GreatCollections 0

[124Spider]

Hi,

I have reached the stage where many of the coins I really want are expensive (to me, "expensive" means a few hundred dollars up to many thousands of dollars).  Until now, I've bought the expensive coins at reputable dealers, certified by PCGS, NGC or ANACS.

But it appears to me that auction prices are lower than retail prices (presumably because dealers get their coins at auction).

So I'm considering trying GreatCollections and the other high-end auction sites.

Is this safe (their photos aren't very good, and I like to see a good photo of an expensive coin before buying it)?  Also, are auction prices often significantly below retail prices at dealers (yes, I understand that I determine how much I'm willing to pay, by putting an upper limit on how much I bid, but I'm curious if the hammer price typically is lower)?

Thanks.

Mark

[zadok]

...emphatic no!.....not recently...

[MarkFeld]

Regardless of which auction company you buy though, some coins go for less than (whatever you mean by) “retail”, while others bring more. And both dealers and collectors are buyers. Lastly, if there’s a buyer’s premium added to the winning hammer bid, it’s pointless to look at just the winning hammer bid, when making comparisons with “retail” prices.

 

[124Spider]

Ok, thanks.  I'll just look at them as another reasonable way to buy coins, as long as I remember the buyer's premium, and don't get caught up in "winning" the auction.

Thanks!

[Walkerfan]

GC, HA and other major sites are VERY safe.

Hammer price is dependent on MANY factors. 

I only collect quality coins and have gotten great bargains but have, likewise, been buried, as the result of a bidding war. 

If it's a coin that you won't likely see again, then stretching for it is advisable.  

If it is EXPENSIVE but not RARE (i.e. 1909-S VDB Cent, 1938-D WLH, etc.), then I'd back off and try another example, in the future, if you feel you might be overpaying.  Do your research!!

Dealers get coins from MANY sources, not just auction sites.  

Just use your own discretion.  

[124Spider]

On 10/23/2021 at 11:30 AM, Walkerfan said:

GC, HA and other major sites are VERY safe.

Hammer price is dependent on MANY factors. 

I only collect quality coins and have gotten great bargains but have, likewise, been buried, as the result of a bidding war. 

If it's a coin that you won't likely see again, then stretching for it is advisable.  

If it is EXPENSIVE but not RARE (i.e. 1909-S VDB Cent, 1938-D WLH, etc.), then I'd back off and try another example, in the future, if you feel you might be overpaying.  Do your research!!

Dealers get coins from MANY sources, not just auction sites.  

Just use your own discretion.  

Thanks; this is VERY helpful.

At this stage I'm only buying expensive, but not rare, coins (think, e.g., Morgan dollars not minted in Philadelphia or San Francisco in 1895).  Someday, I'll be looking for a 1916 Standing Liberty quarter, and I'll be more ready to overspend to get the coin I want (as I was when I bought a 1918/7-D buffalo nickel in VF35 condition--CAC approved, even--after a long search).  And, yes, I've done enough research, and recorded it, to know what each coin I'm interested in costs at various coin shops, in what condition.  So I know what I'm willing to pay.

[Walkerfan]

On 10/23/2021 at 2:37 PM, 124Spider said:

Thanks; this is VERY helpful.

At this stage I'm only buying expensive, but not rare, coins (think, e.g., Morgan dollars not minted in Philadelphia or San Francisco in 1895).  Someday, I'll be looking for a 1916 Standing Liberty quarter, and I'll be more ready to overspend to get the coin I want (as I was when I bought a 1918/7-D buffalo nickel in VF35 condition--CAC approved, even--after a long search).  And, yes, I've done enough research, and recorded it, to know what each coin I'm interested in costs at various coin shops, in what condition.  So I know what I'm willing to pay.

