zadok

On 4/28/2024 at 7:44 AM, World Colonial said:

Maybe.

Back in 1998, my former boss told me he had a collection of post-1968 proof sets.  I didn't ask him if he had anything else.  All I remember is that he was disgusted when I informed him that he had been wasting his money on a SDB for decades.  He certainly wasn't "active", whether anyone wants to call him a collector or not.  Not sure how typical this example is of what you see.  I'm aware that given the supply of so many common coins, someone has to own it.

Usually when someone asks this question, it's in the context of future prices presumably including their own collection.  If there really are 10MM US collectors or any number approaching it, the vast majority (probably in the vicinity of at least 70%) have no relevance on future demand, certainly not on the US coinage owned by most US collectors. 

Longer term, I expect demand for practically all post-1933 US coinage to decline noticeably first and then collapse.  Only somewhat better for earlier dates.

...a few years back the US govt did a survey of various topics including coin collecting, their summary estimated over 10 million, im not certain of the year but post 2000....

On 4/28/2024 at 9:34 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Worth gettiing graded, or coins that are going to be left raw since they are not in a high-enough condition to merit certification ?

...neither, most of the truly super rare n high end coins u have seen sold in the past few years had remained raw n were not graded until after the decision to sell them n after the various auction houses insisted due to increased auction results n increased returns adding on to that many of the then graded coins were submitted to be cac'd to add on more increased returns, prior to these decisions to sell, many of these higher end coins were not reflected in known censuses of their respective series n many such coins will remain raw until a decision to sell happens....

On 4/28/2024 at 9:30 AM, Henri Charriere said:

A clearly characteristic example of the classic well-documented cohort: nattering nabobs of negativism with an ample helping of defensiveness that adds nothing to the body of knowledge. To quote the late, great sportscaster:  "Let's go to the videotape."

1.  If one were to declare the more precise figure is 37%, who would challenge it?  If anything, no one could because the figure is transitory and in a perpetual state of Flux -- which forever, thereafter remains because no one is equipped with the irrefutable artillery: the cold hard facts.

2.  A neither-here, neither there, self-serving, autobiographical statement if ever there was one.  The latter part of this statement is impossible to prove or disprove and in the highly unlikely event in can, what statistical data or marketing data would the author rely on or care to cite to support this incredible, fantastical prognostication?

3.  ABSOLUTE CONJECTURE in its near-purist form:  99.44%

4.  SELF-SERVING ASSERTION ANY SELF-APPOINTED KING CAN MAKE TO HIS INTRINSICALLY UNWASHED UNINFORMED SUBJECTS.

5.  "placed"?  Not lent per legal codicil.  Disavows "constructive possession."  Left?  Purposely left vague. Intrepretation: that is for me and the recipient(s) to know; and for you or the --- to find out.

6. A curious comment:  "nor do I expect them to be..."  Wishy-washy terminological inexactitudes.  Do you not know the state of your own mind or those mythical creatures you entrusted your treasures to and periodically entertain us with?

7.  Inherently rude but a polite Board Guideline- approved way of saying:  "Have a Nice Day."

UPSHOT:  A SIZEABLE BANDWIDTH OF MEASURED BABBLING THAT ADDS NOTHING AS A "REPLY TO THE TOPIC."

🐓:  I concur. 

...to summarize:...poster once again has nothing to add to the discussion, more text book obsession to be a part of everything even if incoherently...babble, babble babble....

On 4/27/2024 at 8:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't doubt that there is still (lots of) stuff out there that is grade-worthy and worth nice $$$....VKurt has intimated as much with all his auctions finds....Sandon and Zadok, too....but could top-pop, census-altering volumes STILL be out there...preserved pristinely....in high-grade and/or mint condition....by average folks...who know NOTHING about coins and/or PRESERVING coins... .the SAME people who think wiping a coin with a towel keeps it CLEAN and in GOOD condition ???!!! 

I could see top-half or top-quarter condition hoards coming out....but top-pop stuff ?  

That I definitely agree with as people may have specific MCMVII HR's inherited from parents who had no other interest in coins (remember the response of an SSCA buyer to QDB's invitation to get more coins), more general Saints (held as a form of gold if not for numismatic purposes), and ditto Morgans and other gold/silver coins serving a dual bullion-numismatic purpose (mostly bullion if the holders are older).

