Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[World Colonial]

On 7/9/2023 at 11:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You saying the price has held up over the last few decades (I don't track Nickels) ?  This is a hard coin....even improperly cared for, there might be lots more that grade Superb Gem or higher, no ?

Since the initial bubble in the early 60's, to my knowledge it has, though not adjusted for price changes.  Except for the price of the "grade rarity" MS-67 FS which has crashed and burned but is still way overpriced.

I just checked the PCGS pop report since it seems to be preferred for modern US coinage.  Maybe 10 years ago, this coin in MS-67 FS was a pop 6 and one sold for $17K at some point on Heritage, an astronomically ridiculous price for such a common coin.  Now, the count is 44 with 10 more as a 67+ whereas before, there were none.  (Can't even remember when "+" was introduced.)

There were also 513 in MS-66.  Now the count is 991 with 48 more as a "+".  Several thousand more as a 66 without FS. 

Sure, some duplicates but can't be that many proportionately since the price difference has shrunk dramatically.  Probably more in 67 looking for a 68 which will probably appear at some point.

Coin Facts lists a 4/22 sale as a 67 at $360, only a 98% decrease from the Heritage sale at $17K.  A 67+ at $1110 in 7/21. $75 to $164 in 66 in the last year.

This is why I don't think any should sell for more than the grading fee.  It's an extremely common coin and there isn't any practical difference between any of these grades (or a few lower) either, whether with FS or without it.

[cladking]

On 7/9/2023 at 5:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Like other similar period key and semi-key dates, I don't consider the price low for the supply.  Last I checked, PCGS had graded over 500 FS MS-66 and there is a huge supply in lower grades, more graded by NGC, and probably far more outside of a holder than in one for all grades except MS-67.

This was many years ago, but it was a $100+ coin at the time.  Like practically every post 1933 non-commemorative US coin, it's one I expect to sell for less than the grading fee or a nominal premium to silver spot decades from now.

Every coin from 1933 to '65 was hoarded.  Some like the '38-D half were so hard to find for the few hoarders that most escaped but they were all hoarded.  

In those days standards were higher so most of the coins were reasonably well made and most coins existed in a narrow range of quality which caused collectors to not differentiate so much between good quality and lesser quality.  After 1964 very few coins were hoarded and most of those set aside were cents and some years nickels.  Other coins were clad and people nor collectors hoarded clad coins.  Partly because quality of clads especially in the early years was abysmal in most cases.  Every coin existed in a huge range of quality with most being extremely poor.  Principally they didn't hoard coins after 1964 because people then did not collect these coins.  They are considered common junk and to this day they have low prices because they are still considered common junk.  Ironically, most nickels made after 1964 are less common than the '50-D in BU or better grade.  But can often be purchased by the roll for a few dollars because there are so few collectors that even these scarcer coins have low prices.  FS coins are nonexistent for some dates.  Almost all dates before 1999 when quality began improving are scarce in MS-67.

One of the more remarkable drops would be the 1960-D sm dt cent.  This coin commanded $20 per roll in 1960 which is ~$250 in today's money and is now selling for about $1 per roll.  

 

When everybody wants the same coins the prices soar leaving less money and less interest in everything else including even scarce coins.  

 

[cladking]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:41 AM, World Colonial said:

 

This is why I don't think any should sell for more than the grading fee.  It's an extremely common coin and there isn't any practical difference between any of these grades (or a few lower) either, whether with FS or without it.

If there's no practical difference between grades than why do only the finest MS-66's get sent in to try for a 67?   Why do people grade coins at all?  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 8:41 AM, World Colonial said:

I just checked the PCGS pop report since it seems to be preferred for modern US coinage.  Maybe 10 years ago, this coin in MS-67 FS was a pop 6 and one sold for $17K at some point on Heritage, an astronomically ridiculous price for such a common coin.  Now, the count is 44 with 10 more as a 67+ whereas before, there were none.  (Can't even remember when "+" was introduced.)THAT

THAT'S the big risk, new coins coming out that increase the population at the high-end.  Any idea what the price is now for an MS-67 FS ?  I'm going to guess that with 7X as many coins available the price went from about $17,000 to closer to $5,000 ?

I don't know what condition this coin was traded in pre-TPG in the early-1960's, but if it went up to $100 back then in a bubble-peak, after the bubble burst, what did the price settle down for what was probably I guess the equivalent of an MS-65 coin ?  We talking $25 or $5 ?

