eBay Seller/Buyer oddity and question..what's your opinion?

[Morgan Mark-migration]

I lost an eBay auction this past weekend and looked at the winning bidder once the auction ended. It turned out that he/she bid right after the auction opened and bid (apparently) a significant amount. I looked at more of this seller's items and this bidder was at the top (leading bid) in many of the seller's auctions and had almost always bid very early. Here's his bidding profile:

 

30-Day Summary

Total bids: 1751

Items bid on: 543

Bid activity (%) with this seller: 99%

Bid retractions: 0

Bid retractions (6 months): 0

 

Finally, this "bidder" has a total feedback of 14. Does anyone else think there's something odd going on here? Or, perhaps there's a logical explanation. Thanks.

 

Mark

 

[okbustchaser]

Yes, there is a logical explanation. The buyer knows and trusts this seller.

 

There is also the paranoid explanation. The seller MUST be a scumbag who uses shill bidders to steal money.

 

I normally believe the former until proved wrong.

[MarkFeld]

Yes, there is a logical explanation. The buyer knows and trusts this seller.

 

There is also the paranoid explanation. The seller MUST be a scumbag who uses shill bidders to steal money.

 

I normally believe the former until proved wrong.

I think both explanations/possibilities are logical and that one need not be paranoid in order to strongly suspect shill bidding.

[cpm9ball]

Shill be comin round the mountain when he sells,

 

Shill be comin round the mountain when he sells...........

 

Chris

[gpnyc]

I think this statistic pretty much indicates shill bidding:

 

Bid activity (%) with this seller: 99%

 

If the bidder has placed 1,751 bids all to the same seller, there can be no other explanation.

[Buffalo Head]

I think this statistic pretty much indicates shill bidding:

 

Bid activity (%) with this seller: 99%

 

If the bidder has placed 1,751 bids all to the same seller, there can be no other explanation.

 

100% agree with that statement, it stinks.....Joe

[Chris1976]

Its just a way for the seller to avoid the higher cost in listing fees. Granted it is against Ebays policys, but alot of them do it. The seller has two accounts, one he list items with a minimum bid. then logs into the second account and places a bid on his own item at an amount he wants to recieve as a minimum. Then all the seller has to do is mark the item as paid. The seller saves on fees and his buying account does not incure any additional fees either. I've seen alot of that since I opened my ebay account back in 1997.

 

-Chris#2

[Morgan Mark-migration]

Thanks all. I thought it could be but I didn't want to jump to conclusions. My guess is that everyone is familiar with this seller as he/she moves a large volume. I've never run into this before and it's not great to lose an item for this reason; particularly when I thought I'd over-bid for the item in the first place.

 

I guess my next step is to report it to eBay - for all the good that'll do. Thanks again.

 

Mark

[MarkFeld]

Who is the seller?

[jom]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

[123cents]

Something rotten in Denmark!

[MarkFeld]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

[jom]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

 

I'm not defending the shilling at all. The seller should be banned from eBay, IMO. Isn't shilling illegal anyway?

 

However, my comment was meant as a suggestion to help protect oneself from such situations. Especially more subtle situations where you really don't who is bidding for whom. The way, it seems to me, to avoid "paying more than you have to" is to only bid up to what you would think it's worth or what you feel comfortable with.

 

jom

[Morgan Mark-migration]

The eBay item number of the item I bid on was 290550465288.

 

Mark

 

Perhaps someone can help me understand how to share a link (to an ended eBay item). Thanks.

[MarkFeld]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

 

I'm not defending the shilling at all. The seller should be banned from eBay, IMO. Isn't shilling illegal anyway?

 

However, my comment was meant as a suggestion to help protect oneself from such situations. Especially more subtle situations where you really don't who is bidding for whom. The way, it seems to me, to avoid "paying more than you have to" is to only bid up to what you would think it's worth or what you feel comfortable with.

 

jom

That can prevent you from paying more than you are comfortable with or too much. But if the seller uses a shill, you still might pay more than you should have to.

[cpm9ball]

The eBay item number of the item I bid on was 290550465288.

 

Mark

 

Perhaps someone can help me understand how to share a link (to an ended eBay item). Thanks.

 

greatsoutherncoin

 

Chris

[e1cnr]

I wouldn't bid on their coins because of the pics anyway

 

greatsoutherncoin

 

 

they have a following and possibly some just bid there

 

link to auction

[MarkFeld]

The eBay item number of the item I bid on was 290550465288.

 

Mark

 

Perhaps someone can help me understand how to share a link (to an ended eBay item). Thanks.

 

greatsoutherncoin

 

Chris

I would avoid that seller even if I didn't suspect they were using one or more shills.

