Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[GoldFinger1969]

1932 Double Eagle:  I've read that the Spencer Marsh Hoard (he was a bank executive in Newark) of 50 1932 Saints provides many of the high-quality coins today.  OTOH, I read something that because he had purchased directly from the Mint/Treasury, they were able to retrieve the coins after FDR's edict went into effect.

How to reconcile those 2 contrasting positions ?  Maybe he gave small quantities under the 5 coin limit away ?

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Denver Mint "Weak" Strikes:  "The general policy at the Denver Mint in the 1920s was to extend die life. Doing so meant greater space between the dies when they were placed in the coining press, or perhaps a lower striking pressure, or both. Dies also remained in service long past their intended life, so many coins show extensive die wear that is uncommon on Philadelphia Mint coins. The result is a general lack of sharpness and blurry details, consistent through the various years and denominations, including the 1924-D double eagle."  

[RWB]

On 7/3/2023 at 3:14 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Doing so meant greater space between the dies when they were placed in the coining press, or perhaps a lower striking pressure, or both.

Striking pressure was determined by the spacing of dies in a toggle press. This was done using a pair of adjustable wedges between the upper die stake and the die chuck.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/3/2023 at 5:26 PM, RWB said:

Striking pressure was determined by the spacing of dies in a toggle press. This was done using a pair of adjustable wedges between the upper die stake and the die chuck.

So I take it you agree with that Heritage commentary ?  Also, how far in distance are we talking about when they talk of increasing the space between the dies (I presume obverse/reverse) ?  They mean the distance before struck, or when struck ? 

We talking fractions of a millimeter....a few microns....what ?

[Henri Charriere]

[In the same manner I would reject some coins out of hand within a series with a dismissive, "I don't like them," unable to articulate exactly why, I thank two members for taking the time and trouble to do so for me: @cladking for painstakingly illustrating why I did not care for the earliest (post-silver years) clad Washington quarters, he deemed to be worthy innovations, and now both @RWB and @GoldFinger1969 for bringing to my attention something I never suspected, i.e., "weak" strikes adjustible "wedges," and die "chucks" which, being from a big city, I assume to be a type of woodchuck.  🤣

Man, I love this place!

[GoldFinger1969]

DEs vs. Gold Certificates:  Something I thought about and haven't read anywhere, not sure if a gold coin or gold currency expert would know....when the DEs were struck, was the Mint instructed by Treasury that a certain amount was earmarked to back GCs and thus should not be released into circulation and/or used for export ?

 

[RWB]

On 7/4/2023 at 12:33 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

DEs vs. Gold Certificates:  Something I thought about and haven't read anywhere, not sure if a gold coin or gold currency expert would know....when the DEs were struck, was the Mint instructed by Treasury that a certain amount was earmarked to back GCs and thus should not be released into circulation and/or used for export ?

 

Law required a certain percentage of total gold deposits to be struck into coins. These were the backing for gold certificates. The certificates were essentially "warehouse receipts" redeemable on demand. All of this was calculated before striking coins. Coining cost money and the less that was done the better. This is one of the underappreciated effects of circulating gold coinage and so-called gold exchange standards.

[RWB]

On 7/3/2023 at 8:19 PM, Henri Charriere said:

bringing to my attention something I never suspected, i.e., "weak" strikes adjustible "wedges," and die "chucks"

If you will buy or borrow a copy of From Mint to Mint these things are discussed and illustrated there. Also look in JNR Issue #1 which discusses and illustrates ate 19th century toggle press from Ferrachute Co.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/4/2023 at 1:43 PM, RWB said:

If you will buy or borrow a copy of From Mint to Mint these things are discussed and illustrated there. Also look in JNR Issue #1 which discusses and illustrates ate 19th century toggle press from Ferrachute Co.

I'm going to re-read FMTM later this summer.  Should understand alot more with all the posts I have read in the years since I got the book.

Re-reading a book a 2nd time really does provide you with lots more knowledge, especially if it's a difficult subject.

[GoldFinger1969]

The "Scarce" 1927 Saint:  I didn't know that at one time the 1927 Saint was actually pretty scarce (not rare, SCARCE ).  Not at all like its Denver or SanFran cousins, but not known to be so plentiful as today in MS-66 and below.  Note how the hoards apparently were a trickle in the 1950's (quarterly or less frequently) and 20 years later in the 1970's it's a floodgate of 1927's hitting the market as firms like Paramount brought dozens or hundreds over monthly).  The 1927 in MS-66 and below is considered a common or generic Saint today.  The rise in the market price of gold compared to the fixed price no doubt helped flush out the coins 50-55 years ago.

