GoldFinger1969

Only one 1933 Saint, as our fellow poster and colleague has told us. There are lots of Picasso's or Monet's or whatever. That $18 MM for the 1933 is still only a 7% annual return for the previous owner. Nothing like the 1970's, 1980's commemoratives, the 1989-90 price spike, etc. So I'm not sure how dependent coin prices and/or trophy coin prices are influenced by the Fed. Don't get me wrong....higher asset prices in general and super-low rates HELP other assets including coins, directly or indirectly. But I don't see a price boost akin to what we saw in TSLA stock....or Covid-19 stock plays that are now down 75-90% in 6 months....or 80th floor Manhattan apartments....or sports teams (Rob Walton & the Broncos). But I do see your point in general, WC.

I guess it depends on ego and willingness and ABILITY to lose $$$. If Hetty Green were a coin collector today, she'd be a super-cautious buyer. Less so than her son who was an actual coin collector. I know nothing about "Elite Collection" or any group he may represent. But he's made some very high-profile purchases and is still buying....maybe $30 MM spent so far (probably higher). Now, if EC or his group have a liquid financial net worth of "only" $250 MM then they probably are paying very close attention to market prices as a drop in coin prices can occasionally cause a big drop in net worth (see: McNall, Bruce ). OTOH, if that net worth figure is $5 billion....their past and future coin purchases are merely a rounding error. For those of you who are sports/baseball fans, just look at how the New York Mets payroll has operated under the wealthy Wilpon/Katz families....vs. the wealthy Steve Cohen family. Wilpon/Katz had most of their net worth in the Mets especially after they lost large sums with Bernie Madoff. OTOH, Steve Cohen is a super-successful hedge fund manager whose net worth EXCLUDING the $2.6 BB he shelled out for the Mets exceeds $12 BB. Cohen might earn 10X what the Mets might lose from his hedge fund and investments in a good year (Wilpon/Katz could not run the Mets at a large deficit -- maybe any deficit -- especially after Madoff). However, Cohen could care less if the team loses $50 MM this year or $100 MM especially if his hedge fund earns him a few hundred million, maybe even a billion dollars. Of course, he does care about a large sum like $50 MM or $100 MM (even to a guy with a net worth approximately $15 BB). But he is keeping score as they say with the Mets not on the income statement and balance sheet but in the standings and playoffs and World Series totals. Similarly....the wealthier a collector is, the more they can collect for their record in the historical annals rather than worry about if they make or even lose money. Most of these high-end collectors are super-wealthy and super-smart businessmen who probably don't need to be told that they'll struggle to get more than a 5-7% return in the aggregate on their coin purchases. Buying trophy real estate...a 6th home....art.....coins....vintage cars....if you can afford them, chances are you really don't care what they are worth or re-sold for in the future. As someone who has worked in 2 Private Banks with HNW and ultra-HNW individuals, let me say everybody is different but you would be surprised what the super-wealthy blow their $$$ on without giving it a second thought.

(1) Agree (2) Yes...otherwise you need to be very good at market-timing. Even then, the lack of dividends/interest paid by coins makes long-run returns comparable to stocks highly unlikely. (3) Do they get paid for the use of their name or is it more of an honorary kind of thing ? Payment could be considered a conflict of interest on re-graded or newly-graded coins. And does a guy like Bob Simpson REALLY need a few bucks for lending out his name ? (4) I don't know about an asset bubble....coins didn't really take off like tech stocks when the Fed kept rates pegged at 0.25%. Gold did very little....major U.S. coin types didn't see any price spikes....and final sales for trophy coins like the 1933 Saint or the 1908-S Norweb Saint generated returns of around 7% (as I have posted here before)

