Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[J P M]

I agree that you can build a whole set of coins in one day. If you have enough money. I do not, so I shop around. I collect nickels as most of you know so as a example. We will use a MS66 1967 that I considered hard to find. There were 107,325,800 coins struck that's a lot. So is this coin rare ? A graded coin is hard to find at a good price. NGC has 41 graded higher than this coin and PCGS only has 4 higher I wanted a MS 67 but settled for a 66 because the highest grade for this coin is  a MS 67 and averages from $200 to $900 and the MS 66 go for around $75 I picked up this coin for $20 and there are none with FS. So is it a rare coin ? It is to me.   

Edited July 12, 2023 by J P M

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/11/2023 at 3:52 PM, VKurtB said:

Commoditization, just like ANY fad in coins, simply HAD TO crash. I knew it. Many friends did not. Some literally hanged themselves. They bet HARD on a one-way trip to the stratosphere. You have to grasp the sheer enormity of the “in canvas bags for decades” supply. You want to talk about hoards? Now THOSE were HOARDS!! They’re STILL a supply overhang on the Morgan market. 

I'm going to guess that if the submission times weren't long by 1993 (the time of the article I cited).....which was 6-7 years after the start-up of both PCGS and NGC....that maybe lots of collectors/dealers were "fooled" into thinking there was no big rush coming.  That's the only thing I can think of.

If I was a dealer/collector back then....and the turnaround time on submitting to a TPG in 1993 was 1-2 weeks, maybe down from 1-2 months or whatever it was when the TPGs were brand new and there was a "rush" to submit....I would think that there was not a huge supply a coming.

But...in the immortal words of George Jefferson ("Jefferson Cleaners.....7 convenient locations....1 near you !!" ).....I could be wrong. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/11/2023 at 4:29 PM, VKurtB said:

Remember, relatively speaking, “nobody” cared about silver dollars up though the 1960’s and a little beyond. They traded at face, and people SPENT THEM TO GET RID OF THEM. (Northeastern USA). They were literally the Sacagawea dollars of their time.

Well, in the 1960's folks thought coins would always have metal/silver in them....we were on the gold standard.....and dollar and inflation problems were a decade away.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/11/2023 at 7:44 PM, World Colonial said:

I have said that the vast majority of US coins dated 1933 and later should be worth no more than the TPG fee or nominal premiums to silver spot.  That's because the coins are both very common and have a (very) low preference.  I state this because I infer the supply is higher or much higher than you believe.

Don't you believe that in high grades, even "common" coins should command a premium ?  The supply in that GRADE is certainly less than a grade 2 or 3 increments lower, right ?   JPM's nickel example from above.

Edited July 12, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[cladking]

On 7/11/2023 at 5:50 PM, World Colonial said:

You just agree with the pretense in US collecting that there is significance to this numismatic minutia.

You call "quality" minutia but other collectors might call things like "historical importance", "date", "country of origin", or even "rarity" minutia.  

As I keep saying when most of an issue like '76 Ikes look like garbage right from the mint it is only natural that collectors seek nicer examples.  

Quote

What you claim is "scarce" or "rare" is common.

And many times I've pointed out that some moderns are unique or there are only two known. Many many are "rare" by any measure at all.  

 

[cladking]

On 7/11/2023 at 5:20 PM, VKurtB said:

A whole lot of U.S. coins seem “fully priced” to me, and perhaps then some.

I strongly agree but then, of course, there's no reason they can't go much higher.  

Fortunately I haven't desired to collect any of these in a long time.  

[cladking]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:10 PM, World Colonial said:

Your posts demonstrate no knowledge of the TPG populations (for any coins) or even eBay, much less anywhere else

I have relatively little knowledge in this areas but I know what the coins look like.  I really don't care whether there are three or one MS-67 of a given date because this information has no real bearing on what that coin actually looks like in the wild.  It is simply enough to know the range and shape of the curve in which the coins appear using any specific definition for quality.  This is part of the reason I don't track "pops"; the definitions of the grading companies are different than mine.  I don't care how many MS-67 '82 quarters  the services think there are because they grade these with little consideration for strike and die quality.  These coins are tough clean, they are even tough in BU, but the real scarcity lies in quality coins struck by serviceable dies.  

[cladking]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:37 PM, World Colonial said:

since you rely on outdated catalog values when coins sell within a price range and not a fixed value anyway.

No.  I never paid much attention to catalog value since I was a child and used them to deduce the surviving populations.  Now the guides are simple wrong for the US coins and every other world coin made after the elimination of silver from that country's circulating coinage.  Moderns are mostly far scarcer than listing imply.  

