GoldFinger1969

Using moving averages eliminates price spikes, CB. And I said use LOWER pre-spike prices for gold, I don't care. The point is the recent price is not some blow-off measured from 2020 or 2012 or 1980. A doubling in price in a little over a year is far different than something being 4X as expensive over 40 years. One represents 50-100% annual appreciation which is unsustainable, the other represents about 3.5% annual appreciation which is certainly not unreasonable. The fundamentals for gasoline and oil clearly changed in the last year. Not so for gold, so if the price had mysteriously doubled in the last year or two, I'd agree with you.

I hope EagleRJO is OK with the way this thread has moved. Since we discussed pricing for some gold coins he was looking at, we sort of segued into the price and valuation of gold. I hope that is OK with him and others...if not...we can continue the debate in the Gold Price Thread which is somewhere on these forums. While I am here..... https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GC*0/technical-analysis https://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html I'll try and find a site with long-term monthly moving averages.

It's harsh but I don't think libelous. Doesn't meet the 3-pronged libel test. Might be unfair or an exaggeration. But definitely not libelous. That said, it's the NGC Moderator's call.

Can I have some bread, please !!??

Let's just call it the "Semi-Efficient Market Hypothesis" and say that people have lots more information nowadays than 20 or 40 or 50 years ago.

I said use $500 as the price of gold then. Ignore bubble spikes....use rolling time periods or moving averages. My point is this is NOT 1980 or 2011 for gold's price.

Because the price of gold was fixed for 40 years. Fast-forward 9 years and your comparision is no longer valid. MORE gold is needed for a top-quality suit....a car....or a home (in most major metro areas) then was previous, which means they have outstripped gold in price appreciation/inflation. When you throw in the fact that gold cash-cost of mining is about $1,400 an ounce (maybe higher, I'll have to check) and that the wholesale price tends to approximate marginal (cash) cost, I don't see gold being way overvalued. Agreed. Gold got taken higher in a final spike each time, in 1980 it was inflation and the Hunt Silver Debacle....in 2011-12 it was the U.S. debt downgrade and the Euro Crisis. I even said a while back that you can use $500 as the price for gold in 1980, not the blowoff top. Or use rolling time periods. Or moving averages. They'll show that gold is not that overpriced compared to its past. Might not be cheap....might go lower....but doesn't need to be cut in half like Covid-19 stock plays 2 or 3 times every few months.

I was just letting you know what you probably are aware of: you can get some Mint State Saints for bullion or a modest premium, no need to drop into the AU range unless it's a scarcer year/mintmark. Yes, I was looking at the AU-58 grade since you referenced AU coins. Different grades can move at different dollar amounts, for sure. My point is use the charts for long-term (2-10 years) price moves but for the MOST ACCURATE RECENT PRICING, go by recent sales. Can't beat that.

I repeat: an asset class that is barely double the price 42 years ago and BELOW the price of 10 years ago cannot be said to be overvalued, unless you want to say it's the least overvalued among other asset classes. More people WANT to own gold than 10 or 20 or 40 years ago world-wide. Finally, as information and transparency increase, the risk premium on assets like stocks and gold has tended to DECREASE, supporting higher prices.

Most other commodities -- metals, foodstuffs, energy/oil -- have DOUBLED in the last 12-18 months. It's not gold which is expensive, it's the other stuff. I don't know how you measure "relative valuation" but it's tough to do that for non-interest bearing, non-growing assets like commodities. I can tell you that the NASDAQ is pricey relative to the non-tech S&P 500 based on historicals, but gold and other commodities are a different breed. Is gold expensive here relative to palladium ? Oil ? Natural gas ? Farm land ? I just don't see any overvaluation in gold. Doesn't mean it can't go down in price, just means that being barely double the price 42 years ago and less than the price 10 years ago should count for something in the valuation metrics.

Gengis Khan vs. James Monroe in a steel-cage match......somebody call WWE and book it !!!

But the price was artificially suppressed for decades prior to 1973. The "history" of the price is false, since government dictated it. If gold was $800 in 1979-80...and even if you use a pre-bubble spike price of $500 -- it still is less than 4x higher after 42 years. That's not 4% a year in appreciation, which I would hardly call the price today "expensive." Global demand has increased as the number of middle-class people worldwide who can afford to buy gold every now and then has probably gone up by 1 billion people. I don't think gold is dirt-cheap here or maybe even cheap. Let's call it fairly-valued, neither expensive nor cheap. As I have said before, I don't know where the next $300 move in gold is, but I am very sure that the next $1,000 is up. When we have newcomers join this site with 1 or 2 posts to this site, CB, and they are asking us if a common Saint for $3,200 might move up to $5,000 in a few years.....then you'll know it's time to take profits.