I'm always fascinated to see what happens to prices of coins during and after bubbles and to see where they are decades later.

[GoldFinger1969]

I have some 30-year old articles talking about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90.  I thought I would post some of the declines of coins noted at that time and also give an updated price from recent sales in the last year or back a few years to see how they have done over the last 25-30 years (I used the Heritage Archive to get a feel for recent prices).

If any of you have knowledge on the coins I cited, please post.   Some of the coins I am completely unfamiliar with as to their pricing history and stories behind interest in them over the decades.  I also realize that it's tough to get a 100% apples-to-apples comparision because you never know if the price quotes back then were the high water-mark and/or if today's prices include special features.  For the most part, I tried to look at multiple recent sales prices without any special desiognations (CAC, VAM, DMPL, etc.) to be accurate to the original listing decades ago.

Article comments italicized...my comments and recent prices in blue.   Comments VERY welcome. 

 

No-Motto 1858 Liberty Seated Quarter….On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet listed this coin at $14,900 in MS-65 as certified by either PCGS or NGC.  The Insider’s Guide to U.S. Coin Values lists the same coin’s value in 1993 at less than half that amount–just $7,000. 

Looks like MS-66’s last few years (2021-23) sell for ~ $4,500 but MS-65’s were $2,000 or so 5-10 years ago (mid-2010’s).  65’s were $2,500 or so 2005-07. 

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet assigned a value of $555 to an 1880-S Morgan silver dollar certified as Mint State-65 by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America (NGC). Today, that same coin is valued at only about $75. 

Looks like a generic Morgan SD common has come back to about $175-$200 as of early-2023.

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet value for a no-motto Liberty Seated half dollar graded MS-66 by the professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) was a whopping $39,000. Today, that coin is listed for only about one-third that amount. 

No date given for this coin (maybe they implied common year ?), but No Mottos seem to be about $5,500 which would be another 60-70% decline from the 1993 level.  $10,000 if you have special features or CAC apparently.  Can't believe how some of these U.S. Small Denomination coins got driven up in the 1980's !! 

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet assigned a value of $4,060 to a Saint-Gaudens double eagle graded MS-65 by NGC.  My book, The Insider’s Guide to U.S. Coin Values, lists it at only $1,200.

Saints I know pretty well, these have come back to $2,500 since gold is up 5-fold since then.  Big difference is that the premium back then to gold was about 700-800% which is insane.  Today, it's maybe 20-30% for an MS-65.

The price declines of common-date Morgan dollars have been every bit as dramatic for MS-66 and MS-67 specimens as they have for MS-65 pieces. In MS-66, the price has plunged from $1,400 to $200, and in MS-67 the drop has been from $3,950 to $680. 

For the 1880-S….66’s are $350 give-or-take in early-2023 and 67’s are about $900.  Both could be another 20% higher.

I found this very interesting because by going to the MS-67 level, you really are going for conditional scarcity.  The article was dated 1993, BTW so a 4-year decline was cited.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

The cost of the W mint quarter from 2019 and 2020 has declined significantly from when they were first released.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:45 AM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

The cost of the W mint quarter from 2019 and 2020 has declined significantly from when they were first released.

What type of decline ware we talking about ?

Also, new releases sometimes have problems meeting initial demand but then months later the problem is resolved.  That's more of a supply issue.

The coin examples I gave above were all trading for a long time before they ran up.  Their price spikes were definitely DEMAND related.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:54 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What type of decline ware we talking about ?

I mean that I used to see raw W quarters listed and selling in the $30-35 range in 2020, and now that same coin is $10-15 raw.  Graded examples (MS65-66) can be had for ~$35 now.  It was new, it was hot... W quarters are still popular, but no where near as hot as they were when they were released.  

I am sure demand has a lot to do with it, but I also think there are collectors who get "new coin fever."  This leads to an early bubble in demand, and then a correction.  The HOT coins seem to be much more impacted by this phenomenon.  Anytime I see a coin come out blazing, I watch it like a horse race... and like most horse races, the early lead tires and fades.  It's very hard to run a wire-to-wire victory.

[J P M]

On 7/10/2023 at 10:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

THAT'S the big risk, new coins coming out that increase the population at the high-end.  Any idea what the price is now for an MS-67 FS ?  I'm going to guess that with 7X as many coins available the price went from about $17,000 to closer to $5,000 ?