Maybe you're relying on prices that were never right.  

 

[cladking]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:37 PM, World Colonial said:

The vast majority of the 2500 51-S nickels graded are MS-64 or better.

Again I referred to "gemmy".  Most coins in MS-64 (especially '51-S) are in no way gemmy.  "Gemmy" means "nearly well struck and mark free".  '51-S nickels are rarely well struck.  For that matter I seriously doubt even many of the MS-65's qualify as "gemmy".  After you eliminate 90% of of the 64's and 20% of the 65's that aren't that many and it's pretty easy for me to imagine a large number of people wanting to collect nice gemmy nickels.  This isn't because 1938 to '64 nickels are such bad quality.  It is because the post-'65 nickels are bad quality.  Some are almost universally bad so collections of nice gemmy coins are affordable and look much nicer than Uncs or BU's.  

 

Most of the '51-S nickels that haven't been submitted look like junk or are charitably called "chBU".  

[VKurtB]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:55 AM, cladking said:

they grade these with little consideration for strike and die quality.

Hmm. Not enough for you and waaaaaaaay too much for Roger the Nick Picker. Can't make ANYBODY happy, I guess.

[zadok]

On 7/12/2023 at 11:30 AM, VKurtB said:

Hmm. Not enough for you and waaaaaaaay too much for Roger the Nick Picker. Can't make ANYBODY happy, I guess.

...yep, this is a disagreement that will never be resolved...WC wants to buy coins based on what he thinks they r worth n not what the market says they r worth n CK wants to compare graded coins to what he thinks the grades should be...these r desires i just dont see happening...the common ground is...yes, modern US coinage sucks in quality n designs n there r no true rarities just census grade rarities...yes, US grading n collecting standards have virtually nothing to do with international collecting standards...yes, the US coin market is intentionally over marketized with dealer's interests given priority over collectors...outside of these relatively ambiguous concerns i dont see where the disagreement lies...personally i thought it was all better when there were just blue folders with holes in them....

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:30 AM, VKurtB said:

Hmm. Not enough for you and waaaaaaaay too much for Roger the Nick Picker. Can't make ANYBODY happy, I guess.

No two people ever agree though sometimes we don't notice.  

I'm a harsh grader with moderns because of the way they are made with too little pressure, using worn dies, on badly aligned presses, and then being marked up badly.  The services overlook a lot of sin because there would be so few Gems if they didn't AND because many collectors are primarily concerned with the coins being free of marks.  To me it doesn't matter if a coin is missing detail because of wear or bad strike, it's still missing detail.  Lots of 1966 quarters essentially left the dies in MS-3 because the lettering and the rim were merged together.  To me it's a shiny AG.   

To each his own.

Older coins were usually well made so counting marks makes much more sense for them.  But even with Morgan dollars I really like coins with star details.  

Indeed, this might be one of the bigger opportunities in numismatics; picking out MS-65 and better slabs with well made coins.  

 

 

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:55 AM, zadok said:

n there r no true rarities just census grade rarities.

No.  There are numerous rare and unique moderns, simply no regular issues that are rare or unique.  

But be this as it may the fact remains many regular issues are exceeding difficult to find in high grade no matter how you define high grade.  

 

There are no MS-67 '76 ikes made yet for instance by PCGS, NGC, or by my standard.  They may not exist.  Many other moderns are very tough well made and mark free.  The common wisdom is that they are as common as grains of sand on the beach but this is not true.  Almost all moderns are far scarcer in every grade than is the common perception.  This goes many times over if you are seeking a nice attractive coin.  

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:55 AM, zadok said:

personally i thought it was all better when there were just blue folders with holes in them....

I kindda agree but once I started collecting BU coins the folders didn't cut it any longer.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/11/2023 at 10:28 PM, J P M said:

 So is it a rare coin ? It is to me.   

Yes, that's how US collectors in the TPG era view it.

I'm not trying to convince anyone not to buy any coin they want to buy.  I'm stating that US collecting is the worst at exaggerating the significance of what most collectors can afford or collect and it's accurate.

There is no absolute definition of rarity or scarcity.  It can only be measured relatively.

Concurrently, under US criteria, somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all coins ever made (hundreds of thousands) are "rare" in some TPG eligible grade.  Everything but a 70 and a low percentage where a slightly lower grade has "many".  For US practiced specializations, probably in the vicinity of 98%, at least.

