Crazy Bidding for CAC Morgan 0

[EagleRJO]

I was surfing for some Morgans being auctioned on the GC site and came across one with a "green bean" that I usually just skip right over but happened to notice some crazy bidding. It's an 1893 (P) Morgan Silver Dollar graded XF-45 by NGC with a green CAC sticker. The NGC cert for that specific coin lists the NGC Price Guide Value as $300 (see attached). But the current bid for that coin is now at $505, and the auction doesn't end until tomorrow night!

Sometimes the bean might mean the coin is under-graded, and could get a grade and price bump, but there is no way that's happening.  A middle grade AU would be around $450, but even then, there is no way it would grade out as an AU coin. There is wear of the hair on the obverse as well as wear of the eagle's breast and talons on the reverse. It's just nuts ... N_V_T_S ... nuts!  What is going on here?

[VKurtB]

On 11/12/2022 at 12:38 PM, EagleRJO said:

I was surfing for some Morgans being auctioned on the GC site and came across one with a "green bean" that I usually just skip right over but happened to notice some crazy bidding. It's an 1893 (P) Morgan Silver Dollar graded XF-45 by NGC with a green CAC sticker. The NGC cert for that specific coin lists the NGC Price Guide Value as $300 (see attached). But the current bid for that coin is now at $505, and the auction doesn't end until tomorrow night!

Sometimes the bean might mean the coin is under-graded, and could get a grade and price bump, but there is no way that's happening.  A middle grade AU would be around $450, but even then, there is no way it would grade out as an AU coin. There is wear of the hair on the obverse as well as wear of the eagle's breast and talons on the reverse. It's just nuts ... N_V_T_S ... nuts!  What is going on here?

Supply and demand is going on. Nobody ever said all demand is SMART demand. People act on what they BELIEVE TO BE true, not what IS true. CAC beaned coins trade higher PRIMARILY due to mass delusion. 

[EagleRJO]

I know that some have the mistaken belief that a green bean always means a higher grade, which is why I just skip over them.  But this one just didn't make any sense. Not only is there no shot at the next grade due to obvious wear, even if it did grade a little higher and just slide into an AU it wouldn't be worth what's being bid! NVTS!

[VKurtB]

On 11/12/2022 at 1:02 PM, EagleRJO said:

I know that some have the mistaken belief that a green bean always means a higher grade, which is why I just skip over them.  But this one just didn't make any sense. Not only is there no shot at the next grade due to obvious wear, even if it did grade a little higher and just slide into an AU it wouldn't be worth what's being bid! NVTS!

You’re not wrong. 

[“”]

Great Collections shows similar pricing for the two that auctioned already this year without CAC. PCGS in the same grade have been consistently in the range of $592. to $627. again without the CAC.

[Crawtomatic]

I have not considered the NGC price guide to be current in some time now.  Though, that stands for most price guides published.  Sales history, past & current, is typically a better source of value.  What I find price guides good for is to quickly skim a list and see which items stand out from the rest - they're usually keys, and semi-keys then.

I don't know the Morgan series as much as others but it's possible there's an unattributed VAM involved.  

[EagleRJO]

@Simple Collectorthose are both PCG$ ones where their price guides are complete wacked because PCG$ jacked up values at the huge price spike earlier this year and they haven't come down since.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 3:44 PM, Crawtomatic said:

I don't know the Morgan series as much as others but it's possible there's an unattributed VAM involved.  

I didn't see any recent NGC auctioned ones in that grade recently (PCG$ have been nvts lately with the guide prices, incl those ~$600 ones), but I have been bidding quite a number of Morgans recently and the NGC price guides have been pretty spot on, which is why that one jumped out. You may be right about the possible unattributed VAM which I really didn't look at, but would make sense.

Edited November 12, 2022 by EagleRJO

[“”]

On 11/12/2022 at 3:54 PM, EagleRJO said:

@Simple Collectorthose are both PCG$ ones where their price guides are complete wacked because PCG$ jacked up values at the huge price spike earlier this year and they haven't come down since.

Those are actual auction sales on Great Collections from this year. Not price guides.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:06 PM, Simple Collector said:

Those are actual auction sales on Great Collections from this year. Not price guides.

Yea I know, PCG$ ones where their guide prices for those are jacked up from earlier this year. I try to stick with the NGC slabs like the one posted because of that.

[Crawtomatic]

On 11/12/2022 at 3:06 PM, Simple Collector said:

Those are actual auction sales on Great Collections from this year. Not price guides.

