Making an investment? 2 2

[VKurtB]

On 11/10/2022 at 2:52 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I am talking about absolute comparisions....the key is what time period do you use ?

Rolling time periods sees how you do by advancing the starting and ending periods 1 year each.  This eliminates selective starting and ending points.

The charts you cite are meant to be a 1-time snapshot.  You can't show the chart for dozens of time periods.  But professionals generally use rolling time periods to discuss risk-adjusted returns over time.

I look at two types of time intervals when I give talks. January 1 to December 31 for as many years back that are relevant. And 1, 5, and 10 years ago from the date I am giving the talk. When I give a talk near the beginning of the year, they’re basically the same. 

[Henri Charriere]

@GoldFinger1969:

[Guess my use of "eloquent" didn't go over well. That was a take from "Enemy of the State," when Will "slap heard 'round the world" Smith corrected the gangster who called him a shyster and said the correct term was mulignan. I recall he said, "as you so eloquently put it."   No offense given; none taken.]  

Edited November 11, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Ending bracket.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/10/2022 at 5:27 PM, VKurtB said:

I look at two types of time intervals when I give talks. January 1 to December 31 for as many years back that are relevant. And 1, 5, and 10 years ago from the date I am giving the talk. When I give a talk near the beginning of the year, they’re basically the same. 

Rolling time periods eliminates period bias.  If you were asked to compare precious metals/golds vs. stocks or bonds in 1980 and were told to use a 10-year time frame, it's going to be biased tremendously for gold.  Do the same thing in 1990 or 2000 or 2010 and the results are very different.

Rolling periods is like a best-of-7 sporting match.  A 1-period time frame is like a sudden-death playoff match. 

[EagleRJO]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:27 PM, EagleRJO said:

Nice job @Quintus Arrius if you completed Registry Sets for Roosters both here and across the street. 

I don't collect them, but I understand some are really hard to find at a reasonable price.

Would you mind sharing links to both so I can take a peek as it sounds like an awesome accomplishment, and I do find them interesting. 😉

On 11/6/2022 at 11:26 PM, Hoghead515 said:

Hes got some really nice ones competing in the registry. I usually take a look at em every once in a while. I would love to add a couple to my collection one of these days. They are a very attractive coin in my opinion. 

For those who don't know about the Registry Set that @Quintus Arriusput together with the complete 1899 to 1914 "French 20 Franks Gold Roosters" it is Ranked #1 on the PCG$ registry, and it is very nice. Since we were discussing gold coins and QA's Rooster set in this thread, I figured it would fit here sharing a link to that set so people can check it out if they want.  See the following link ... PCGS Set Registry - Rooster Roster Coin Album

[EagleRJO]

On 11/10/2022 at 5:27 PM, VKurtB said:

I look at two types of time intervals when I give talks. January 1 to December 31 for as many years back that are relevant. And 1, 5, and 10 years ago from the date I am giving the talk. When I give a talk near the beginning of the year, they’re basically the same. 

Yup, that is exactly correct and can be sliced out of the charts I posted. It is the standardized method of absolute value year-to-year comparison you will get from any reputable bullion guide.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/10/2022 at 10:52 PM, EagleRJO said:

For those who don't know about the Registry Set that @Quintus Arriusput together with the complete 1899 to 1914 "French 20 Franks Gold Roosters" it is Ranked #1 on the PCG$ registry, and it is very nice. Since we were discussing gold coins and QA's Rooster set in this thread, I figured it would fit here sharing a link to that set so people can check it out if they want.  See the following link ... PCGS Set Registry - Rooster Roster Coin Album

Congrats to the Great QA !!   A fantastic achievement !!    

How did you get into collecting Roosters (you can answer this in Hogheads's new thread if you prefer) ?

Edited November 27, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/11/2022 at 12:45 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Congrats to the Great QQ !!   A fantastic achievement !!    

How did you get into collecting Roosters (you can answer this in Hogheads's new thread if you prefer) ?

🐓: What do you say, Q?

Q.A.:  Is it going to rain tomorrow, Veteran's Day?

🐓:  Yes, why?

Q.A.:  Because Roosters don't like rain. I will have an unprecedented access and opportunity with which to confer with you and your clan on how and what inspired this assemblage and post it with everyone else's on Hog's thread.  I can't wait to start my story with "I was sitting there minding my own business when..."        

[EagleRJO]

If spot prices drop a little more as our economy continues to tank (LGB), I might add the following two coins to my collection. Mostly because I really like the way they look, and not so much as an "investment". Particularly the gold half eagle with the incuse design, which I have been eyeing for a while but haven't purchased yet.

However they are gold with the value somewhat tied to the spot price of that lovely metal and which if purchased at the right time could be considered a precious metals "quasi-investment". Okay, I made that last term up, but those coins are really shiny. 😜 

And I have a good feeling about the prospects of where things are headed with this planned purchase because my fortune from a Chinese order the other night was ... " good luck is the result of good planning". 😀

Edited November 11, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

Gold has gotten a nice bounce in the last 2 days as crypto imploded and the CPI allegedly cooled.

