Central States inventory 0

[powermad5000]

Since "whatever" can be posted here, I am looking for some opinions on what I feel was a "weak" level of inventory at the Central States coin show this week. I noticed several tables that were empty as it seemed some sellers decided to back out of the show, and the ones that were there, seemed to have a lot of empty spaces in the cases on day one. Even those sellers that I visit every time at the show had little in the cases to garner my interest. I didn't make many purchases this year.

I was wondering if anyone else attended noticed this and if not, what would explain why the inventories of the sellers may have been low??

[Teddy R]

I was a little disappointed. Granted, the items I am looking for are tough pieces, not impossible but not on every table either. I was told by more than one Dealer that the items I inquired about went fast to other Dealers. I was there Thursday but I guess you need to do the early bird thing.

That being said, I'll go again next year. I did pick up 5 coins.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Teddy R

[Coinbuf]

I did not attend the show, however, from the glowing reports on the PCGS forum your situation seems to be in the minority.   Having said that, I'm always wondering if some of the show reports are somewhat slanted on purpose.   What day(s) did you go?  From my experience going to multi-day shows so much of the material is bought up by the dealers and whales before the public even has an opportunity to set foot on the bourse floor.   And dealers leaving early is certainly nothing new, those who really only cater to the deep pocket collectors have little incentive to stay.   Those dealers get all the buying and selling they expect to do in the first day or two and bail, and there is really nothing the show promoter can do about it.   If the promoter actually tried to penalize those who leave early the next show would be a ghost town as so many dealers would boycott in protest.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/30/2023 at 3:42 PM, powermad5000 said:

Since "whatever" can be posted here, I am looking for some opinions on what I feel was a "weak" level of inventory at the Central States coin show this week. I noticed several tables that were empty as it seemed some sellers decided to back out of the show, and the ones that were there, seemed to have a lot of empty spaces in the cases on day one. Even those sellers that I visit every time at the show had little in the cases to garner my interest. I didn't make many purchases this year. I was wondering if anyone else attended noticed this and if not, what would explain why the inventories of the sellers may have been low??

I can't speak to inventories but it was my understanding -- and nothing hard or scientific or quantifiable, for sure -- that prior to Covid that Central States had been losing to The Big 3:  FUN, ANA, and Long Beach. 

I recall reading some posts indicating that total tables were down from 2015 or 2005 and the like.

If somebody has attended all 4 shows over time, I'd sure like to hear your impressions about dealer and public attendance at those 4 coin shows. 

[RWB]

It is said that some shows have solved much of the "Early Dealer Flight" problem by putting armed guards at the exits and forcing all dealers to remain until the show closes at 6pm Saturday. This has led to the sale of fake beards, boxes with false bottoms, and several mass shootings, but nothing unusual.

[powermad5000]

On 4/30/2023 at 4:17 PM, Coinbuf said:

What day(s) did you go?

I went on Thursday, the first day open to the public and I hit the bourse floor as soon as it opened. I would think as a dealer you would want all your inventory out on the first day for people like me who are going to come to the first day only.

[Teddy R]

We saw unoccupied tables Thursday with showcases and lights on them. Can anyone that was there on Friday or Saturday say if they were occupied on those days? Wondering if they just sold to other dealers on Wednesday, then bailed?

[VKurtB]

On 5/1/2023 at 6:56 AM, Teddy R said:

We saw unoccupied tables Thursday with showcases and lights on them. Can anyone that was there on Friday or Saturday say if they were occupied on those days? Wondering if they just sold to other dealers on Wednesday, then bailed?

Sometimes life interferes and for one reason or another, dealers don’t show. Who knows? Maybe they were incarcerated. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 7:56 AM, Teddy R said:

We saw unoccupied tables Thursday with showcases and lights on them. Can anyone that was there on Friday or Saturday say if they were occupied on those days? Wondering if they just sold to other dealers on Wednesday, then bailed?

How many tables ?  I saw a few empties at FUN 2020 but you're talking 1 or 2 maybe 3 tables out of 600-800.  Nothing major.

There's always going to be a few last-second cancellations.

[Coinbuf]

On 4/30/2023 at 8:43 PM, powermad5000 said:

I went on Thursday, the first day open to the public and I hit the bourse floor as soon as it opened. I would think as a dealer you would want all your inventory out on the first day for people like me who are going to come to the first day only.

