What's Up With Crypto? 3 3

[Henri Charriere]

Here's my take on crypto, something I know next to nothing about...

Massive carpet bombing  campaigns to stimulate speculator/investor interest... followed by a surge in prices.

Precision well-coordinated sell-offs for profit-taking... followed by surgical-strike "buy, Buy, BUY!!!" - Believe the hype campaigns to re-ignite public interest, etc., through the wash, rinse, spin cycles... and repeat.

Fair enough. Where do you stand on crypto, and why?  Pro, con or indifferent. All comments welcome.

[zadok]

On 6/16/2022 at 10:12 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Here's my take on crypto, something I know next to nothing about...

Massive carpet bombing  campaigns to stimulate speculator/investor interest... followed by a surge in prices.

Precision well-coordinated sell-offs for profit-taking... followed by surgical-strike "buy, Buy, BUY!!!" - Believe the hype campaigns to re-ignite public interest, etc., through the wash, rinse, spin cycles... and repeat.

Fair enough. Where do you stand on crypto, and why?  Pro, con or indifferent. All comments welcome.

...if clark kent knows nuf to stay away from krypto thats good nuf for me....

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/16/2022 at 10:46 AM, zadok said:

...if clark kent knows nuf to stay away from krypto thats good nuf for me....

You honor me with your presence! I appreciate your counsel. 

[GoldFinger1969]

First, I think a thread on crypto and BitCoin is relevant to gold so I hope the mods have no problem with it. 

Second....I have no idea if BitCoin is going to $500,000 or $5,000...or even zero.  Ditto the rest of the cryptos for whom a shakeout is coming.  Most are headed to zero.  I suspect that BitCoin, Ether, and a few others will gain big market share, whatever that is.

I also dislike the cryptos in the aggregate because they have clearly sucked out $$$ from gold.  

I much prefer literally holding gold or silver coins -- including classic Saints -- rather than owning some digital whatever.

[Henri Charriere]

@GoldFinger1969:

I believe at post-time, these cryptos were dropping sharply, that's why I began the thread... I was curious to see if there was somebody out there who had no problem with something evidently not for the faint-hearted--and could drop a jewel as to why. (Like you, I like mine in hand to appreciate the luster, brilliance, size, heft, etc.)

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/16/2022 at 12:28 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@GoldFinger1969:

I believe at post-time, these cryptos were dropping sharply, that's why I began the thread... I was curious to see if there was somebody out there who had no problem with something evidently not for the faint-hearted--and could drop a jewel as to why. (Like you, I like mine in hand to appreciate the luster, brilliance, size, heft, etc.)

It will be very interesting to see how the EU, crypto, the stock market, etc....all hold up when the Fed is RAISING rates and the days of EASY MONEY (good movie with Rodney Dangerfield, BTW ) are over.

It's easy for to move up in price when the Fed is printing money.  Let's see how they do when rates are rising and you can get 3% in a money market fund without ANY risk.  

 

[GoldFinger1969]

As an aside....it'll be interesting to see how gold/silver hold up, too.

Not sure how many of you follow the bond market (I manage bond portfolios) but rates have been rising bigtime in the last week and the bond market is having the worst year on record, even including the 1970's. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

Unresponsive, so far... 

[gmarguli]

They're all going to zero. It's the "uber smart" millennials that think this time it's different, that are pouring their money into this garbage.

Personally, I can't wait for all of them to crash to $0 so I can laugh at all the moronic fools that bought this utter garbage. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/16/2022 at 3:22 PM, gmarguli said:

They're all going to zero. It's the "uber smart" millennials that think this time it's different, that are pouring their money into this garbage.  Personally, I can't wait for all of them to crash to $0 so I can laugh at all the moronic fools that bought this utter garbage. 

Some are definitely headed there.  To me, they are NOT "currencies" -- they are quasi-tech digital plays.  I don't get this whole "meta" thing and the need for cryptos to buy things in an imaginary universe.

I'll wait for Holodecks like on Deep Space 9. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

I do not invest in anything that I cannot explain how the investment makes money - in one to two simple sentences (i.e. Google primarily makes money by PPC promotion, advertising, and data collection.  Fruit of the Loom sells underwear.).  If revenue generation for the investment is something I cannot understand/explain, it is not going to be a vehicle I can drive.  I do not buy NFTs for the same reason.  

