GoldFinger1969

Bill.......$2-$3 increase ?

BTW....the 1930-S Saint went for a total of just under $60,000 INCLUDING bp !!

So the initial listing asking for $60,000 wasn't that far off the mark, it was the commission that pushed it too high for bidders.   8 bidders were willing to pay $20K or more.

On 7/10/2022 at 11:29 PM, Cat Bath said:

Is it just me or do these kind of "True Views" look like they don't show any luster ?

The new GC pics look pretty good.  BuffaloHead's pic above also shows shine and luster.

Bill Gross, the former "Bond King" who founded PIMCO, had a complete set of U.S. stamps as far as I know including the "impossible" ones like the Inverted Jenny's.  So he'd be  famous collector, IMO, at least if you watched "Wall Street Week" in the 1980's and 1990's. 

On 3/10/2024 at 10:52 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Wayne Gretzky,  Jack Black,  Nicole Kidman,  Dennis Rodman (to whom the "Rocket Man" gifted a set of gold coins from North Korea)  Martin Sheen,  James Earl Jones, Nolan Gould and Kellan Lutz.

Gretzky may just be a collector via his part-ownership with 2 other gents of a T-206 Honus Wagner card.  JEJ strikes me as scholarly and not surprised if he is into coins.  A few of our astronomy club members visited him like 20 years ago and he was into space and stuff.

The others...who knows ?

If Taylor Swift wore a Saint-Gaudens or other classic gold/silver coin as a pendant or something....you'd have hundreds of thousands of people buying in no time.  It would be BIGGER than the Wall Street stampede of 1989. 

Great find, Zebo.  I have a bunch of posts/graphs detailing how gold is peaking in production/supply growth while demand like you cite is increasing.  I'm travelling so they'll have to wait but I will post them here or in a similar thread @ NGC.

Hundreds of millions of Asians will want gold, not Bitcoin.  Ditto Africans and others.

South Africa is producing 2/3rds less than she did in 1970.  CAPX is 1/2 what it was a decade ago.  The metal continues to move into STRONG hands, people who won't sell on a $250 rise but maybe a $1,000 rise. 

On 3/11/2024 at 11:49 PM, VKurtB said:

I can’t believe this needs to be typed, but “gradeflation” is when coins of identical quality (or even the very same coin) keep getting higher and higher GRADES. It has nothing whatsoever to do with prices. 

But "market grading" is influenced by rapid and rising prices which leads to (one form of) gradeflation.  Read JA's comments in the 2022 CoinWeek article about 1985 Type Sets.

I thought both of the major TPGs used 3 people around a table.  

Good discussion....curious....are any of you familiar with the (in)famous Franklin Gradeflation Thread ATS ?

On 8/1/2023 at 7:44 PM, Henri Charriere said:

PCGS ran a piece about the 2014-W Gold Kennedy Half Dollar two weeks ago. Here's what they had to say...Almost 75,000 were minted, the maximum number authorized.  The Mint's issue price was $1,240. Within days the price more than doubled to $2,500. and some shot up past $5,000.  The first specimen sold at the coin show in Chicago, graded PR-70 DCAM, was later sold in a "private treatise transaction" for $100,000.  Today, the .999 fine gold coins weighing 3/4 oz. troy have since settled to melt which was close to $2,000.

This was unreal.  Everybody thought it would be a bubble but forgot the mintage was too high.  

I could be wrong, but it appears that when mintages get above 50,000....demand is satiated.

On 3/9/2024 at 9:16 PM, Dave1384 said:

I recently purchased a ‘23s quarter. The greysheet wholesale bid price for it is 400.00 more for one with a bean. So, I now need 2 ! Opinions to get a better price ? THAT is grade inflation and it permeates this hobby . Another angle to navigate And it irritates me to no end. Roger is right, there is an element of greed.   There is a coin shop near me that had 3 half eagles  . They are also on eBay. One of those dates has 2 listings ; one in an NGC holder and one in a PCGS holder. Same grade, ms 61 . The latter holder is 100.00 more. Buy the coin , not the label everyone says. I like the owner, but this is bull sht.  All this might not quite pertain to the op’s question, but it’s two examples of inflation where it ought not to be. 

I think these are more cases of high prices than gradeflation.  Also, specialization of marketing.

