Coin Rarity - Coins do not get "more rare" over time 0

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

I was having a conversation at a coin show last week, and a dealer was showing me some of his coins and made the statement, "This coin is definitely going to be one of those rare coins in the future."  I remember it was a W quarter in MS67, and I questioned him on it:

• "Do you mean a conditional rarity?"  He said, "No, but the condition will certainly help."
• "Do you think that many of these will not survive?" He said, "That I don't know, but only 2M were minted."

I told him it was a very nice coin, but in my experience, coins don't get more rare over time.  He asked me how long I had been collecting, and when I answered (3 years), the dealer acted like I lost all credibility.  He basically laughed at me, and at that point I knew I wasn't buying any coins.

I told him that I collect older coins, and I understand the rarity scale (R1-R10).  I told him that in my experience, coins become LESS rare over time.  He just rolled his eyes, and turned away.

I wish I had this chart to show him (but I didn't have it at the ready).  The chart below shows the rarity of half cents in 1960, 1985 and 2017.  It is clear from the chart that as new specimens are found the rarity is going down:

My understanding of rarity is almost exclusively based on EAC coins.  However, I would think this "decreasing rarity over time" could be applied to any series with similar results.  Am I not thinking about this correctly?

[JKK]

It's oversimplified. Some coins will become less rare as examples turn up. Others will become more rare (in some cases specific to condition) with natural disasters, improper storage, just bad luck. He didn't say anything that was basically wrong, though he did make the mistake of alienating a prospective customer. That's one of the big problems with coin collecting and coin clubs: So many of the people one meets are smug, grumpy old cynics who rejoice to have a hobby where they can check their social graces and customer service notions at the door.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

@JKK That makes a lot of sense, and perhaps my view is too myopic. I was just a little puzzled, because the coins I collect had much lower mintages, and many still do not scratch the surface of the true definition of rarity.

I love the W Quarter set, and I have collected a few sets from circulation myself (none MS67).  But, I do not really think any of these coins will get to R-2 (501-1250 known).  There are more coins than this in PCGS/NGC holders for each design today (not to mention all of us sitting here with a circulated set in 2x2 holders).

All that said, your point about becoming more/less rare over time makes a lot of sense, and I could see a "less hoarded" set becoming more rare (especially conditionally) over time.

Edited September 20, 2022 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[Coinbuf]

Hype and tripe, and a very poor choice of coins for the seller to use as his example.   There will be nothing rare (other than a few condition rarities) with regard to the W quarters.   Sure his comment is a half-truth in that many were degraded by the time they spent in circulation, and some will be lost to factors like those JKK noted.   But the continued grade-flation practically guarantees that more high grade modern coins (including W quarters) will continue to be "made" in the future.   I did not bother to check pops but I would assume that currently there are lots of MS67 W quarters already certified.   Plus due to the hype and promotion on these quarters the bulk of the production has been saved, so I do think that rare is not a word that should ever be attached to these.

As history has shown coins that were once thought to be rare can become common overnight, some Morgan dollars were thought to be scarce until bags and bags were discovered in bank vaults cutting prices in half or more.   Hordes are found every now and then which can also change the perception and rarity of some dates.   It is true that truly rare coins can become rarer as coins are lost to attrition or compromised by environmental elements, but I would consider those to be outlier events not the norm.

 

[JKK]

Let's take my 1896 proof Barber half (mintage 762). Rarest coin I own. Survival estimate from PCGS is 675 in all grades. Is it reasonable to suppose that one will get less rare? I am not sure how one could project that. The TPG thinks that maybe 85-90% of them have survived, but every time one gets hairlined (like mine) or otherwise has a calamity, the nicer ones at least get a little rarer. If PCGS is right, the only thing that could make them less rare is the discovery of several dozen that theoretically could be in hiding. I think it far likelier those have been lost, damaged, or otherwise taken out of the population for good. Probably every year another one somewhere becomes a casualty. It's not that all coins become rarer, because as your analysis has shown, some become a little more common. It's that the overall trend is likelier in the direction of rarity.

