GoldFinger1969

If CAC tapped on the brakes of gradeflation......CACG is slamming on the brakes. 

Appears "gold segregation" with gold coins and Saints/Libertys is not as big a problem, I take it ?  Gold and copper must mix pretty well ?

On 12/6/2023 at 10:32 AM, zadok said:

...those questions r not answered by design with certain intended purposes, this info obtained from the source, bank on it...as to the "hoard" this subject was addressed by David Lange once before in one of his commentaries, i do not remember exactly which one...it is not from a single collection....

Oh no doubt...clearly several hoards or collections....jeez, it's 9 tons of gold !!! 

Makes sense for multiple disparate hoards to be grouped together and sold as one....they can "piggy-back" on each other.  I think you or someone said that was often the case with famous auctions like the Adolphe Menjou 1950 and other auctions....also with the Thaine B. Price auction where some Steve Duckor coins were sold.  Someone once posted that a Buddy Epsen ("Beverly Hillbillies") auction, even though he was a legit collector, had mostly coins that were NOT his.

I guess in moderation it's not being dishonest...but impossible to determine how much of a collection actually belongs to the person whose name is attached to it, huh ? 

Bowers book mentions that the "ordinary steam press" and steel die was unable to bring up Liberty's face fully in the initial test runs in 1849.  Apparently they made a good one (maybe the one in the Smithsonian ?) using a "heavy hand press."

Not sure if or where this might be covered in a book like FMTM...but was the steam press about to be replaced by something more powerful ?  Did they temper and strengthen the regular steel dies to solve the problem ?  Was it a combination of both ? 

I know the MCMVIII UHRs and HR's were struck on the special metal press which could impact up to 170 tons of pressure, not sure how powerful this steam press was 57 years earlier.

On 2/8/2024 at 10:44 AM, olympicsos said:

If I won millions upon millions, I'd spend my money lobbying Congress to open the door for more modern versions of classic designs.

Silver or gold ?  Silver is more affordable; the 2009 UHR Saint-Gaudens didn't sell out as I recall.  Much steeper price for a 1-ounce gold coin means you can't have one every year.

On 2/8/2024 at 10:26 PM, powermad5000 said:

This is also complicated by the fact that they used different mintmarks in the analysis. The O strikes were known for being more weakly struck than any of the rest of the Mints and the S and CC were known to have better strikes than (P) Morgans. It wasn't really explained how this can affect the grading process. And then there's always the hair above the ear. In the photos of MS 60 (which is supposed to have no wear) the hair above the ear appears worn and by MS 67 that hair is full. That factor has never been satisfactorily explained to me as all MS coins are supposed to exhibit no wear.

The New Orleans Mint was notorious for "poorly struck" or weak-strike Morgans.  Conversely, San Francisco seems to have had the best almost year-in and year-out.

Then you have the entire "slider" thing whereby a less-bag marked AU coin with some "wear" on the high-points could get Mint State grading. 

Well, it would depend on how much I had won. 

A few million would lead me to spending a few hundred thousand on coins.  But winning $20 to $30 MM  would mean alot more.  The key is I presume it would be a lump-sum payment and also what I took home AFTER taxes.  Right now, winning a $20 MM lottery payable over 20 years would mean a total payout upfront after taxes of about ~$8 MM.

As for coins:  I would add a bunch of top-notch Saints including an MCMVII High Relief MS-67 or higher ....a few other Saints, maybe even including that Norweb 1908-S if it came up for sale and was priced right.... a very nice Liberty Head DE Carson City....some gold coin commemoratives I like, some much larger than 1 ounce...some MS-67 and higher Morgans....and a few other coins that grab my fancy at FUN or other big shows.

I'd also want some large denomination bills ....maybe as Gold Certificates.  Again, how high would depend on how big the lump-sump was.

Part III just came out yesterday :

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2024/2/5/fairmont-gold-pieces-part-iii-the-ungraded-fairmonts

On 2/5/2024 at 2:58 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

What I like about the resurrection of this thread is that it got me reading the DWN articles again, and they're really enjoyable.

The Fairmont Part II blog by Richard Radick showcases some of the most ingenious detective work.  A lot of hours were put into it; both research and actual write up.

Yes, agreed.  You and Zad make some great points. 

I would think that one could create spreadsheets that automatically download the PCGS/NGC population data and keep running tabs and more importantly the monthly/quarterly changes that RR apparently tracked manually ?

Had to be time-consuming, but reading the article a 2nd time I focused on how he looked for the CHANGES in the population data and then made adjustments to determine if the increase was Fairmont-related or not.