But even for the stuff that I track (see above)....hasn't the RATE OF INCREASE slowed ? 

Yes, there are new submittances...new hoards....new SDB finds...new oveseas finds (i.e., Fairmont)....but it can't approximate what came out when the TPGs first came out during the heavy period of 1986-2006, the first 20 years, can it ?  In 2 years, it'll be another 20 years (40 years total since the TPGs came out) and I can't see the split for most coins being greater than 70% the first 20 years....30% the last 20 years...if not closer to 80/20 or even 90/10.

 

...respectfully disagree...i doubt it has exceeded 40% possibly 50% but doubtful...not all high end coins r destined to be graded nor do their owners so desire...in the not too far distant past i privately purchased a grouping of 5 US coins over 150 years since mintage that would grade in the ms65-67 range, same date, mint, denomination...this coin is considered one of the key dates for its respective series n is still currently reflected in the "red book" with a dash in the mint state column n none have been certified by any of the tpgs in mint state, i "placed" 4 of the 5 in private collector hands where they remain n to date none have been certified nor do i expect them to be at anytime in the foreseeable future...having the coins made public does not enhance their relative value...n the collecting community need not be privilege to the particulars of this information, its private...

On 4/26/2024 at 8:20 PM, World Colonial said:

As I wrote in my earlier post, if the collector base is actually as large as some of the numbers stated here, we'd be running into them regularly.  This is particularly true since the participation rate among most demographic groups is so much lower than the primary one. approaching zero often and they represent a noticeable proportion of the US population.  If five or 10 million "active" collectors, then that's potentially between one in 10 to 20 Caucasian males.  That's far too high.

Who owns these coins and how many are there?  I have no idea.  I admit it.

Concurrently, it's been my assumption that "investment" type US coinage (the more common Morgan and Peace dollars and pre-1933 US gold) is predominantly bought for financial reasons.  There is too much of it and it's too expensive for it to owned by hobbyist collectors in more than low proportion.

For the 1916-D dime, my recollection is PCGS Coin Facts estimates 10,000.  Even accounting for duplicates, seems far too low.  I'd guess 25K minimum which is "low" enough where the vast majority can realistically be owned by collectors.

To me, it's coins like common date capped bust halves which are more of a mystery.  Coin Facts to my recollection tops out at 8,000 or 10,000 whereas I think a more realistic number is at least 50,000 which is still only about 1%.  It's probably higher.

...perhaps ur choice of "active" is a determinate?...just as a point for consideration, i observe n actively participate in local, regional n occasionally national estate sales n auctions n in the 90 percentile they almost always have coin collections, accumulations or groupings of coins, ditto for unclaimed safe deposit box auctions...once a collector always a collector even after death....

On 4/25/2024 at 7:17 PM, Greenstang said:

Morse Code “ We win when we work willingly”

...w to the 6th...gotcha....

On 4/26/2024 at 12:06 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Back to Roosters and the French .....doing some original article reading and the amount of gold hoarding by the French populace was astounding. 

I've noted here the rise in gold reserves by the U.S. (big) and France (huge) as nations.  Individually, the French seemed more in a hoarding mode than citizens of the UK, Germany, Switzerland, and other countries.

Without their Roosters being available, they went to the other birds:  the Eagles and Double Eagles. 

...wasnt much else there to hoard, wine n gold...define ur use of the word "french", people or govt or both n then or now or both?....

On 4/25/2024 at 11:48 PM, Cat Bath said:

Heathens...All of them.

Pearls before swine unwashed masses of filth & depravity.

We are trying to enlighten you base, foul & unholy excuses for humanity.

1st two words out of your dirt covered faces should be..."Thank You".

...dont let the word "saint" mislead u....

On 4/25/2024 at 12:58 PM, VKurtB said:

Have you escaped the profound idiocy happening at Columbia University?

...escaped is an accurate description, but even columbia has entrance level standards....

