GoldFinger1969

The ECB tightned in 2010-11 and it precipitated the Euro Crisis. We had a 4% 10-year Treasury in early-2011....we had a tightening Fed in 2013 and 2018. I agree on balance the Fed has been spiking the punchbowl but they have also taken it away at times. And they are preparing to do so again.

The numbers disagree with you. Check out the corporate balance sheet information from the JP Morgan link I gave you -- debt levels are MUCH LOWER especially in the Energy sector where the problems were 2016-20. GMO of Boston has done extensive work on bubbles. They are value investors and believe stocks will LOSE MONEY from here. Even they say that most of the market is very pricey but NOT a bubble. To me....a bubble is one that needs to decline 75% (or more) to reach fair value. That's what the NASDAQ did in 2000-02.

I'm not a fan of BitCoin or crypto. But Tesla and some other SPACs have grown into their valuations. The bear argument on Tesla has been proven wrong -- just as it was on Amazon.com.

Stock gains or losses can't be "relative" or inflation-adjusted. While I understand the 1966-82 "Standing Still" arguments, the fact is that the 1929-32 decline of 90% even with prices falling 25% is unparalleled in our nation's history. I agree bonds are bubble-like. But that is going to provide support for the stock market. Money has to go SOMEWHERE and if you can't get 4% in a money market fund....or 5% in a bond....you'll buy stocks yielding 2-4% with the chance of capital appreciation. Economies are much less boom-bust than in 1930 or before. Plus, our knowledge of economics, monetary policy, and automatic stabilizers is much more today than pre-Keynes and pre-Friedman.

His point is that if you believe that inflation, interest rates, and ERPs are going to march slowly higher over the years it is a tight analogy. I said that valuations today are on the high side, compared to pretty low in 1946. But that does NOT mean a bubble. Tech stocks were in a bubble in 2000 because they didn't have earnings for the most part and those that did (like CSCO or MSFT) sold at 60-80x earnings. Today, Big Tech is pricey but often sells at 20-35x EPS. Not cheap, but not a bubble. Our debt is high but we are a reserve currency superpower. That means betting on our demise is going to be a losing proposition even if turns out to be right because neither you nor I will be around to see the payoff (see my GREECE analogy above). There is no doubt that without QE and the Fed buying $120 BB a month in Treasuries and MBS that headwinds appear. Of that I have no doubt. But the QUALITY of American S&P 500 EPS is the highest it has ever been. American companies are also well-poised to gather sales and profits from overseas. In 1950 only 5% of the S&P 500 profits came from non-U.S. sources. Today, it is over 40%. "Normalizing" fiscal (already being done) or monetary policy (coming) will mean SLOWER growth it does NOT mean an economic depression.

FYI....I can't post that piece likening the present period to 1946 post-WW II because PDFs can't be attached on this site. I've reached out to Deena and the NGC people but no luck yet. If some of you have some pull with them, I don't think that an occasional PDF or Word Document should be a problem here. I have some useful financial, economic, and coin pieces that can benefit our membership here and I would love to post/attach them directly to this site rather than having to use something like Dropbox or Box or whatever.

For most money managers, it is UNDER 5% and for most of those, probably closer to 0% weight in precious metals.

No they are NOT saying that. If they did, they'd probably be fired from their job and/or in violatio of their professional and/or fiduciary duty.

No they are NOT. Precious metals pay no dividends and they are considered an alternate asset class, an insurance policy, and only for a very small % of one's assets. The 2 private banks I worked at only about 5% of clients had PM exposure and for < 5% of their assets with us. Spot on here. Overall, I found your post very informative and good information except for the professional money manager part.

There are lots of different collectors. I am a "Type" collector who collects various types of coins that represent different patterns, coin types, years, commemoratives, bullion, etc. The bulk of my coins and $$$ are probably in Morgan Silver Dollars and Saint-Gaudens gold coins. After that, American Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles...plus various buillion coins and commemoratives. Every coin I own either (1) has artistic or aesthetic appeal to me (2) serves as a bullion investment if prices ever go parabolic or (3) represent a classic coin with part of American history behind it. That's what I like so I do that.

