I rarely think along these lines, but some generic type coins sure seem cheap!

[MarkFeld]

I don't usually pay attention to such situations or care, but every once in a while, I can't help but think certain coins seem cheap.

 

Such is the situation now with, among others, the following :

 

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

Walkers graded MS65-67 and PR65-67

$3 Gold pieces graded MS63-65

$10 Indian's graded MS63-64

$20 Saints graded MS64-65

And, has been the case for a LONG time, many of the commemorative gold and silver issues.

 

No, I am not about to run a promotion. And no, I do not have quantities (if any) of such coins to sell.

 

And unfortunately, I can't even guarantee you that these coins wont drop in price from their current levels. But I am tempted to start putting some of the above away for a while, something I do only on extremely rare occasions.

 

What coins do YOU think seem cheap right now?

[erickso1]

I haven't been following most of the series/types you listed, but I've heard quite a few mention commems to be in this category. You can stretch a dollar pretty far building a classic silver set which is something I appreciate.

[messydesk]

I can relate to a few of those categories. I picked up a really nice 1942 Mercury dime PCGS PR65 CAC for $150 including the juice. Not long ago, this was the price for one with spots, haze, or blotches. I also traded a circ. common date Saint plus a little over $400 for a nice 1907 Saint in MS64. A 1941 Walker in PR65 is now on my shopping list to close out the proof set for my parents' birth year, and the remaining silver commems I need for my 50-coin set are drifting cheaper with the exception of the Gettysburg, which it would seem is being hoarded in preparation for a Well Managed Promotion™ corresponding with next year's 150th anniversary.

[DirtyGoldMan]

I agree that the 20th century gold, as you have indicated, seems cheap, but short of a Well Managed Promotion or gold rising to above $2250/ounce, I do not see what is going to make them go substantially higher.

 

I disagree with the $3 gold assessment. I know that these have been higher in the past, but they seem to be very unpopular, and again, I do not see what makes them go up in value in the short or intermediate or even long term. It is an odd (no pun intended) series that continues to baffle me. I have dabbled in them on and off for nearly ten years and always seem to be buying the wrong coin for the wrong price at the wrong time. Given my lack of success, it might be worth doing the opposite of what I recommend.

 

For the last ten years, many coin folks from all backgrounds have been pounding the table for commems, to no avail. Again, I do not see what is going to make them rise in value.

 

I cannot speak to the 20th century silver,

 

At heart, I guess I am an efficient market guy who believes that assets are generally priced at what they should be most of the time, so long as the market is not manipulated and that all pertinent information is readily available to all market participants.

[TomB]

I would add gem and near-gem Barber coinage with great eye appeal. These coins have a tendancy to linger in inventory because folks are wed to price guides that relate to average, ugly examples. Of course, the eye appeal aspect might remove these from the "generic" column, but gem $3 gold pieces don't exactly feel generic, either.

[BROADSTRUCK]

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

 

These to me are like dirt cheap right now.

[L1ncolnF4n]

MS-62 Saints.

[jom]

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

 

These to me are like dirt cheap right now.

 

This one I agree with completely. I mean...a gem for less than $200? That's nuts.

 

jom

[mumu]

MY coins .

[MarkFeld]

At heart, I guess I am an efficient market guy who believes that assets are generally priced at what they should be most of the time, so long as the market is not manipulated and that all pertinent information is readily available to all market participants.

 

Robert, I generally agree. But I would have felt the same way about the the coins I mentioned, when they were selling at much higher prices, (apparently) without being manipulated. They didn't seem over-priced to me before they declined in value. So now, they seem undervalued to me, at least on a relative basis.

[Zoins]

I also believe in efficient markets most of the time.

 

When a coin is cheap, do we mean cheap relative to historical performance or relative to expected future performance?

 

Just because some coins are off their highs does not mean they will attain those highs again. These coins wouldn't necessarily be cheap if they aren't expected to perform or outperform in the future.