 

I think their images hide flaws and are overly flattering. And that many buyers of their coins think they are getting bargains, when in fact, they are burying themselves at prices which are way too high.

 

 

[Walkerfan]

I wouldn't bid on their coins because of the pics anyway

 

greatsoutherncoin

 

 

they have a following and possibly some just bid there

 

link to auction

 

Why does this not surprise me. They are using shills AND they sell AU problem coins as MS 64+++ STAY AWAY!! For your own good and, yes, EBAY SHOULD ban this type of activity.

[Keigwin]

I wouldn't bid on their coins because of the pics anyway

 

greatsoutherncoin

 

 

they have a following and possibly some just bid there

 

link to auction

 

Why does this not surprise me. They are using shills AND they sell AU problem coins as MS 64+++ STAY AWAY!! For your own good and, yes, EBAY SHOULD ban this type of activity.

Ain't that the truth.

Lance.

[jesbroken]

Two quick notes. I would not bid on a GSC auction due to their prevalent use of fraudulent and doctored photos, but I have noticed they have quite a following for what ever reason and their auctions do seem to bring in good money for their junk.

Another note, JOM--yes, it hurts when a bidder places an honest bid for an auction, but the amount is driven up by shill bidding as the auction would never likely went as high. When bidding, one must use a common sense approach to the value of an item and bid accordingly, all that goes out the window due to shill bidding. JMO.

Jim

[gmarguli]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

 

The biggest assumption that people make is that shill bidding will actually drive the price higher than it would have normally gone without the shill. I believe this is basically incorrect because for it to be correct then we would have to assume that pricing in the marketplace is behaving inefficiently. We know this is not the case and can point to an extremely vast number of closed auctions to confirm this.

 

For most items there is a fairly well know market price. People truly interested in an item will bid around this level. Let's assume the market price is $100 and there are 5 days left in the auction and it is currently at $10. If I place a shill bid at $95 and the next bidder bids $100, do you think he really was forced to pay more? Did my shill cost him $85 (difference between his next bid increment before I placed my shill and the final selling price)? In reality, the shill bid just displaced other legitimate bidders in between the $10 bid and where the final selling price would end up with or without the shill. No one would have let the item go to this buyer for $15. They would have placed bids and driven it up to that $100 level regardless. It's value is known to the marketplace and people will push it up to its value with or without a shill.

 

I'll admit that on esoteric items shilling could have a marginal affect on the final price. Shilling could also prevent those few instances where the marketplace did not secure the true value of an item. However, I believe that both of these instances represent an extremely small percentage of the total possibilities of shilling to improve the auction outcome.

 

And for disclosure, I recently purchased a coin on eBay from a seller that I was told beforehand uses a shill. Did I pay too much? I won it for about 3% below what I considered FMV. Could I have won it cheaper? Possibly, but probably not likely.

[MarkFeld]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

 

The biggest assumption that people make is that shill bidding will actually drive the price higher than it would have normally gone without the shill. I believe this is basically incorrect because for it to be correct then we would have to assume that pricing in the marketplace is behaving inefficiently. We know this is not the case and can point to an extremely vast number of closed auctions to confirm this.

 

For most items there is a fairly well know market price. People truly interested in an item will bid around this level. Let's assume the market price is $100 and there are 5 days left in the auction and it is currently at $10. If I place a shill bid at $95 and the next bidder bids $100, do you think he really was forced to pay more? Did my shill cost him $85 (difference between his next bid increment before I placed my shill and the final selling price)? In reality, the shill bid just displaced other legitimate bidders in between the $10 bid and where the final selling price would end up with or without the shill. No one would have let the item go to this buyer for $15. They would have placed bids and driven it up to that $100 level regardless. It's value is known to the marketplace and people will push it up to its value with or without a shill.

 

I'll admit that on esoteric items shilling could have a marginal affect on the final price. Shilling could also prevent those few instances where the marketplace did not secure the true value of an item. However, I believe that both of these instances represent an extremely small percentage of the total possibilities of shilling to improve the auction outcome.

 

And for disclosure, I recently purchased a coin on eBay from a seller that I was told beforehand uses a shill. Did I pay too much? I won it for about 3% below what I considered FMV. Could I have won it cheaper? Possibly, but probably not likely.

I don't claim to know how often or by how much, shilling results in the winning bidder having to pay more than he otherwise would. Only that it does sometimes have that result.

 

Still, as usual, you make very good points.

[jom]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

 

The biggest assumption that people make is that shill bidding will actually drive the price higher than it would have normally gone without the shill. I believe this is basically incorrect because for it to be correct then we would have to assume that pricing in the marketplace is behaving inefficiently. We know this is not the case and can point to an extremely vast number of closed auctions to confirm this.