I don't know what condition this coin was traded in pre-TPG in the early-1960's, but if it went up to $100 back then in a bubble-peak, after the bubble burst, what did the price settle down for what was probably I guess the equivalent of an MS-65 coin ?  We talking $25 or $5 ?

I'm always fascinated to see what happens to prices of coins during and after bubbles and to see where they are decades later.

MS 67 and up are hard coins to find and when you do they are more money. The NGC value if even close for the MS66 1950D is $85 then it jumps to $800 just to give ya some idea..

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 9:51 AM, cladking said:

If there's no practical difference between grades than why do only the finest MS-66's get sent in to try for a 67?   Why do people grade coins at all?  

You asked me a rhetorical question.  I will now ask you one.

You have two possibilities (and only two) from which to choose, as there is no third option.  Which one is it?

Marketing and financialization as I have written for years.

Or

Collectors are a lot more "sophisticated" since the late 80's and/or experienced a collective epiphany when they miraculously discovered that these coins (those with one a few more points on a label) are so much better than their predecessors believed.

No, these aren't actual questions.  That's why it is rhetorical.

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 9:47 AM, cladking said:

Every coin from 1933 to '65 was hoarded.  Some like the '38-D half were so hard to find for the few hoarders that most escaped but they were all hoarded. 

I can agree with this comment.  So has every US modern since 1999.  Some between 1965-1998 too.

On 7/10/2023 at 9:47 AM, cladking said:

Principally they didn't hoard coins after 1964 because people then did not collect these coins.

Yes, that's what you keep telling me.

On 7/10/2023 at 9:47 AM, cladking said:

FS coins are nonexistent for some dates.  Almost all dates before 1999 when quality began improving are scarce in MS-67

This "scarcity" is a US invention, as in "made up".  That's part of what I am was getting at in my last post replying to yours.  Any coin is "rare" or "scarce" if the criteria is narrow or arbitrary enough.  This "scarcity" uses the most liberal scarcity standards on the planet (those in US collecting) combined with a comparison to coins that are literally among the most common coins on the planet (1933-1964 US coinage).  It's "participation trophy" just for showing up.

On 7/10/2023 at 9:47 AM, cladking said:

One of the more remarkable drops would be the 1960-D sm dt cent.  This coin commanded $20 per roll in 1960 which is ~$250 in today's money and is now selling for about $1 per roll.  

The only thing remarkable about the price history of this coin is that it ever sold for $20 per roll.  It's only a matter of degree versus the 1950-D nickel.  There are potentially millions of CH BU or better of these cents still left.  The opportunity cost of owning it now and recently is immaterial.

On 7/10/2023 at 9:47 AM, cladking said:

When everybody wants the same coins the prices soar leaving less money and less interest in everything else including even scarce coins.  

There is nothing unusual about it, especially since the price differences between the lopsided proportion of post 1933 US coins are immaterial.  Except for US invented specializations, none of these coins are scarce though some TPG labels meet this definition.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:15 PM, J P M said:

MS 67 and up are hard coins to find and when you do they are more money. The NGC value if even close for the MS66 1950D is $85 then it jumps to $800 just to give ya some idea..

But that's way down from the $17,000 price and even if that had special characteristics and was a bubble peak price on Heritage.....an MS-67 FS probably sold for a few thousand dollars minimum, right ?  So....$800 or a bit higher today is still a BIG DROP from those low-pop, bubble days. 

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:56 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But that's way down from the $17,000 price and even if that had special characteristics and was a bubble peak price on Heritage.....an MS-67 FS probably sold for a few thousand dollars minimum, right ?  So....$800 or a bit higher today is still a BIG DROP from those low-pop, bubble days. 

See my prior post.  The last MS 67 FS listed in Coin Facts sold for $360.  67+ FS, $1100+.

There are going to be some duplicates in the data but even the PCGS raw numbers alone aren't low for a coin in a specific grade for a "grade rarity".  That's 54 at PCGS now.

NGC has graded 1888 as a 67 and 130 more as a 67+.  5570 and 380 for these two grades w/out FS as a 66.

Edited July 10, 2023 by World Colonial

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:56 PM, World Colonial said:

The only thing remarkable about the price history of this coin is that it ever sold for $20 per roll.  It's only a matter of degree versus the 1950-D nickel.  There are potentially millions of CH BU or better of these cents still left.  The opportunity cost of owning it now and recently is immaterial.