Sounds great!  Glad that I was able to help.  I’m also glad that you have a good plan and have done your research.    I like Standing liberty quarters, too.  The 1916 is a great issue and I suggest that you look for one with the full head, as the price difference is only a little bit more.  Don’t worry—that coin is not on my radar, right now, so I won’t be competing with you.  😉

[124Spider]

On 10/23/2021 at 11:57 AM, Walkerfan said:

Sounds great!  Glad that I was able to help.  I’m also glad that you have a good plan and have done your research.    I like Standing liberty quarters, too.  The 1916 is a great issue and I suggest that you look for one with the full head, as the price difference is only a little bit more.  Don’t worry—that coin is not on my radar, right now, so I won’t be competing with you.  😉

I'm only comfortable buying one "expensive" coin a month, so I have lots of time to do plenty of research, to know what the next target is to be.  I find, oddly, that the chase is almost as much fun as the capture.

[Walkerfan]

On 10/23/2021 at 3:17 PM, 124Spider said:

I'm only comfortable buying one "expensive" coin a month, so I have lots of time to do plenty of research, to know what the next target is to be.  I find, oddly, that the chase is almost as much fun as the capture.

I don’t like the chase, anymore.  You never know when the right coin will come along, so when it does, you must be prepared.  I’ve gone a year without buying a significant coin but have, also, bought multiples in a month or two.  You just never know…

[124Spider]

On 10/23/2021 at 12:29 PM, Walkerfan said:

I don’t like the chase, anymore.  You never know when the right coin will come along, so when it does, you must be prepared.  I’ve gone a year without buying a significant coin but have, also, bought multiples in a month or two.  You just never know…

Yeah, when you're talking rare coins, I agree.  Right now, I'm just chasing non-rare coins that cost a lot of money; I'm confident that they're available whenever I care to buy, and that there are enough of them that the market is fairly steady.

I have chased a few rare coins (e.g., the fairly high-grade buffalo nickel I mentioned earlier), and I do strike when I find what I'm looking for.

But I am a bit mystified as to why some very expensive coins aren't rare (e.g., semi-key date Morgan dollars), and some fairly rare coins aren't so very expensive (fairly high-grade 1942/41 Mercury dimes).

[Walkerfan]

On 10/23/2021 at 3:36 PM, 124Spider said:

Yeah, when you're talking rare coins, I agree.  Right now, I'm just chasing non-rare coins that cost a lot of money; I'm confident that they're available whenever I care to buy, and that there are enough of them that the market is fairly steady.

I have chased a few rare coins (e.g., the fairly high-grade buffalo nickel I mentioned earlier), and I do strike when I find what I'm looking for.

But I am a bit mystified as to why some very expensive coins aren't rare (e.g., semi-key date Morgan dollars), and some fairly rare coins aren't so very expensive (fairly high-grade 1942/41 Mercury dimes).

The semi-key date Morgans were usually saved, in decent numbers, when compared to other series, either by collectors or by the government.  What makes them rare is the demand versus the supply, as there are a large number of Morgan collectors and not enough coins to go around.

[124Spider]

On 10/23/2021 at 12:59 PM, Walkerfan said:

The semi-key date Morgans were usually saved, in decent numbers, when compared to other series, either by collectors or by the government.  What makes them rare is the demand versus the supply, as there are a large number of Morgan collectors and not enough coins to go around.

To me, "rare" implies "difficult to find," not just expensive.  If I wanted to buy a 1916 standing Liberty quarter in XF40, I would have to look long and hard for one for sale (typically); that's "rare," to me.

OTOH, a coin like the 1889-CC Morgan dollar is quite expensive, but readily available in most any condition (short of top pop, of course).

Perhaps it's as simple as there are very few 1916 standing Liberty quarters, in absolute numbers, and, even though there are few people looking for them, the demand always outstrips the supply (because there are so few of them).  So it's "rare."  But there are lots and lots of the semi-key date Morgans, whose prices are kept up by strong demand, but there's always a ready supply because there are so many of them.  Not "rare," as I think of the term, but "expensive" because of market forces.

[VKurtB]

On 10/23/2021 at 1:18 PM, 124Spider said:

Ok, thanks.  I'll just look at them as another reasonable way to buy coins, as long as I remember the buyer's premium, and don't get caught up in "winning" the auction.

Thanks!