For an MCMVII High Relief, I believe the 1970 Red Book had it listed at $900 in what would today be called low-60's MS (I think it was called BU back then). I'm typing this away from my home so if I am wrong I'll correct it later. Plenty of prices from auction sales over the decades for the 1907 Saint High Relief. I know the price of an MCMVII HR ($20 face) spiked up to $30-$35 upon release in 1907-08.....then it fell back to like $22-$25 in the early-1920's....by 1950 the price was $100-$150 depending on the condition. So it rose steadily up to 1970 even as the official price of gold was flat...an 8-10 fold increase in price in 20 years as coin collecting and the popularity of the Saint series in general and the High Relief in particular got lots of new fans. BTW, I believe that the 1907 UHR was valued at about $2,500 - $3,000 in 1950. But couldn't you say that collectors -- especially young and novice and non-dealers -- didn't KNOW which coins were the equivalent of 68's vs. 64's back then ? And since one dealer writing "64" on a 2x2 meant as much as another one writing "68"....it wasn't until you had neutral (?) arbiters assigning grades that you had more transparency AND folks willing to pay more $$$. And since many of these coins had always been affordable to young/novice/non-dealer collectors....once financialization began to creep in and then the grades got assigned later....prices rose. For many, they were STILL affordable and hence you had all that demand for formerly "cheap" U.S. coinage and the price began to rise (at a faster rate than you saw during The Baby Boom years of 1945-1980).

I would agree with your numbers as being very accurate or at least in the ballpark. Where would you put the gold bullion buyer direct from the Mint who also may buy from an LCS, online, and maybe even attend a coin show ? This is where I came from: an occasional buyer of gold coins who then learned about pre-1933 gold....commemoratives.... foreign gold coins.....etc. Yes, loss hate is greater than gain love. But I think that it matters whether someone has a few thousand dollars a year after expenses....tens of thousands....or hundreds of thousands. You are also now for the first time seeing the Middle Class get substantial inheritances/estates from family members. Don't discount those windfalls being spent on investments and collectibles (at least by those who don't blow it on a new Porsche and trips to Vegas ). Can't speak on world/ancient coins as I'm out of my element there...but I definitely see what you are talking about with U.S. coins, especially with those I have interest...and one in particular that I (eventually) want to buy: the 1907 MCMVII High Relief Saint. That is one coin I repeatedly see called "overpriced" given the population and survivor numbers....but I believe it's a unique coin with great historical value, sought after by high-end and Type collectors. Add in "strong hands" by folks who INHERITED their coins and have no intention of selling (maybe their kids or grandkids will feel differently )...and you have a coin with decent but not surplus availability and hence the coin's price remains elevated. Plus, all MCMVII's see their prices get "dragged up" by the trophy prices paid for the really exceptional coins by price-insensitive collectors. I'm not sure what regular-issued small currency U.S. coins match the MCMVII High Relief in terms of historical uniqueness; maybe the 1909 Lincoln Cent ? First year of issue for Franklin, SLQ, or Washington coins ? Most of the expensive small currency U.S. coins I read about seem to be super-high grade or error coins but admittedly I don't spend much time following the series aside from what I read about here and on other forums.

Probably because of the fall in stock and bond prices....the group that buys bullion is in the net worth categories that are most affected by the markets. The super-rich don't regularly buy bullion...it's the upper middle-class, professionals, and "working rich" who are the most active buyers.

For dealers or the public ? Should be able to get a hard number on dealers and compare to January FUN shows. Not sure how Summer FUN compared to January FUN pre-Covid but I assume it was 10-20% lower in dealer attendance.

If you have a smartphone, use the PANORAMA feature to get lots more width and wide-angle shots of the entire bourse.

I buy a DE on average every few years. Tough to come up with thousands of dollars unless I kick-*** in the stock market. I guess you could say I get a new DE a bit more frequently as I've had Corvettes (once ! ). My goal is to get a new Corvette with Double Eagles in it.