Right.  I was referring more to Eagle who quoted the NGC price guide of $300.

But other than GC, I'd also check eBay & HA for comps.  Maybe even David Lawrence's site to see if they've got a similar item listed retail.  At least on most widget type coins.  If something is especially rare then it's a best guess situation.

[EagleRJO]

I guess ppl could also be looking at the sold PCG$ ones Simple Collector pointed out, even though some of the jacked PCG$ ones haven't really been carrying over to the NGC ones I have been bidding on.

[Crawtomatic]

On 11/12/2022 at 2:54 PM, EagleRJO said:

@Simple Collectorthose are both PCG$ ones where their price guides are complete wacked because PCG$ jacked up values at the huge price spike earlier this year and they haven't come down since.

Oh wait.  Being completely honest here, I've been way more focused on comics & cards the past year just letting the coin collection marinate.  Are you saying there's been a run-up in PCGS prices vs. NGC for the same/similar coins?  I used to watch that kind of thing in the past for good crack & resubmit for profit opportunities.  If there's a wide margin between NGC & PCGS in the same grade some of the bidding could be from crossover potential.

Just checked and yeah, that would be a good candidate coin.  If it crosses for a straight grade you have to be able to stomach a 1 or 2 grade difference.  But not so much when there's a green bean present.  

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:23 PM, Crawtomatic said:

Are you saying there's been a run-up in PCGS prices vs. NGC for the same/similar coins?

Yea, quite a lot of them because of the huge price spike earlier this year. PCG$ jacked guide prices like April/May at the peak of the spike, while NGC held off maybe thinking is was just an unusual spike which it was.  NGC prices have been pretty much holding, but not on this one which I thought was because of the bean. May have been the VAM like you mentioned.

I was thinking about a few crossovers which would straight grade over, but PCG$ is finally waking up and dropping prices so you could get burned.

Edited November 12, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

The one thing I can think of is that this is another pandemic-related buying surge in what is affordable luxury.

The folks bidding on these Morgans or Large Denomination Currency bills can't move up to something like gold coins. They are too expensive ($2,000 and up).  Hence the big % increases for stuff under $1,000.

I'm sure that has something to do with it....HOW much I don't know.  But other Morgans have seen big % increases.

[EagleRJO]

Idk, I think ppl have pretty much wiped their covid slush funds by now and prices, at least for NGCs, have been a lot more reasonable which is why I have been hitting up the GC Morgans a lot lately.

[Coinbuf]

Another reason that you might see some stronger bidding for NGC coins with CAC stickers is there are some folks that are looking to buy NGC coins with CAC stickers and cross them to the new CACG once that is open.   CACG has already said that every coin with a green bean will automatically cross and some will upgrade to a + or perhaps even a full grade.   They feel that removing the NGC holder stigma and placing those coins into the new holder will result in a huge price jump.   Not saying that is the case here as anyone with that motivation would want to get it cheap, but a small wrinkle in the market for NGC/CAC coins.

[VKurtB]

On 11/12/2022 at 5:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

Another reason that you might see some stronger bidding for NGC coins with CAC stickers is there are some folks that are looking to buy NGC coins with CAC stickers and cross them to the new CACG once that is open.   CACG has already said that every coin with a green bean will automatically cross and some will upgrade to a + or perhaps even a full grade.   They feel that removing the NGC holder stigma and placing those coins into the new holder will result in a huge price jump.   Not saying that is the case here as anyone with that motivation would want to get it cheap, but a small wrinkle in the market for NGC/CAC coins.

That is a GREAT speculation. Bravo!

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 6:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

CACG has already said that every coin with a green bean will automatically cross and some will upgrade to a + or perhaps even a full grade.

I'm bidding a lot of coins on GC lately and will keep my eyes open for more of the beaned NGCs, which I usually ignore, and see how they shake out.

Also, from the coins I have been bidding on (Morgans, older half dollars, gold coins, etc.) it seems like the ones that get bid up a good amount more than my target prices are the PCG$ coins where there is a decent gap between the PCG$ and NGC guide prices, even if sold coins don't have that much of a gap. So it looks like some just bid based on guides, which has been my bane lately. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by EagleRJO

[jimbo27]

I would say the price of these coins have really gone up and the one in your post is not out of line. Here are 3 I found on ebay and I realize they are buy it now, but Morgans are going through the roof. Sorry photos not that good.