Not getting caught up on “winning” is THE key to buying at auction. Not everyone can carry it off. “Let it go” is NOT just a Frozen song.

[124Spider]

On 10/23/2021 at 1:25 PM, VKurtB said:

Not getting caught up on “winning” is THE key to buying at auction. Not everyone can carry it off. “Let it go” is NOT just a Frozen song.

Agreed.  But I've generally been pretty good at deciding before I engage in an auction how much I'm willing to pay, and stepping off when it gets higher than that.

[Walkerfan]

On 10/23/2021 at 4:25 PM, 124Spider said:

To me, "rare" implies "difficult to find," not just expensive.  If I wanted to buy a 1916 standing Liberty quarter in XF40, I would have to look long and hard for one for sale (typically); that's "rare," to me.

OTOH, a coin like the 1889-CC Morgan dollar is quite expensive, but readily available in most any condition (short of top pop, of course).

Perhaps it's as simple as there are very few 1916 standing Liberty quarters, in absolute numbers, and, even though there are few people looking for them, the demand always outstrips the supply (because there are so few of them).  So it's "rare."  But there are lots and lots of the semi-key date Morgans, whose prices are kept up by strong demand, but there's always a ready supply because there are so many of them.  Not "rare," as I think of the term, but "expensive" because of market forces.

That’s correct.  1916 standing liberty quarter is far more available in mint state than it is XF.  So yes, it is only expensive, in mint state, but it is truly rare in extremely fine.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 10/23/2021 at 12:39 PM, 124Spider said:

Also, are auction prices often significantly below retail prices at dealers (yes, I understand that I determine how much I'm willing to pay, by putting an upper limit on how much I bid, but I'm curious if the hammer price typically is lower)?

No..

This may not be entirely helpful to you, since you're looking for U.S. coins but I've had better luck at finding material through smaller U.S. auction houses and overseas. I've just watched a banknote I've been tracking, being sold at a large U.S. firm, go for double the previous selling prices for the same note in identical grade over the past year. High-end auction houses can mean higher prices, broaden your search beyond the typical and be patient.

[Coinbuf]

Just to add to much of what has been said, all the major auction sites are completely safe, I have used GC for both buying and selling and have bought lots from Stacks, and Heritage with no issues ever.    To be honest the photos of all the auction houses could be better, my suggestion is to buy a low value item from one or two of the auction firms.   That way you can see a lot in hand and compare what you see to the photos, I consider this part of the research process.

Be very critical, scour the photos looking for any microscopic thing that looks off.   I am not aware of any auction house that actively deceives but they do at times embellish so do not just rely on the description, be a detective and look for any previous auction history of any coin you are interested in.   If a coin has been auctioned by a different auction house previously there may be photos from that previous auction that you can compare to a current one.

In the past auctions were a way to get coins at a discount sometimes, today by the time you add in the buyer fees and shipping you are often very close to retail.   But every now and then you find a lot that flies under the radar and good deals can still be found via the auction route.   Auctions are a great resource as long as you do your research and control yourself so you do not get caught up in a bidding war unless it is a coin you just must have.

[GoldFinger1969]

 

On 10/23/2021 at 2:18 PM, 124Spider said:

Ok, thanks.  I'll just look at them as another reasonable way to buy coins, as long as I remember the buyer's premium, and don't get caught up in "winning" the auction.  Thanks!

I have bought from GC and found the pictures very good (not as good as HA's but still closer to them than Ebay)....pricing can be higher or lower than HA or retail.

I do find their archives and current bidding activity to be representative of true market values as you see numerous bids on many popular coins, like the Saint-Gaudens series I track. 

Edited October 24, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/23/2021 at 6:10 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I've just watched a banknote I've been tracking, being sold at a large U.S. firm, go for double the previous selling prices for the same note in identical grade over the past year. High-end auction houses can mean higher prices, broaden your search beyond the typical and be patient.

That could just be the market, not the venue where it was sold/bought.

