GoldFinger1969

Perks....I meant keeping the old patterns and coins that were 1st struck....being able to get a jump on early releases of new coins...picking and choosing nice-looking coins...etc..etc...etc.......that kind of thing. Nothing illegal. Suppose I worked at the Mint and was a collector. Suppose I didn't get my 1933's right away because I was short money or figured I had a year to do it. Then all the stuff happens with FDR and the Gold Standard.....and it's late 1933 or early 1934 and I say "Hey, I need 5 1933's for my collection, here's 5 1924's with no abrasion." I can't believe that the Mint higher-ups would have said no.

All you need is a FAKE-OUT that inflation is making a comeback.....10-year Treasury bond rises back to 2% (which is ridiculously low historically) and a few outliers on the inflation data front.....you get some Chinese and Indian buying and gold takes off. Then you see someone on these forums post an article or video from CNBC that gold might go to $10,000 an ounce -- remember, it went up 20-fold in 9 years in the 1970's -- and that'll be the panic you need to move gold to $3,000 or $4,000 an ounce. If it happens, IMO, it will be in a compressed time period. I'm talking weeks or months. It won't be a multi-year rise (could be, but less likely, IMO) but a rocketship. So there won't be time to get in slowly or learn about Saint-Gaudens coins and figure out the best way to take advantage. You'll either be in gold or you won't be when the train leaves the station.

Goldman Sachs is more likely to bid on MORGAN STANLEY than Morgan Dollars. He's on more solid footing when he says that holding a small % in gold makes sense. I agree, Treasury bills and bonds are the go-to during times of turbulence. But I would not be surprised to see gold have a great couple of weeks or months and making a sprint to $3,000 or even higher. Or it could flop back to $1,100 an ounce. At least bullion you know what it will be worth in the future if you're buying it at that price without much of a premium.

Thanks Roger....BTW, I had asked you before when exactly coins could have been released from the Mint. With your historical research showing that the 1933's were STRUCK on March 2nd...and available for RELEASE on March 4th....it is quite possible that some coins could have been obtained during the Hoover Administration because FDR didn't take office until later in the day of March 4th, 1933 !! And of course, exchanges weren't prohibited until April 12th, 1933 (can you confirm that was a hard directive from the Treasury Secretary or Mint Director ?). And if the PUBLIC wasn't allowed to exchange past April 12th.....what about Mint personnel, who were always helping themselves to perks ? With the 1933's worth over face value....with a pending melt coming...maybe McGann or someone else took avdvantage of an exchange of other coins for the 1933's. Unless Mint personnel were told that under NO CIRCUMSTANCES were any 1933's to leave the Mint, they could have said "Hey, no harm, no foul."

Interesting.....

Roger, I just completed the 1932 and 1933 Saint sections -- fantastic. I followed your outline of the mintage for the 1933's and actually understood the mechanics of what happened in early-March 1933. That's how good a job you did. I was prepared to read it 3 or 4 or 5 times because in the past when I've gone over the 1933 Saints, I always got confused. That's a testamant to how easy you made a complex situation. I thought I read somewhere -- I could be wrong, I can't find it now -- that the guy who authenticated the Langbord 1933's (Dr. George Hunter) had said that the dies that struck those coins were from later dies not used in March 1933. Maybe it was Greg Weinman's talk to the Pennsylvania Numismatic Society or whatever they were called a few years ago (have you seen that talk ?). For some reason, I thought I read or heard that the dies were from later in the strikings of the 1933's and not the March dies. But maybe it's not possible to track dies used to time struck ?

Where did you get this license, the state or the feds ? I thought every person was allowed to own 5 gold coins (presumably the largest, double eagles). If Izzy wanted to give 5 of his friends and their wives the maximum allowable DE's, why couldn't he buy 50 gold coins (for the 10 adults) and take them to their homes ? Ditto kids, too, right ?

I don't necessarily think he is being self-serving here. I just think he has misinterpreted volatility and falling prices (temporarily) in stocks as good for Spiderman comics, Coins, and Currency. WorldColonial said it best. The numismatic community can't handle a few hundred million a year in new money, let alone billions or tens of billions. Unless we are trying to re-create the Japanese Property Bubble, this benefits nobody.