Slowing inflation = Higher Gold Prices !!     

[EagleRJO]

I don't bother looking at daily or even weekly spot prices just by themselves. I look at trends for absolute values over time and try to identify low pivot points (not just price drops or spikes), based on how those values compare with historical prices and research of market indicators.

That has served me very well in the past, and what I continue doing going forward. Otherwise it's just throwing darts at a spot price board hoping to get lucky, which more often than not people get burned doing.

Edited November 11, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/11/2022 at 1:21 PM, EagleRJO said:

I don't bother looking at daily or even weekly spot prices just by themselves. I look at trends for absolute values over time and try to identify low pivot points (not just price drops or spikes), based on how those values compare with historical prices and research of market indicators.  That has served me very well in the past, and what I continue doing going forward. Otherwise it's just throwing darts at a spot price board hoping to get lucky, which more often than not people get burned doing.

From a longer-term perspective after the 2009-11 rise in gold, you could make a case for the entire post-European Debt Crisis as being a consolidation period.

Gold has basically been in a $1,600 - $2,000 trading range for YEARS.  When we break out to the upside, $2,500 could come quickly.

[VKurtB]

On 11/11/2022 at 12:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

From a longer-term perspective after the 2009-11 rise in gold, you could make a case for the entire post-European Debt Crisis as being a consolidation period.

Gold has basically been in a $1,600 - $2,000 trading range for YEARS.  When we break out to the upside, $2,500 could come quickly.

I hear you and I understand you, but neither the ‘08-‘09 shock, nor the 2020 post-COVID shock and its inflationary response has caused gold to go up sustainably. It makes it really difficult for me to be bullish on metals. 

[EagleRJO]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:00 PM, VKurtB said:

It makes it really difficult for me to be bullish on metals.

Agreed at this point in time. Keep your eyes open for the possibility of a further drop and then a pivot point (well defined?) as both the economy and disposable income continue to drop, and individual credit debt rises. Supply side is fairly steady, so it's really the demand side I am watching.

Edited November 11, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:00 PM, VKurtB said:

I hear you and I understand you, but neither the ‘08-‘09 shock, nor the 2020 post-COVID shock and its inflationary response has caused gold to go up sustainably. It makes it really difficult for me to be bullish on metals. 

I'm not bullish on metals per se, though many people I respect think that the underinvestment of 2010-20 in commodities, metals, and oil will allow for a secular bull market in the 2020's.  I do think gold is undervalued -- whatever that means -- to the still artificially high shenanigans in BitCoin and crypto.

While most risk-assets did well the last few days, gold did, too. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/11/2022 at 5:16 PM, EagleRJO said:

Supply side is fairly steady, so it's really the demand side I am watching.

There were so many sharedholder-destructive, value-destroying CAPX projects and M&A pursued by the publicly-traded gold mining companies from 2000-2018 that supply should be restrained from the mining groups.  We'll have to see about central banks, though I think they might be net buyers now that crypto has imploded.

[Henri Charriere]

One thing for sure, this isn't a time for selling.  It's too late for that.  

[James Zyskowski]

On 11/11/2022 at 9:09 AM, EagleRJO said:

If spot prices drop a little more as our economy continues to tank (LGB), I might add the following two coins to my collection. Mostly because I really like the way they look, and not so much as an "investment". Particularly the gold half eagle with the incuse design, which I have been eyeing for a while but haven't purchased yet.

However they are gold with the value somewhat tied to the spot price of that lovely metal and which if purchased at the right time could be considered a precious metals "quasi-investment". Okay, I made that last term up, but those coins are really shiny. 😜 

And I have a good feeling about the prospects of where things are headed with this planned purchase because my fortune from a Chinese order the other night was ... " good luck is the result of good planning". 😀

   Shiny as in possibly cleaned?  Because they are shiny 😁

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:19 AM, James Zyskowski said:

   Shiny as in possibly cleaned?  Because they are shiny 😁

Shiny as in gold shiny, not shiny as in cleaned shiny. 

[EagleRJO]

Talking about possible cleaning for those coins maybe I could get some feedback on the condition and grade of them. Attached are the coins I'm considering again. They don't look cleaned and appear legit. For the half eagle it looks XF to AU, likely AU as there is only the slightest indication of wear. For the Rooster it looks BU, or MS60 to MS62, but not Choice BU which would be MS63 to MS64, but I wasn't sure about that last part. Maybe MS62. Thoughts?

Edited November 12, 2022 by EagleRJO

[J P M]

Gold like Copper is way hard to tell anything from pictures Jo

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:42 PM, J P M said:

Gold like Copper is way hard to tell anything from pictures Jo

Troo dat!