So I guess the reasonable takeaway is that it probably doesn't make that much sense to buy a coin hoping its rarity could increase within one's life timeframe. It could actually decrease. Brings to mind J.P. Morgan's eternal response to requests for market forecasts: "The market will fluctuate." He was never wrong about that.

[RWB]

Run-of-the-mill coin dealers ....

[Fenntucky Mike]

A W quarter is not rare, not even close, and probably never will be. It will continue to carry a premium over other quarters of the era but not significantly so and average examples will trend down in price, IMO. A condition rarity would need to be 68-69 and that will probably shift to 69 or higher over the near term, next few decades. Short of the U.S. population tripling, thereby increasing demand/number of collectors, and about 1.9MM of these suckers getting melted I just don't see it. 

Some really crazy (bad?) things would need to happen for W quarters to become rare in the next 200 years and tt would probably take a 1000 years of attrition to create a meaningful gap between uncirculated original examples and altered/damaged/circulated coins. Give or take a few hundred years. 

I'd be curious how your chart would translate for the average grade for all types, with pricing adjusted at today's cost? I'm assuming rarity went down and price up over time? 

[J P M]

I am glad this subject has been brought up. I try to keep track of my coins ups and downs I do not have a lot of rare coins but I have some coins that have a higher than normal price range. A example is I have a Jefferson MS65 1954 S DDR FS-801 it is a low mintage but not crazy low.  This coin I think being overpriced anyway was valued at $350 in 2017. It drops a few times. I purchased the coin in June of 2022 it's value is $275 a month later it drops to $225 I get a notice yesterday it dropped to $135. Which is probably what it should have been all along.  I see the highs and lows all the time and it is what it is. So the question is what is making this coin drop? Is it the economy or did someone find a bag of them in the cellar.      

Edited September 20, 2022 by J P M

[zadok]

...reminds me of the 1950-D nickels....

[Sandon]

   I suspect that by "more rare" the dealer meant that the coins would become more expensive over time due to increased demand and possible hoarding.  I have found that the term "rare" is frequently applied to any coin that is popular with collectors, such as 1881-S Morgan dollar of which millions exist, or even to any coin that can't be readily found in pocket change such as a "W" mint quarter.  It can also be used to describe coins with low certified populations or die varieties of which not many have yet been discovered but more eventually are as more collectors look for them.  The Neophyte Numismatists' half cent variety rarity chart is an example of the last category.  

   Under the rarity scale used for die varieties of early U.S. coins employed in the chart, most of the later coins usually described as "rare", such as 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cents, 1916-D "Mercury" dimes, or even 1907 High Relief St. Gaudens double eagles, have populations well in excess of 1,250 pieces and would all be classified as "R1". This scale isn't pertinent to such coins.

   "W" mint quarters that weren't found in uncirculated rolls and bags by those who looked for them will be subject to wear, damage, and loss in the hands of the unknowing general public.  In that sense they will become "rarer".  Many collectors like me have never received one in circulation.  I'm not willing to pay the current premium for them.  There still will be plenty left in most uncirculated grades for those who are willing to pay the price.

[EagleRJO]

Rarieties can change based on events that occur (releases, melting, found hoards) with mintage numbers only being an indicator of rarity, but seems like that dealer just lost a potential customer trying to defend a sales pitch when he got called out on it.

On 9/20/2022 at 6:33 PM, J P M said:

II see the highs and lows all the time and it is what it is. So the question is what is making this coin drop? Is it the economy or did someone find a bag of them in the cellar.      

The prices for coins I have been watching including Morgans, Trade Dollars, early date half dollars, and common date Saints have been coming down also. Prolly a combo of the price spike earlier this year correcting, lower disposable income (pandemic slush funds running out with inflation) and economic fears of a recession constraining discressionary spending. And for the Saints a drop in bullion values also.

