1878-CC Morgan Dollar 0

[EagleRJO]

I have been looking for an AU-58 1878-CC Morgan for a bit at around $400 +/- and came across this NGC slabbed one graded AU-58 for $425, which seems like a price where they may accept a lower offer, although it seems like it may be a bit scuffed up for an AU-58.  Greysheet lists a value of $442, NGC/PCG$ guide price would be around $400, and Redbook would be a little more than that (the higher end of between $300 for AU-50 to $475 for MS-60).  I might offer $400 and see what they say.  What do you guys think?

Edited December 14, 2022 by EagleRJO
typo & values

[JT2]

EBAY pics can be very deceiving  you can hide a ton of scratches and uglyness just by the way you turn the coin and the way the light his it....  bst to make sure they have a return policy

[RWB]

I would not call that "AU 58" -- I don't care what the label claims. (The 1921 appears to be AU-58. This coin should be almost identical.)

[EagleRJO]

On 7/13/2022 at 2:34 PM, RWB said:

I would not call that "AU 58" -- I don't care what the label claims. (The 1921 appears to be AU-58. This coin should be almost identical.)

I agree, and why I mentioned the scuff marks I see.  Maybe $350 if it's actually a lower AU?

[Nutmeg Coin]

The coin is not worth what the guy listed it for.  $325-$350 or so maybe.  These have gone up but not that much.   

[jimbo27]

this is from ebay for $462, maybe a little nicer, the pcgs ones are even more.

[Sandon]

   While I agree that the first illustrated coin should be graded lower on the "AU" scale than "58"--a "58" should appear uncirculated upon initial examination--I would not purchase any Morgan or Peace dollar at current prices.  Your $450 would have purchased an 1878-CC dollar graded MS 63 or so late in 2019 per the November/December 2019 PCGS Rare Coin Market Report, and while prices may not go back to these levels, they seem currently quite inflated for these common coins.  I have observed these "spikes" before in the early 1980s and 1990s, and those who bought at the peak were left disappointed for some years thereafter.  (My uncertified AU 50 or better specimen cost me all of $40, but that was back in 1992.)

 

[J P M]

These coins can be found as much better looking examples but it takes a bit of shopping.

[Coinbuf]

I would consider that coin as more of an AU55 or 53, pricewise that is mostly in line with the current retail market for an AU58.    I would want an AU58 to have less field disturbance than this coin and would keep looking myself, but that is just my personal choice.

[EagleRJO]

On 7/13/2022 at 5:09 PM, jimbo27 said:

this is from ebay for $462, maybe a little nicer, the pcgs ones are even more.

Yea, that one's more $ for the same TPG AU-58 label, but I agree a little nicer.

If the guy doesn't want to come down to $350 to $375 I'm gonna pass and keep looking. There is no rush, and I could always spend a little less and go with a raw one as it's not that expensive imo.

Edited July 14, 2022 by EagleRJO

[EagleRJO]

Maybe like around $300 to $350 for a raw one that may be a little better looking.

Edited July 14, 2022 by EagleRJO

[J P M]

I want to say that NGC has that coin valued at $375 and In my opinion that is a high price. The current owner wants even $50 more I would say no thanks.

https://www.ngccoin.com/certlookup/2733211-001/58/

[EagleRJO]

I was offering in the $350 to $375 range, and he didn't want to come down, Time to move on.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/13/2022 at 6:12 PM, Sandon said:

I have observed these "spikes" before in the early 1980s and 1990s, and those who bought at the peak were left disappointed for some years thereafter.  (My uncertified AU 50 or better specimen cost me all of $40, but that was back in 1992.)

The spikes then were bubbles where the prices went up 500-1,000% as I recall.  Prices than dropped 75-85% for the coins hawked by the telemarketers and gold/silver dealers.

Edited December 14, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/13/2022 at 5:12 PM, Sandon said:

   While I agree that the first illustrated coin should be graded lower on the "AU" scale than "58"--a "58" should appear uncirculated upon initial examination--I would not purchase any Morgan or Peace dollar at current prices.  Your $450 would have purchased an 1878-CC dollar graded MS 63 or so late in 2019 per the November/December 2019 PCGS Rare Coin Market Report, and while prices may not go back to these levels, they seem currently quite inflated for these common coins.  I have observed these "spikes" before in the early 1980s and 1990s, and those who bought at the peak were left disappointed for some years thereafter.  (My uncertified AU 50 or better specimen cost me all of $40, but that was back in 1992.)