If anything, the forward returns on stocks and bonds (well, stocks anyway) are HIGHER and BETTER after the events of the last 2 months. Hell, they were best on March 23rd at S&P 2,200. I respect Mark's opinions on grading and coins, but when he tries to make an investment case for coins and collectibles based on stock market volatility, let me off the train. He'd be on more solid footing predicting a rise in gold to $3,000/oz dragging up coins than an investment case based on volatility of other assets that pay income and dividends. Reading RWB's book on Saints with extensive price history from 1976-2015, plus my own research over the years, confirms that even if the long-term and rolling period (more important !) returns on coins/collectibles were positive and/or closer to stocks or a diversified portfolio of financial assets....the positive returns are so concentrated in a few years of gains that the inevitable market-timing means most people will not only lose but lose big.

Not only the 1933's, Roger, but ALL the dates and mintages. Granted, it turns out we really didn't need a bag of 1924's or 1927's. But imagine a bag of 1927-D's....another bag of 1931-S's or 1926-D's. etc. Add 250 coins to the Survivor numbers and all of a sudden the nearly-impossibles become just very expensive but on the market most of the time. It appears that a 1927-D goes on the market every 5-10 years or so. With another 250, you'd probably see them up for sale monthly. Plus, instead of having to be a billionaire to collect all the coins, or a very wealthy millionaire willing to spend millions, you might be able to collect all the years from 1907-33 for under $1 million. Or close to it. Wouldn't THAT be nice !!

KNUCKLEHEADS: It's so discouraging, a bit sad, and also gets me angry to think that NOBODY said in 1933 or 1934 "Hey, museums or future collectors may want a few of these coins we have here, let's grab a bag of every mintage/year and put 'em aside." We know from Roger's post on Page 3 that there was a consideration to do that, but it never got implemented. They dealt with coin collectors....museums....others who collected....and I guess it never 'clicked' in their mind that once melted, the coins are gone FOREVER.

You would think they would have all wanted at least 1 and probably a few of that year's Saints that they were testing for their own trophy cases. Certainly would have increased the surivor population. You get 5-10 of them....sell a few to your collector friends...give 'em away as gifts.....Bar Mitzvahs, Christmas, birthdays, whatever.... By 1930 or so it was pretty apparent that these coins would always sell at a premium....worst case is face value....not saying I expect someone to ask for a bag of DE's but some of these guys were millionaires at the time (when being a millionaire meant R-I-C-H) and to them buying 5 or 10 would have been pocket change. Darn !!

I'm surprised MORE collectors didn't volunteer to do the assay stuff.....they were all wealthy, didn't have jobs probably that took up their time....what better way to get 5 or 10 of any year's coin at face value ?

Thanks Roger....I'm going to do more research on Congressman Ashbrook.

1931-D Section: I love the stories you tell about trying to track down small numbers of these 1930's Saints, Roger. You don't oversell what you aren't sure about -- i.e., whether coins were domestic or were sent overseas and then came back -- but you give the reader facts and anectdotes and let him/her make up their mind. Question: This section mentions tracking of coins and President Hoover's mid-1932 trial balloon that we might go off the gold standard. That got me thinking.....do you have any idea of the thoughts, discussions, fears, conversations, letters written, etc....by coin collectors of this era and coin dealers who might have been thinking as they hear Hoover contemplate going off the gold standard "Hey, it might pay to stash some coins overseas" or "Hey, I better complete my collection before they make it illegal to buy gold" or "Hey, what do you guys think this means for our business/hobby?" I mean, I haven't gotten to the 1933 section yet but I can pretty much guess Israel Switt's mindset in 1932 (and maybe earlier), even before losing those 78 coins: he probably doesn't trust the government and he's probably not only hiding whatever 1933's he has later on, he probably thinks anything gold might be taken (certainly he had to think that way after he lost the 78 Double Eagles) as early as 1932. Or maybe not. But I can tell you if I were a gold collector or dealer back then, and I heard Hoover talking about an end to the gold standard as early as mid-1932 (maybe it was floated earlier, the UK got off in 1931).....I'd be not only saving up a few coins or bars, I'd probably be stashing them somewhere the govt can't find them. To Make A Long Story Short: Did these guys discuss or think about the possibility of gold and/or coin ownership changing 180 degrees ?