Yes, and if I could post a great research piece from Equity Strategist Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley (maybe you can find him on CNBC.com) you would see how he is talking about the end of the pandemic being the end of WW II circa 1946. That period ushered in a 35-year bear market in bonds with yields doubling from 2% in 1946 to just over 4% by the mid-1960's. Equities did very well over the period because valuations were lower, dividend yields higher, and earnings growth poised to accelerate from good-to-outstanding thanks to global growth. Today, valuations are high, dividend yields low, and earnings growth mediocre-to-OK at best with China a big question mark. Check this out: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAzMGNBhCyARIsANpUkzMis1VmsMCLxB3YVpCNFR7EC_EgKJvDY0_qY7Vi9kVPiQAaOADEodoaAoMUEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds Focus on pages 4, 5, 9, 11, 23, 47, 54, & 67. Bottom Line: Certain pockets are very expensive, even bubble-like....but large areas of the market offer good value for 3-5 years down the road. You just have to be selective. I think you overstate the potential for an economic downdraft. Even a 3rd-rate tourist-dependent Socialist economy like Greece took 30 years to collapse. I wouldn't bet against the U.S., China, or even the EU with Eastern Europe a dynamo. If a collapse does happen -- and I doubt it does -- it will be quick, just like corrections. Slow-moving trends to the downside are compressed and have been since the 1980's as information now moves at the speed of light. There are some potential pitfalls. I am not sure the Euro will hold together (they've wasted a decade of low rates to get their house in order)....China is turning authoritarian and will lose 25% of their labor force as their labor supply SHRINKS in coming decades (ours will still grow albeit at a slower rate of growth)....Asia and South America need to get themselves weened off exports and commodities, respectively. The middle class globally will DOUBLE in the next 20 years. That is HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of new consumers of goods...services....and precious metal (gold, silver collectors). Yes, many will trust deposits in banks and crypto on their smartphone but many will want a small stash of gold or silver, too. Bottom Line: I agree that valuations are rich on the equity side and super-rich on the debt side (esp. for high-yield bonds). But that doesn't mean a collapse....and even if prices FALL you could be looking at a trend that is so slow-moving that even if you get the direction right, without employing big leverage (and high risks) that trend is uninvestable. I actually attended a luncheon years ago on that topic: what do you do when you have a bear market coming but prices will correct to the downside at glacial speeds ? We are likely to see that with inflation and interest rates and maybe equity risk premiums but NOT stock prices, which tend to move lightning-quick. If I told you that bond prices were headed LOWER and yields HIGHER in 1946 for the next 35 years.....you probably wouldn't have been able to profit off that information until the late-1960's and really profit from it until the late-1970's. Stock prices go up 2/3rds of the time. Living standards, GDP, and lifespans increase over time. Technology, education, and medical progress expand and continue to be accessed by more people. "Poor" people today have running water...heat....air conditioning....smartphones.....HDTVs. 30 years ago, only the "Rich" had those things. Betting on DECADES of impoverishment is not a wise bet. Even The Depression lasted only a decade and our knowledge of economics and how to avert crises was light-years behind what we know today. We got lucky with the 1918 Spanish Flu burning itself out yet it still took 500,000 American lives out of 105 million. Betting against America has been a losing proposition. I think it will remain so.

You are correct, there has been a financialized collecting premium as coins become more specialized with more accurate grading (good) and hyped-up labels (bad). But net-net, I think it's BETTER today because things are more transparent. I can get dozens of price quotes for a generic 1924 MS65 Saint or several quotes in the last month for a more specialized 1923-D MS66 CAC Saint. That wasn't the case 25 years ago and would take you days of calls or driving around 40-50 years ago. You make a fair point, at the same time, lousy coins today are more easily ID'd. So people are paying up more for quality, CAC or CAC-like higher quality coins within a particular grade. Relying on a Red Book from pre-1970 or pre-1986 (TPGs) is light-years different than today. You really needed to be an expert and spend lots of time to justify what were relatively high prices for some coins, even thought the absolute price level might have been lower than today. I think once the TPGs standardized grading in 1986/87 buyers became more confident that they were buying accurately graded or at leaast market-acceptably graded coins. A TPG might be off by 1 grade, MAYBE occasionally 2 grades...but not 3 or 4 or 5 or more. If a dealer said a coin was AU-58 and a buyer said it was EF-40, no transaction would take place before the TPGs. Even among veterans here at the NGC Forums (or other coin sites)...when you have GTG Threads or a coin that folks are asked to grade, even veterans with DECADES of experience in that particular coin are often off by 1 or 2 and sometimes more increments. It's simply never has been nor ever will be an exact science. Even CAC, standing behind their grades with $$$ and John Albanese's well-deserved reputation and penchant for being a tough grader of gold coins, has been known to have a blooper every now and then. I don't think that the collapse in the "asset mania" (you mean stocks and bonds and maybe collectibles and crypto ?) will impact coins because neither the underlying metal prices nor the numismatic values have had an extended rise. You could make a stronger argument that we are an out-of-favor-sector and $$$ should rotate into our group like a stock sector that sits out a bull run or bubble mania. Previous "coin manias" occurred in the 1970's when gold and silver went up 35-40x.....1985-1990 with TPGs and Wall Street rumours fueling a 400% rise in 4-5 years.....and MAYBE 2002-12 as gold went up 6-fold and some sectors overshot to the upside on expectations of greater PM gains which never materialized and bullion, numismatic, and traditional American coins proceeded to go into a bear market for 10 years.

Auctioned, online websites, whatever...point is, if you don't want to pay numismatic premiums above PM spot prices, then that's someone's choice. Isn't mine, but to each his own......

