Top Pop and understanding Price guide vs auction sales and what if a coin doesn't have a price guide value but is rare. 0

[zadok]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:39 AM, Jason Abshier said:

@J P M I’d say the Top pop “US coins” hold more merits (harder to get) compared to a World coin that much easier to get the Top pop …. That wasn’t the case for me last night on heritage auctions … I was bidding on 4 different lots Top pop German coins (1 or 2 of them were 2nd best not really top pops) …. It was Signatures series night I was bidding like a heavy hitter over a couple grand on each coin I really wanted for my “life long collection” (coins I put away in my collection that will never ever be for sale again nor will ever see market again until the day I pass on) ….

Man ! I got my butt beat bad in Live bidding I had to pull out it just got way way to extreme for what I wanted to pay for each coin … they drove the prices through the roof it was probably most intense bidding wars I’ve been in for long while on German coinage , new prices levels I haven’t seen increase for long while once sleeper coins were awakened again last night through heritage auctions …. Just hope I get a 2nd chance at them coins again someday in future they are on my hit list just need pack a some more firepower next time they show up for sale 

 

On 8/18/2023 at 10:39 AM, Jason Abshier said:

@J P M I’d say the Top pop “US coins” hold more merits (harder to get) compared to a World coin that much easier to get the Top pop …. That wasn’t the case for me last night on heritage auctions … I was bidding on 4 different lots Top pop German coins (1 or 2 of them were 2nd best not really top pops) …. It was Signatures series night I was bidding like a heavy hitter over a couple grand on each coin I really wanted for my “life long collection” (coins I put away in my collection that will never ever be for sale again nor will ever see market again until the day I pass on) ….

Man ! I got my butt beat bad in Live bidding I had to pull out it just got way way to extreme for what I wanted to pay for each coin … they drove the prices through the roof it was probably most intense bidding wars I’ve been in for long while on German coinage , new prices levels I haven’t seen increase for long while once sleeper coins were awakened again last night through heritage auctions …. Just hope I get a 2nd chance at them coins again someday in future they are on my hit list just need pack a some more firepower next time they show up for sale 

...most of the US market isnt even aware that certain foreign coins have surpassed US prices for comparable coins...areas that once were obscure n barely collected now demand 4 n 5 figure prices...the "top pops", fueled mainly by registry sets, totally ignore any price guide figures, i recently paid 14 times the price guide for a coin that i "needed", totally illogical Spock would say...the fallacy bout top pops is getting too sucked in with "finest known" these coins r "finest certified" its the finest unknowns that will bite u in the arse....

[Jason Abshier]

On 8/18/2023 at 1:27 PM, zadok said:

...been there done that...the real question u have to ask urself..."Which bothers u the most, the missed opportunity of losing the coin or buyers remorse if u overpaid??"...answer that n u know what u should have done....

I’d be telling a big lie if I said I didn’t over pay for certain coins in my collection . Then again I have no intentions of selling them anyways they sit in my collection never see market again …. Other coins I have flipped in on trades for upgrades , but most of the stuff I’ve got winning through bids are my keepers … to answer your question last night’s bidding wars on heritage hit me with “missed opportunities” then again I got the chance to watch a sorry high winning bidder have to pay out the high BP ! Ouchie …. That may or may not have affects on current coins I collect if another one happens to pop up for sale or Bid in the same grade it’s going to drive the prices upward based on last current bid price…  how much more ? Who knows but it usually goes up after that rarely will it fall downward not much tho depend on coin or grade … but I get what what you’re saying I’ve had my fair share of it as well 

[J P M]

On 8/18/2023 at 1:27 PM, zadok said:

...been there done that...the real question u have to ask urself..."Which bothers u the most, the missed opportunity of losing the coin or buyers remorse if u overpaid??"...answer that n u know what u should have done....

On my nickels I set my mark at 30% and I walk ..If it is a hard to find coin I may go to 50% but that's it. then I walk....That's why I still have a lot of dates to fill..LoL. On my Morgan's I was getting the easy MS ones at 30 and 50 % but in the last year because of the tougher dates I have been running between 60 and 80% of high retail. My No 1 rule is...There will always be another coin down the road to bid on, if I live long enough to see it. 

[zadok]

On 8/18/2023 at 6:41 PM, J P M said:

On my nickels I set my mark at 30% and I walk ..If it is a hard to find coin I may go to 50% but that's it. then I walk....That's why I still have a lot of dates to fill..LoL. On my Morgan's I was getting the easy MS ones at 30 and 50 % but in the last year because of the tougher dates I have been running between 60 and 80% of high retail. My No 1 rule is...There will always be another coin down the road to bid on, if I live long enough to see it. 

..."always" is like "never", difficult words to retract...i once waited 35 years to buy one coin, it only came back on the market after the owner had passed n it wasnt on the market for almost 80 years when u purchased it....

[EagleRJO]

On 8/18/2023 at 6:41 PM, J P M said:

On my Morgan's ... tougher dates I have been running between 60 and 80% of high retail.

By "high retail" do you mean the PCGS guide prices, which are almost always greater than the NGC guide prices - sometime by a significant amount.

I have been bidding at around 75% to 85% of the NGC guide prices, tempered with recent auction sales, to plug holes in my complete Morgan collection for the last 6 months or so.  Pretty slow going, but I have hit about half of the dozen or so more expensive ones I was missing, and I think I will end up skipping one.

On 8/18/2023 at 6:41 PM, J P M said:

My No 1 rule is...There will always be another coin down the road to bid on, if I live long enough to see it. 

Good rule, as it seems being patient on the ones I am going after as we have discussed in the past is paying off in the long run.  I lost count on the number of coins I have passed on or under bid.

[Jason Abshier]

Most of my German coins I have to really study the auction prices. Most of NGC and Krause price guide is just for reference to me not really a price point NGC basically only goes up to MS63 a lot time they don’t have listed prices for German proof coins… I always make offers if I’m buying if I’m buying directly I try stay on lean 10%-20% below what that last price was going for sometimes I get it sometimes I don’t … it’s how it goes other time I’m stuck paying that price or little over … however the Bidding on certain higher up coins …. The price is not really available it’s more based on how much someone willing to really pay for it that’s what I like about world coins sometimes it’s can really surprising to see what something will really go for unlike US coins it’s pretty much solid price is price point within a ball park everyone has easy access to price guides , auction reports , Grey sheet and so on narrows down what one should really pay out for a certain coin