GoldFinger1969

51 minutes ago, RWB said:

Good to hear that the book is interesting and informative. A future edition - whenever that might happen - will update and enhance as much as possible.

I have some spelling and other printing errors (not that many) which I will send to you in the future.  No rush, unless you are coming out with a 2nd Edition in a few months. 

Nice going, congrats !!  Great post and article.....

1 hour ago, RWB said:

I understand. This is were the data - and it's sparse - goes. When American coin dealers say that "there are no more in Europe" all they are doing is saying "there are no more that I can find or buy at profitable prices." European banks and individuals are much more careful and acquisitive than US folks understand. We've never had an economic failure and worthless currency - even with incompetent political persons in charge. Europeans have had to deal with that for centuries.

I wish there were more data and better quality data - but that's what we have for now. Others might be much better at this than I am, and will find tighter boundaries and reach more satisfying conclusions.

Hey, I would LOVE for you to be right....and it's possible that many of the middle-sized privately-held banks (i.e, the landesbanks in Germany) don't know what the heck they have.  So anything is possible.

It's just that with Europe in ruins in 1945 -- and South America decades behind everyone else in terms of financial disclosure and reporting -- I could easily see stuff not being found until the 1960's and 1970's.  Hell, even in the 1950's just finding enough to eat was still difficult in parts of Europe; they were STILL rebuilding.

But now it's 75 years since WW II ended.  Everything has been audited over the years/decades....computerization and updated reports...very little hidden (besides bad and crony loans  ).  I actually think there's a better possibility of finding some stray bags in South/Central America.  Many banks there are still stuck with 1980's reporting and technology.  And I wouldn't put it past some of those dictators and/or corrupt "elected" officials to have squirreled away a few dozen/hundred bags -- or more !! -- in their own private safes.

Hey, ya never know, right Roger ?  Imagine a bag or two of 1921-S's or 1920's and the thrill it would cause in our community (unless you owned one already !!  ).

Anyway, I'm fascinated and thrilled by your bringing this up, even if it involves loose ends.  Great closing chapters ahead....I'll be finished this weekend.

I got my money's worth with your book.  

1 hour ago, RWB said:

 

Unaccounted for is just that - we don't know. The tables cover all types unless stated otherwise.

OK, make a guess.  Do you think it's possible lots of banks in Europe or South America have thousands (tens of thousands) of bags of these in their vaults ?

I'd love for it to be true, but I just don't see it.

Anyway, on with the book reading.......

And somewhere in the book you had quoted Akers or someone as saying that one of the guys who had the "best contacts" in the European banks couldn't find any more hoards.  The number of Saints your table implies as potentially being out there seems way off.  I have to think that most of the 1907-1916 Saints, plus the 1920's pre-1929 (including the 1920 and 1920-S), virtually all got melted...if not in this country, then in another country or countries with even worse paper records.

Don't get me wrong:  I hope I'm wrong.   I just can't believe almost 40,000,000 Saints are in the U.S., Europe, South/Central America, or anywhere else and nobody has found them.  If they are held by banks, they are being valued at their bullion content whereas they are worth more if they sell them (market value > book value).

That KNOWN MELTED line must be much much higher, no ?

Roger, the table on P. 603:  You have 27 MM (rounded) melted coins from 1921 and 1929-33.  This figure must include the rest of the 1920's production, right ?  1921 + 1929-33 is about 8 MM coins, give or take.  Nowhere near 27 MM.

Also....you list about 43 MM as Potentially Available (not melted) and 39.6 MM as Missing/Unaccounted.

Those numbers seem high....if these coins were not used in U.S. domestic commerce, if they mostly traded as part of international trade settlement, I would think that several hundred thousand bags of coins would have been found by now.

It seems to me that the number melted (which your table didn't include any before 1921) must be much much higher.  That would reduce the 43 MM and 39.6 MM figures by alot.

What do they do with current dies ?  And what did they do with the dies from Liberty and Saint-Gaudens coins -- are they still stored at their respective mints ?

Wow....I didn't realize that the entire Saint-Gaudens production that was not melted is only about 3 million coins out of 70 million.  And unreal......40% of ALL those coins are 1924-P's !!  Those are stats that stick out even if you just read them once.

If you had asked me before reading the book I think I would have been close to the 3 MM surviving coins and the 70 MM produced in total....but I probably thought that the 1924's were maybe 10%, 20% tops, of all the coins.  That number in the UNC-MS62 category really swells the 1924's.  I may recalculate the number for MS65 and Above and see if that 40% figure drops a bit.