That is a a lousy pic (blurry, no zoom capability), but I find the close-up and zoom shots of the HA and GC auctions to be light-years better. I'm not really a fan of TrueView, though it does highlight some blemishes. I really want a pic from a smartphone 4K setting that shows the coin as my eye would see it, not a photography that is altering various features.

To each his or her own. If you don't want to pay above bullion value, that's your choice. And you can argue with the grades or fair value for specific grades. But there is scarcity value in many of those coins for their particular type, grade, and year.

Nice, Ed.....it's whatever YOU like. I have never spent Big $$$ on an expensive numismatic coin as for the most part they all will track the price of gold somewhat. Obviously, if I bought a mostly numismatic coin like an MCMVII HR Saint it probably goes up if gold goes to $3,000 an ounce but nowhere near the leverage and many other variables compared to buying 1924 or 1927 Saints or even that 1923-D I paid $3,500 for (which wouuld certainly go up if not dollar-for-dollar). I HAVE purchased lesser-priced coins and commemoratives that trade a big premiums to their underlying metallic value, like the National Park Foundation coins I cited above. To me, they are pieces of art and I like them for their historical and artistic features. I'd never buy dozens of them to play a rise in silver or gold prices. Just 1 or 2 or 3 of them in various high grades, usually PF70 or 69. The 5-ounce silvers for the National Park Foundation are tougher to find but I see them now going for under $200 which isn't bad. It's still a 75% premium to the silver price, but you do get a beautiful coin/commemorative and the larger size makes the features on a 70 or 69 really stand out compared to the 1-ouncers.

Modern Silvers: Those National Park Foundation commemoratives continue to sell for nice prices. All PF70 Ultra Cameo.....a Barber 1 ounce sold for $89/$100......an Indian Head went for $185/$208.....and a Winged Liberty $79/$88...Winged Liberty Reverse Proof $113/$127. Newbies and Covid stay-at-homes buy these coins when they can't buy more expensive Morgans and other silver coins, let alone gold.

Auction Results: Recent GC activity had an MS-66 1927 Saint go for $3,400/$3,825 (1 bid)...and that MS67 1924 Saint finally got 1 bid and sold for $12,000/$13,500...a 1923-D MS66 Saint sold for $4,800/$5,400 (I bought one even nicer IMO 2 years ago at FUN for $3,500). A 1908 NM MS-66 OGH got lots of bids and went for $3,118/$3,507, which I thought was kinda low.....an MS66+ 1908 NM Saint $3,400/$3,825 but only 1 bidder. Finally, an AU58 1927 Saint went for $1,900/$2,137 as a bullion substitute with gold trading at about $1,800 2 weeks go.

UPDATE: After being able to come here directly and staying logged-in (presumably a "leftover" from a formal login in an Incognito Chrome Tab) for the last week or so....today I had to login manually...and got caught in the Registry Loop. So I had to open another incognito tab and login there. Went perfect again. I'm not an expert on temp files, cookies, and all that ....but it clearly seems to be some bug between this site and some browsers like Chrome. If this site underwent a software change a few months ago, that would probably explain it.

My health has been a problem lately so I may just do NYINC this year. I live in the NY area but really was hoping to do FUN after meeting lots of NGC and CT friends at FUN 2020.

Of the 907 PCGS (915 with +) 1908 No Motto MS67's....804 are Wells Fargo and 103 non-WF....so the population went up an extraordinary 8-fold with that hoard. Of the MS68's, you were at 3 and 99 WF for a total of 102. Imagine owning one of those and seeing the population expand 30-fold !! Finally, all 10 MS69's are WF -- there were no other MS69's previously. For the NGC population census.....320 MS67 1908 NM's......and 879 WF MS67's......for MS68 No Mottos, it's 16 regular and 144 Wells Fargo.

MS67 Population Census for Saints: Someone asked how many MS67's were there.....a total of 1,346 across all 3 Types from PCGS with 41 plus coins and 120 higher; NGC has 1,961 at MS67 or higher. 1924.......PCGS: 132 (includes +) .....1 higher..... NGC: 216 and 3 1926.......PCGS: 5 (none higher)............ NGC: 9 and 0 1927.......PCGS: 33 (includes +).......1 higher.... NGC: 62 and 0 1928.......PCGS; 113 (none higher).......... NGC: 103 and 0 I'm sure there is lots of double counting so maybe reduce the numbers by 30-40% ?

I think it's because the posting of the numbers can sometimes aid in slab or coin fraud using legit certification numbers but illegitimate slabs/coins. I think NGC's site even restricts random look ups of certification numbers unless you are a member.

The minimum price wasn't reached -- no bids. Here they are: https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1029487/1928-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-PCGS-MS-67 https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1053938/1924-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-PCGS-MS-67

GC shows you how many bids and how many bidders. Not sure HA does that, I'll have to check.