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 1:24 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Don't you believe that in high grades, even "common" coins should command a premium ?  

Yes, I think "better" coins should sell for a premium over inferior ones.  ("Better" doesn't always coincide with a higher number on a label.)

The price is what it is, whatever it is. My comments have nothing to do with any belief that I should be able to buy a coin for less than current value, since I don't even want most of these coins at all.

My claim is that the price variances often have essentially nothing to do with and are (completely) disproportionate to the quality difference as a collectible.  It's somewhat due to general inflation and a more affluent collector base.  But substantially or mostly for coins above nominal price levels, marketing and/or financialization.  

On 7/12/2023 at 1:24 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The supply in that GRADE is certainly less than a grade 2 or 3 increments lower, right ?   JPM's nickel example from above.

Yes, your description is the usual distribution, something like it.  But see my above comments.

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:43 AM, cladking said:

You call "quality" minutia but other collectors might call things like "historical importance", "date", "country of origin", or even "rarity" minutia.  

I don't call quality differences generically minutia.  I call quality differences reflected in one or a few point increments in a TPG label minutia.  

On 7/12/2023 at 9:43 AM, cladking said:

As I keep saying when most of an issue like '76 Ikes look like garbage right from the mint it is only natural that collectors seek nicer examples. 

I've never disagreed with this claim.

On 7/12/2023 at 9:43 AM, cladking said:

And many times I've pointed out that some moderns are unique or there are only two known. Many many are "rare" by any measure at all.  

Yes, and for US coinage, in every instance it's due to US specialization practices which are seldom or not at all practiced anywhere else for the reason I gave you.

There is nothing unusual in your claim.  I also haven't disputed that prominent US moderns aren't significant by collecting standards.  I disagree with you that what are actually obscure coins have the significance you claim.

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:55 AM, cladking said:

I have relatively little knowledge in this areas but I know what the coins look like.  I really don't care whether there are three or one MS-67 of a given date because this information has no real bearing on what that coin actually looks like in the wild.  It is simply enough to know the range and shape of the curve in which the coins appear using any specific definition for quality.  This is part of the reason I don't track "pops"; the definitions of the grading companies are different than mine.  I don't care how many MS-67 '82 quarters  the services think there are because they grade these with little consideration for strike and die quality.  These coins are tough clean, they are even tough in BU, but the real scarcity lies in quality coins struck by serviceable dies.  

The TPG populations and grading standards matter because that's the coin market's standard.

Your quality standards are exactly that, yours.  No, I'm not using your standards as a baseline for market quality and then agreeing with your subsequent exaggeration that these coins are scarce or rare.

Edited July 12, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:00 AM, cladking said:

No.  I never paid much attention to catalog value since I was a child and used them to deduce the surviving populations.  Now the guides are simple wrong for the US coins and every other world coin made after the elimination of silver from that country's circulating coinage.  

Maybe you're relying on prices that were never right.  

 

I don't rely on price guides, at all.  I've also told you repeatedly that Krause and presumably other non-US price guides are just "made-up".  The South Africa Randburg and Hern editions I own certainly bear no relation to reality.

For US coinage, I have no idea how accurate the Red Book, PCGS, NGC, or Greysheet is either, but I know that no coin sells for a fixed price but a price range.  I've seen it consistently for US moderns on eBay too.  It's somewhat different (as in not exactly identical) coins sold by different sellers to different buyers at different time points.

I've also told you that you have no idea how much most if any of this coinage is actually worth because your posts don't demonstrate that you do.  In your prior examples for world coinage, you have either quoted inaccurate price guides, used isolated outdated examples, or just made the price up.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:00 AM, cladking said:

Moderns are mostly far scarcer than listing imply.  

No, you don't actually know this.

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:13 AM, cladking said:

Most of the '51-S nickels that haven't been submitted look like junk or are charitably called "chBU".  

Doesn't make any difference to my prior posts.  It still doesn't mean that there aren't far more (as in huge multiples to the current TPG counts) outside of a holder versus in one.  The actual number could easily be at least dozens of times the current 2500 graded by NGC and PCGS.  There is no financial incentive to submit coins up to at least MS-65.

[zadok]

On 7/12/2023 at 5:14 PM, cladking said:

No.  There are numerous rare and unique moderns, simply no regular issues that are rare or unique.  

But be this as it may the fact remains many regular issues are exceeding difficult to find in high grade no matter how you define high grade.  