 

Sandon, that’s what has me mostly on the sidelines now. I bought GSA Carson City Morgan’s for $50 in the late 1990’s. I still have the auction lists for them. Something’s out of whack. I don’t know which, but I suspect it’s now. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/13/2022 at 10:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

the telemarketers and gold/silver dealers.

… are completely irrelevant to the real world and always have been. Somebody has to pay those slick pitchmen, and it’s the customer. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/13/2022 at 9:56 PM, EagleRJO said:

I was offering in the $350 to $375 range, and he didn't want to come down, Time to move on.

If you see a coin like this in this grade pretty frequently, then I agree waiting for the price to come to you makes sense.

It's when you are paying a premium price but a coin that you like doesn't come up for sale that often that you have a tough decision to make.  And sometimes a particular coin just has great aesthetic appeal -- like a Saint with GREAT luster, for instance -- that paying up a bit more makes sense.

I waited almost 5 years before pulling the trigger on my 1923-D Double Eagle. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/15/2022 at 9:35 PM, VKurtB said:

Sandon, that’s what has me mostly on the sidelines now. I bought GSA Carson City Morgan’s for $50 in the late 1990’s. I still have the auction lists for them. Something’s out of whack. I don’t know which, but I suspect it’s now. 

Those same GSA Morgan's probably cost $750 a decade earlier. 

They collapsed in the early-1990's because MSDs doubled or tripled in a few months and quadrupled or quintupled over a year or so before the bubble burst.  PCGS MS65 common date Morgans reached at least $800, and MS64's at least $400.

Edited December 16, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 12/15/2022 at 8:57 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Those same GSA Morgan's probably cost $750 a decade earlier. 

They collapsed in the early-1990's because MSDs doubled or tripled in a few months and quadrupled or quintupled over a year or so before the bubble burst.  PCGS MS65 common date Morgans reached at least $800, and MS64's at least $400.

I was 100% on the sidelines then. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/15/2022 at 8:55 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you see a coin like this in this grade pretty frequently, then I agree waiting for the price to come to you makes sense.

It's when you are paying a premium price but a coin that you like doesn't come up for sale that often that you have a tough decision to make.  And sometimes a particular coin just has great aesthetic appeal -- like a Saint with GREAT luster, for instance -- that paying up a bit more makes sense.

I waited almost 5 years before pulling the trigger on my 1923-D Double Eagle. 

I ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS wait for the market to come to me. I don’t NEED to buy ANY coin; OTOH I NEED to pay my mortgage. Pennsylvania Deutsch have a reputation for being horrible cheapskates. I plead guilty. I’d rather fill my tank with 87 octane and rent hotel rooms than overpay for a coin. 
 

87 octane is now $2.59 here. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

HOW IT WAS, 1990:  This was an article from early-1991 talking about the bursting of the coin bubble that I saved from the Chicago Tribune and was circulated to dozens of newspapers.

COIN MARKET EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK AFTER `CRASH OF `90`

By Roger Boye, Chicago Tribune  Jan 13, 1991

Investors may confront a volatile rare-coin market this year in the wake of what some experts are calling the ''market crash of `90.''

Prices paid for coins in the ''mint state-65'' condition category fell 27.2 percent in the six months ended Nov. 30, while the coin market in general slumped 6.5 percent in that period, according to the ''Trends Index'' compiled by Coin World. The MS-65 index had spiraled higher during most of 1989 and the first half of 1990.

''Sharply dropping values of type coins (and) commemorative gold and silver coins, among others, have been responsible for the steep decline,'' wrote Keith M. Zaner, Trends editor. Zaner - whose index tracks nearly 17,000 coin values - blamed the bear market on general economic conditions and the ''cautious approach of investors and Wall Street funds towards rare coins,'' among other things.