As a collector I agree with you, but dealers are not guaranteed sales to the public at a show.   So, if on Wednesday the other dealers buy up say 50% of the items in your case that they put away to fill want list items for their customers and you are making a decent percentage profit on those sales, you are likely to sell then rather than wait and hope to sell 10% of those items to the public at a slightly higher markup.   The thing that I really hate is that this trading between the dealers just drives up the cost of coins for no real benefit except to the three or four dealers who act as middlemen before the coin gets to a collector.   Again, I don't like how this works and I think the average collectors are the ones getting the shaft at shows because of this dealer to dealer action, but this is the way it has worked for decades.   It is just one of the reasons why I don't see shows as all that important for many collectors.

The one aspect of shows that is advantageous for collectors is the ability to forge relationships with other collectors and dealers, and the opportunity for young collectors to view a massive amount of coins in one place.   Shows are a great place to hone your grading skills and really understand just how truly common most coins, even those key dates, are.   It is possible to find a coin you have been searching for at a show that you may not see on-line or at an auction due to the sheer number of dealers that you may not even know exist.   That was the case for me at the Phx ANA, the one coin I bought there was from a fellow I do not recall having seen before at other shows like Long Beach and would not have known about if I hadn't gone to that show.   But I see those as the exceptions rather than the rule.

Edited to add:  What I have written may come off as very anti dealer, and in some ways I am.   However, my collection is better today through the connections and efforts of a few dealers, so I do understand and value what a dealer can bring to the table, but I also understand the negatives of the business side of numismatics.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Coinbuf

[Precious Time & Metals]

On 4/30/2023 at 6:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I can't speak to inventories but it was my understanding -- and nothing hard or scientific or quantifiable, for sure -- that prior to Covid that Central States had been losing to The Big 3:  FUN, ANA, and Long Beach. 

I recall reading some posts indicating that total tables were down from 2015 or 2005 and the like.

If somebody has attended all 4 shows over time, I'd sure like to hear your impressions about dealer and public attendance at those 4 coin shows. 

I attended all those shows this year.

Ranked

1st fun

2nd central states 

3rd ANA

4th long beach (this was do to world show being the same days, it was ghost town like)

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 4:23 PM, Coinbuf said:

As a collector I agree with you, but dealers are not guaranteed sales to the public at a show.   So, if on Wednesday the other dealers buy up say 50% of the items in your case that they put away to fill want list items for their customers and you are making a decent percentage profit on those sales, you are likely to sell then rather than wait and hope to sell 10% of those items to the public at a slightly higher markup.

Not being a dealer or having that mentality, is it really only a "slightly" higher markup ?  Instead of getting retail prices (let's say, 100 cents on the dollar) if they sell wholesale and only get 85 cents on the dollar, how can they make money unless they bought it much lower because PM prices were lower or they got a steal by buying way below FMV ?

We know the dealers can't buy close to retail because then THEY won't be able to mark-up and be competitive.

[Teddy R]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

How many tables ?  I saw a few empties at FUN 2020 but you're talking 1 or 2 maybe 3 tables out of 600-800.  Nothing major.

There's always going to be a few last-second cancellations.

I didn't count but I'm going to say a dozen give or take

[powermad5000]

Agreed @Teddy R. And there were a handful of sellers with cases between 1/2 and 3/4 empty. I posed this question to the forum as I have gone to Central States for the past about six years in a row and always left walking to my car and lamenting that I just don't have enough money to buy everything I wanted in there. And I did quite well in years past and made some good deals with some of the sellers. This year, I was walking to my car lamenting that I didn't find much that I wanted to buy and I guess I will just save the cash I didn't spend and bring it to the Worlds Fair of Money.

[Coinbuf]

On 5/1/2023 at 4:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Not being a dealer or having that mentality, is it really only a "slightly" higher markup ?  Instead of getting retail prices (let's say, 100 cents on the dollar) if they sell wholesale and only get 85 cents on the dollar, how can they make money unless they bought it much lower because PM prices were lower or they got a steal by buying way below FMV ?

We know the dealers can't buy close to retail because then THEY won't be able to mark-up and be competitive.

Well I'm not a dealer either so my thoughts are biased on my observations at shows in the past and conversations with dealers.  there are situations where a dealer might be willing to accept a lower profit to ensure a sale.   Take this time of year, perhaps said dealer just paid a big tax bill and is in a cash poor situation.   It might make sense to take the sure sale to another dealer at a price closer to cost than risk not selling that coin at all, the old bird in the hand thing.   Also, if a dealer is buying for a well heeled customer he may have a "blank check" and can afford to pay close to retail and still mark up the coin to sell to his customer.   Just a couple of thoughts on how these dealer-to-dealer sales can still benefit both dealers even if the sale is close to a retail figure.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Coinbuf

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/1/2023 at 8:26 PM, powermad5000 said:

Agreed @Teddy R. And there were a handful of sellers with cases between 1/2 and 3/4 empty. I posed this question to the forum as I have gone to Central States for the past about six years in a row and always left walking to my car and lamenting that I just don't have enough money to buy everything I wanted in there. And I did quite well in years past and made some good deals with some of the sellers. This year, I was walking to my car lamenting that I didn't find much that I wanted to buy and I guess I will just save the cash I didn't spend and bring it to the Worlds Fair of Money.