On 4/25/2024 at 12:54 PM, VKurtB said:

Of coins that spent nearly their entire existence waiting to be melted into Ft. Knox bars? Hardly. If the Treasury Department had that little respect for them, why should I? My collecting preference is for unusually nice coins of types that people actually used. Except for the difference in inherent value, St. Gaudens $20 gold coins were the Presidential or Innovation Dollars of their era. Unloved, largely unknown, and mostly unused. 

...like roosters in paris....

On 4/25/2024 at 10:05 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Why shouldn't it ?  Even if you dislike gold, can't you appreciate the artistry ?  

...well if u like beefy looking washer women stomping on grapes go for it....

On 4/25/2024 at 9:36 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Still can't believe that costume got past the old ABC censors !! 

Saw her on an old episode of "2 1/2 Men" and she STILL looks good past 70 !!! 

...her n brooke....

On 4/24/2024 at 9:59 PM, Henri Charriere said:

This dated comment deserves a reevaluation and update.  In the Gold Rooster series, two dates, both older "originals." have never been certified above MS-64.  The number of MS-65s and MS-66s can be counted on one hand. ALL ARE TOP POPS. At least tentatively until zadok & Co. unseal their reserves.  🤣

Several "restrike" dates have been certified MS-67+ -- and two, initially certified at MS-68 at P---, are now listed on the NGC census.

I abandoned the + graded coins to avoid the drudgery of [inevitable] ungrading. It was a futile gesture.  Then, reports leaked in abroad suggesting certified coins would continue to be sold, but new material would remain raw and graded using scales developed. adopted and used locally.

For the French 20-francs gold rooster collectors, as a practical matter, this would mean -- barring personal, in-hand examination, one would have to acquire a coin from France adjudged to be embraced by the "la creme de la creme" line which falls with the FDC designated range, MS65 to MS-70.

I did not elect to retire; that momentous decision was made for me. Tomorrow, a whale cruising in the shoals off Sarasota can gobble me up, Rising Star Henri Charriere, serving at the pleasure of NGC's top management, and I shall be relegated to but an unconfirmed rumor in the annals of TPGS history...

 

...to summarize:...nothing new, same old  ...also, no relegation, bar is much higher....

On 4/24/2024 at 3:01 PM, VKurtB said:

But the St. Gaudens worship lives on forever. 

...and lynda carter mite still come to ur house with her lasso....

On 4/22/2024 at 10:41 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Evidently, W.C., for whom I have the highest regard, irrespective of any perceived differences of opinion, didn't get that memo.  On the four-letter Set Registry [you forbid me to spell out or refer to in acronymical form] the entire French 20-Francs line (all 11, including the gold roosters) is listed under the decimalisation heading. I cannot say for sure, but I believe the respective TPGSs' refusal to allow commingling of World Gold slabs on either site stems from a dispute over how such coins are listed.  To NGC's credit, the Set Registry is ultra user-friendly breaking everything down to basics.  An analogy would be one side's use of common generic terms while the other insists on using the formal Latin (scientific) name.  Bad analogy but you get the drift.

...to summarize:...france is not a part of the british empire....

On 4/22/2024 at 4:39 PM, Henri Charriere said:

...Operative words: "unsolicited comments"... One Key victory of note:  my greatest fan read every word of what I'd written and, in true gentlemanly fashion, ditched the overused emoji, and dignified my comment with a formal reply.  What a mensch!  Man, I love this place!  Pesach sameach!

...u mite make it into a footnote in that text book yet....

On 4/22/2024 at 4:06 PM, RWB said:

Certainly beyond your capabilities.

...careful u dont want to throw out ur typing shoulder while patting urself on the back....

On 4/21/2024 at 7:41 PM, Jason Abshier said:

@powermad5000 I’m sure coin shows are now the new hangout spots for criminals to steal coins off collectors or dealers when they leave show at the end of the event …. Everyone becoming more and more aware of this situation involving thieves and criminals …. My Grandfather used collect guns he went gun shows from time to time he knew dealers and they knew him well … one day a couple moved in next door to my grandfather he knew they were drug addicts (he believes they were the one that stole from him but there was no proof) …. He had go on vacation when he came home someone broke into his house stole a bunch of his guns not all of them but they mostly went after handguns however they moved 1 week after that incident … he never did find any of his guns back , he kept collecting bought a better gun safe (vault) as well back then gun safes weren’t popular in 70’s and 80’s most people kept their guns in wooden display cases with glass … 

...should have bought a couple of attack dogs....