Anyway, the ending sections of the book have some great data points and outstanding commentary.  I'm still reading and will report back.

I just think that you probably have lots of world coins in the hands of people who are not serious collectors who may not even be aware that there are TPGs that grade and preserve the coins.

I'll bet the U.S. has more part-time coin collectors aware of the TPGs than part-timers overseas.

Speaking of overseas...are there any foreign (European ?) TPGs ?   Or do PCGS and NGC pretty much have that market to themselves, too ?

What you mean by "not rare" is that there are unfound coins that haven't been certified yet but can swell the population census, right ?

2 hours ago, Conder101 said:

After 5 years?  The export license had been known about for decades.

I thought they knew a license had been granted, but they didn't have the actual written proof.  I thought that was what Attorney Berke (or maybe Roger) found.  Or maybe it was proof that the coin in question was the Farouk coin, that went with the export license.

Whatever, something happened to cause the government to suddenly say they'd settle for a split.  But I do think you are right, Conder, the note was known for a while.

The U.S. government actually ran a sting operation at the Waldorf Astoria to catch the American buyer and British coin dealer.   Now I know where our priorities were when Bin Laden was striking at the Khobar Towers and planning 9/11. 

The government tried to criminally prosecute Steve Fenton (the Brit) and seize the coin.  After 5 years, the letter from the Treasury authorizing the export of the coin to Egypt came out.  The govt settled for a split of the proceeds, probably recognizing that they would LOSE in a fair trial (as opposed to the kangaroo court in Philly) and this might open the door to all the 1933's being legal to possess.

The Mint and Treasury's behavior has been a disgrace.  Typical Big Government, protect the institution at all costs, damn the facts, long live the Deep State attitude.

44 minutes ago, Voltyris said:

True. They're available now via online dealers like APMEX & JMbullion for the prices I mentioned previously. The reasonable premium. Everything was out of stock for a while but now they're in stock. PF & DCAM included, with a price difference ranging in tens of dollars from the regulars. 

I love some of the Mint moderns, and they weren't getting bids at $1,800 when gold was a bit lower.  Now that gold crossed $1,700 -- they're getting bids. 

If it's a book of fiction, I don't think it matters.  Might seem unrealistic to someone who knows the coin, just like someone stealing several 1933 Saint-Gaudens from collectors when there is only one coin available.

8 hours ago, kbbpll said:

This is where I always feel like a dolt. I never see these "bullion gold coins" selling anywhere near actual gold price when they come out. Like, right now US Mint is selling 1 oz Buffaloes ($2415) and AE's ($2375), and gold is at $1712. 40% above gold price. Why not just buy gold if you're speculating? "Numismatic value" is such a crapshoot - I mean you can go back 120-140 years to some of the $10 gold in low MS and they're still not worth 40% over gold price. Moderns are pretty and cool and all that, but the "investing" side I just don't get.

It's tough to use the current period because instead of the current economic crisis driving up the price of gold, gold coin production has ceased or been interrupted and this has resulted in a gold selling at a premium (silver too).

I do believe you can see auction sites selling modern gold coins (bullion) at reasonable premiums to spot gold.  Heck, I saw 1 oz. .9999 fine gold coins not getting bids at $1,800 an ounce (PF70 and DCAM, too !)

Don't forget, slabbed and graded coins will go for more usually and ditto proofs.

6 hours ago, Voltyris said:

I searched for the book. You chose the most interesting coin, the Saint-Gaudens double eagle. I recall one that was quite notorious. Smuggled, vanished and all sort of magic. It was in King Farouk's collection. His Majesty collected everything : )  Whenever I read a book about Numismatics, I am left astonished, as to how the writer managed to research, dig up and organize all the information. In addition to adding your own take on the subject. A most impressive feat, Congratulations.    

Volt, did you get the book ?  It's available from Heritage Auctions (NOT Amazon).

I think you are talking about David Tripp's book ILLEGAL TENDER.  I haven't read his book or Allyson Frankel's DOUBLE EAGLE (Roger says her book is better).  I probably should read both because I find the story of the 1933's fascinating, but it will be difficult for me to read Tripp's book because the guy testified for the government/U.S. Mint and helped them steal back the Switt-Langbord 1933's.  I'm not sold on him as an equal to Roger as a researcher; I think he was a better storyteller.  He worked for Sotheby's and they had a financial and reputational interest in NOT having any other 1933's hit the market.  I just got a copy of their 2003 auction pamphlet marketing the 1933 Farouk Saint, it's slick but that's it.  Sotheby's could care less about the coin business or hobby, so they basically made their $$$ selling the Farouk coin and then their lead guy helped prevent the rest from competing.