One thing is clear from the price grid, even for exclusive coins like super-rare Saints: Saints (and probably most coins) probably deliver a positive (if not financially-acceptable) return over a long period of time, provided you do NOT buy at an absolute peak (i.e., 1980, 1989-90).....HOWEVER....price gains are so compacted in such a short-time period that you either need luck or a very long time horizon to eak out a positive or decent return. That assumes you do not market-time an absolute or near bottom. Even the Saints that are pricey, which presumably were in "very strong hands" (i.e., folks who did not need to sell in the future for financial reasons)....had big price declines several times over the 1976-2015 time period covered in the book.

Now that's a book I can make time for as I can use it. Thanks PF ! After I buy it, refund me your take so I can apply it to that 2021 purchase of a 1907 High Relief Saint. Hey, every little bit helps......

I'm not an expert on PL/DMPL, but I agree with your observations. Question: When the TPGs give out the PL/DMPL designation, they are comparing it to the coins of that era, right ? Because I just bought a Proof Modern coin and it's super-reflective and I've never seen a Morgan anywhere near as reflective as that. In fact, come to think of it, I'm surprised the DMPL or DM designation isn't on modern coins because they are so reflective and black. Mine's a PF70, bought it at FUN.

That's fantastic, Roger....shows all the different sections. I know a few people were wondering what the layout was. The COMMENTARY section is usually much larger that what was shown above, if anybody is interested. It can sometimes run 2 pages or so. Combined, each yearly coin or mintmark review can run 7-10 pages on average.

Yeah, I could....probably better/easier than scanning the pages because that would damage the book to use my printer/scanner and have to bend the book and then "crunch down" on it like you would using an old Xerox machine. I'll need to get my nephew to help because converting using Adobe Acrobat and whatever OCR is are beyond my limited PC skills. I'm not worried, when I'm in the market for a coin I probably only need 1-2 of the sections and databases with me. It's not like I'd be looking at 15-20 different coins. I'm in the process now of re-creating your database and Akers' for coin mintage/survivors/rarity in Excel. Should finish the 1933 section by tomorrow, BTW.

Any questions on the Saints book, ask me on the Saints Thread. Right now I'm knocking off 20-30 pages a day, more on weekends.

JB, the book has several PAGES for each year on that year's Mintmark and Die varieties, errors, alignments, strikes, cracks/breaks, etc. all outlined. Some years have more than others. As for unknown information....some of it is 100% brand-new, but the best thing about the book is the VOLUME of information in one book. Roger uses quotes from Bowers and Akers books when appropriate, and this is good (why reinvent the wheel ?). Each coin review (by year and/or mintmark) is 5-8 pages long at LEAST. The section on the 1907 High Relief is 20 pages ! I'd say he has 4-6x what Akers has on each year/mintage, considering this book has more pages per year AND is a bigger book size-wise (and page-wise). The sections that don't deal with specific coin mintages -- like The Gold Standard or the sections he has at the end of the book (not there yet) -- are really great.

You don't have to tell me -- it's already The Bible on Saints as far as I am concerned. I just have to figure how to get the key pages on my smartphone so I can reference them when I'm looking at Saints.

Zebo, did you get the GIRL SILVER DOLLAR book ? What about the Saints book (I'm just at page 500 now) ?

Thanks Roger...hey, I loved the chapter so freakin' much that I didn't notice: the 1927-D section did NOT have a price guide. Was this deliberate or an oversight ? I'm guessing deliberate because you went into the coin-by-coin analysis which mentioned price. But I cheated and fast-forwarded to the end of the book and saw that the 1927-D is the only coin (besides the 1933) that doesn't have that nifty price grid. No big thing, just thought I'd mention it.