This is from Heritage: 

"....An examination of pre-1960 auction listings is instructive; the earliest auction record in the David Akers United States Gold Coins reference, the 1941 Dunham Collection sold by B. Max Mehl, is listed in the catalog as "very scarce," and Stack's used an identical phrase to describe the issue in 1944 for the J.F. Bell auction catalog. The impact of 1960s repatriation is especially noticeable in the auction records compiled by Akers: The trickle of auction appearances in the 1940's and 1950s, fewer than one a year for each decade, turns into a steady stream through the 1960s and then a torrent in the 1970s."

Edited July 5, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

On 7/5/2023 at 3:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

"....An examination of pre-1960 auction listings is instructive; the earliest auction record in the David Akers United States Gold Coins reference, the 1941 Dunham Collection sold by B. Max Mehl, is listed in the catalog as "very scarce," and Stack's used an identical phrase to describe the issue in 1944 for the J.F. Bell auction catalog. The impact of 1960s repatriation is especially noticeable in the auction records compiled by Akers: The trickle of auction appearances in the 1940's and 1950s, fewer than one a year for each decade, turns into a steady stream through the 1960s and then a torrent in the 1970s."

It is also possible that the coins were simply not being consigned. I occasionally feel that "repatriation" used to be a cataloger's excuse for "not bothering to look more deeply." When writing descriptions for these things a little copy-cat fills a lot of space.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/5/2023 at 5:05 PM, RWB said:

It is also possible that the coins were simply not being consigned. I occasionally feel that "repatriation" used to be a cataloger's excuse for "not bothering to look more deeply." When writing descriptions for these things a little copy-cat fills a lot of space.

Can't argue with you.  But it IS interesting to compare the volume of what are common coins today in the 1950's vs. 1970's.  Alot happened as the gold standard came under pressue, the market value of gold went above the quoted price, dollars were dumped by some countries (i.e., France), etc.

Also, of course, while coin collecting was popular and growing, GOLD coin collecting was a very upscale niche that as today has a minority of all coin collectors.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/5/2023 at 5:05 PM, RWB said:

It is also possible that the coins were simply not being consigned. I occasionally feel that "repatriation" used to be a cataloger's excuse for "not bothering to look more deeply." When writing descriptions for these things a little copy-cat fills a lot of space.

It's also fair to ask what flushed the coins out beginning in the 1970's. 

Well, for starters, the price of gold made a HUGE increase and folks who had something worth $35-$60 suddenly had something worth $500-$750.  Also, you had the 1st Generation of holders of those coins get up there in age or pass them down to their family members who decided to part with them.

Changing demographics played a big part....legalization of gold...and the runup in the price of gold coins.  Add in the end of fixed exchange rates in 1971 and it really was a decade of Once-In-A-Lifetime changes.  I wonder how many knew it at the time (I didn't, but then again, I was only 10 or 11 ).

Edited July 7, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Double eagles were about $42-48 during and after WW-II. They hit about $55 in the early 1970s - I bought some from Switzerland back then. (Mangy, dirty, lightly circulated.) It was the late 1980s before gold spot prices pushed DE upward.

Appearance of coins from Europe was based on several factors including economic stability and banker willingness to take a profit, changes in French and Belgian law that altered when a bank/custodian could declare custody items abandoned also were a factor. Two or three US dealers also realized that some pricey coins were mixed with the common stuff and bought all they could to cherry pick. (The US collector market for gold was, and remains, very thin.) To Europeans the coins were merely a form of gold. To US dealers they were individual commodities with individual attributes - and thus sold for a hefty premium. This changed when European holders realized they were loosing profit by cherry picking, and they reorganized how US gold coins were sold.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/7/2023 at 11:19 AM, RWB said:

Double eagles were about $42-48 during and after WW-II. They hit about $55 in the early 1970s - I bought some from Switzerland back then. (Mangy, dirty, lightly circulated.) It was the late 1980s before gold spot prices pushed DE upward.

My 1970 Red Book lists some common Saints in VERY FINE, EXTREMELY FINE, and UNCIRCULATED.  $85, $95, and $110 are the prices that keep repeating for those conditions in a generic common coin.