On 4/21/2024 at 8:57 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Re: "Dealer vs Member Grading" (current topic posted by dccbar on this Forum)

1-  Having never attended a live auction, I am ill-equipped to characterize the pregnant pauses seen in this one as being out of the ordinary. My televised experiences suggest they are fast-moving and do not pause for bids. Maybe I am mistaken. (Member @VKurtB would be eminently qualified to comment on this aspect.)

2-  Sotheby's...  cautionary tale here.  There are those of us old enough to remember the muted coverage of the Sotheby's-Christie's price-fixing scandal which resulted in the once-chairman of Sotheby's auction house, Adolphus Alfred Taubman, then 79, businessman, inventor and philanthropist convicted on a plea of guilty and sentenced to one year in a Federal prison and a fine of $7-1/2 million serving his time, uneventfully, as inmate 50444-054 at the FMC in Rochester, MN.  He died at age 91; he would have been 100 today had he lived.

...to summarize:...the poster had nothing relevant to add....

..."almost immeasurably beyond"...voyager 1 did u copy that?....

On 4/21/2024 at 9:33 PM, Henri Charriere said:

             

It gives me great pleasure to confirm the user handle assigned to me by eBay, "ayto-3564," depending on how you wish to regard it, has been retired or undergone a metamorphosis to "Francois Villon"  [FV]. As a practical matter, this means the # 1 ranked French 20-francs gold rooster set on the West coast Set Registry has a "new owner." (As an aside, it also means, if long-standing custom continues, my most devoted and faithful follower shall soon regale the membership with a genealogical background check on who this rascal was, when he lived and how he died. I absolutely, positively shall not vociferously deny any sludge he manages to dredge up.)  Man, I love this place!  🤣 

Postscript:  the Gold Spot Price of the F20FR GR as of Fri. April 19, 2024 is:  $446.72.

(nota bene:  this Topic and thread is posted at the sole discretion of NGC Chat Board moderation.)

..."flies in the milk"....

On 4/20/2024 at 11:00 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

It's back up for auction, at Sedwick's this time. Let's see how she does on the second go around with a change of venue. https://auction.sedwickcoins.com/item.aspx?i=52420824

Opening bid 7k, estimate 10-20k.

...if has reserve doubt it sells, if not bout same as last time....

On 4/18/2024 at 2:53 PM, VKurtB said:

Truth be told, my actual faves are high end bourbons. Something about the corn in the mash. But whatever I’m drinking, I tend to go top shelf. 

...yep ones u need a stool to get to....

On 4/18/2024 at 12:28 PM, VKurtB said:

PCGS CS is an oxymoron. You can’t put those concepts together. 

...i can tell u r a single malt guy n not a blended fan....

On 4/18/2024 at 6:10 AM, Henri Charriere said:

Granted, dated post where things move at warp speed.  By strict definition, I do not qualify as a collector.  Judging by the number of coins I have in my constructive possession, 24, I am neither a hoarder or accumulator. I do not believe I can even be termed a coin enthusiast anymore. The line of Saints appeals to a certain collector, like set registrants, with a large disposable income or unassigned assets. The above reasoning, set forth as such, comes close as one early can to identifying the type of collector I would envision a Saint enthusiast as being.  In succeeding posts focused on the '30-S low-ball, I would imagine the original owner, acquired it possibly for sentimental reasons as the ideal lucky pocket piece for quite some time, hence, my believe the original piece, clearly devoid of distracting damage, was carried by someone, at the height of the Great depression for no no ther reason than he could. It's too bad his real motive, and that of others prior to the advent of TPGS, is the real untold story here.  Many valid points raised here. A laudable attempt is made to define who collects these coins -- and why.  Unclear as to who "owns" the rights to this story now unfolding on.paralled threads, but it would clearly make for some fascinating reading to those predisposed to learning more about the history of a coin that has captured the minds of a select group of collectors who have realized there are never going to be enough finite pieces with sought-after attributes to supply insatiable demand.

I am truly sorry I missed my calling in life as an unpredictable philanthropist.

...so many words n space to say nothing...sad....