 

There are no MS-67 '76 ikes made yet for instance by PCGS, NGC, or by my standard.  They may not exist.  Many other moderns are very tough well made and mark free.  The common wisdom is that they are as common as grains of sand on the beach but this is not true.  Almost all moderns are far scarcer in every grade than is the common perception.  This goes many times over if you are seeking a nice attractive coin.  

...well, if there r none then by definition they cant be rare just non-existent...i basically agree with WC there r no rare 20th century regular issue coinage... true, coins in certain grades in their particular series may well be scarce n in a few instances rare (5 or less known) but for the most part virtually all 20th century mintages far exceed the potential number of collectors...now, attractive is in the eyes of the beholder n can not be quantified....

[J P M]

On 7/12/2023 at 10:13 AM, cladking said:

Again I referred to "gemmy".  Most coins in MS-64 (especially '51-S) are in no way gemmy.  "Gemmy" means "nearly well struck and mark free".  '51-S nickels are rarely well struck.  For that matter I seriously doubt even many of the MS-65's qualify as "gemmy".  After you eliminate 90% of of the 64's and 20% of the 65's that aren't that many and it's pretty easy for me to imagine a large number of people wanting to collect nice gemmy nickels.  This isn't because 1938 to '64 nickels are such bad quality.  It is because the post-'65 nickels are bad quality.  Some are almost universally bad so collections of nice gemmy coins are affordable and look much nicer than Uncs or BU's.  

 

Most of the '51-S nickels that haven't been submitted look like junk or are charitably called "chBU".  

When I first started the Nickel collection my goal was to put together a war set of MS64 and up. I realized after purchasing a few MS64,65 and 66 there was a dramatic difference in quality 64 and 65 most of the time were not nice coins at all. I will still buy a 64,65 if it is a FS coin or proof like and even below a MS if it is a hard to find coin like my 1943/2. I also found that TPG services do not grade many regular strike nickels in the MS 68,69 and 70 range. Relatively speaking a MS66 nickel can sometimes be like a MS69 would be in other currency. LoL.... So  I raised my standards for my collection of nickels to MS66 and up. I also search for very low prices I try to only pay 30% of the high market suggested retail of NGC or PCGS and that can make my search  a bit tougher. I think all coins are hyped up in price and I may never send a coin in to be graded. I like my raw coins just fine. But in the end all of my graded nickels I have purchased so far are well below the cost of putting them in the holders. Oh and one more thing I forgot to say. I like collecting coins.

Edited July 13, 2023 by J P M

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 6:12 PM, World Colonial said:

In your prior examples for world coinage, you have either quoted inaccurate price guides, used isolated outdated examples, or just made the price up.

Yes.  I'm sure you're right.  I just don't really know when one of my coins is up 1000 fold or really only 100 fold until I actually sell it.  

Until I cash the check it's vaguely distressing.  

[GoldFinger1969]

I think all of us are arguing about 2 sides of the coin....pun intended. 

We can all agree that specialization/marketing/market grading have all created or contributed to a "false scarcity" for certain coins....which combined with the Internet and registry lists....and online auctions....and CAC.....have raised prices in the aggregate and exponentially higher in the top grades. 

But I don't think with the TPG's creation and the Internet this could have been avoided.  The LACK of information 40 years ago and the LACK of communication on a daily basis with fellow coin collectors left a vacuum where downside FRAUD then (overselling junk) has today been replaced with UPSIDE chasing of coins based on specialization and TPG label marketing and the like.  Downside fraud has been reduced...at the cost of creating (exaggerated) pricing to the upside.

Think about it.  There is more communication in a day now on chat boards, social media, the Internet, email...on coins...than than there was 40 years ago in a month, unless there was a big coin show that month .  That leads to higher volumes of activity, knowledge, bidding, and collecting interest than there was 40-50 years ago even though the demands on our time have increased such that outdoor sports and indoor hobbies no longer occupy most of our time as kids/teenagers/young adults like we spent in the 1950's and 1960's.

Edited July 13, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:13 PM, J P M said:

So  I raised my standards for my collection of nickels to MS66 and up. 

On average, how much more are you paying for 66's vs. 65/64's ?

On 7/12/2023 at 8:13 PM, J P M said:

I also search for very low prices I try to only pay 30% of the high market suggested retail of NGC or PCGS and that can make my search  a bit tougher. I think all coins are hyped up in price and I may never send a coin in to be graded. I like my raw coins just fine. But in the end all of my graded nickels I have purchased so far are well below the cost of putting them in the holders. Oh and one more thing I forgot to say. I like collecting coins.