[Arizonadesertrat]

"What coins do YOU think seem cheap right now?"

 

Ain't sayin'---proprietary information.

[shirohniichan]

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

 

These to me are like dirt cheap right now.

 

This one I agree with completely. I mean...a gem for less than $200? That's nuts.

 

jom

 

Maybe it's a good thing I didn't buy PR65 Mercs from the newsletter of a certain rare coin dealer down here in So' Cal' for $650 years ago.

[James_OldeTowne]

I don't usually pay attention to such situations or care, but every once in a while, I can't help but think certain coins seem cheap.

 

Such is the situation now with, among others, the following :

 

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

Walkers graded MS65-67 and PR65-67

$3 Gold pieces graded MS63-65

$10 Indian's graded MS63-64

$20 Saints graded MS64-65

I am not saying that you are wrong, but my opinion and experience differ a bit on your specific list. I think generic Walkers at MS-65 and up are actually overpriced, and think that is also true of Saints in those grades.

 

However, I think Saints at MS-67 are underpriced, if the particular coin is a TRUE MS-67 (and not a "green label wells fargo" or other generally inflated 67).

 

To me, one underpriced series is SLQs in any non-FH UNC grade.

[MarkFeld]

I don't usually pay attention to such situations or care, but every once in a while, I can't help but think certain coins seem cheap.

 

Such is the situation now with, among others, the following :

 

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

Walkers graded MS65-67 and PR65-67

$3 Gold pieces graded MS63-65

$10 Indian's graded MS63-64

$20 Saints graded MS64-65

I am not saying that you are wrong, but my opinion and experience differ a bit on your specific list. I think generic Walkers at MS-65 and up are actually overpriced, and think that is also true of Saints in those grades.

 

However, I think Saints at MS-67 are underpriced, if the particular coin is a TRUE MS-67 (and not a "green label wells fargo" or other generally inflated 67).

 

To me, one underpriced series is SLQs in any non-FH UNC grade.

James, I'm not saying you're wrong, but upon what do you base your opinions?

 

For example, gold is at $1671 and MS64 Saints are bid at slightly over $1800 with an ask below $1900. That seems ike a pretty small premium to me - what would make you think they were cheap on a historical basis, considering premiums to the spot price of gold?.

[MarkFeld]

I also believe in efficient markets most of the time.

 

When a coin is cheap, do we mean cheap relative to historical performance or relative to expected future performance?

 

Just because some coins are off their highs does not mean they will attain those highs again. These coins wouldn't necessarily be cheap if they aren't expected to perform or outperform in the future.

 

Thanks for the good question. Now that you caused me to think about what I meant

 

"Cheap" primarily as compared to where I'm guessing they were a couple of years ago and/or much longer ago. And I agree, that just because a coin is selling for a lot less than its historical high, does not mean it is "cheap".

 

The difficulty lies in trying to determine if the high was an outlier or if the current much lower price is. Or for that matter, if it's neither or both.

 

Since I don't claim to know the answers to the above, I let my gut feel and experience lead me and hope they don't let me down.

[newprepper]

Are the prices actually lower than they were in the past, or do they appear cheaper due to the relationship of bullion prices? Or based against you earning more today than yesterday and being able to afford more, having a higher disposable income?

[MarkFeld]

Are the prices actually lower than they were in the past, or do they appear cheaper due to the relationship of bullion prices? Or based against you earning more today than yesterday and being able to afford more, having a higher disposable income?

 

I believe that each coin type/grade I mentioned is probably considerably lower in price now, than it was at many points during the past few years. Additionally, while I don't pay a lot of attention to them, I am under the impression that some of the generic gold type coins' premiums are also "cheap" compared to past premiums over the price of gold.

[newprepper]

Not having followed coins, I was curious. Sometimes other factors besides actual dollars affect whether cheap or not. Perception can cloud the issue

[Kurtdog]

Are the prices actually lower than they were in the past, or do they appear cheaper due to the relationship of bullion prices?