[GoldFinger1969]

1909-D from 2000-2023:  I thought this was interesting from last year's Bass sale of a top-ranked 1909-D Saint.  This is NOT one of the Top 5 Saints in terms of wants/desires....Roger has it 14th in terms of scarcity rank.

"....In the more than two decades since this coin was sold as part of the Harry W. Bass, Jr. Collection, the PCGS certified population has increased in MS66 from two submissions to six, while the number exceeding it (in MS67, the finest certified at that service), has increased from one to two coins. Those figures, which undoubtedly include at least one or two resubmissions, are an eloquent testament to the extreme rarity of the 1909-D issue (52,500 coins struck) in the finest Mint State grades."

The coin appreciated from $39,100 to $264,000, a compounded rate of 8.7% a year (one of the higher numbers I've seen for a trophy coin)....despite the population increase.  The TPGs had only been around 13-14 years when the low-pop census in 2000 was taken; since then, it's been 23 years and while they were increased, it wasn't like a torrential flood (indeed, the prices went UP for the top pops, though you could make the case they'd have gone up more if the pop numbers had remained constant).

Net-Net:  I doubt we see a proportionate or absolute boost in 1909-D's in the next 23 years as we did the last 23. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Authentication company populations are not reliable single sources. Among many biases, they do not state the total number of each piece submitted -- only how many were authenticated.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 10:53 AM, RWB said:

Authentication company populations are not reliable single sources. Among many biases, they do not state the total number of each piece submitted -- only how many were authenticated.

Yes....I believe you incorporated a method to eliminate double-counting as discussed about 50 pages ago.   

But for a low-pop total if all the coins are in PCGS holders (or NGC, for that matter), then we can assume we're not double-counting.

Anyway...if we resurrect this thread in 20 years I would venture that the number of MS-66 or better 1909-D's will NOT have seen the increase that we saw from 2000-23...unless there's some super-secretive lucrative hoard(s) we don't know about with pristine coins similar to the 1983 El Salvador/MTB Hoard. 

[VKurtB]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1909-D from 2000-2023:  I thought this was interesting from last year's Bass sale of a top-ranked 1909-D Saint.  This is NOT one of the Top 5 Saints in terms of wants/desires....Roger has it 14th in terms of scarcity rank.

"....In the more than two decades since this coin was sold as part of the Harry W. Bass, Jr. Collection, the PCGS certified population has increased in MS66 from two submissions to six, while the number exceeding it (in MS67, the finest certified at that service), has increased from one to two coins. Those figures, which undoubtedly include at least one or two resubmissions, are an eloquent testament to the extreme rarity of the 1909-D issue (52,500 coins struck) in the finest Mint State grades."

The coin appreciated from $39,100 to $264,000, a compounded rate of 8.7% a year (one of the higher numbers I've seen for a trophy coin)....despite the population increase.  The TPGs had only been around 13-14 years when the low-pop census in 2000 was taken; since then, it's been 23 years and while they were increased, it wasn't like a torrential flood (indeed, the prices went UP for the top pops, though you could make the case they'd have gone up more if the pop numbers had remained constant).

Net-Net:  I doubt we see a proportionate or absolute boost in 1909-D's in the next 23 years as we did the last 23. 

MANY MANY advanced collectors don't DO slabs; they just don't! Many use literal "cabinets". They're not spoken of as an abstract thing. Many wonderful ones are built in Italy.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:10 PM, VKurtB said:

MANY MANY advanced collectors don't DO slabs; they just don't! Many use literal "cabinets". They're not spoken of as an abstract thing. Many wonderful ones are built in Italy.

Kurt, I don't doubt there are SOME based on what you, Zadok, and other vets have said.  But it does appear that the most serious and big-time registry players have gone through the TPGs.

Have you seen any rare coins (Saints) that were NOT holdered by a TPG that have come on the market ?  It's VERY rare.  And almost always NOT a Top 10 or Top 5 coin.

This is what the TPGs were created to be:  neutral, 3rd-party arbiters.  You have a raw collector seller who insists his is a strong MS-66, maybe an MS-66+ or MS-66 CAC....the buyer insists it's no higher than an MS-65 and MIGHT be an MS-64...you're talking tens of thousands of dollars or more being left on the table. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:08 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

for a low-pop total if all the coins are in PCGS holders (or NGC, for that matter),

However, this is something we cannot know, unless a complete census is taken. That is an extremely rare situation.