Really facsinating.

On 2/5/2024 at 1:21 PM, BLDunn85 said:

When i started asking him questions is when he motioned the cop over. So unfortunately i didnt but im chaulking it to you live and learn

Maybe he thought you were being aggressive...maybe he just overreacted because he had a similar negative experince trying to screw someone else a previous time.

Always be civil...don't raise your voice...and if another dealer or a show promoter or even a policeman comes over and asks what is going on, just clearly state your objection if it comes to that.  Like I said, unless it's clearly ILLEGAL, even if it is slimy business practices, all you can do is complain to the show promoter and/or take your business elsewhere.

On 2/5/2024 at 1:13 PM, EagleRJO said:

Did you catch the dealers name or company?

If someone was doing something ILLEGAL then maybe you report them to the show producer.  But I'm not sure it is worth it to go after someone who is just "slimy." 

There are bad actors in any group, BL.  Just take your business elsewhere if the guy is that detestable.

On 2/5/2024 at 11:25 AM, BLDunn85 said:

Thank you all and yea im starting my collection off besides inherited coins with the (50) pcgs state silver quarters and work my way up from there or until as goldfinger said my grading skills are alot better and im confident in buying un certified coins ( and only pcgs silver quarters because of the flag banners ) but then ngc,anacs,pcgs and places i know that are legit. 

Do LOTS of reading....get a Red Book...read Forum threads, internet websites/pages (by reputable sources, of course !), and specialty books on the types of coins you like.

For me, that is largely gold coins (Double Eagles) and Morgan Silver Dollars.  Lots of books on them for me to read (some updated, some dated).

Reading and looking at coins are how you become knowledgeagle in this hobby. 

Looks like the CERTIFIED and PEDIGREED (that is sent to a TPG and given the Fairmont label) is about 6,700 coins.

There could be a much larger number that were sent in for certification but not ID'd as Fairmont coins on the label because they weren't as valaable as the 1st group above.

The 3rd group would be the hoard coins itself not sent in for basic certification (not worth it, too common and/or worn).

Again, the 2-part blog really goes in-depth into the population reports and does a good and understandable analysis.  HIGHLY recommended !!  

On 2/3/2024 at 4:34 PM, BLDunn85 said:

I agree. He saved me some money .  I was just hunting silver quarters and got that barber dime and i got a seated liberty dime and called him out so not a bad hunt for the day. I think it rubs me the wrong way more that something like this will discourage or make a new coin collector quit collecting . 

BL, welcome to the forum.   You learned a pretty inexpensive lesson...be CAREFUL with what you buy especially as you spend more dear $$$ to you.

That holder clearly looks like it was created to mimic the legitimate PCGS.  PGS...PCGS....see ? 

Research what you want....buy certified unless you are confident of your grading skills....when in doubt (especially on pricier acquisitions) run it by this Forum here.  Never feel pressured to buy something, coins are always available, especially the ones that you as a new collector are most likely looking at.

On 2/4/2024 at 4:10 PM, zadok said:

...u seek too much...as we have discussed many times, the dispersal of this accumulation is by design...the pural of hoards is hoard...the distribution by dates, mints, grades n denominations will be retrievable eventually...

Yes, agreed....should be interesting. 

On 2/4/2024 at 4:10 PM, zadok said:

where the coins came from originally (read multi-source) is not relevant ....

No, but it IS interesting. 

Especially to those of us without the $$$ to buy 'em !!!    Seriously, I do spend lots of time on the research end of this hobby, wish I could spend more time on the buying end but that's life.  So I do hope the information comes out and with DB part of the masthead at SB, I am optimistic. 

On 2/4/2024 at 2:47 PM, RWB said:

Trying to analyze the date/mint/denomination distribution of a hoard is pointless unless provenance to this hoard can be established for all pieces under consideration.

What do you mean by that exactly ?  I'm sure SB would have wanted proof and got it if it was just one huge hoard or several large ones....the difficulty and potential subterfuge could come into play if instead it is DOZENS of separate collections, hoards, SDBs, etc.

Then you just tabulate them all at the Fairmont Hotel and call it ALL the Fairmont Collection !  

Clearly, SB isn't talking -- at least right now -- but you would think DB's presence on the masthead would lead to it coming out some time. 

Hey, maybe he'll give the details in a new edition of the Whitman Red Book on Double Eagles -- it's been 20 years !!! 

Liberty Head DEs in 2023:  Doug Winters year-end wrap-up with interesting observations on the Liberty Head Double Eagle (more happening there, too, with the Fairmont Collection impact).

