GoldFinger1969

On 5/20/2024 at 5:48 PM, zadok said:

...gasoline keeps going up, but i dont double-dip n store it away...is it an "investment" as well?...u have stated gold is not an investment vehicle many times before n i agree but i keep buying it at all levels n do not sell, it serves a much different purpose, as long as u can carry it all n run fast....

Not an "investment" in the sense that without dividends, growth, or income....it will likely NOT compound over a long period of time.

On 5/20/2024 at 1:54 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t see any tailwind lasting that long. Gold ALWAYS overcorrects, in BOTH directions. 

Since the market has been allowed to dictate the price, the price of gold tends to go up parabolically for 5-10 years and then correct and go NOWEHERE for 1-2 decades.

I think a new gold bull market started in 2018-19 at about $1,400.  I think we can at least triple if not go up 4-5 fold (forget about a 6-10 fold rise).  Even if you use the 2015 low of about $1,050 we still have room to run.

Gold fundamentals -- supply and demand -- look great for years out.

On 5/20/2024 at 12:20 PM, VKurtB said:

Truthfully, I’d rather have the stock and bond portfolio I presently have. It’s doing very well. 

No disagreement.  For the small % that many have in gold and for those who collect gold coins strictly for numismatic reasons and not gold-investing reasons....it's just a nice tailwind to have over the next 5-10 years.

Two Obervations on Ebay and GC unsold gold stuff:

1. Folks asking too high a price or a price that equals recent sales or FMV....BUT...when you add in fees, BP, S&H, you are anywhere from 15-20% higher from the buyers perspective. 
2. Others are trying to go by bubble prices from years ago which are unrealistic, even with gold much higher.  And some are using gold as a reference, i.e., 2009 UHR MS-70 should sell for 2x price of gold (2009-18 prices) so it should sell for 2x higher price today. 

On 5/19/2024 at 3:55 PM, zadok said:

...if all else fails, u still mite be able to be a fractional owner of Seize the Grey....

Secretariat fan myself.  Since his owner went to bat for him on the 1973 Preakness, he has the record for all 3 Triple Crown times.  There was a glitch with the time at the '73 Preakness (hard to believe) and tapes of the run didn't match up with the time.  

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2023-secretariat-the-preakness-and-39-year-controversy

On 5/20/2024 at 8:26 AM, zadok said:

...accurate, but not the purpose for gold...the litmus test is..."at the end of the day, would u prefer a pocket full of gold or a basket full of greenbacks?"....

I'm not asking either question....I just think gold goes higher over the next 5-10 years.....and since I like collecting coins, I get to "double-dip" by investing in something that goes up in price. 

On 5/15/2024 at 12:38 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

2009 UHR on Saturday at 5:30 PM and 6 PM on Bloomberg TV.

They wanted $4,700 for an MS-70 over the weekend....with gold at $2,400 I think $3,000 is FMV.   

Seeing lots of coins not getting bids in the low-3's on Ebay. 

On 5/2/2024 at 7:01 PM, VKurtB said:

You have OBVIOUSLY not been paying attention to what RWB has been saying over and over and over again on the subject of grading. I must wonder whether the failure to pay attention is intentional or accidental. 

Everybody's opinion is different and then we weigh those opinions differently. 

We all have different perspectives.  Not sure what the controversy is all about.

In case you are interested, the 1880-S was one of the coins heavily marketed during the Coin Bubble of 1989.  I was just doing some research on that period.

The 1880-S Morgan in MS-65 condition hit a peak of $550 in May 1989.....fell to $75 a few years later.....and today is about $175 (without CAC and PL designations).

On 12/25/2022 at 8:42 AM, World Colonial said:

If Garrett gets his wish, the traditional collector is going to get priced out of many coins they previously could afford. 

Maybe, but it can't be worse than those in the early-1970's who saw gold quadruple before they were legally allowed to buy it....then saw it quadruple again in 5+ years.

Folks who for decades knew it was worth $35/oz. suddenly had to pay $150 - $750 an ounce, with the metal pretty much averaging about $350 for the next 20 years.

WC, I totally disagree.  And I think tens of millions of Americans who have diversified portfolios with stocks, bonds, and cash would disagree also.

This isn't investors being marketed to.  The small investor has lots of power and controls trillions.  Outfits like Vanguard practically work for free to serve them. 