It appears that a bunch of small denomination regularly issued U.S. coins were subject to real or imagined scarcity and/or Treasury Hunt pricing for a while.  The 1950-D Nickel and now the 1960-D "Small Date" Penny seem to be ones mentioned frequently here.  If you have any articles on these that discuss their story, please post links.  Otherwise, I will hit my Red Book and also Google and try and get up to speed on their story (I am already familiar with the 1903/4-O MSD's once the Treasury released silver dollars in the early-1960's).

Any other regularly issued U.S. coins that have this speculative history attached to them in the last 60-100 years ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, World Colonial said:

See my prior post.  The last MS 67 FS listed in Coin Facts sold for $360.  67+ FS, $1100+. There are going to be some duplicates in the data but even the PCGS raw numbers alone aren't low for a coin in a specific grade for a "grade rarity".  That's 54 at PCGS now. NGC has graded 1888 as a 67 and 130 more as a 67+.  5570 and 380 for these two grades w/out FS.

It's just hard to belive that without any major hoards being found that coins today that sell for a few hundred dollars were once valued in the thousands, maybe even low-5 figures.

Wow........

Edited July 10, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:15 PM, J P M said:

MS 67 and up are hard coins to find and when you do they are more money. The NGC value if even close for the MS66 1950D is $85 then it jumps to $800 just to give ya some idea..

NGC and PCGS have graded over 2000 in 67(FS).

Where are you looking?

I have never heard of even one US coins with this supply being hard to buy.

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It appears that a bunch of small denomination regularly issued U.S. coins were subject to real or imagined scarcity and/or Treasury Hunt pricing for a while.  The 1950-D Nickel and now the 1960-D "Small Date" Penny seem to be ones mentioned frequently here.  If you have any articles on these that discuss their story, please post links.  Otherwise, I will hit my Red Book and also Google and try and get up to speed on their story (I am already familiar with the 1903/4-O MSD's once the Treasury released silver dollars in the early-1960's).

There was widespread roll hoarding up to the early 60's to my recollection though rolls of all (or at least most) 1933-1964 US coins were and in many instances still are available.  Much of the supply of high quality coinage (most IMO) comes from this practice.

Otherwise, some of it was due to supposedly "low" mintages.  (No, these mintages aren't actually low.  Try counting to these numbers.)  The 50-D is one example.  In the 80's, I also read this of the 1955 quarter and half (maybe a few others), though this was mostly from rolls.  I don't remember if it was the P, D, or both.

Morgan dollars was a UST hoard, totally different.

On 7/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Any other regularly issued U.S. coins that have this speculative history attached to them in the last 60-100 years ?

1931-S cent for one.  Mintage is 866,000.  I'd guess the average grade is AU now (minimum) with most of the original mintage (the vast majority) still around.

I haven't heard of any others prior to 1933 outside of Morgan dollars and US gold which were for different reasons.

Post-1965, I'd place the '72 DDO cent, '82P no MM dime, and Wisconsin Leaf SQ in the same category too, but only the last coin experienced a bubble which has burst.  The other two have a stable price history.

[J P M]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:05 PM, World Colonial said:

NGC and PCGS have graded over 2000 in 67(FS).

Where are you looking?

I have never heard of even one US coins with this supply being hard to buy.

Perhaps I should have said it different. Most MS 67 coins are hard to find at auction cheap, the price jump from 66 to 67 is substantial. Now except for SP and PR  MS 68, 69 and 70 are even worst or nonexistent 

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:03 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's just hard to belive that without any major hoards being found that coins today that sell for a few hundred dollars were once valued in the thousands, maybe even low-5 figures.

Wow........

Depends what you mean by "hoards".

Seems you are thinking in the context of Morgan dollars or common US classic gold.

Supposedly, some dealer (or dealers) tried to buy up most of the 31-S cents, but I don't know if the story is true.

Otherwise, it's predominantly a large number (thousands to hundreds of thousands) setting aside individual coins to a few rolls.  Remember, it was predominantly low budget collectors doing it (presumably), though presumably also financial speculators for a few.

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 12:47 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

I mean that I used to see raw W quarters listed and selling in the $30-35 range in 2020, and now that same coin is $10-15 raw.  Graded examples (MS65-66) can be had for ~$35 now.  It was new, it was hot... W quarters are still popular, but no where near as hot as they were when they were released.  

