GoldFinger1969

Is Gold too High to Buy Now?

Absolutely NOT !!!  

That's not to say that it can't go down 5-10% in a few days/weeks...but if the next $1,000 is UP -- and I think we all agree it's more likely to hit $3,100 than $1,000 -- why worry about a few hundred dollars moves here ? 

Let me be specific and tell you what I would tell my Private Bank clients.  Let's say someone wanted 100 ounces of gold.  They have the $$$ right now...sold some stock, inheritance, windfall, whatever.  I'd have them buy 20 Double Eagles or coins or bars or whatever they wanted TODAY....I'd wait a few weeks and then I'd buy more.

If the price is HIGHER....we bought the first 20 low.  If it FALLS....we buy the 2nd batch of 20 cheaper than the first batch.  I would repeat this using a time interval that was consistent with the client's risk-tolerance.  I would assume that with gold he/she wouldn't care if God Forbid we bought them all at an average price of $2,000 and then it fell to $1,500 and they panic and want to sell.  I assume this is NOT an investment but insurance and/or stuff they want to collect or show their kids/grandkids.

As long as it is $$$ that is not needed if the gold falls in price, you can either buy all-in at once...or spread it out (my choice).  The person may also want to invest some TIME researching all the different ways to buy 1 ounce of gold and/or gold coins and then decide they want a little of everything:  some SG DEs...Liberty Head DEs....modern AGEs....Kurggerands....Maple Leafs....Buffalos...maybe some Vatican or Mexican coins...etc...etc...etc.

Check out stagnating supply.  Remember....the decisions on production were made when gold was rising strongly from 2009-12.

Also note that the price has been RISING even as ETF inflows have turned negative.  This means it is (1) central bank buying or (2) retail buying.

It's Double Eagle buying, folks !! 

On 3/7/2024 at 12:03 PM, Coinbuf said:

I think the central bank buying has much more to do with this short term rapid rise in spot prices than bitcoin.

IS it rapid ?  I don't think so.  I think central bank or panic buying would have gold up $100 or $150 in a single day.  Not a few $10-$25 days.

Central Banks are NOT selling, that's the big thing.  Then add in "Peak Gold" and declining production, regulatory strangling, and resource nationalization.

You have stagnant (new) supply...no big sellers of existing stockpiles...and rising demand that pales in comparision to BitCoin or crypto.

If not for BTC/crypto...we'd be at $2,500 at least and MAYBE $3,000 already.

On 3/7/2024 at 9:43 AM, J P M said:

It is too high to buy now.

I think you shouldn't "load up" -- but if someone came into some cash I would absolutely buy some gold or gold coins here...if it pulls back, add more.

What if gold catches a major bid or a short has to cover and we race to $2,500 ?  At least then you have some exposure at this level.

If you think the next $1,000 is UP....then unless you want to wait for a decline to $2,800 from $3,000....you should buy some here. 

Above $2,150 on Wednesday. 

On 3/6/2024 at 6:50 PM, VKurtB said:

Hello? Is this thing on? #5 1933 DE  #11 1943 Bronze Cent  #36 1933 Eagle #58 1927-D DE #71 1955 Doubled Die Cent #86 1974 Aluminum Cents Sounds like six to me.

I may have pulled up a wrong link.   Re-checking.....

On 3/6/2024 at 6:02 PM, zadok said:

...surely u jest?....

I think both those coins should have been included, JMHO.  Rarest regularly-issued coin....coin with the story of the 1933.  Both deserving. 

I just looked at the 100 list.....they have the 2009 UHR there but no other Saint !!  No classic MSDs, either.  No coins from 1800's......

It's too modern a list.  They should have a list for moderns AND classics.

Can someone post the complete list here ? 

Wow, initially I would have thought 10-15.

Then upon further reflection, I realized that alot of the coins from the early-1900's like the MCMVII UHR and HR would be outside the 100 year period.  Still, 3 coins is MUCH lower than I would have thought.  Guess no special coins from the 1930's onward.

They didn't include the 1927-D and 1933 Saints, huh ? 

On 3/5/2024 at 5:46 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I am afraid that won't be necessary.  The French "Red Book" covers the entire series in a single page. One-half page devoted to the "Originals," another half to the "Restrikes."  Their story may be encapsulated in an adaptation of the Latin words attributed to Julius Caesar:  "VENI. VIDI. VICI." They came, they saw, they conquered. [And then they were gone.]