 

For most items there is a fairly well know market price. People truly interested in an item will bid around this level. Let's assume the market price is $100 and there are 5 days left in the auction and it is currently at $10. If I place a shill bid at $95 and the next bidder bids $100, do you think he really was forced to pay more? Did my shill cost him $85 (difference between his next bid increment before I placed my shill and the final selling price)? In reality, the shill bid just displaced other legitimate bidders in between the $10 bid and where the final selling price would end up with or without the shill. No one would have let the item go to this buyer for $15. They would have placed bids and driven it up to that $100 level regardless. It's value is known to the marketplace and people will push it up to its value with or without a shill.

 

I'll admit that on esoteric items shilling could have a marginal affect on the final price. Shilling could also prevent those few instances where the marketplace did not secure the true value of an item. However, I believe that both of these instances represent an extremely small percentage of the total possibilities of shilling to improve the auction outcome.

 

And for disclosure, I recently purchased a coin on eBay from a seller that I was told beforehand uses a shill. Did I pay too much? I won it for about 3% below what I considered FMV. Could I have won it cheaper? Possibly, but probably not likely.

 

Excellent post. This is what I was trying to say...sort of....since I don't know, like Mark, claim to know-all about when the bidding causes a higher than otherwise price. Shilling can also create a huge problem with people who have less experience with auctions...they could get caught in auction fever. However, even then the shill might not run up the price due to not wanting to actually "win" the bidding.

 

jom

[EVillageProwler]

My belief is that shillers will do so just enough that they don't feel skewered by the selling price. Sad to admit, I think I agree with Greg.

 

EVP

[nunfa0]

But if the seller has to shill the price up to where he is comfortable, why not just raise the starting price?

[MarkFeld]

But if the seller has to shill the price up to where he is comfortable, why not just raise the starting price?

Because, among other reasons, a low starting price or (apparent) no reserve sale encourages more bidders/bidding activity.

[Chris1976]

and cost the seller less in fees incured for the same as well

[coinman_23885]

I think this statistic pretty much indicates shill bidding:

 

Bid activity (%) with this seller: 99%

 

If the bidder has placed 1,751 bids all to the same seller, there can be no other explanation.

 

What are the odds that every coin the bidder is looking for just happens to be up for sale from the same seller. The odds are infinitesimally small that this isn't an instance of shill bidding.

[coinman_23885]

This is something everyone should try to avoid and something eBay should try to quash but still...if you only bid up to what YOU think the item is worth then any kind of shilling going on is not all that important, is it?

 

jom

It's "that important" to me. Because I don't want to pay more for a coin than I would otherwise have to, simply because the seller is breaking the rules. And shilling is also unfair to other sellers, who pay extra Ebay fees, in order to set reserves.

 

The biggest assumption that people make is that shill bidding will actually drive the price higher than it would have normally gone without the shill. I believe this is basically incorrect because for it to be correct then we would have to assume that pricing in the marketplace is behaving inefficiently. We know this is not the case and can point to an extremely vast number of closed auctions to confirm this.

 

For most items there is a fairly well know market price. People truly interested in an item will bid around this level. Let's assume the market price is $100 and there are 5 days left in the auction and it is currently at $10. If I place a shill bid at $95 and the next bidder bids $100, do you think he really was forced to pay more? Did my shill cost him $85 (difference between his next bid increment before I placed my shill and the final selling price)? In reality, the shill bid just displaced other legitimate bidders in between the $10 bid and where the final selling price would end up with or without the shill. No one would have let the item go to this buyer for $15. They would have placed bids and driven it up to that $100 level regardless. It's value is known to the marketplace and people will push it up to its value with or without a shill.

 

I'll admit that on esoteric items shilling could have a marginal affect on the final price. Shilling could also prevent those few instances where the marketplace did not secure the true value of an item. However, I believe that both of these instances represent an extremely small percentage of the total possibilities of shilling to improve the auction outcome.

 

And for disclosure, I recently purchased a coin on eBay from a seller that I was told beforehand uses a shill. Did I pay too much? I won it for about 3% below what I considered FMV. Could I have won it cheaper? Possibly, but probably not likely.

 

My problem with your argument is that all price guides are inaccurate to a degree and price changes can take a long time to reflect the new data. A buyer may want to buy coin X with a price guide value of $100, but the current market only truly supports $75. In this instance, the buyer is paying 133% of current market price. No matter how well read and informed a potential is, there is no one who can state that they are up to date on contemporaneous market conditions for every coin.