the franchise both to nonproperty-owners and to women sharply changed the compositions of legislatures and legislators’ constituencies. This democratization, coupled with a better understanding of the links between central bank actions and domestic economic activity, eliminated the presumption that external stability would always take precedence over internal stability as a goal for monetary policy. The political changes also led to distributional struggles among the classes, which increased uncertainty about fiscal policy and in particular raised the spectre of persistent deficits that might have to be monetized. In short, whatever the general desirability of post-World War I political changes, they increased the probability that the central bank would be forced to sacrifice defense of the exchange rate in order to achieve domestic output and employment objectives, or in order to finance the government’s deficit. 

Domestic political changes during the interwar period were matched by equally large changes in the international sphere. In the classical period, as we have said, a central bank facing an exchange rate crisis could have counted on substantial assistance from other central banks, either through loans or through coordination of discount rates. But this cooperation and mutual assistance withered in the postwar era of bad feeling, in which a variety of disputes, notably over the payment of reparations and the repayment of war debts, soured international relations at all levels. The potential for international cooperation was also reduced by the inexperience and inward-looking propensities of the Federal Reserve, which - reflecting America’s postwar economic and political dominance - would have been the obvious institution to take over the Bank of England’s mantle as the ‘conductor of the international orchestra’. 

Because of reduced credibility and cooperation in the interwar period, the presumption that central banks would always be able to defend the parity was greatly weakened in the interwar period.  Speculation therefore became destabilizing, in that a weakening of a currency or a loss of reserves now prompted capital outflows rather than inflows. The consequences of this change in speculative behavior became clearest in the financial crises of 1931, in which central banks were forced either to abandon gold or to adopt extremely deflationary policies in order to defend the parity."

On 4/26/2024 at 12:25 AM, zadok said:

...wasnt much else there to hoard, wine n gold...define ur use of the word "french", people or govt or both n then or now or both?....

I don't see articles in the papers of the day talking about the citizens of the UK, Switzerland, Germany, etc.....engaging in the hoarding of gold and gold coins to the extent that the French did.  Clearly, a cultural thing.

Europe overall much more into gold coins than here in the States.   French farmers, middle class, and professional class (doctors, lawyers, small businessmen) leading the charge.

Not sure why...could go back to Napoleon.  No history of devestating wars that I am aware of or hyperinflations in the 1800's.  WWI did have an impact on the accumulation tendencies of the 1920's and 1930's but not sure about the herd instinct before then.

On 4/26/2024 at 12:25 AM, zadok said:

...wasnt much else there to hoard, wine n gold...define ur use of the word "french", people or govt or both n then or now or both?....

People....I clarified above.  The French Central Bank also had big increases in reserves but eventually they stopped releasing gold as they realized it wasn't being used, just hoarded.

Back to Roosters and the French .....doing some original article reading and the amount of gold hoarding by the French populace in the late-1920's/early-1930's was astounding. 

I've noted here the rise in gold reserves by the U.S. (big) and France (huge) as nations in the 1920's.  Individually, the French seemed more in a hoarding mode than citizens of the UK, Germany, Switzerland, and other countries.

Without their Roosters being available, they went to the other birds:  the Eagles and Double Eagles. 

On 4/25/2024 at 1:52 PM, zadok said:

...escaped is an accurate description, but even columbia has entrance level standards....

Er....I'm not so sure about that. 

On 4/25/2024 at 12:54 PM, VKurtB said:

Of coins that spent nearly their entire existence waiting to be melted into Ft. Knox bars? Hardly. If the Treasury Department had that little respect for them, why should I? My collecting preference is for unusually nice coins of types that people actually used. Except for the difference in inherent value, St. Gaudens $20 gold coins were the Presidential or Innovation Dollars of their era. Unloved, largely unknown, and mostly unused. 

Foreigners overseas loved them....tons shipped to Europe from 1930-32.....Treasury melted them because of the orders from the dunces at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Going off the gold standard did NOT mean having to confiscate and/or melt gold coins.  Letters to the editor to The Times notably said that in 1933 and 1934.

On 4/25/2024 at 10:24 AM, Henri Charriere said:

...more like lucy and esther tap-dancing their way through a grape-filled mosh pit.

Aunt Esther ?

You old heathen !!!  

On 4/24/2024 at 3:01 PM, VKurtB said:

But the St. Gaudens worship lives on forever. 

Why shouldn't it ?  Even if you dislike gold, can't you appreciate the artistry ?  