This is a problem that was exaccerbated by Covid....lots more people bidding online (HA, GC, Ebay)....travel/entertainment spending down by dealers meaning they can be more competitive on price...lots of dealers said they couldn't get enough coins in 2020, 2021, and even 2022.

Our hobby has gotten a bit crowded. 

[Teddy R]

I would still like to hear from those that attended Friday and or Saturday

[powermad5000]

On 5/1/2023 at 11:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Our hobby has gotten a bit crowded.

I was wondering if this wasn't part of it. I am unaware if there is any real data on the current number of collectors and how many have just come into the hobby or if there are just educated guesses.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/2/2023 at 8:16 PM, powermad5000 said:

I was wondering if this wasn't part of it. I am unaware if there is any real data on the current number of collectors and how many have just come into the hobby or if there are just educated guesses.

We've discussed that and regrettably the ANA and PNG don't really keep or divulge key numbers.  And show organizeres are reluctant to give out accurate attendance figures.

What you CAN do is guestimate attendance for those who attend the same show year-after-year....see if any change in table inventories took place for dealers....and then see what happens NEXT year.  If the show is well-attended and profitable, folks will come back.  Both dealers and the public.

We do know that at-home interest has increased as both HA and GC saw registered buyers and interest soar during 2020-22.

I would note the 15% premium I recently got for a TPG-graded bullion coin (1915-S MS-63 OGH) in 3 years time since I got it at FUN 2020.  That's the kind of coin you would expect to move if our hobby sees a big influx and/or higher demand and/or higher gold prices. 

The tough part is apportioning it among those variables.

Edited May 3, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 5/2/2023 at 7:16 PM, powermad5000 said:

I was wondering if this wasn't part of it. I am unaware if there is any real data on the current number of collectors and how many have just come into the hobby or if there are just educated guesses.

The ANA membership is higher than it was on 1964. On the other hand, aside from The Numismatist publication subscriptions are waaaaay down. Just this month, Coins magazine has been discontinued in favor of a partial subscription to Numismatic News, the one each month with the price guide included. Attendance at shows is BOOMING (sorry, @GoldFinger1969, it just is.)

Inventories are another matter. There’s still excess cash out there causing people to drive collectibles bubbles. I see a mini-crash in our future. Demand right now is inordinately high. Not sustainable longer term. I still see rolls of 2011 ASE’s coming to market from the last “stupidity boom”.

Edited May 3, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/3/2023 at 11:40 AM, VKurtB said:

The ANA membership is higher than it was on 1964. On the other hand, aside from The Numismatist publication subscriptions are waaaaay down. Just this month, Coins magazine has been discontinued in favor of a partial subscription to Numismatic News, the one each month with the price guide included. 

Interesting and not shocking.

On 5/3/2023 at 11:40 AM, VKurtB said:

Attendance at shows is BOOMING (sorry, @GoldFinger1969, it just is.)

Don't apologize, I'm not unhappy.  The trend BEFORE 2020 was that smaller shows -- like the Westchester Quarterly Show -- were on the ropes and even some larger ones had seen dealers and attendance drop.  Pent-up demand and new entrants into the hobby seem to have spurred more demand.

With fixed costs for shows, a few extra dozen or hundred attendees can make a big difference in profitability for the show organizers AND the dealers. 

On 5/3/2023 at 11:40 AM, VKurtB said:

Inventories are another matter. There’s still excess cash out there causing people to drive collectibles bubbles. I see a mini-crash in our future. Demand right now is inordinately high. Not sustainable longer term. I still see rolls of 2011 ASE’s coming to market from the last “stupidity boom”.

We are NOTHING now compared to bubbles in the past like 1989-90 or 2007-08 or even 2011.  Not that I think those should be the warning thresholds, but I believe when you see people on CNBC asking about Saint-Gaudens coins in particular instead of just gold in general....then it's getting close to the 9th inning with the Fat Lady warming up. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 5/3/2023 at 2:16 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Interesting and not shocking.

Don't apologize, I'm not unhappy.  The trend BEFORE 2020 was that smaller shows -- like the Westchester Quarterly Show -- were on the ropes and even some larger ones had seen dealers and attendance drop.  Pent-up demand and new entrants into the hobby seem to have spurred more demand.

With fixed costs for shows, a few extra dozen or hundred attendees can make a big difference in profitability for the show organizers AND the dealers. 