I agree with Kurt's comment. Also the TPGs have failed to be "neutral, 3rd party arbiters" as shown by grade inflation, inconsistency, attribution irregularities, incomplete data release, and other factors. Except for catching most counterfeits submitted to them, nothing has really improved since they started operation....well prices for coins have been inflated by fee recovery. Registry participants are only a small subset of collectors and collections.

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

"Somewhat-Neutral TPGs....." 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:17 PM, RWB said:

Except for catching most counterfeits submitted to them, nothing has really improved since they started operation....well prices for coins have been inflated by fee recovery. Registry participants are only a small subset of collectors and collections.

I still think it's better than decades ago.  Just last night I saw 1899 Liberty Head DEs being sold in MS-62 for $3,300 when the market for them is probably $2,200 give-or-take.

[RWB]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I still think it's better than decades ago.  Just last night I saw 1899 Liberty Head DEs being sold in MS-62 for $3,300 when the market for them is probably $2,200 give-or-take.

That would be interesting if the grades were reliable. But TPGs have slipped grades downhill so much that if the Label says "Mint State 62" the coin might really be AU or even EF for wear. There are too many examples of this to make these "grade" labels meaningful opinions. The market can show us meaningful value only if buyer and seller are knowledgeable enough to make informed decisions.

[VKurtB]

On 7/24/2023 at 3:54 PM, RWB said:

The market can show us meaningful value only if buyer and seller are knowledgeable enough to make informed decisions.

This is the undeniable truth and it has been true both before and since TPGS have been “a thing”. Knowledge at a fairly deep level is a prerequisite (and at a roughly equal level, too) for there to be a functioning marketplace. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2023 at 7:59 AM, VKurtB said:

This is the undeniable truth and it has been true both before and since TPGS have been “a thing”. Knowledge at a fairly deep level is a prerequisite (and at a roughly equal level, too) for there to be a functioning marketplace. 

Agreed...but many here don't want to or can't spend the time to judge the grade on a coin.  And if you are going to spend thousands of dollars on a coin -- or even hundreds of dollars -- you don't want to be ripped off by a ton because you totally got it wrong on a coin that was sold as MS-63 and in fact was closer to AU-55.

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2023 at 8:54 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Agreed...but many here don't want to or can't spend the time to judge the grade on a coin.  And if you are going to spend thousands of dollars on a coin -- or even hundreds of dollars -- you don't want to be ripped off by a ton because you totally got it wrong on a coin that was sold as MS-63 and in fact was closer to AU-55.

Welcome to the all too frequent real world. And it’s NOT all malice. Much of it is honest disagreement of opinion. If that is too intense for you, then maybe coins aren’t your thing.

I have SOME sympathy for the “can’t spend the time” crowd, but the “don’t want to” crowd just makes my blood boil. Not my circus, not my monkeys. 

[zadok]

On 7/25/2023 at 10:13 AM, VKurtB said:

Welcome to the all too frequent real world. And it’s NOT all malice. Much of it is honest disagreement of opinion. If that is too intense for you, then maybe coins aren’t your thing.

I have SOME sympathy for the “can’t spend the time” crowd, but the “don’t want to” crowd just makes my blood boil. Not my circus, not my monkeys. 

...not to worry, the AI bots will soon do all that for everyone n no one will have to think...but look on the bright side, those same AI bots will be able to scan n process the entire NARA data files n publish 500-600 books in the first two weeks n then do few thousand term papers on the same subjects, probably even go to classes for u for an extra fee....

[zadok]

On 7/25/2023 at 9:54 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Agreed...but many here don't want to or can't spend the time to judge the grade on a coin.  And if you are going to spend thousands of dollars on a coin -- or even hundreds of dollars -- you don't want to be ripped off by a ton because you totally got it wrong on a coin that was sold as MS-63 and in fact was closer to AU-55.

...in retail sales, coins included, ur best customers r ur most informed customers...ditto when selling stocks n financial instruments....

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2023 at 9:22 AM, zadok said:

...in retail sales, coins included, ur best customers r ur most informed customers...ditto when selling stocks n financial instruments....

My “finance guy” is doing a bit better than I am on my much smaller personally managed account, but my biggest positive performer of all is one stock he advised strongly against. The thing that’s holding my aggregate results down is that I invested in both banks where I have my accounts. They’re larger regional banks and some “whale” has been hammering them with short selling. I have tried to bank at small community banks, but they keep getting merged into regionals. 

Edited July 25, 2023 by VKurtB