Edited September 21, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Oldhoopster]

I agree with @Sandon  The dealer should have said that demand may increase over time for a variety of reasons, but to say that they will increase in rarity is incorrect

 

[RWB]

"Rare" is a function of availability and demand. As several collectors of non-US coins note, there are a considerable quantity of R-7 and R-8 coins for which the demand is so small, they have limited collector premiums. Likewise there are readily available coins in the US series - 1909-S VDB cents, 1912-S nickels, 1893-S dollars and so forth -- that command high prices yet can be found at almost any coin show, small or large.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

Thanks for all the replies, guys.  I like getting all the different perspectives in the room.  Like I said above, my experience is very limited and mostly based on half cent varieties.  So this is good for a more well-rounded education.

Edited September 21, 2022 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[GBrad]

On 9/20/2022 at 8:21 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Thanks for all the replies, guys.  I like getting all the different perspectives in the room.  Like I said above, my experience is very limited and mostly based on half cent varieties.  So this is good for a more well-rounded education.

Great post and question TNN!  I too like the thoughts and opinions on this topic of "future rarity".  I learned something here as well. Thanks for the post.

[VKurtB]

On 9/20/2022 at 7:21 PM, RWB said:

"Rare" is a function of availability and demand. As several collectors of non-US coins note, there are a considerable quantity of R-7 and R-8 coins for which the demand is so small, they have limited collector premiums. Likewise there are readily available coins in the US series - 1909-S VDB cents, 1912-S nickels, 1893-S dollars and so forth -- that command high prices yet can be found at almost any coin show, small or large.

The ANA exhibiting standards deny this. To an ANA judge, rareness does NOT have a demand component whatsoever. It is PURE supply. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

@VKurtB The way you explain it is that way I understood it (leading up to this thread).  My understanding was "rarity" is based on the total volume of available specimens.  Price is based on the demand for said specimens.

@GBrad Thanks for your kind words.  Glad I can contribute a little to the forum (instead of just taking from it).

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[GoldFinger1969]

Known QUANTITIES can not decline over time, only increase. 

But what can happen is that the DEMAND for a particular coin type and/or year or mintmark increase.  That will lead to a rise in price and the notion that what was once plentiful is now scarce.

[VKurtB]

On 9/21/2022 at 2:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Known QUANTITIES can not decline over time, only increase. 

But what can happen is that the DEMAND for a particular coin type and/or year or mintmark increase.  That will lead to a rise in price and the notion that what was once plentiful is now scarce.

It depends on what type of coin. Decent coins from circulation of the 1970’s era WILL get rarer. That is indisputable. If there are new “older coin” varieties still waiting to be found, they get rarer by condition with every passing year. That which people know to collect seldom gets rarer. 

[Conder101]

On 9/20/2022 at 7:42 PM, Sandon said:

 I suspect that by "more rare" the dealer meant that the coins would become more expensive over time due to increased demand and possible hoarding. 

That is probably true.  A LOT of people confuse rarity and value.  They will consider that if the price goes up it got "rarer"

 

On 9/20/2022 at 7:42 PM, Sandon said:

Under the rarity scale used for die varieties of early U.S. coins employed in the chart, most of the later coins usually described as "rare", such as 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cents, 1916-D "Mercury" dimes, or even 1907 High Relief St. Gaudens double eagles, have populations well in excess of 1,250 pieces and would all be classified as "R1". This scale isn't pertinent to such coins.

The scale is still pertinent, an SVDB is still an R-1+ coin.  There are a LOT of them around  But there are also a LOT more collectors of Lincoln cents than of half cents, so that R-1+ coin is expensive.  I suppose you could try to come up with a rarity scale that would apply to Lincolns but I have no idea how you would quantify it.  You could use the Universal Rarity Scale but there would be no way to come up with reasonable survivor figures for the scale.

 

On 9/20/2022 at 8:21 PM, RWB said:

"Rare" is a function of availability and demand.

Price is a function of availability and demand, rare is more of an absolute and is dependent on survivorship.  But you are correct, if the demand isn't there even extremely rare pieces aren't worth much.  I would assume your putting rare in quote equates to the average person confusion of rarity and value.

[Tim72501]

In Coins, Mintage ,Error or ,, Condition raise the Rarity Value.  Some high grades are'nt know put away.