At least you the seller/buying know what you are getting for when you sell/buy.  40 years ago, you might be selling a $400 coin for $125 or buying a $125 coin for $400.

13 bidders on that coin in total, including the Stink Bidders ...7 of them willing to pay over $20,000.  The rest dropped out once it hit $5,000.

NOBODY bid previously at $60,000.  Which just proves what my friend The Bonddaddy always says:  there are no bad coins, only bad prices !! 

On 8/7/2023 at 1:19 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1930-S Double Eagle: Here's something you don't see too often.....an AG-03 CAC for a 1930-S that looks REALLY circulated. 

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1298989/1930-S-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-PCGS-AG-03-CAC-Green  I'm kind of surprised that it goes for about the asking price of $60,000 maybe a bit less....I would think that any serious collector who can afford that amount will just pay up 2-3x to get one closer to EF or AU.  Do people really go down that far in quality for Saints and other valuable coins ?

It's up for sale again and this time at a lower price it's going to sell.  Currently at $41,000:

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1535615/

"This coin is an exceptionally rare date - and out of all of the late date rarities, 1931, 1931-D, 1932 - the 1930-S is by far the rarest.  Over the past few years, we have seen the 1930-S break away from the other rarities, as it is now being appreciated more.

During the great depression, it is amazing someone kept this coin as a pocket piece.  There is not a single 1930-S graded below AU-58 by PCGS or NGC, except this coin."

On 3/8/2024 at 12:46 PM, Coinbuf said:

In the past you have sought to use Chinese citizens as the source of the impetus for a $3,000 target.  

I've used tham as 1 component in a rise higher -- and I didn't only mean Chinese buyers, but I listed China as one of many countries that couldn't afford any per-capita gold consumption decades ago and NOW can.

That pattern is being replicated by countries that in the past bought close to NOTHING...and today they have 3 billion consumers with a middle class of 700 million (growing 30 million a year) and some of that money goes to gold.

Check out the per-capita gold chart above, CB.  Look at some of the emerging countries like Vietnam or India -- it's nothing.  That's what is going to move gold to $3,000 an ounce -- and maybe to $5,000 by 2035.

On 3/8/2024 at 12:46 PM, Coinbuf said:

Apples and oranges, gold has been in a very tight range for quite some time, so this is a rapid move relative to how it has acted recently.   Trying to compare that to highly volatile assets like bitcoin is a false comparison.I disagree, too many retail buyers are having trouble just putting food on the table and paying the rent to load up on gold at these price levels.   In the past you have sought to use Chinese citizens as the source of the impetus for a $3,000 target.   Data shows that that segment has cooled due to the price runup, that only leaves central bank buying as the logical source of the spirited buying.   I did not say that every central bank was in a buying frenzy, but it really only takes a handful (which is what we have now) to see the current spike.

I disagree that a 5-7% move in gold is alot.  Only a few years ago gold moved 5% in a day.

Yes, central banks are buying -- but it's not only for monetary reasons, but for retail buyers in the host countries.  Look at my Indian graph for example.

Regardless of WHO is buying....there is hardly any SELLING.  Which means gold has a bid and over time, is going alot higher.

On 3/8/2024 at 2:13 PM, zadok said:

...u have to quit thinking bout everything in terms of investments...those that really know dont think that way....

I'm not...I'm saying it's not an investment.  Only super-savvy people like you can "invest" smartly and come out ahead, Zad. 

The average person or newcomer with Get Rich schemes is going to get burned.  That's my point. 

$2,200 intraday.  

On 3/8/2024 at 12:22 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Same genus, same species, but different sub-set or sub-species. "When you're a jet, you're a jet all the way," but precious metals is different with a major divergence in branches going all the way back to pre-Cambrian times. That distinction must be recognized and accepted.  When the former owner of the '33 D.E. and one-cent magenta British Guiana postage stamp bid on those items, I seriously doubt it was because he was enamored of them. Those had INVESTMENT written all over them. There was the intent and expectation, whether expressed or not, that he would profit, and perhaps handsomely so, at some time in the future. Briefly, there is gold bullion and numismatic gold collectibles. That distinction must be maintained.  All gold [and silver] coins are created equal within their respective series, but unlike bullion they are subject to the additional demands, or lackluster fickle ways of the market.