You should see if the French Central Bank has some publications or internal communications on Roosters, French monetary policy, etc.

France's role in The Great Depression has gotten alot more attention in the last 30 years.  I just ordered GOLDEN FETTERS by Barry Eichengreen.   Lots more coverage on gold flows (and maybe gold coins like Roosters ?) between the citizenry and the CBs.

On 3/5/2024 at 4:49 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

A 2nd edition of the DE book sounds more warranted and interesting than a 6th edition of the 100 greatest U.S. coins, not sure that it will have a wide enough audience though to justify publishing a 2nd edition. 

Different publishers, I'll bet. 

If the 100 Greatest can sell enough books, they'll do a new edition.  The Official Red Book folks do a new one every year and they must sell enough new ones each year to make it profitable.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:12 PM, RWB said:

No. There are no proofs except as I stated. That is what the evidence says and any other conclusion is a lie. (Unless ALL are called "proofs.")

The regular MCMVII HR's were NOT annealed like the UHR's, right Roger ?

That and the special dies/polishing distinguished the UHR patterns as proofs.

I'm surprised that no MCMVII HR's haven't gotten a "PL" designation.  Happy it didn't happen, don't get me wrong...just surprised.

On 3/4/2024 at 4:06 PM, RWB said:

There's no debate. The facts are clear and the TPG who originally made the error has merely compounded that as a way of not paying it's guarantee to people who bought as "proof" when there were none. The first dies and collar used for the initial 500 pieces remained in use during the full duration of circulation coinage. One new pair and collar were added in November so production could be increased. Also, coins w/o a fin were made from the same dies/collars - it was merely a mechanical change in planchet upsetting.

I agree...but you DID give equal time to the other side in your book, Roger...that's what I meant by debate.

BTW, I commend you for including that section even though it was clear from the earlie pages in the book that you thought there weren't any MCMVII HR "proofs."

On 3/5/2024 at 2:16 PM, Zebo said:

Information may surface between editions, but is it really worth publishing a new edition for the small amount of new information? If the new information was significant - maybe, but condition rarities - no thanks. 

I think Guide Books can be updated even with only new price information....but for the DE book, I think enough has happened that makes a 2nd Edition even more worthwhile.  The stories that are new....the additional information on hoards and shipwrecks...the gold price...the certification totals, esp. in the higher grades.  I think this is worthy of a new edition (and again, this is the only book that covers ALL DEs year-by-year).

I believe it is the only Whitman Official Red Book that hasn't gotten a 2nd edition ? 

On 3/5/2024 at 7:13 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Isn't most of that covered and updated yearly in the Official Red Book? I think that another edition would only be justified if there were major additions or amendments that needed to happen, the yearly price, data, and small blurbs can be covered by the Official Red Book. Same goes for the 100 greatest U.S. coins, if you're barely going to change the list why bother? 

If you mean the Annual Official Red Book of all coins....it just has some sketchy price estimates for a few grades for all the coins, including the DEs.  There is maybe 1/2 page or so talking about the coin series covering the entire mintage over many years -- basically, nothing. 

The Whitman Red Book on Double Eagles has about 1/2 page on every DE by mint/year....Liberty Head or Saint-Gaudens.....so tons more information.  And the pricing for commons for all those years was based on the gold price at the time of publication which was about $400...doing it NOW for $2,000 would be light-years better even if they don't do a complex and detailed price matrix or analysis like Roger did for his book.

One Interesting Thing: In the bio for Bowers page, it says that an expanded version of the book with much more detailed historical and numismatic information (sans prices) will be available to professionals, researchers, numismatists, etc.  I don't know if anything ever came of that but it sounds like all the stuff Bowers and Whitman cut out but which I think would have been -- and might still be -- of interest to Double Eagle collectors.

On 3/3/2024 at 8:02 AM, zadok said:

...New York mint...who knew?....

I think it was an assay office, right ?

On 3/4/2024 at 2:24 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I was just reading Garrett's latest NGC article and in it he writes about putting together a 6th edition of the 100 Greatest U.S. Coins book to be released in the fall and I can't help but wonder is there really a demand for a sixth edition?  Is there another book that would have wide collector appeal that should be published instead of this? These are just a few questions that popped in my head while reading the article and was curious what others thought.   Link to the article. https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/12698/ 

Good thoughts and questions, Mike. 