[J P M]

I have to say some coins will be a lower price on the NGC site if it has not been updated. On the far left of the chart near the date it shows the last updated price. Some coins can be quite old prices.

[EagleRJO]

Yea, I bailed on buying on eBay a while ago because all the ask prices for NGC and PCG$ coins were apparently based on what coins were going for at the peaks of the spike earlier this year. If you look at when they were listed most are stale.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:20 PM, J P M said:

I have to say some coins will be a lower price on the NGC site if it has not been updated. On the far left of the chart near the date it shows the last updated price. Some coins can be quite old prices.

@J P Myou are correct, many of the prices in the NGC guide have not been updated recently. I think part of that was the huge jump in coin prices going into the end of last year and continuing thru earlier this year, which NGC prolly thought was an unusual price rise which it was. PCG$ jacked their guide prices, with there being some significant differences.

Many coins are coming back down, and I am starting to see the PCG$ guide prices adjusted down while NGC prices are just holding steady.  I think there will be a little more of that same pattern as prices continue to drop until NGC might jump in to drop some prices too.

[VKurtB]

If what I’m reading is true, I am done even LOOKING AT Morgan dollars for the foreseeable future. I never buy into a hot segment, no matter what. I will shop for segments that are out of favor only. 

[EagleRJO]

Looks like there is still a decent demand for Morgans, which seems to be dropping off lately. There are also still nutty prices for other coins such as Saints, so I am switching gears there to look for other ones like half eagles, roosters, etc. which I also like.

[Coinbuf]

On 11/12/2022 at 8:16 PM, EagleRJO said:

Looks like there is still a decent demand for Morgans, which seems to be dropping off lately. There are also still nutty prices for other coins such as Saints, so I am switching gears there to look for other ones like half eagles, roosters, etc. which I also like.

One reason for the continued high gold coin prices is that many bought them at the height of the price bubble and are reluctant to sell at a loss.   And gold is just in high demand even now.

[zadok]

On 11/12/2022 at 10:16 PM, EagleRJO said:

Looks like there is still a decent demand for Morgans, which seems to be dropping off lately. There are also still nutty prices for other coins such as Saints, so I am switching gears there to look for other ones like half eagles, roosters, etc. which I also like.

...u wont have much competition on the roosters n other bullion related gold coins...the half eagles, with motto r reasonable, w/o motto not so much...ur best bet would be $10 saints, minimal interest at the moment....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:23 PM, Crawtomatic said:

Are you saying there's been a run-up in PCGS prices vs. NGC for the same/similar coins?  I used to watch that kind of thing in the past for good crack & resubmit for profit opportunities.  If there's a wide margin between NGC & PCGS in the same grade some of the bidding could be from crossover potential.

Unless the gap is very wide...persistent...and nobody else sees it....I think dealing with illiquid items like coins it's tough to arbitrage the difference.  It's not like trying to sell a stock and seeing it sell for 10% higher on another exchange and you can hit the SELL button for either exchange in seconds.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:55 PM, EagleRJO said:

@J P Myou are correct, many of the prices in the NGC guide have not been updated recently. I think part of that was the huge jump in coin prices going into the end of last year and continuing thru earlier this year, which NGC prolly thought was an unusual price rise which it was. PCG$ jacked their guide prices, with there being some significant differences. Many coins are coming back down, and I am starting to see the PCG$ guide prices adjusted down while NGC prices are just holding steady.  I think there will be a little more of that same pattern as prices continue to drop until NGC might jump in to drop some prices too.

I've NEVER found them accurate.  The charts with trendlines going back a few years -- useful for longer-term (3-5 years) price movements.

But for accurate pricing of a few weeks to a few momths ago....up to 1 year....best to see actual completed (auction) sales.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/12/2022 at 10:37 PM, Coinbuf said:

One reason for the continued high gold coin prices is that many bought them at the height of the price bubble and are reluctant to sell at a loss.   And gold is just in high demand even now.

I guess I've never understood this because I've never run a business...but much like a bookie not caring who wins or loses....aren't dealers in numismatics (like bullion dealers) supposed to buy and sell at prevailing MARKET rates ?  If they buy high and sell for a loss it should be offset by the times they bought cheap and sold for a windfall, no ?

No way a bullion dealer could buy gold at $2,050 at the highs in recent years and then try and sell it for that price (plus a markup) when gold fell back to $1,800-$1,900.

Edited November 13, 2022 by GoldFinger1969