Even bullion is highly volatile and does NOT pay you for that volatility with income or interest.  It's why gold is a lousy investment vehicle, short- or long-term.  It's like running a race -- 100 meter dash or marathon -- with a 15 pound weight attached to one's leg.

I do think that gold will work somewhat to make gains since I believe the supply-demand fundamentals the next 5-10 years are very favorable.  5-10% CAGR is possible/likely.  

But using 30-year ROLLING time periods to eliminate timing bias, gold rarely works to ourperform stocks, bonds, or conventional investments like REITs or private equity.

On 3/7/2024 at 6:09 PM, RWB said:

The report, although lacking detail, is factual. It also explains why Costco is doing this -- it's for the "treasure hunt" mentality of buy it now 'cause it might not be here tomorrow.

They sold gold bars months ago -- sold out, as I recall.  If anything, I would normally consider this BEARISH for gold as it shows that a mass retailer is selling to Joe and Josephine Six Pack.

But gold continues to go up....it's retail and central bank buying combined with NO major selling like by CBs.

Gold is in very strong hands.  Drops are being bought...corrections erase after a few weeks/months.  VERY bullish going forward.

$3,000 by $2030. 

On 3/8/2024 at 6:18 AM, Jason Abshier said:

As for investors ? I would not blow all my money buying graded Gold coins as an investment , there’s much better stuff to invest into during 21 century such as Real estates ? Stocks? I never really looked at a coin collection as an investment more of something I would want give my kids or my grandchildren some day if they are interested … I really don’t want a dime back from my collection but if my kids don’t want in further I guess I’ll just dump it out in auctions get whatever I can for it and turn around invest money into something the kids want 

Gold and/or gold coins are NOT INVESTMENTS !!! 

As a professional money manager and investment analyst, I can assert UNEQUIVOCABLY that unless you are very lucky or very sharp (like some of our people here) it is virtually impossible to generate stock and bond returns from coins and/or precious metals.  Even trophy coins like the 1933 Double Eagle or other trophy coins struggle to generate returns higher than 5-7%, if not lower.  First, the starting price tends to be higher because some coins have inelastic demand.  Second, there is no dividend/income component to add to the capital gains.

While some of our veterans here have made lots of $$$, they are the minority making money (like daytraders) and they tend to be super-smart and at this game for a LONG time.  Partly it was a quirk of many of them having bought in the days when the gold and silver prices were fixed and suppressed; also, they got in on commemoratives and small denomination U.S. (or world) coins before the demographic bulge (high demand) kicked in during the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's. 

So...make sure that your hobby $$$ or speculation $$$ for gold or PMs or gold coins are SEPARATE from your mutual funds, stocks, bonds, money markets, etc.   Mentally, I would write down the money I invest to coins/gold/PM's to ZERO and that way...anything I have in the future is a windfall.

I expect my nephew and nieces to sell whatever mutual funds or stocks/bonds I leave them over time.  But should I be lucky enough to get an MCMVII HR, I would hope they would keep it and pass it on decades later as I hopefully am able to do. 

On 3/7/2024 at 10:37 PM, Jason Abshier said:

I treat my gold coins like any other coin in my collection as numismatic collectible … I’m not all hyped up and hell bent buying gold like it’s a retirement investment …. I take joy in building and selecting certain coins for my collection that’s my purpose , a lot newer folks getting into the hobby mistakenly believe gold is best money can buy … sadly that’s not true ! We as collectors know that … now if you you’re investing into some gold to sell when hard times hit ? Now is okay time to buy some gold when price is dropping and sit on it for longer term when market spikes 

Well said. 

I think so many people got fooled by the 1970's 20-fold rise in gold and silver and the huge gains made by gold and silver stocks.  It was a once-in-a-lifetime scenario that never repeated.

Anybody can leave a bank account or brokerage account to a family relative or friend when they pass on.  But a gold coin or small collection...that's something that part of it may be kept and that person will think about you in posterity.  It will also stimulate interest in history and numismatics -- to some extent -- as they research the coins. 