I am a boring investor.  I focus on company growth forecasts (sit on earnings calls), P/E multiples, dividends, etc.  I try to have solid due diligence process around creating valuations.  I am fully ready to miss-the-boat by not jumping into items I cannot understand.  I am not ready to jump-in and take significant losses because the investment areas are beyond my comprehension. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[Henri Charriere]

@The Neophyte Numismatist Thanks, I still cannot wrap my mind around a concept reduced to pixels.

[GoldFinger1969]

Interestingly, gold turned around from mid-day losses and rallied bigtime up $40 even as everything else tanked.  As bonds rallied (yields fell), gold turned up.

Let's see if it's a pattern.  If crypto is dead with a Fed Funds rate of 3-4% and a 10-year approaching or above 4%, gold may have legs for a move to $2,200.

Edited June 16, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

Just a matter of time. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 6/16/2022 at 4:26 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@The Neophyte Numismatist Thanks, I still cannot wrap my mind around a concept reduced to pixels.

I can.  As long as I can understand how it makes money, I can valuate it.  

I will hereby publicly challenge anyone (and I mean anyone) to explain how crypto currencies generate revenue/profit in 1-2 sentences.  One catch, you can't use any derivative of speculation (i.e. it's the future of money, and all other money is going away).  How are we generating revenue today?

You may be thinking... people invest in Euros, Dollars, etc... how do THEY make money?  They don't, however, the value of a dollar is constant.  $1 = 100 x .01.  The value of currency investing comes from the forex market that position one currency's buying power against a respective other (again, one simple sentence).

If you think that crypto can/will operate in a same/similar way - it cannot/will not.  I do not need to explain this in words - the charts will tell you everything you need to know.

Edited June 17, 2022 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[GoldFinger1969]

Crytpo "currencies" are not currencies at the present time.  They are highly-volatile, speculative, digital assets. 

[zadok]

On 6/16/2022 at 11:31 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

You honor me with your presence! I appreciate your counsel. 

...counsel??...i thought this was the repartee forum....

[World Colonial]

On 6/16/2022 at 12:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Second....I have no idea if BitCoin is going to $500,000 or $5,000...or even zero.  Ditto the rest of the cryptos for whom a shakeout is coming.  Most are headed to zero.  I suspect that BitCoin, Ether, and a few others will gain big market share, whatever that is.

If any survive, it presumably will be BTC and Ether.

We've discussed this before.

Crypto is nothing, literally.  It is or may be based upon blockchain but that doesn't make it something.  I have seen comparisons to fiat currency which "metal bugs" have also claimed are nothing but these have the "hard power" of the state behind it.  Anyone thinking that's an illusion can test it and see what happens.

Fiat currency must also be accepted for all debts and any economic transactions with the government.  No one has to accept a single crypto.  Individual cryptos may have a limited supply but just like fiat, collectively it doesn't.

Crypto is a side consequence from the global asset, credit, and debt mania.  That's where the value collectively came from - from nothing - and when the mania ends, that's where it's returning.

I've given my thoughts on the mania elsewhere.

[World Colonial]

On 6/16/2022 at 8:16 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Crytpo "currencies" are not currencies at the present time.  They are highly-volatile, speculative, digital assets. 

No, it isn't.  Anything which radically fluctuates in value like that will never attain any meaningful scale as a form of payment. 

Commercially, there isn't enough motivation to accept it if for no other reason due to hedging costs and operating constraints.  From this standpoint, what I just described is no different than a foreign currency.  Companies use derivatives and their operating structure to hedge FX but it's not free and until crypto achieves sufficient scale, have no offsetting expenses to hedge their revenue.  

Once the mania ends, it won't be used for a store of value either.

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/16/2022 at 10:02 PM, zadok said:

...counsel??...i thought this was the repartee forum....

It is but you are greater than.  I abide by your counsel.  

[Fenntucky Mike]

How much does the crypto crash affect the collectibles market place? I'm going to type cast a bit and say that it will have the biggest impact on NFT's and little to none on coins. 

On 6/16/2022 at 12:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I also dislike the cryptos in the aggregate because they have clearly sucked out $$$ from gold.  