The bullion market and the numismatic market move independently of one another.

[newprepper]

I understand that, but the perception of silver at 5 an ounce and a 30 dollar dime versus 28 an ounce and the dime hasnt changed, makes the dime cheaper perception-wise. also cheaper due to inflation.

[World Colonial]

I do not have a list from US coins since I do not buy them.

 

I do agree that Mercury dimes in PR-65 (Or better?) seem like a good COLLECTIBLE value at $150. Personally, I would probably try to buy one of the CAM from whatever date that has the most of them (which I cannot remember). The last time, these were not that expensive either.

 

I also agree with Mark that Saints at the prices he quoted are a reasonable value considering the spot price. However, I would not expect the premiums to increase much or even at all if gold prices move up substantially.

 

I still think that most coin prices will underperform bullion financially for the same reason that I believe those coins have performed poorly recently. People are strapped for cash, "recovery" or not, some desperately so.

[Zoins]

I still think that most coin prices will underperform bullion financially for the same reason that I believe those coins have performed poorly recently. People are strapped for cash, "recovery" or not, some desperately so.

 

I believe the upper echelon of coins and bullion will continue to do well, however I agree the prognosis is not good for less than premium coins.

 

85% of the middle class is feeling the squeeze according to a report by the Pew Research Center published yesterday. From CNNMoney:

 

The middle class is struggling to survive and shrinking before our eyes, the Pew Research Center reported on Wednesday.

 

"America's middle class has endured its worst decade in modern history," the Pew Research Center said in its report. "It has shrunk in size, fallen backward in income and wealth, and shed some -- but by no means all -- of its characteristic faith in the future."

 

Of the 2,500 people Pew surveyed, 85% of those who identify themselves as middle class say it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago to maintain their standard of living. The report also found that the middle class is a much smaller part of the population than it used to be, while the poor and rich extremes of society are expanding.

 

The biggest issue facing the middle class is that their wealth is deteriorating, said economist Richard Fry.

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

I have a few general problems with the original question and its phrasing, and the multiple thoughts in reply to the question.

 

First, the thrust of the question is skewed. It seems to concentrate on the idea of collecting for monetary return, and considers lowering some non-defined collecting standard by considering "generic" coins.

 

Second, the emphasis of the original question seems to prefer investment over collecting, given a perceived economic condition windfall that would favor the lowering of the non-defined standard at this time.

 

Third, the word "cheap" is simply skewed. In order to determine the relative value for comparison, I would think we would have to, at a minimum, eliminate any values/prices that were the result of manipulation, up or down, that makes a person decide to consider the purchase of these "generic" coins now, as opposed to then.

 

I understand that there is a valid school of thought that would be presented: I could not afford that coin way back in 1579. Now that the coin is "cheaper" than it was then, it is a bargain.

 

Is this really a valid school of thought, all things considered?

 

From a Dealer perspective, I certainly understand contemplating the question, because it may mean the difference between eating peanut butter or a nice fish dinner. From a collector perspective, I understand contemplating the question if it allows the collector to buy "more" with the coin money budget. But (blah, blah) does it really?

 

Does the original question itself defy the often stated mantra of buy the best you can in the highest grade and leave the widgets to drown?

 

Ready, aim, fire....I have already started running.

 

Respectfully,

John Curlis

[newprepper]

I don't usually pay attention to such situations or care, but every once in a while, I can't help but think certain coins seem cheap.

 

Such is the situation now with, among others, the following :

 

Mercury Dimes graded PR65-67

Walkers graded MS65-67 and PR65-67

$3 Gold pieces graded MS63-65

$10 Indian's graded MS63-64

$20 Saints graded MS64-65

And, has been the case for a LONG time, many of the commemorative gold and silver issues.

 

No, I am not about to run a promotion. And no, I do not have quantities (if any) of such coins to sell.