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:49 AM, EagleRJO said:

....For the Rooster it looks BU, or MS60 to MS62, but not Choice BU which would be MS63 to MS64, but I wasn't sure about that last part. Maybe MS62. Thoughts?

 

Q.A.:  What say you, Ricky?

🐓:   The Great z (yes, I can refer to him as such again because Oldhoop flew the coop) opined these coin are bullion, and as such, are notoriously difficult to grade, not so much from "wear" but being jostled... it is my understanding you made the gentleman an offer (via mental telepathy) he may well consider in lieu of this Guess the Grade charade.        

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/10/2022 at 10:52 PM, EagleRJO said:

For those who don't know about the Registry Set that @Quintus Arriusput together with the complete 1899 to 1914 "French 20 Franks Gold Roosters" 

Just want to re-plug your great post, Eagle....though I think you meant FRANCS and not FRANKS.  Though I like a good Sabret or Angus Beef dog as much as the next guy. 

Seriously, congrats to our friend QA !! 

QA....how many of the 20 Franc Roosters are believe to exist today....do you know approximately how many survive ?  I know for U.S. gold coins it might be tough to get total production/estimated survivors for the Quarter and Half Eagles; it's much easier for the Eagles and Double Eagles (Saints).  Maybe the same guestimate problem exists overseas for the smaller denominations that were more often used in commerce than bank settlements.

In case anybody is wondering....about 3.7 MM Saints are known to have survived (could be much more) out of about 70.3 MM produced.

Edited November 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/26/2022 at 2:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

....QA....how many of the 20 Franc Roosters are believe to exist today....do you know approximately how many survive ? ....

The official mintage runs of both the Originals [1899-1906]  and Restrikes [1907-1914] are common knowledge among collectors.  They total roughly 117,500,000 pieces.

It is not known how many survived meltings and export, and prices only begin to tell part of the story.

Of interest are the 9443 proofs dated 1900, the scarcest date which were minted along with regular circulation strikes in 1900, the scarcest date in the series of which only 615,000 were made (though I have neither seen nor heard of a Proof offered for sale in the past four years.) Inexplicably, the latest edition of the French Red Book [Monnaies Francaises, 2021] fails to acknowledge their existence entirely.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Clarification

[EagleRJO]

On 11/12/2022 at 11:09 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

... Guess the Grade charade.

I know it hard to tell much with gold coins from just pics so I am okay with some "guess the grade" opinions with appropriate qualifiers, which are part speculation anyway with just pics and not having the coin in-hand, or possibly just commenting on the range I was thinking they were.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/27/2022 at 12:48 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Of interest are the 9443 proofs dated 1900, the scarcest date which were minted along with regular circulation strikes in 1900, the scarcest date in the series of which only 615,000 were made (though I have neither seen nor heard of a Proof offered for sale in the past four years.) Inexplicably, the latest edition of the French Red Book [Monnaies Francaises, 2021] fails to acknowledge their existence entirely.

Are you saying that there are very few survivors from the 9,443 Proofs today ?  Or that there are many survivors, but they are in super-duper strong hands not willing to sell ?

At least in this country, proof strikings 100+ years ago were made exclusively for collectors and unless sold for a nominal premium to face value would have been preserved.  Maybe that wasn't the case overseas...maybe small-denomination proofs were regularly used in commerce ? 

I would think that the Proofs would be preserved and business strikes used for commerce but maybe not.

[EagleRJO]

Here is another gold half eagle I am considering which appears to be in the low MS range, but about $100 more than the one posted previously.  I don't get hung up on just having MS coins, and actually prefer many in an XF or AU grade range if very clean for that grade.  I think it would be a nice "investment". 

[GoldFinger1969]

I've come across some interesting stuff on Eagles and Half/Quarter Eagles while doing more reading on Saints.  Not sure I have posted it here.

If we don't have a dedicated thread on the sub-$20 Eagles, we should. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/27/2022 at 1:37 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Are you saying that there are very few survivors from the 9,443 Proofs today ?  Or that there are many survivors, but they are in super-duper strong hands not willing to sell ?

At least in this country, proof strikings 100+ years ago were made exclusively for collectors and unless sold for a nominal premium to face value would have been preserved.  Maybe that wasn't the case overseas...maybe small-denomination proofs were regularly used in commerce ? 

I would think that the Proofs would be preserved and business strikes used for commerce but maybe not.

It's funny how Set Registry requirements limit one's interests, particularly in this series.  There isn't a single hole devoted to patterns, proofs, piedforts, varieties, errors, curiosities or oddities of any kind. Consequently, I don't pursue them. The 9,443 proofs?  They went poof!  I would not even know who to see to inquire about them.

[Sandon]

@EagleRJO--There are so many deceptive counterfeits of the Pratt Indian Head quarter and half eagles nowadays, and they now cost so much that I would no longer risk buying an uncertified one.