They're honestly going to say Emergency Production on the label ?

What for ?  

14 minutes ago, Voltyris said:

Bullion yes, Gold ETFs, a lot of things to buy if you want precious metals, but collectibles? A bit far reach.

By collectibles, if you mean Art and Movie Memorabilia and Comics, agreed.  Even Art tends to go down when the stock market goes down.

I like coins, even those with a (reasonable) premium to gold, if you think gold is going to go up substantially.  What I think will happen is that people will learn about numismatic coins once they are drawn into gold because of a rising price.  That's what happened to me.  I didn't know about Saint-Gaudens gold coins until my 40's.

WC, your points are all on point.  I believe the debt portion of the BG deal was about $30 billion.  Without that, debt levels would be about half what it is today.  Totally agree on CVX.

3 hours ago, RWB said:

The story of Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles neither begins nor ends with just the dates on coins. So, neither does the book. Happy reading!  

Touche !! 

4 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Correct again, but this was also reported from the prior FRB survey, I believe as part of the 2016 tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances.  This is the most glaring aspect of the disconnect between the financial markets and "real" economy.  The financial markets are dominated by institutions and the top 10% who purportedly own 84% of all stocks.  Those who manage others money aren't placing their own wealth at risk and to a great extent, are detached from the economic reality in which most people live.  Aside from financial promotion, that's the best explanation for how they can permanently believe everything is so great when for the overwhelming majority, their financial situation is precarious.

Don't blame Wall Street or financial professionals like myself, blame a government and school system which encourages consumption over savings.

I favor government giving back Social Security contributions to individuals so they can save on their own.  Have the government match and let it vest over time if matched by the individual.

I've never NOT had at least a 2-year emergency fund.  And sometimes, I still needed more !

5 hours ago, World Colonial said:

I also find it interesting how people find a way to ignore the obvious.  I recently read a website article covering the recent Royal Dutch Shell dividend cut of 66%.  It was the first since 1945.  Posters expressed "surprise" that a company recently yielding over 10% in a world of 2% dividend yields, virtually zero "risk free" interest rates and multi-decade low oil prices concluded it could not be supported.  Who could have imagined that? 

There is a lot more in store where that came from.  If Shell cannot support their dividend, what's going to happen to the majority of companies whose financial statements better resemble a stable rag and whose credit worthiness is actually in the gutter regardless of their credit rating?

As a Shell shareholder who's followed the company for decades, their decison was in response to the double-whammy of The Virus and the OPEC/Russian oil glut.  Like many companies, they also screwed up with a dumb acquisition a few years back which added to their debt levels.  Without buying BG in 2015, they would have about $30 billion less in debt and would have been able to hold on to the dividend another 18 months at least.

You have some very interesting sections after the 1933 in the book, Roger.  Looking forward to reading them.  Nice touch NOT to end the book with the 1933 section. 

1 hour ago, RWB said:

All gold coins were legal tender at face value in March 1933. All gold coins were worth more than face value in March 1933 based on European commodity prices equal to about $27 per Troy ounce. No one knew what was going to happen. Newspaper consensus was that gold hoarding orders, like the bank holiday, would be temporary measures. (No living person in the USA had ever done business under any monetary standard except gold-based currency.) Melting coins was likely not given much consideration – at least it was not thought likely by Treasury’s Chief Counsel or the holdovers from Hoover’s administration.

How firm was that $27 price ?  You mean you could buy $20 Saints in the U.S.....ship them to Europe....and they were worth 35% more overnight ?

We should have had tons of gold/coins/gold certificates flying overseas then in 1932 and 1933.

I presume this was because everybody else was leaving or had left the gold standard by 1933.

Perks....I meant keeping the old patterns and coins that were 1st struck....being able to get a jump on early releases of new coins...picking and choosing nice-looking coins...etc..etc...etc.......that kind of thing.  Nothing illegal.

Suppose I worked at the Mint and was a collector.  Suppose I didn't get my 1933's right away because I was short money or figured I had a year to do it.  Then all the stuff happens with FDR and the Gold Standard.....and it's late 1933 or early 1934 and I say "Hey, I need 5 1933's for my collection, here's 5 1924's with no abrasion."

I can't believe that the Mint higher-ups would have said no.