 

And unfortunately, I can't even guarantee you that these coins wont drop in price from their current levels. But I am tempted to start putting some of the above away for a while, something I do only on extremely rare occasions.

 

What coins do YOU think seem cheap right now?

 

Now that I re read your original post, If you don't have them, how are you going to put them away???

 

Hoarder

[newprepper]

I have a few general problems with the original question and its phrasing, and the multiple thoughts in reply to the question.

 

First, the thrust of the question is skewed. It seems to concentrate on the idea of collecting for monetary return, and considers lowering some non-defined collecting standard by considering "generic" coins.

 

Second, the emphasis of the original question seems to prefer investment over collecting, given a perceived economic condition windfall that would favor the lowering of the non-defined standard at this time.

 

Third, the word "cheap" is simply skewed. In order to determine the relative value for comparison, I would think we would have to, at a minimum, eliminate any values/prices that were the result of manipulation, up or down, that makes a person decide to consider the purchase of these "generic" coins now, as opposed to then.

 

I understand that there is a valid school of thought that would be presented: I could not afford that coin way back in 1579. Now that the coin is "cheaper" than it was then, it is a bargain.

 

Is this really a valid school of thought, all things considered?

 

From a Dealer perspective, I certainly understand contemplating the question, because it may mean the difference between eating peanut butter or a nice fish dinner. From a collector perspective, I understand contemplating the question if it allows the collector to buy "more" with the coin money budget. But (blah, blah) does it really?

 

Does the original question itself defy the often stated mantra of buy the best you can in the highest grade and leave the widgets to drown?

 

Ready, aim, fire....I have already started running.

 

Respectfully,

John Curlis

 

How freaking old are you?!?!?!

[Conder101]

Now that I re read your original post, If you don't have them, how are you going to put them away???

By buying some.

[e1cnr]

most of the 36 - 42 proof issues have been sliding

 

I want them to slide some more so I can get a nice looking buffalo

[MarkFeld]

I do not have a list from US coins since I do not buy them.

 

I do agree that Mercury dimes in PR-65 (Or better?) seem like a good COLLECTIBLE value at $150. Personally, I would probably try to buy one of the CAM from whatever date that has the most of them (which I cannot remember). The last time, these were not that expensive either.

 

I also agree with Mark that Saints at the prices he quoted are a reasonable value considering the spot price. However, I would not expect the premiums to increase much or even at all if gold prices move up substantially.

 

I still think that most coin prices will underperform bullion financially for the same reason that I believe those coins have performed poorly recently. People are strapped for cash, "recovery" or not, some desperately so.

 

Very few Proof Mercury Dimes of any date have been designated Cameo by NGC or PCGS. And the ones that have, have generally sold at substantial premiums - to the tune of many multiples of non-cameo examples.

[Zoins]

I also believe in efficient markets most of the time.

 

When a coin is cheap, do we mean cheap relative to historical performance or relative to expected future performance?

 

Just because some coins are off their highs does not mean they will attain those highs again. These coins wouldn't necessarily be cheap if they aren't expected to perform or outperform in the future.

 

Thanks for the good question. Now that you caused me to think about what I meant

 

"Cheap" primarily as compared to where I'm guessing they were a couple of years ago and/or much longer ago. And I agree, that just because a coin is selling for a lot less than its historical high, does not mean it is "cheap".

 

The difficulty lies in trying to determine if the high was an outlier or if the current much lower price is. Or for that matter, if it's neither or both.

 

Since I don't claim to know the answers to the above, I let my gut feel and experience lead me and hope they don't let me down.

 

Hi Mark,

 

Thanks for the answer. I can understand how certain coins can be viewed as inexpensive when comparing prices to where they have been historically, especially when using economic cycles as a gauge.

 

However, more recently, I've been a bit weary of comparing prices to where they have been historically as world demographics and income distribution are shifting. It will be interesting to see what happens to the middle class with the next Presidential election.