We are NOTHING now compared to bubbles in the past like 1989-90 or 2007-08 or even 2011.  Not that I think those should be the warning thresholds, but I believe when you see people on CNBC asking about Saint-Gaudens coins in particular instead of just gold in general....then it's getting close to the 9th inning with the Fat Lady warming up. 

Puccini’s Turandot is being staged soon in Colorado. Nessun dorma is one of the most compelling solos in all of opera.

Edited May 3, 2023 by VKurtB

[Teddy R]

A Dealer has posted their CSNS experience in another section of the Forums. The post confirms my suspicions. This is a Tuesday/Wednesday wholesale event and some dealers hang around Thursday/Friday/Saturday to offer slow moving inventory and double markups. Looks like my first CSNS will be my last. I'll be money ahead just giving a dealer my want list.

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Teddy R

[VKurtB]

On 5/4/2023 at 5:58 AM, Teddy R said:

A Dealer has posted their CSNS experience in another section of the Forums. The post confirms my suspicions. This is a Tuesday/Wednesday wholesale event and some dealers hang around Thursday/Friday/Saturday to offer slow moving inventory and double markups. Looks like my first CSNS will be my last. I'll be money ahead just giving a dealer my want list.

 

I never go to ANY major coin show primarily to shop. I go to live auctions for that. I go to major coin shows to learn, exhibit, judge exhibits, interact, participate in committee and board meetings, attend talks, and GIVE talks. Also, I work FOR the ANA at ANA shows, and work the ANA’s table(s) at non-ANA shows. I also buy at some minuscule to regional shows, but nearly never at major shows.

Edited May 5, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 5/4/2023 at 5:58 AM, Teddy R said:

A Dealer has posted their CSNS experience in another section of the Forums. The post confirms my suspicions. This is a Tuesday/Wednesday wholesale event and some dealers hang around Thursday/Friday/Saturday to offer slow moving inventory and double markups. Looks like my first CSNS will be my last. I'll be money ahead just giving a dealer my want list.

 

So I guess that CSNS is now the “host organism” for the parasite known as the PNG pre-show. The ANA used to suffer from the ravages of that blood-sucker. Careful excision of it worked wonders. Some small parasitic infection remains in the minds of former participants each August. I’m not quite certain if it’s bacterial, viral, or perhaps a spirochete. It’s nasty any way you look at it. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by VKurtB

[powermad5000]

I did see one dealer review as well and apparently they had a "low buck" section upstairs which I was unaware of. Every prior year the reason I did not go upstairs was because it was all Heritage auctions stuff and big money coins (I'm not a fan of 20% buyers premiums and I also go to the show to buy raw coins). Perhaps I missed a lot of inventory upstairs as well. But I agree @VKurtB. I noticed all of the PNG stuff going on and that wasn't like that in years past either.

[J P M]

On 5/6/2023 at 3:57 PM, powermad5000 said:

I did see one dealer review as well and apparently they had a "low buck" section upstairs which I was unaware of. Every prior year the reason I did not go upstairs was because it was all Heritage auctions stuff and big money coins (I'm not a fan of 20% buyers premiums and I also go to the show to buy raw coins). Perhaps I missed a lot of inventory upstairs as well. But I agree @VKurtB. I noticed all of the PNG stuff going on and that wasn't like that in years past either.

I love the coins I see on Heritage but not only is there a 20% fee but before you can even bid there is a $30 BP fee. I just can't do that. 

[VKurtB]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:57 PM, powermad5000 said:

I did see one dealer review as well and apparently they had a "low buck" section upstairs which I was unaware of. Every prior year the reason I did not go upstairs was because it was all Heritage auctions stuff and big money coins (I'm not a fan of 20% buyers premiums and I also go to the show to buy raw coins). Perhaps I missed a lot of inventory upstairs as well. But I agree @VKurtB. I noticed all of the PNG stuff going on and that wasn't like that in years past either.

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/6/2023 at 7:50 PM, J P M said:

I love the coins I see on Heritage but not only is there a 20% fee but before you can even bid there is a $30 BP fee. I just can't do that. 

At times it is prohibitive, other times it is worth saving the effort and time to find the right coin.

[VKurtB]

On 5/7/2023 at 8:19 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

At times it is prohibitive, other times it is worth saving the effort and time to find the right coin.

To me, it’s ALWAYS prohibitive. But then, I VERRRRRY seldom ever buy already slabbed coins, other than the odd find in a low-priced slab box. The vast majority of my slabbed coins were bought by me raw, submitted by me, mentally undergraded by me, graded higher by NGC (yes, exclusively so), and stuck away by me.