We've seen an explosion in activity since Covid-19 with rising prices as new entrants jack up the actual prices on some coins and currency...and even when they go for lower-graded stuff, that puts a floor (a RISING floor) on higher-quality stuff.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 10/23/2021 at 11:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That could just be the market, not the venue where it was sold/bought.

Very possible, and you're correct with rising prices, but double previous selling prices for a note with a VERY small collector base, idk.  I'm going to chalk up the price increase to the "Heritage Effect",  the next time the note comes up for auction we'll see if the last sell price holds. I hope not! 

[124Spider]

On 10/24/2021 at 5:51 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Very possible, and you're correct with rising prices, but double previous selling prices for a note with a VERY small collector base, idk.  I'm going to chalk up the price increase to the "Heritage Effect",  the next time the note comes up for auction we'll see if the last sell price holds. I hope not! 

Also, of course, a peculiar effect of auctions is that it only takes two to tango.  If there were two well-heeled bidders at that particular auction, both more focused on "winning" than on the price, funny things can happen.

[VKurtB]

On 10/24/2021 at 11:57 AM, 124Spider said:

Also, of course, a peculiar effect of auctions is that it only takes two to tango.  If there were two well-heeled bidders at that particular auction, both more focused on "winning" than on the price, funny things can happen.

Yes, “reading the room” is important at local in-person auctions. Often, one type of material is “hot” and other things can be gotten for a steal. I’ve built most of my Large Cent collection at auctions when silver was going nuts.

[World Colonial]

On 10/23/2021 at 3:36 PM, 124Spider said:

But I am a bit mystified as to why some very expensive coins aren't rare (e.g., semi-key date Morgan dollars), and some fairly rare coins aren't so very expensive (fairly high-grade 1942/41 Mercury dimes).

None of the coins you have listed are rare, though US collecting uses qualifiers such as TPG label, CAC sticker, and specialization in its definition of "rarity" and "scarcity".

All Morgan dollars are common because the coins did not circulate as widely as lower denominations ($1 was a lot of money for most people at the time), the mintages were not low (no, 100,000 for the 1893-S is not "low"), and a large number were stored for decades by the government. 

A coin like the 42/41 dime isn't really "fairly rare".  It's a die variety which happens to have high demand due to inclusion in price guides, TPG registry sets, and albums.  Compared to other die varieties generally even from comparably dated US coinage, it isn't scarce.  Comparing it to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison.

Generically, coins are relatively rare or scarce due to the mintage and the number of (roughly) contemporary collectors who saved it.  There are (and were) a large number of US and European collectors, so these coins tend to be more common.  Quality of survival is more of a random event as in the past, what passes as one or multiple point increments in TPG labels wasn't usually (if at all) important.  Similar idea at one point for mint marks and specialization.

[124Spider]

On 10/25/2021 at 8:51 AM, World Colonial said:

None of the coins you have listed are rare, though US collecting uses qualifiers such as TPG label, CAC sticker, and specialization in its definition of "rarity" and "scarcity".

All Morgan dollars are common because the coins did not circulate as widely as lower denominations ($1 was a lot of money for most people at the time), the mintages were not low (no, 100,000 for the 1893-S is not "low"), and a large number were stored for decades by the government. 

A coin like the 42/41 dime isn't really "fairly rare".  It's a die variety which happens to have high demand due to inclusion in price guides, TPG registry sets, and albums.  Compared to other die varieties generally even from comparably dated US coinage, it isn't scarce.  Comparing it to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison.

Generically, coins are relatively rare or scarce due to the mintage and the number of (roughly) contemporary collectors who saved it.  There are (and were) a large number of US and European collectors, so these coins tend to be more common.  Quality of survival is more of a random event as in the past, what passes as one or multiple point increments in TPG labels wasn't usually (if at all) important.  Similar idea at one point for mint marks and specialization.

I'm not sure about "All Morgan dollars are common."  There were only 880 1895 Morgans released by the Philadelphia mint, all proofs.  They are rare by any standard.  Add to that the fact that Morgans are a very popular series to collect, and that coin is included in all albums, and I think you end up with "rare by any standard."  And the 1893-S certainly is rare in mint state.