Especially hard hit have been rarities that were authenticated, graded and encased in hard plastic ''slabs'' by companies such as the Professional Coin Grading Service of Newport Beach, Calif. During 1988 and 1989, such keepsakes were the rage of the market, often trading on a sight-unseen basis at ever-increasing prices. Some investors paid seemingly large amounts for relatively common ''mint state'' coins-often called ''generics''- merely because they were in plastic slabs.

Last October, the rare coin market ''fell out of bed, especially generic, certified coins,'' wrote long-time coin dealer Burton S. Blumert in Numismatic News. ''Dealers could not sustain their bids as sell orders flooded in.''

The soft market also has hurt the companies that for a fee-grade and slab coins. PCGS - the country's largest - evaluated 25,032 coins in November 1990, compared with 78,192 in November 1989, according to a PCGS spokesperson.

 

Some experts say that lower gold and silver prices and the crisis in the Middle East have contributed to the sour rare-coin market. Ironically, the price of silver, which recently went below $4 an ounce, could foster a business upturn at some coin shops as investors buy more silver bars and coins, thinking the metal`s value has hit bottom. In early 1980, silver sold for more than $30 an ounce. 

 

Want to double or triple your money in the rare-coin market?

 

Try tossing some quarters into a slot machine instead, where your odds probably would be better, advises Chicago author and broadcast journalist Donn Pearlman in his latest book, ''Best Buys in Rare Coins'' (Bonus Books, $8.95). Pearlman asked at least 200 hobby pros to recommend the purchase of specific coins for their beauty, importance or value potential. The suggestions, which Pearlman neatly summarizes, range from coins of ancient Greece and Rome to buffalo nickels and Morgan silver dollars. 

 

''These are coins that have built a following over the years, coins that have become popular for their own sake, not just because a few `market makers` are trying to manipulate prices for a few months to attract investors,'' Pearlman wrote.

 

He also includes background tidbits on the most recommended items and hints for effective coin buying. The book is sold in some stores or can be ordered by calling, toll-free, (1-800) 225-3775.

Edited December 16, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

I know you finance and markets guys are steeped in the “efficient market theory”. I don’t subscribe to it. I am a proponent of the “insane market theory” - i.e. the market is always nuts. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/15/2022 at 9:24 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

effective coin buying.

I read a phrase like that and I cringe. Effective? Drivel. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/15/2022 at 10:29 PM, VKurtB said:

I know you finance and markets guys are steeped in the “efficient market theory”. I don’t subscribe to it. I am a proponent of the “insane market theory” - i.e. the market is always nuts. 

I believe markets swing to excess and then mean revert.

We are seeing that now given that "cheap money" is ending and companies that were valued at $40 billion in the private/venture market are now worth under $2 billion in the public markets.

I think coins will be the best house in a lousy neighborhood of TINA, FOMO, etc. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 12/15/2022 at 9:33 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I believe markets swing to excess and then mean revert.

We are seeing that now given that "cheap money" is ending and companies that were valued at $40 billion in the private/venture market are now worth under $2 billion in the public markets.

I think coins will be the best house in a lousy neighborhood of TINA, FOMO, etc. 

And seemingly no one is seeing the dot-com bubble similarities? I can’t NOT see it. 

[EagleRJO]

By being patient I ended up getting a really nice 1878-CC PCG$ XF-45 for about $200.

Edited December 16, 2022 by EagleRJO

[VKurtB]

On 12/15/2022 at 9:43 PM, EagleRJO said:

By being patient I ended up getting a really nice 1878-CC PCG$ XF-45 for about $200.

Niiiiice. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/15/2022 at 10:43 PM, EagleRJO said:

By being patient I ended up getting a really nice 1878-CC PCG$ XF-45 for about $200.

Awesome !!  Congrats, Eagle ! 

Post the pics when you get a chance.

[EagleRJO]

On 12/15/2022 at 11:35 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Awesome !!  Congrats, Eagle ! 

Post the pics when you get a chance.

Thanks.  Here is the 1878-CC Morgan Graded XF-45 I ended up getting for the complete collection I am working on.  Still plugging away at about a dozen or so that I still need to purchase.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by EagleRJO