On 3/7/2024 at 5:31 PM, Henri Charriere said:

There a great many variables involved in this, one of which is rarely mentioned on the Forum: age. If you are an old dinosaur like me, getting rich quick, which ought not to be a consideration for anyone, except perhaps gamblers, is out of the question. A sensible person, unlike me, would not put all his eggs in one basket. The word sell is not a part of my vocabulary but for the benefit of those for whom it is, they may wish to consider this: if you sell, when gold has hit what you believe to be is its zenith, you have effectively ruled out the opportunity to buy again in the here and now unless you are privy to information not generally available to others.  For me, unlike most reasonable people, I am a Set Registrant.  The die was cast.  It doesn't matter what the price is because like marriage, I must be prepared, for better or worse, to defend my ranking, with upgrades, whether I wish to or not, at all costs.  If you are young, you can enjoy the luxury of taking risks.  If you are retired and living on a fixed income, you have to exercise extreme caution. GF1969 is correct on one thing: investment strategy. Diversify your investment holdings. And just as errors and varieties ought not to be the province of the novice collector, I would advise a conservative approach with gold.  Whether gold is too high to buy is a question I am ill-equipped to answer conclusively.  

You make some excellent points:

• Gold is NOT an investment.  If anything, it's a speculation.  Buy it as insurance, because you like to collect, something to leave your heirs.  NOT to "make money."

• If a big drop would cause a problem......don't buy.

• DO NOT use leverage....EVER...but especially on a volatile illiquid asset.

Chart 1 doesn't look like any kind of bubble.

Chart 2 shows that gold production is not directly tied to prices, thanks to long FIDs and CAPX decisions.

Chart 3 shows that the great producer -- South Africa -- is in decline.  Imagine if Saudi Arabia were to show 5% declines in oil production each year.

Chart 4 shows gold production back to 1970.  It's peaking.

What does this all mean ?  It means demand is rising every year...and supply is tight....the easiest supply is central bank selling and they aren't doing that anymore, they're buying.  This is a prescription for a MASSIVE rise in the gold price -- and I am NOT a gold bug.

We saw this once before.....the period up to 1971-74, when the gold price was fixed for decades earlier. That was under the gold exchange standard of Bretton Woods.  Now...I don't know if it's closer to 1962 or 1972...but gold is CLEARLY like a beach ball being held under the water line and it's going to rise up. 

Only question is when. 

Did you miss out on buying Saints or gold coins at $500/oz 20-25 years ago ?  Years from now, they could be saying the same thing about coins in the low-$2,000 range.  

Look at how much more buying a fast-growing -- but low income, poor -- country like India is buying today.  Look at the long-term buying being absorbed by one country, albeit a large one (the Indian table).  It's out-of-date but the figure is now 750-800 tons per year (double the last entry.....25% of annual production today).

Now ask yourself....dozens of African countries....dozens of Asian and Central/South American countries....are their little people going to buy Rhodium or Palladium...or something they know for thousands of years......GOLD !! 

On 3/7/2024 at 3:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

Yes $2,150 up from a very stagnant price range of between $1,975 - $2,025 over the past few months in a matter of a few days is a rapid rise in my book.   

It's nothing.  Check out the move in Bitcoin or crypto over that period.  Check out bond spreads.  Check out NVDA or SCMI.

We're up 5% in a few months.  Those assets are up 5% a day 1 or 2 days a week...for months !! 

On 3/7/2024 at 3:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

The recent threat to liquidate Russin assets and turn those monies over to Ukraine has the central banks in China, Turkey, and a few others moving money out of dollars and into gold as a hedge against a similar threat.    None of this makes any real technical sense as the dollar remains strong and typically we see an inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, much like we have been seeing as gold had retreated below $2,000 very recently against a strong dollar.   So I personally think this is a bubble that will deflate (at least some) once tensions in the middle east subside, now when that might happen is very difficult to know.

Authoritarian despots might fear capital controls -- their countries usually employ them themselves -- but most countries are democracies and this doesn't affect them.

The  ETF graph above shows that it is NOT institutional buyers driving the move.  It is retail buyers, The Little Guys, who are buying gold en masse.  They're buying coins, bars, whatever.  Maybe some Chinese/Indian early-2024 buying, too (that's ending I believe).

No doubt people are reading the 86 page Saint-Gaudens thread on this forum and mopping up common and generic Saints. 

That's the ticket, as Jon Lovitz' character used to say !!