And I question (only on general principles) the statement "Comparing it [1942/41] to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison."  It seems to me that a reasonable definition of "rare" for coins involves some combination of number made, survival rate and demand, independent of whether it is a "standard issue" or not.

To me, "rare" means that the date/variety/mint mark/condition I'm looking for is difficult to find anywhere.  To me, there can be condition rarity of a coin that is not "rare" in other conditions.

Mark

[World Colonial]

On 10/25/2021 at 12:49 PM, 124Spider said:

I'm not sure about "All Morgan dollars are common."  There were only 880 1895 Morgans released by the Philadelphia mint, all proofs.  They are rare by any standard.  Add to that the fact that Morgans are a very popular series to collect, and that coin is included in all albums, and I think you end up with "rare by any standard."  And the 1893-S certainly is rare in mint state.

The 1895 is a proof but it's not rare either.  It's not rare compared to other contemporary proofs and anyone can buy it any day of the week.  Popularity is independent of rarity.  That's demand.  I believe Coin Facts estimates between 50-60 MS 93-S.  It's rare by US standards but not otherwise.  There are a huge number of coins with similar or lower number, including probably most US dated earlier than this coin.

On 10/25/2021 at 12:49 PM, 124Spider said:

And I question (only on general principles) the statement "Comparing it [1942/41] to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison."  It seems to me that a reasonable definition of "rare" for coins involves some combination of number made, survival rate and demand, independent of whether it is a "standard issue" or not.

There must be over 250,000 coins ever made, at minimum: date, denomination, mint mark, design, origin.  Practically all have varieties.  I'd guess that a Judd R-5 with 31-75 survivors is the norm with predominantly US and European coinage as outliers, mostly from 1850's onward.  So at least several million die varieties where the vast majority are probably rare by most US collectors' definition.

Demand may explain why a coin is more or less available and easier or more difficult to buy given the same approximate survival, but that's almost always due to price.

The reason I provided my prior comments is that you seem somewhat mystified by the current market value of this coin.  Is it really underpriced given what it actually is as a collectible and what I am telling you?  It's not scarce, anyone can buy it except in the (near) highest grades at any time, and there are plenty of other coins which most collectors consider a lot more interesting. 

I'd call it one of the most overpriced coins on the planet and not relatively cheap even compared to other comparably priced US coins either.  I hold the same opinion for every single one of the common most widely collected US key dates.

I expect most if not every single one of these coins to be (big) proportional financial losers in the coming decades.  Outlier prices due to prior communication limitations which remain completely detached from the collectible merits. 

It won't matter to most reading my post (absent "unexpected" economic changes) but take a look at the long term price history of Lincoln key date cents.  That's what happened to every one I checked except the 55DDO, adjusted for price changes.

[zadok]

On 10/25/2021 at 12:49 PM, 124Spider said:

I'm not sure about "All Morgan dollars are common."  There were only 880 1895 Morgans released by the Philadelphia mint, all proofs.  They are rare by any standard.  Add to that the fact that Morgans are a very popular series to collect, and that coin is included in all albums, and I think you end up with "rare by any standard."  And the 1893-S certainly is rare in mint state.

And I question (only on general principles) the statement "Comparing it [1942/41] to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison."  It seems to me that a reasonable definition of "rare" for coins involves some combination of number made, survival rate and demand, independent of whether it is a "standard issue" or not.

To me, "rare" means that the date/variety/mint mark/condition I'm looking for is difficult to find anywhere.  To me, there can be condition rarity of a coin that is not "rare" in other conditions.

Mark

..."scarce" or diff to find mite be a better choice of word(s) to use in this regard....virtually no US modern coin (20th-21st cent) is truly "rare" by coin standards....it is true however that certain coins in certain grades r extremely scarce...some varieties excepted.....

[World Colonial]

On 10/25/2021 at 2:26 PM, zadok said:

..."scarce" or diff to find mite be a better choice of word(s) to use in this regard....