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/12/29/the-annual-dwn-whats-hot-whats-not-list-2023-edition

Not sure I agree with his rationale or anlaysis for why "Trash Twenties" are holding up...solely because of bullion investment dealers ?  Doesn't make sense that a semi-scarce date like the 1891-S would jump to a huge premium to the Liberty Head DE commons.

Small Denomination Gold Supply Hits:  Just to show what an increase in supply from a hoard can do, I bring you these prices on coins I don't track at all but found while reading up on the Fairmont Collection from Doug Winter's 5 Random Observation post from November 2023:

"...Let’s look at the 1911-D $5 in PCGS MS63.  In the 11/2023 Stack’s Bowers sale, a PCGS MS63 example brought $22,800. In March 2019, Stack’s Bowers sold a PCGS/CAC MS63 for $36,000.

And what about the popular 1909-O $5? In the recent SB sale, a nice PCGS MS62 brought $28,800. In 11/2022, the same date in the same grade brought $31,200, while another PCGS MS62 brought $50,400 in the 4/2022 SB auction. This date is clearly trending downwards, and I believe that as more come onto the market, it will drop further in price."

Caveat Emptor for ANY "rare" or supply-constrained coins you may buy as you never know where or when supply may come from.

Guest Commentator at Doug Winter's blog has some outstanding analysis on The Fairmont Collection. 

Last 2 commentaries really go in-depth to determine the composition of what has been released...what might still be out there....where the hoard supply risk is....etc:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog?category=Market Blog

Of Note:  the January 2024 post...scroll towards the bottom.....excellent summary of all the number-crunching and gives a nice summary....appears that this "hoard" is just under 400,000 total coins when you take into account ungradeds, details, etc.  It really is massive.   Could be one of the largest gold/coin hoards of U.S. coins ever, huh ?

His analysis seems to be more on the composition of the hoard than where it may have come from (since that is really a speculative thing that I'm not sure we can know).  I'm going to re-read the posts to see if I glossed over anything and see if I can follow the intricate guestimating he does on the composition of the denominations and supply.  Quite frankly, the secrecy thing really bugs me  -- especially after the coins have been sold and marketed, why not give us the damn information ? -- it's not the codes to the nuclear black box. 

Stacks-Bowers must know more details (they are handling the sales) and David Bowers, a numismatic researcher we all respect has dug into past hoards and is a partner, so maybe there's some hope left that we'll get more details.  I understand that they have a fiduciary and business obligation to maximize the sale proceeds and if they believe giving out information like that would have (or still would) negatively impact pricing, I get being quiet.  Of course, that wasn't the case with the (smaller) Saddle Ridge Hoard.

We saw the same lack of details on the 1908 No Motto Wells Fargo Saint Hoard so let's not hope for a repeat.

Just wanted to say that for any non-experts who have this book and read it years ago....you may find that re-reading it a 2nd time with your accumulated knowledge from this hobby (including forums like this) makes it much easier to read and information much more sticky.  I posted to this effect in another thread here.

If anybody DOES re-read the book a 2nd time years after reading it the 1st time when their knowledge of Proofs was much less, I'd be interested in hearing if the 2nd time through was really beneficial.  So far, I'm finding the answer is YES to another Whitman Red Book. 

2nd Time Is Better:   Just wanted to say that I am reading Bowers book on Double Eagles for the 2nd time and it is SO MUCH easier to comprehend lots of the data, striking and die information, intricate descriptions, etc.  I think this applies to ANY book but especially ones we first read in this hobby because sometimes just getting through the book is the goal instead of retaining lots of information.

That is certainly true with a huge volume like RWB's Saints book.  Eventually, I am going to re-read it from beginning to end.....and the same with FMTM which was a book I really didn't absorb at all (I think I got it like 7-8 years ago before I was super-active on the coin threads).

Reading and posting thousands of times on all the different forums you become that much more knowledgeable about stuff, even if you still lag the veterans and experts.  But it makes re-reading books you may have just skimmed that much more immersive and understandable. 

I thought the topic was "Kevin Simpson" ? 

Isn't it a TOS Violation to post while under the influence of LSD ? 

On 1/20/2024 at 8:46 AM, J P M said:

Many times the polishing lines do not show GF and you end up with PL fields on a coin. 

Do we know WHY sometimes the polishing lines show and other times they don't ?  With modern coins, with everything tightly controlled, I would think we would.

Must have something to do with the wear on the dies, huh ?