I am sure demand has a lot to do with it, but I also think there are collectors who get "new coin fever."  This leads to an early bubble in demand, and then a correction.  The HOT coins seem to be much more impacted by this phenomenon.  Anytime I see a coin come out blazing, I watch it like a horse race... and like most horse races, the early lead tires and fades.  It's very hard to run a wire-to-wire victory.

This is an example of a "low" mintage that isn't actually low. 

Considering how common any "W" quarter actually is, the prices you quote are hardly cheap.  It's more common than over 99% of all coins ever struck in equivalent quality.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, World Colonial said:

See my prior post.  The last MS 67 FS listed in Coin Facts sold for $360.  67+ FS, $1100+. There are going to be some duplicates in the data but even the PCGS raw numbers alone aren't low for a coin in a specific grade for a "grade rarity".  That's 54 at PCGS now. NGC has graded 1888 as a 67 and 130 more as a 67+.  5570 and 380 for these two grades w/out FS.

Interesting...maybe a 68 today is equal to a 67 years ago ?

When you combine raw hoards hitting the TPGs plus gradeflation and regradings, you can have a lethal combination that increases low-pops a ton.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:20 PM, J P M said:

Perhaps I should have said it different. Most MS 67 coins are hard to find at auction cheap, the price jump from 66 to 67 is substantial. Now except for SP and PR  MS 68, 69 and 70 are even worst or nonexistent 

68 must be super-expensive or maybe even MS-67+ FS CAC ?

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Interesting...maybe a 68 today is equal to a 67 years ago ?

When you combine raw hoards hitting the TPGs plus gradeflation and regradings, you can have a lethal combination that increases low-pops a ton.

There isn't a 68 for the 50-D at either service, yet.

I don't believe there are many duplicates for this type of coin.  For the 50-D, the price difference between a 66(+) and a 67 isn't that large.

Edited July 11, 2023 by World Colonial

[J P M]

TPG have not given out many MS 68 and 69 and 70 are barely even on the lists at PCGS and at NGC some earlier coins and then not until after 2005 are any posted.

Edited July 11, 2023 by J P M

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:31 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I have some 30-year old articles talking about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90.  I thought I would post some of the declines of coins noted at that time and also give an updated price from recent sales in the last year or back a few years to see how they have done over the last 25-30 years (I used the Heritage Archive to get a feel for recent prices).

Meant to comment on this post but forgot.

Quite confident what you are describing was the result of a communication limitation which has since been eliminated.  Prior to "mature" TPG population reports and the internet, the vast majority of US collectors presumably badly underestimated survival (rates), including in better quality. 

It's the same sentiments I read from South African based collectors for their coinage when Union (1923-1960) was my primary interest.  Much of this coinage is legitimately scarce or at least hard to buy, but not nearly as scarce as they thought or as hard to buy as it used to be.

The first few years (maybe somewhat more than five) after I resumed collecting, I'd see "old" (mostly 18th century but some earlier too) world coinage from Europe in "gem" or "choice UNC' and thought it must be at least scarce due to the age.  But it isn't.  Much or most of it is quite common.

South Africa had its own TPG bubble (which has since burst - in 2011) for essentially the same reason as the US in 1989.  Other countries haven't due to a lack of financialization of their collecting, though I'm not that familiar with China which may yet burst.

But generically, only a very low proportion are nearly as scarce as most people seem to think or believe.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/11/2023 at 10:14 AM, World Colonial said:

Quite confident what you are describing was the result of a communication limitation which has since been eliminated.  Prior to "mature" TPG population reports and the internet, the vast majority of US collectors presumably badly underestimated survival (rates), including in better quality. 

Absolutely.  The early population reports showed big increases.  Folks who bought coins that they thought was less than 10 coins in a certain condition would find out that there was 30-50 a few years later.

Here's some of the article -- from 1993 -- and then I have the updated population numbers for NGC:

"Let’s first consider the case of the 1880-S silver dollar. This is what is known as a “common-date” Morgan dollar–one that not only had a relatively high mintage (8.9 million), but also has a high surviving population in mint condition. As of Jan. 1 of this year (1993), NGC had graded 3,442 examples of this coin as MS-65 and 622 as MS-66.

The figures are even higher for the 1881-S Morgan dollar: As of Jan. 1, NGC had graded 5,459 examples of this coin as MS-65 and 767 as MS-66. And PCGS has certified even more coins of both dates and both grade levels.  