The only Morgan dollars which are actually rare as a date/MM are branch mint proofs.  Otherwise, as VAMs, in grade or PL/DPL/DMPL.  Without even looking, I know I can literally complete the entire proof series by date tomorrow or even on eBay right now.  Probably buy each one up to a PR-65. 

I don't remember the mintages for all offhand but recall from about 600 to slightly over 1000.  Probably between 300 to 500 for each date (at minimum) remain.  When I have looked in the Heritage archives, seems each one sells about 10/year and I'd guess at least 10% of the survivors (around 30-50) of each date sell every year somewhere.

The 93-S in MS, yes it's somewhat harder to buy.  Not sure I can find one all the time but it still can almost certainly be bought in a "few" months or slightly longer at most.  (Sooner with the right dealer connections.)  The rest in MS would only be "difficult" when applying very narrow criteria, like the 86-O in 65 or 66 (three or four combined last I checked) while over 300 are recorded in the combined pop to my recollection (some duplicates) in MS-64.

Edited October 26, 2021 by World Colonial

[zadok]

On 10/25/2021 at 9:24 PM, World Colonial said:

The only Morgan dollars which are actually rare as a date/MM are branch mint proofs.  Otherwise, as VAMs, in grade or PL/DPL/DMPL.  Without even looking, I know I can literally complete the entire proof series by date tomorrow or even on eBay right now.  Probably buy each one up to a PR-65. 

I don't remember the mintages for all offhand but recall from about 600 to slightly over 1000.  Probably between 300 to 500 for each date (at minimum) remain.  When I have looked in the Heritage archives, seems each one sells about 10/year and I'd guess at least 10% of the survivors (around 30-50) of each date sell every year somewhere.

The 93-S in MS, yes it's somewhat harder to buy.  Not sure I can find one all the time but it still can almost certainly be bought in a "few" months or slightly longer at most.  (Sooner with the right dealer connections.)  The rest in MS would only be "difficult" when applying very narrow criteria, like the 86-O in 65 or 66 (three or four combined last I checked) while over 300 are recorded in the combined pop to my recollection (some duplicates).

...reinforced my previous comments on modern (20th-21st cent) coins re not being "rare"...not exactly sure if u meant to say morgan branch mint proofs? perhaps u meant branch mint proof like morgans?...

[VKurtB]

This is SLIGHTLY related to the current controversy in competitive exhibiting. (Not registry sets - that’s unrelated) The current standards use the R scale to determine a rarity score (1-10). It is almost IMPOSSIBLE for a U.S. Coins exhibit to EVER score above a 2 or 3 on a scale of 1-10. The guy who made his reputation exhibiting Lincoln Cent Matte Proofs by die state (!!!!!) (complete) was getting 2’s and 3’s for rarity and he was losing his mind. He was confusing rarity with affordability. His stuff was ridiculously expensive, but in the R scale, not really rare per se. The guy had well over half a million dollars invested, most of them finest known grades, or one away, but technically they are not rare. His “condition” scores were top notch, but not “rarity”.

These days, it’s tough to score a 80 on a scale of 100 in U.S. Coins. High 70’s is impressive. I won the “best judge” (shorthand) award and the YN Best in Show scored a 72 on my sheet. Old school judges are having their heads implode over this.

I am up for recertification at FUN this January because I was initially certified at FUN in 2017. (The terrorist attack at Ft. Lauderdale Airport FUN show.) 5 years and my “ticket” is up for renewal.

By the way, the Mac Daddy of Matte Proof Lincolns (the guy above) sold off his stuff through Angel Dee’s, and some killer MPL’s are out there. He’s taken up Matte Proof Buffaloes as a substitute. I expect to see some serious excellence exhibited. Check out the exhibits at ANA summer shows if you want to see what Matte Proof Buffs are supposed to look like.

Edited October 26, 2021 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 10/25/2021 at 10:19 PM, zadok said:

...reinforced my previous comments on modern (20th-21st cent) coins re not being "rare"...not exactly sure if u meant to say morgan branch mint proofs? perhaps u meant branch mint proof like morgans?...

yes, that's the one.  PL not proof.