What's happened to your targeted coin prices over the last few years and last few decades ?  And congrats on just liking coins and sticking to your guns and enjoying yourself -- I salute you ! 

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 6:22 PM, zadok said:

...well, if there r none then by definition they cant be rare just non-existent...i basically agree with WC there r no rare 20th century regular issue coinage... true, coins in certain grades in their particular series may well be scarce n in a few instances rare (5 or less known) but for the most part virtually all 20th century mintages far exceed the potential number of collectors...now, attractive is in the eyes of the beholder n can not be quantified....

Why limit it to regular issue?

[World Colonial]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But I don't think with the TPG's creation and the Internet this could have been avoided.  The LACK of information 40 years ago and the LACK of communication on a daily basis with fellow coin collectors left a vacuum where downside FRAUD then (overselling junk) has today been replaced with UPSIDE chasing of coins based on specialization and TPG label marketing and the like.

Think about it.  There is more communication in a day now on chat boards, social media, the Internet, email...on coins...than than there was 40 years ago.  That leads to higher volumes of activity, knowlede, bidding, and collecting interest than there was40-50 years ago even though the demands on our time have increased such that outdoor sports and indoor hobbies no longer occupy most of our time as kids/teenagers/young adults like we spent in the 1950's and 1960's.

My inference is that the internet accounts for much of what I wrote in my earlier posts.

This is what makes most coins so much easier to buy versus the past.  Collectors mostly don't like to collect coins or series with abnormally low availability, but they also often want something of a challenge which is where specialization and collecting by grade label comes in.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/12/2023 at 6:37 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, that's how US collectors in the TPG era view it. I'm not trying to convince anyone not to buy any coin they want to buy.  I'm stating that US collecting is the worst at exaggerating the significance of what most collectors can afford or collect and it's accurate. There is no absolute definition of rarity or scarcity.  It can only be measured relatively. Concurrently, under US criteria, somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all coins ever made (hundreds of thousands) are "rare" in some TPG eligible grade.  Everything but a 70 and a low percentage where a slightly lower grade has "many".  For US practiced specializations, probably in the vicinity of 98%, at least.

But how many coins in the U.S. or globally had virtually ALL of their mintage destroyed and not existing today ?  Probably very few...maybe limited mintage coins and/or those that were not melted down if not made of gold or silver, which most coins were made out of probably most of the time.

I get what you are saying about "rare" and "scarce" but I think it's a matter of semantics.  The 1927-D Saint is a rare coin, only about 7-13 coins are known to survive.  But Saints in the aggregate are NOT scarce so should the 1927-D be called "rare" or "scarce" ?  How about the 1924 Saint....in MS-68 condition ?

Type of coin....year struck...Mint....condition....the more qualifiers or filters you add, the more "rare" something becomes potentially.

[cladking]

On 7/12/2023 at 7:13 PM, J P M said:

When I first started the Nickel collection my goal was to put together a war set of MS64 and up. I realized after purchasing a few MS64,65 and 66 there was a dramatic difference in quality 64 and 65 most of the time were not nice coins at all. I will still buy a 64,65 if it is a FS coin or proof like and even below a MS if it is a hard to find coin like my 1943/2. I also found that TPG services do not grade many regular strike nickels in the MS 68,69 and 70 range. Relatively speaking a MS66 nickel can sometimes be like a MS69 would be in other currency. LoL.... So  I raised my standards for my collection of nickels to MS66 and up. I also search for very low prices I try to only pay 30% of the high market suggested retail of NGC or PCGS and that can make my search  a bit tougher. I think all coins are hyped up in price and I may never send a coin in to be graded. I like my raw coins just fine. But in the end all of my graded nickels I have purchased so far are well below the cost of putting them in the holders. Oh and one more thing I forgot to say. I like collecting coins.

I don't have much experience with graded earlier dates.  I have searched rolls of the early dates so I have some idea of what to expect.  

 

I tend to agree that to consistently get nice coins you need to go MS-66.  Most MS-65's are pretty nice but not consistently.  I like quite a few MS-64's.  In moderns about 20% look good to me.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/12/2023 at 7:22 PM, zadok said:

..i basically agree with WC there r no rare 20th century regular issue coinage... true, coins in certain grades in their particular series may well be scarce n in a few instances rare (5 or less known) but for the most part virtually all 20th century mintages far exceed the potential number of collectors...now, attractive is in the eyes of the beholder n can not be quantified....

1913 Liberty Nickel....1927-D Saint.....must be others with <20 coins in total population, right ?