I don't have the book so I have to assume there's enough publishing demand that merits a 6th Edition.  The advantage of a book like this is it has the favorite coins of lots of different collectors so you increase the demand from collectors of Eagles, Double Eagles, Morgans, Barbers, Lincolns, etc.

When were the 4th and 5th editions published ?

On 3/4/2024 at 2:24 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Is there another book that would have wide collector appeal that should be published instead of this?

I'm biased, but I really want to see the Whitman Red Book on Double Eagles get a 2nd Edition -- the first was way back in 2004.  This book has information year-by-year on both the Liberty Head DE and Saint-Gaudens DE series.  I don't know of another good Liberty Head book (the other Liberty Head DE book by Bowers isn't really an annual review of that year's coins but an annual financial/economic/cultural review).  So much has happened in 20 years that the commentary sections and the data/price/certification totals could really use an update.

Roger's magnus opus on Saints is spectacular, but at 600+ pages it's alot for a beginner gold or Saints collector to commit too, unfortunately.  We die-hards love the book but not sure the casual collector will invest the time in reading it.  Unfortunately ! 

And again, it's only on Saints not Liberty Heads.

I also have a new initiation report on the gold miners and indirectly gold the metal by Jefferies.  If anybody wants to see it, since I can't post it here, then PM me your email and I'll shoot it over. 

New All-Time Closing High Today:   Looks like we will close decisively above $2,100/ounce.    Dragged up by BitCoin, for sure.

I continue to think we are headed for $3,000 in a few years.  If you have a budget for gold coins, grab some now unless you want to do most/all of your buying ALOT higher ! 

On 3/4/2024 at 12:43 PM, RWB said:

There are no proofs, except for the patterns.

I think he was joking given the debate concerning "proof" MCMVII HR's. 

On 3/4/2024 at 10:19 AM, RWB said:

The full story is in Renaissance of American Coinage 1905-1908 and a condensed version in the Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle book.

Yup, I am going back to re-read it today.  

Did you just find the letter or have you known about it for some time ?

If the Treasurer (Secretary of the Treasury ?) had a bag of these "defective" coins do we know if he had them destroyed or, after further reflection, decided the coins could be given out without too much "humiliation" ? 

On 3/3/2024 at 11:40 PM, Sandon said:

   Apparently, the Director was unsuccessful in preventing release of the "finned" coins, as I understand that the pieces with "wire rims" constitute the majority of the 1907 high relief double eagles in existence today. 

Yeah, was he saying re-strike them (and destroy these) or just do without them ?  If he had gotten his way, we'd have lost 2/3rds of the MCMVII HR's.

The difference with the Flat Rim is so miniscule to non-professionals that I'm surprised he used the phrase "humiliated."

RARE COIN TV:  Today I saw Roger's book in another infomercial, but Rick Tomaska wasn't the guy making the pitch.  It was a substitute.  Once again, the book was on a picture frame mount off to the side.

The "coins" were commemoratives from the Augustus Saint-Gaudens National Park Foundation.  They were selling the 1-ounce Winged Liberty Ultra High Relief in gold for $5,495 which is a HUGE premium to the spot bullion price.  I don't believe previous versions were retailing for that much of a premium.  They were also selling a Winged Liberty 5-ounce Silver Ultra High Relief for $995.

I don't like the premiums being charged but they were actually my least distasteful part of the 25-27 minutes.  References were made to the other 2 Ultra High Reliefs struck, the 1907 MCMVII UHR (with a Heritage snapshot showing one going for $4.3 MM) and the 2009 UHR.  Mintages of each -- 21 vs. 114,000 -- were emphasized and how THIS coin was in between those two, benefitting future appreciation.  For the gold coin, it's mintage of 299 and for the 5-ounce silver it is 999.

I like these coins but the premiums have to come down on both.  They are also issuing them every year or every other year, the novelty is going to wear off.

Rick's infomercials do a good job telling the history of the coins or commemoratives, and I applaud him for that.  I just wish the coins were cheaper -- partly out of his control, I know.  I guess if someone buys one and it stimulates their interest in the richness of this hobby, it's not a bad deal -- heck, I wish I had been exposed to double eagles much earlier as I undoubtedly would have cleaned up at much lower prices -- so we'll just have to see.

I'll see if these coins show up on HA, GC, Ebay, etc. 

On 3/2/2024 at 7:11 AM, Errorists said:

Can a Die Crack on a coin be considered as part of the device of a coin since it is raised above the field?

Errorist, why did you ask ?