Well, I would NOT use the NGC or PCGS price graphs as accurate, thought I think for the most part they are in the ballpark. The most recent pricing, which in this case shows a sizeable drop, is most likely to be off and you should check out HA/GC auctions. For many Saints, you don't have to go down that low in grade to buy one that is available for spot gold, maybe with a modest premium. Why spend $1,730 now for an XF or AU coin when for a few hundred more you can buy an MS nice-looking one ? Of course, if a particular year is more scarce, then of course you may have to drop in grades. Do you plan on getting only 1 or 2 of the coins or a decent amount over time ? Remember, only Saints that trade as bullion should move 1-for-1 with the gold price.

If you click on the price for a 1909-D you will see the price has fallen (?) almost $700 in a couple of months. The price was flat going back years at about $2,700 or so. It's always possible existing supply hit dealers and caused a larger price drop though this is rare. It's also possible that hoards from Europe or other areas are coming back also increasing supply. As for the relative prices....it's always dangerous to compare 2 different years when the grades and scarcity value differ. An AU-58 1924 should trade at bullion price as should a 1927 AU-58. I'm not entirely sure what you are asking with your 3 choices....but if different coins in different grade conditions (or even the same graded condition) traded at similar prices (bullion or 25% over bullion, doesn't matter).....and then one rises in price....unless there's a reason for the divergence (increased demand or increased supply)....yeah, this could be a trading opportunity. But I'm not sure they happen that often to the extent it would be profitable to look for this. And if it did, you'd want to know about the demand/supply variables. If 2 coins in MS-65 trade at bullion+25% and then one suddenly cheapens, could mean a bunch of existing coins hit the market all at once...OR....new supply hit from overseas or domestic hoards previously unknown. This happened to the MCMVII High Relief a few years ago as European hoards trickled in. Also, the mintages are IRRELEVANT....it's the SURVIVORSHIP that matters. As for cleaned coins, they don't matter at the grade level where the coins trade like 1 ounce (or 0.9675 ounces) of gold. Semantics, whatever you are comfortable with. Most people don't know that an Eagle meant $10 and a Double Eagle meant $20.

If these jokers are emblematic of who is active in crytpto and BitCoin, we have many more big plunges ahead of us: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/three-arrows-founders-en-route-to-dubai-describe-ltcm-moment?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twitter-moments&utm_content=crypto

Really ? They confiscate them before the tour ?

I'm surprised you liked that show...... I heard the "G" in Fred G. Sanford stands for.....gold !!! "Uh oh....this is THE BIG ONE.....you hear that, Elizabeth....I'm coming to join you, honey....with a bunch of overpriced Mint collectibles !!!"

That's a very steep drop in the gold price the last 3 months, basically equal to the late-2021 drop but in half the time. I don't know if Russia/Putin dumped Central Bank reserves or what. Financial assets were weak for the most part, crypto got blasted....so no idea what happened with gold. But remember: a bear market wants to WEAR OUT THE LONGS before making a sustained move upward. A big decline or an annoying trading range with what appears to be unbreakable tops is not unusual. When we have people here asking if $3,000 is the top and are the predictions of $4,000 and $5,000 gold reasonable....THEN it'll be time to dump if you're a trader.

Sorry for you loss, you can subscribe to my forthcoming newsletter and hotline service. Prices are sticky on the downside, that's no secret. But it takes a few months, if not a year or so before lower gold bullion prices impact gold numismatics tied to the spot price.

You can't go by the absolute price and compare over a set period of time. Gold has made moves of 100-300% excluding the 1970's (which I consider an outlier). A move of 50% over 6 years and reaching highs achieved over a decade earlier does NOT strike me as excessive, a bubble, or overvalued. I suspect moving averages would confirm this. Compared to the move in certain financial assets and crypto, I think gold is dirt-cheap in the aggregate. It's gone nowhere for a decade. It's up 50% in 6 years and now down 10-15% in a few months. I'm not one of those gold bugs you see on YouTube, but I think buying A POSITION here is OK. By all means, be prepared to buy more another 5-7% lower and then 15-20% lower if alot of things go wrong for gold fundamentals (I don't think they will). As I've said before....I don't know where the next $200 move is in gold, up or down...but I am sure the next $1,000 move is UP.

Curious....where do you think gold should trade if it headed to "fair value" ?

Not bad to have one, but the Internet and online auction sites are your best friend for historical pricing. Price charts here at NGC aren't bad for tracing long-term movements.

If folks are willing to buy ASEs at a slight-to-low premium to the underlying silver price...and that price rises too high for plain-vanilla ASEs....I think folks will turn to pure bullion coins or those close to it like circulated/worn Morgans or even bars etc.

Well, when gold was knocking on $1,900 I didn't see any outrageous prices. They have remained sticky to the upside as gold fell almost $200 in a few months so maybe that is what you are seeing. It will depend on the specific coin grade and year/mint you seek. But for generic commons in MS-65 and MS-66 which I track pretty closely, I detect no unwarranted price spikes in the last year or so. Keep in mind all that stimulus money and stay-at-home-activity led to people getting into our little neighborhood so demand HAS increased.

Just trying to create a market for a special product that to me is NOT that special. Nothing illegal, they're just like Fred G. Sanford in his junk dealership trying to talk something up.