Yes, excellent point....I've posted the PCGS 3000 Index here a few times. I think the investment angle was periodically mentioned after WW II as occasional error or rare coins were found by some lucky kid or adult and they made a great score. Of course, the 1962 Morgan Silver Dollar bonanza comes to mind. Not sure what you mean by this....do you mean that coins are expensive relative to other forms of wealth and it's difficult to sell those to buy coins, compared to 30 or 50 years ago ? Are you saying a coin is selling for 3x the expected market price ? Maybe the printed prices are outdated or recent demand for the coin has materialized and driven up the price ?

It's a unique coin among the Saint-Gauden and Double Eagle sereies -- indeed, ALL coins -- because it has a base of support that includes non-coin buyers who own it as an artistic masterpiece.

You know I agree with you on the HARD EVIDENCE not being there. It's mostly circumstantial that I am referring to.

Without paying attention to the specifics, criticism should certainly be allowed. I'm not sure if bringing in the government to evaluate hobby standards is wise. They have better things to do and we can self-police through the market.

You mean for forum posts....or grades/labels on coins ?

Their loss is our gain. They not only treated long-time veterans who spent thousands of dollars with PCGS shabbily -- like newcomer trolls -- they also deleted valuable threads like the Joe Bonano Omega High Relief.

True, I'm just going by the most likely or most popular narrative. Also, we still don't know (and probably will never) if it was taken out in 1933/34 or 1937. We can speculate if Izzy told his daughter Joan before he passed on. Judging by the posts by Roy Langbord, he does not have any "smoking gun" to answer the question of how his grandfather got the coins.

That should cross 6-figures....Flat Rim & CAC.....maybe $120,000 - $150,000 ?

Silvergold, what's up with your DE purchase/exchange ?

Gold Rooster collection, right ?

It was a 1933 like the current one...."sneaked" out most likely by Israel Switt. But it wasn't graded and I have seen no description. Logic would dictate that the coin was uncirculated and probably close in grade to the Elite coin. The Langbord Ten had one Details coin; all the others were MS-64 and above.

You mean they assume he had one (I guess he did for a while) ? Or they just compute the registry points through the 1932 Saint ? And why are patterns included -- a bonus ? They're NOT technically "coins" ? Only pattern that should count is the 1907 UHR, IMO.....at least it is "related" to the MCMVII HR. The other patterns have no circulated coins based on their obverse and reverse.

The Elite Collection -- being assembled by a poster here by that name who has contributed nicely to these forums -- will probably add to the top ranking once completed. In fact, whoever owns the 1933 Saint in the future is almost certain to be ahead of the Eliasberg Collection because if they can afford the 1933 Saint they can certainly afford top-coins in other years/mints. I'm not a registry guy, so I don't know how much having or not having the 1933 Saint helps/hurts your registry point total. With only a single 1933 Saint, unless the current or future owner(s) want to sell it, even a billionaire can't get another one (unless/until the others are released). Here's a good question: if you went just for AU-58 coins or low-MS coins before scarcity value hit...excepting the 1933 Saint....how much would it cost to assemble all the Saint-Gaudens DEs ? Obviously, a fraction of what the top collections are spending but I still think it would be low-7 figures when you add in the 1927-D and a few others.

A bit less activity ending the past Sunday....looks like MS-66 commons (1924's, 1908 NMs) still going for about $3,500 (w/BP), give or take 3-5% if condition warrants. A 1924 went for $3,450 as did a 1908 NM....another 1924 went for $3,630 (all figures include BP).

Wolf, it is one thing to have a single or a few PF or MS70 coins in a nice holder. I have some silver coins -- 1ounce and 5 ounce -- in nice holders, including some of the Saint-Gaudens silver coins. I probably would add some 1 oz. and 5 oz. lunar coins down the line, too. However, decide if you really need or prefer just 1 or 2 or 3 of them...or dozens of them. If the latter, it's a much bigger money-loser. And that is regardless of whether you BUY them graded or submit for grading. Welcome to the forum, BTW.

We better stick to the topic or the mods will put us all on Double Secret Probation !!