On 1/13/2024 at 10:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

In 1962 US Treasury Department policy toward gold ownership was little changed since 1933. Gold for jewelry was legal. Gold coins dated 1932 and older could be legally held, but ONLY if physically in the US and as collectibles, not investments. All gold imports were forbidden, except by special license which was rarely granted. So, a US $20 St. Gaudens gold piece was available in Switzerland for US $50, but, due to a shortage of supply in the US, it was worth $60 plus. Hmmm…US gold coins minted prior to 1933 were legal if already here? You couldn’t legally bring them in. But, if you were able to get them here, there was a nice profit. Interesting. Sounds like an invitation to the bootlegger. My company, Camino Coin, was founded in 1959. Although our primary business was numismatics, we soon were deeply involved in buying and selling precious metals. In Europe, these services were provided by banks. US government policy was harsh, and the gold coin bootleggers reign existed through the early 1960s. The process was simple: the bootlegger purchased the US gold coins in Europe where most of them had resided since 1933, and had them shipped to Canada. So far, everything was legal. Getting the gold safely across the border was the problem. Treasury Department enforcement against the smugglers was sporadic. Most of the gold coins arrived safely, but occasionally the feds would “send a message to the coin community” by making midnight raids and confiscating gold as if they were dealing with dangerous drugs. In one instance, I saw the process close up. A smuggler carried gold coins from Canada to the state of Washington, packaged them, and mailed the parcel from a Seattle post office to a US dealer. (This fellow was selling them to me.) When the dealer’s sister sought to pick them up at her California post office, the Secret Service confiscated the coins. The dealer, desperate to recover his merchandise, argued that since the coins were mailed from Seattle, they were physically in the US, thereby not subject to confiscation. The government held that these coins were never “here,” but rather in transit from Canada, hence, contraband. The case finally went to a US Circuit Court and the government prevailed.  Near the end of JFK’s presidency, the Treasury Department modified its restrictions on gold coins minted 1932 and earlier. US and foreign coinage could now be legally imported by Americans. This led to an avalanche of European gold coins like the British Sovereign, the French and Swiss 20 Franc, and all the American gold coins coming into the US.   In 1973, with the government in disarray, and a president near impeachment, a small but energetic movement to eliminate all remaining restrictions on gold ownership won a shocking victory and for the first time in over 40 years, Americans could freely own and trade gold without restriction.  The late, great coin dealer and conference entrepreneur James U. Blanchard III was the main force behind the struggle. For the first time since 1932 gold coins, bars, and gold certificates could be freely imported. Items that, prior to January 1, 1974, were almost as dangerous to handle as heroin were part of everyday commerce. But it took a while for a dealer to hold a Krugerrand or a Credit Suisse gold kilo bar in his hand without looking over his shoulder to see if a Secret Service agent was lurking in the shadows."

Re-reading this section, and knowing that noted PITA Leland Howard (the guy at the center of the 1933 Double Eagle 20 years earlier) was the key guy in the 1960's determining who could and could not get an Import License for gold coins (generally NOT !!  )......I wonder how guys like Paul Wittlin and Q. David Bowers, etc....were able to bring in hundreds (thousands ?) of gold coins, including Saints, year-after-year ?

BTW, Howard was director of the Treasury's Office of Domestic Gold and Silver Operations since its inception in 1961 through his 1967 retirement.

On 5/17/2024 at 9:34 PM, World Colonial said:

I did say that, but I think I got the coin wrong or might have.  I'm not sure the article identified which one.  It might have been a Liberty Seated quarter.

"....One panelist, coin dealer and longtime consumer advocate Scott Travers, lamented the fact that a classic high-population quarter that he owned had lost significant value (from $34,000 to $6,000 USD) in recent years."

Definitely a quarter, but not sure what type.

Jordan cards come back to Earth:

https://www.altaninsights.com/blog-posts/unpacking-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-1986-fleer-michael-jordan-rookie-card

On 5/17/2024 at 9:38 PM, World Colonial said:

Here we go again, There is no difference between speculation and "investment" in the financial markets.  It's marketing BS.

No, investments use time and fundamentals to work in one's favor.  Compounding interest or dividends....cash flows....valuations.

Speculations (i.e., options especially short-dated ones) are clearly different than quality equities or bonds.  You're involved in a guessing game because most options expire worthless.  Most stocks do NOT expire with negative returns. 

Interesting how NFTs and Sports Cards (aside from the Mickey Mantle Rookie Card) took a shellacking in the last 2+ years. 

WC, you mentioned Scott Travers a while back....apparantly he paid $34,000 for a Barber Quarter that is down to $6,000. 