The price declines of common-date Morgan dollars have been every bit as dramatic for MS-66 and MS-67 specimens as they have for MS-65 pieces. In MS-66, the price has plunged from $1,400 to $200, and in MS-67 the drop has been from $3,950 to $680."  

Now.....we have just under 39,000 1880-S's in MS-65 and just under 14,000 for MS-66, up 12-fold and 20-fold, respectively in 30 years !!!   

For the 1881-S, just under 59,000 in MS-65 and just under 20,000 for MS-66.......10-fold and 25-fold increases in 30 years !!!   

These numbers to me are ASTOUNDING even taking into account that more coins were bound to come out over time !!!!  

Edited July 11, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/11/2023 at 10:09 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Absolutely.  The early population reports showed big increases.  Folks who bought coins that they thought was less than 10 coins in a certain condition would find out that there was 30-50 a few years later.

Here's some of the article -- from 1993 -- and then I have the updated population numbers for NGC:

"Let’s first consider the case of the 1880-S silver dollar. This is what is known as a “common-date” Morgan dollar–one that not only had a relatively high mintage (8.9 million), but also has a high surviving population in mint condition. As of Jan. 1 of this year (1993), NGC had graded 3,442 examples of this coin as MS-65 and 622 as MS-66.

The figures are even higher for the 1881-S Morgan dollar: As of Jan. 1, NGC had graded 5,459 examples of this coin as MS-65 and 767 as MS-66. And PCGS has certified even more coins of both dates and both grade levels.  

The price declines of common-date Morgan dollars have been every bit as dramatic for MS-66 and MS-67 specimens as they have for MS-65 pieces. In MS-66, the price has plunged from $1,400 to $200, and in MS-67 the drop has been from $3,950 to $680."  

Now.....we have just under 39,000 1880-S's in MS-65 and just under 14,000 for MS-66, up 12-fold and 20-fold, respectively in 30 years !!!   

For the 1881-S, just under 59,000 in MS-65 and just under 20,000 for MS-66.......10-fold and 25-fold increases in 30 years !!!   

These numbers to me are ASTOUNDING even taking into account that more coins were bound to come out over time !!!!  

There’s nothing hard to understand here. In the past, there were quite a few dates of Morgan dollars that were (correctly) deemed not worthy of being graded. As time and marketing have marched on, there’s no longer such a thing. If it’s a Morgan, any piece of common garbage ends up in plastic. I still don’t get why. Never will. 

[World Colonial]

On 7/11/2023 at 11:09 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

These numbers to me are ASTOUNDING even taking into account that more coins were bound to come out over time !!!!  

Not really, considering the size of the GSA hoard.

Also, the vast majority of US coins from the late 19th century forward are either common or very common, even in grades close to at this level.  Not mostly common compared to these Morgan dollars but still common.

[World Colonial]

On 7/11/2023 at 3:10 PM, VKurtB said:

There’s nothing hard to understand here. In the past, there were quite a few dates of Morgan dollars that were (correctly) deemed not worthy of being graded. As time and marketing have marched on, there’s no longer such a thing. If it’s a Morgan, any piece of common garbage ends up in plastic. I still don’t get why. Never will. 

Me either.

I've stated here before that the most common dates are actually bullion coins, even in a grade like MS-65.  In "high" quality, no way anywhere near enough actual collectors for the supply.  Hundreds of thousands to over 1MM for many dates. With .7236oz of silver, maybe $50 tops and only that due to the ridiculous premiums on ASEs now.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/11/2023 at 3:10 PM, VKurtB said:

There’s nothing hard to understand here. In the past, there were quite a few dates of Morgan dollars that were (correctly) deemed not worthy of being graded. As time and marketing have marched on, there’s no longer such a thing. If it’s a Morgan, any piece of common garbage ends up in plastic. I still don’t get why. Never will. 

I think with a few thousand population in the early-1990's you could make a case for a "common" Morgan selling for a few hundred dollars, maybe even low-4 figures.  Remember, you have TENS of thousands of Morgan collectors (maybe more) so if your population is only a few hundred or a few thousand, price is going to have to spike.  OTOH, with TENS of thousands -- and those above are just NGC Populations -- demand gets satiated.

Remember, we have 3 levels of collectors:  registry players (who want the best and many will pay up).....type and serious collectors (who are more price sensitive with specific coins or in the aggregate)...and the investment group (folks who pay minimally for numismatic premium and are more into the bullion itself).

How many of each determines how high pricing can go for select coins.