On 4/24/2024 at 3:43 PM, Cat Bath said:

JA likes shiny coins....Big flipping deal.  I prefer my Saints not look like they spent all day in a McDonald's drive-through lane. 

The premiums to gold content for Saints in 1989 and the late-1990's were really high.  Market grading for them is one reason why the CAC sticker rate is so low.  

On 4/24/2024 at 4:31 PM, zadok said:

...and lynda carter mite still come to ur house with her lasso....

Still can't believe that costume got past the old ABC censors !! 

Saw her on an old episode of "2 1/2 Men" and she STILL looks good past 70 !!! 

I see that Gov.mint is now offering coins from the Fairmont Collection; video here too:

https://www.govmint.com/reserveplus?ad=987PM&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI5IGG2azbhQMV2FtHAR1ZqwIEEAAYASAAEgLyWvD_BwE

$5 and $10 gold pieces; the Eagle sells for just over $2,500 for a 1907P.  Not sure if that is high relative to the market for 1/2 ounce of gold for the final issue of the Liberty Head design.

I also saw a TV commercial for the Fairmont coins yesterday, but missed who sponsored it; could have been Gov.mint or another firm.

On 4/16/2024 at 7:52 PM, World Colonial said:

On the number of collectors? Even aside from definitional differences, it's not possible.

How about any of the Big National Shows -- FUN, Long Beach, ANA, etc. -- having vendor and public attendnace so we can do an apples-to-apples comparison ?

Not looking for exact numbes, just ballpark.

On 4/19/2024 at 10:05 AM, Sandon said:

....and I have read major auctioneers' catalog descriptions that questioned the accuracy of the grades given by grading services.

That's interesting because unless the auctioner is a numismatist like in the days of old (i.e., David Akers) most of the time the auction houses (esp. non-numismatic ones) would rely on the experts, right ?

On 4/20/2024 at 4:50 PM, VKurtB said:

The outcome was that grades nearly never repeated. 

The more important question is what is the variance...how far do the grades swing and WHERE ?

If the grades swing between 64-66 and the real money is at 67, no harm...no foul.  But swings at key inflection points -- shout out to the infamous CU Franklin Gradeflation thread !!  -- are HIGHLY controversial and problematic and the real source of contention.

Nobody gives a damn if a 1924 Saint gets an MS-62 or MS-63 grade.  Even the CAC bean probably doesn't matter much.

What's not realistic about an eagle standing on its legs ?  

On 3/9/2024 at 8:57 AM, Zebo said:

Looks like an interesting book. Will wait for the review.

Haven't read a page yet, just bought a good/new copy because they disappear as they're in limited supply.  Look at what happened with Roger's book -- I can't buy a copy for my uncle. 

Probably summer reading....want to re-read the Whitman Red Books on DEs, FMTM, RWB's Saints book -- all a 2nd time.

Congrats...NOW you can count on spending your riches. 

Seriously, congratulations on a great find.  It appers to be worth a few hundred dollars. 

On 4/21/2024 at 7:00 PM, olympicsos said:

I’ve also heard in some places that there were patterns that had the striding Liberty obverse but the standing eagle reverse. 

I love the Eagle-in-Flight pose better.  It's very majestic. 

As I recall (I'm sure it's in Roger's RoAC books)...Teddy Roosevelt said that the eagle on the Liberty Head DE looked like a grilled squab. 

A guy with 3 posts endorsing the validity of a "find" by a guy with 1 post ? 

I'd await the entry of Sandon & Friends before I started counting my riches....

It's a nickel. 

On 4/18/2024 at 11:07 PM, powermad5000 said:

I have a hard time with the answer to this question being what do we define as a collector? Is not someone who bought a Whitman album when the statehood quarters were released and filled such said album as they were released, now having a full statehood quarter album not a collector even if they have collected no other coins? I think they would be considered a "casual" collector. It would be difficult to pin down a number on these people as they will never submit a single coin to a TPG, nor will they ever attend a coin show, but by technical definition are still a collector. You also have amateur collectors, experienced collectors, and advanced collectors. These would comprise a number that could possibly be pinned down through submissions (but not all collectors submit and I am sure there are still many collectors with extensive collections that are raw).  I would say there is a high percentage of casual collectors which outnumber greatly the amateur, experienced, and advanced combined. To me, it would be impossible to accurately assign a specific number to the posted question.

Excellent points. 

I agree:  we here on these Forums are certainly SERIOUS or ACTIVE collectors.  Most people might fall into the LAPSED or INACTIVE categories.