Is there a special Barber coin worth that much, unique condition/mintmark/year or something ?  I'm not familiar with the series.

$2,417...up $32...new ATH.  

$3,000 by 2030 maybe sooner.  Stop waiting for a crash back to $1,800. 

On 5/15/2024 at 10:51 PM, RWB said:

The change in gold price to $35/oz stimulated an even greater surge in mining, including mines that were only marginal before 1934. The present open market price has had a similar effect although it is spread over a decade or more.

Biggest problem is that the low-hanging fruit has been plucked and there's been no great technological improvement in mining efficiency as there has been with oil production and fracking.

Throw in decades of lousy M&A and CAPX projects and shareholder destruction and it's no wonder gold production has stalled (peaked ?).  Let's see if a stustained price close to $2,400 (or more) boosts production.  Effects are usually HIGHLY lagged.

While we had our own Gold Rush in 1848 in California, worldwide gold production really surged in the late-1800's:  

"Beginning in 1887 there was a steady increase in the world's annual output of the yellow metal, and since I897 the production has been at a rate which would have caused dismay had it been predicted ten years before. In I890, according to statistics compiled by the director of the mint, the world's supply of gold available for monetary use was less than $4,000,000,000. In 1907 it exceeded $7,000,000,000. At the same time, based upon this gold, there was a gigantic expansion of banking credit. In the United States, bank deposits (including those of savings banks) increased between I890 and I907 from $6,000,000,000 to $19,000,000,000, and practically all of this expansion took place after I897. According to computations made by the comptroller of the currency the item of individual deposits in national and state banks increased from $7,000,000,000 in 1900 to $13,000,000,000 in 1907."

On 5/15/2024 at 12:33 PM, zadok said:

...interesting, but possibly u have the full-timers n part-timers confused...

Yup....for sure, PT'ers can buy or look every few months or even every year or so...to those active every few weeks.

Wide variance, you are right.  

On 4/13/2024 at 7:41 PM, VKurtB said:

Being as familiar as I am with the “older” pre-Obama Swiss banking secrecy situation (both my father and his brother, my uncle, had Swiss numbered accounts - all re-onshored during the Obama administration), I believe that there will be further drip-drip-drip “new” hoards or mini-hoards coming out of Switzerland. Only Americans were affected by the gold prohibition. The Swiss banks sold U.S. gold to clients worldwide. What condition? Well, that’s the question, ain’t it? 

Kurt, what happened to the Swiss banking laws during Obama ?  Less secrecy ?

I have to check the Swiss gold accumulation relative to France/U.S. from the 1920's-1930's.  That would indicate the presence of U.S. coins going to Switzerland.  I see plenty of NY Times articles on the French banks, but haven't been able to find "hoard" articles for the Swiss....so far. 

On 5/15/2024 at 9:56 AM, zadok said:

...keep on telling urself that, while ur designing book covers...hint: sloppy sells, verbose n tedious not so much....

Roger's 650-page book on Saints is outstanding.  And his other books on other coins have gotten good reviews.

I think there's a market for information in our hobby.  Just not that much among the part-timers.

2009 UHR on Saturday at 5:30 PM and 6 PM on Bloomberg TV.

On 5/14/2024 at 2:42 PM, VKurtB said:

OF COURSE they are. SOMEBODY has to pay for that television time, and IT IS THE COIN BUYER, nobody else. That is the flaw in ALL television coin shows. Air time is expensive; it adds to the seller’s overhead, and YOU PAY FOR IT!

If somebody just buys 1 or even passes and just learns from the show, I think it's OK.  I just hope nobody is buying their next 5 years's worth of gold at a 30% premium.

On 4/7/2024 at 10:12 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wells Fargo Hoard, Initial Selling Prices:  Found an old article that mentioned that the MS-65's sold for about $1,200....the 66's for $3,000 and the 67's for $10,000. 

I'm trying to figure out if the MS-67's sold for $10K because of Wells Fargo Hoard hype...or if the market for 67's was that high in general back then.  I think they just overpriced the 67's relative to the 66's.

Can anyone recall what common 67's -- 1908 NM, 1924's, etc. -- sold for back then ?

1894-S Liberty Head Double Eagle infomercial this Friday morning @ 12:30 AM (Thurs Night/Friday Morning) on Blooomberg TV.

I think there's another one for another common LH DE on Saturday.  Will report back if anybody is interested.

The story-telling IMO is very good in these segments....you DO learn alot.  I just dislike the high prices charged, even accepting they have to make a profit, I just think they're a bit too high.