Sure seems like it, and now that money is gone. Poof! I don't know that gold rallies as crypto drops. Gold was right around the same price as it is today when BC hit its peak back in Nov, it did make a run at 2,000 in March when BC dropped 30% and was fluttering around 40k, but no real move since early May, other than slightly down, when BC jumped off the cliff again. For purely selfish coin related reasons, I wouldn't mind seeing gold pull back.  I have a feeling it will. Maybe. 

BTW, best Dangerfield movie, Back To School. 

 

[World Colonial]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

How much does the crypto crash affect the collectibles market place? I'm going to type cast a bit and say that it will have the biggest impact on NFT's and little to none on coins. 

NFT is even more ridiculous than crypto.  It's another bag of hot air destined to completely collapse.

On 6/17/2022 at 5:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Sure seems like it, and now that money is gone. Poof! I don't know that gold rallies as crypto drops. Gold was right around the same price as it is today when BC hit its peak back in Nov, it did make a run at 2,000 in March when BC dropped 30% and was fluttering around 40k, but no real move since early May, other than slightly down, when BC jumped off the cliff again. For purely selfish coin related reasons, I wouldn't mind seeing gold pull back.  I have a feeling it will. Maybe. 

BTW, best Dangerfield movie, Back To School. 

 

Have no evidence of it, but don't believe that crypto (including BTC) is bought as an alternative to gold.  Not at any scale anyway.  It's rationalized as a store of value but it's just another form of speculation based upon nothing.

Despite close to a 70% collapse, BTC is only back near (slightly above) the 2018 peak when it first hit $20K.  It still has a long way down to go, though like any other market of any size, there will be counterrallies.

[Henri Charriere]

[I keep hoping someone will drop in and say, "Q.A., they --  meaning all the other members -- have got it all wrong. They embellish! They embroider!  They EXAGGERATE!  Volatility? Where? Lack of consumer confidence? How so?"

Okay, so who's buying up all this stuff? Where's that magical Racing Form they've been consulting for top-tier investor advice?  I'll wait...]

[zadok]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

How much does the crypto crash affect the collectibles market place? I'm going to type cast a bit and say that it will have the biggest impact on NFT's and little to none on coins. 

Sure seems like it, and now that money is gone. Poof! I don't know that gold rallies as crypto drops. Gold was right around the same price as it is today when BC hit its peak back in Nov, it did make a run at 2,000 in March when BC dropped 30% and was fluttering around 40k, but no real move since early May, other than slightly down, when BC jumped off the cliff again. For purely selfish coin related reasons, I wouldn't mind seeing gold pull back.  I have a feeling it will. Maybe. 

BTW, best Dangerfield movie, Back To School. 

 

...yea but thats because u thought the "triple lindy" was a three layer doughnut....

[zadok]

On 6/17/2022 at 6:21 PM, World Colonial said:

NFT is even more ridiculous than crypto.  It's another bag of hot air destined to completely collapse.

Have no evidence of it, but don't believe that crypto (including BTC) is bought as an alternative to gold.  Not at any scale anyway.  It's rationalized as a store of value but it's just another form of speculation based upon nothing.

Despite close to a 70% collapse, BTC is only back near (slightly above) the 2018 peak when it first hit $20K.  It still has a long way down to go, though like any other market of any size, there will be counterrallies.

...rumor has it that bags of hot air mite sell in the low to mid 5 figures if they can find enuf dupes....

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 6/17/2022 at 7:06 PM, zadok said:

...rumor has it that bags of hot air mite sell in the low to mid 5 figures if they can find enuf dupes....

1

I believe the listing was eventually pulled, and am now wondering how you knew what the going rate for hot air was. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Fenntucky Mike

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

 

BTW, best Dangerfield movie, Back To School. 

 

I vote Caddyshack.

[Henri Charriere]

[FWIW:  "The Coin That Could Wreck Crypto," The New York Times, June 17, 2022, (which unbeknownst to me had a very comprehensive summary on a "stablecoin" called Tether, with a handful of references to recent related articles)].

[zadok]

On 6/18/2022 at 7:31 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

1

I believe the listing was eventually pulled, and am now wondering how you knew what the going rate for hot air was. 

...i try to stay above the clouds on these things....dryer lint n burnt toast royalties big part of my portfolio...looking into some political farts at the moment....

[World Colonial]

BTC last print $18550, down 9.35%.  Ether $960, down 11%.