Making an investment? 2 2

[Hoghead515]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:27 PM, EagleRJO said:

Nice job @Quintus Arrius if you completed Regestry Sets for Roosters both here and across the street. 

I don't collect them, but I understand some are really hard to find at a reasonable price.

Would you mind sharing links to both so I can take a peek as it sounds like an awsome accomplishment, and I do find them interesting. 😉

Hes got some really nice ones competing in the registry. I usually take a look at em every once in a while. I would love to add a couple to my collection one of these days. They are a very attractive coin in my opinion. 

[EagleRJO]

Yea, he has got some nice Roosters (the coins, not the ones that wake you up at the crack of dawn). 

[EagleRJO]

On 11/6/2022 at 8:02 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

... both Registry Sets, here and "over there" are complete. The resumption of upgrading is Ricky's call to make.

@Quintus ArriusI was going to let this slide, but I couldnt because inquiring minds want to know!

So, Rickey is an imaginary alter-ego Rooster for a reincarnated 73 BC Roman praetor who mysteriously disappeared after a successful war campaign due to imaginary interactions with an alter-ego Chicken leading to taking a path home being a modern day equivalent of a South Bronx stroll at night without a bullet proof vest.

And yet it is proffered that a similar outcome is not destined to occur to the owner of a top rated coin collection if an imaginary Rooster selectes upgrades to much sought after alter-ego coin self-portraits that are as rare as Rooster teeth (pun intended) in very high grades, where historical competition over such pieces have resulted in villages burning to the ground and wars starting? And this really is somehow expected to go well?

Edited November 9, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Henri Charriere]

@EagleRJO:

This is an inopportune time to pose your query.  Compulsive thread-watchers know what I am talking about. Ricky is an alter-ego at best. I do not talk to him; I think to myself.  I think, therefore I am.      

The interesting thing about this thread is it appears to have been revived, inadvertently. 

The OP, posted his query 2-1/2 years ago on April 28, 2020. He received a reply the same day..

Over 1-1/2 years passed without comment.

On Oct. 18th, only 3 weeks ago, two newly-minted members stumbled upon the dormant thread, left comments triggering a response on NGC's sensors. Six regular members dropped-in that same day cementing the thread's status as Open for Discussion.

There is one long- long-time member who does something we should all do.  He checks the initial post to find out who the author is, what he wants to know, and answers to the best of his ability. 

Back on Track! 

 

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Routine die-polishing.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/8/2022 at 5:16 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Ricky is an alter-ego at best. I do not talk to him; I think to myself.

You are correct that post had an inadvertant faux pas where a minor edit was not felt necessary, as it is intrinsically implied and intuitively obvious to the most casual of observers that one does not actually "converse" with alter-egos, and therefore this would be a figurative and not literal "conversing", Other than that (including reports that pretor Arrius was nvts, as are most great military leaders), it was wholeheartedly factual ... okay, well maybe not the village burning stuff. 😜 

Even though that was about gold coins with a possible derailment, back to "investments" ... how about those infomercials selling gold portfolios that show gold shooting up to a unicorn $2,050/oz where it was earlier this year (right before is subsequently completely tanked), and then immediately cutting away to the box of shiny 1-kilo gold bars (~$55k ea) that are lit up like a Christmas morning smile. Yea, that is what you are going to get when you call.

Edited November 9, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/8/2022 at 6:55 PM, EagleRJO said:

Even though that was about gold coins with a possible derailment, back to "investments" ... how about those infomercials selling gold portfolios that show gold shooting up to a unicorn $2,050/oz where it was earlier this year (right before is subsequently completely tanked), and then cutting away to the box of shiny 1-kilo bars (~$55k ea) that are lit up like a Christmas morning smile. Yea, that is what you are going to get when you call.

My understanding from clients/friends/family -- I wasn't into gold/coins at the time -- was that decades ago firms like Blanchard used to sell you the bullion coins and then try and get you to move into the numismatics.  My uncle for one bought a few dozen Saints (after buying bullion coins), though I've never seen them (I think I told him to catalog them for me a few months ago ).

In retrospect, it turned out OK for him as most of the time he bought gold was probably $400-500.  While more gains were to be made by buying bullion, even paying a rich premium for numismatics turned out OK (to what extent I don't know).

Edited November 9, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

There is one promise I never had difficulty keeping. Strolling thru Grand Central back in the 1970's, observing scores of people fixated on moving tapes with letters and numbers, I mused to myself, "I'll never be like them."

I have never paid much attention to price. What goes up must come down, and vice versa. It seems to me, right now may be a good time to buy if the availability is there.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:34 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

There is one promise I never had difficulty keeping. Strolling thru Grand Central back in the 1970's, observing scores of people fixated on moving tapes with letters and numbers, I mused to myself, "I'll never be like them."

I have never paid much attention to price. What goes up must come down, and vice versa. It seems to me, right now may be a good time to buy if the availability is there.

Precious metals/commodities tend to have big cyclical moves....stocks move UP over time, in the aggregate....bonds are capped by Laws Of Mathematics (duration, credit losses).

So it's more than just "what goes up must come down."  Depends on how much of each !! 

[EagleRJO]

Idk, I have been doing bullion for quite a while, and doing pretty good with the general up trend and pegging the up/down. I have heard some talk about there being a general 1,600 line, but I have absolutely no clue anymore.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

decades ago firms like Blanchard ...

Yea, decades ago they had a decent reputation. Complaints have skyrocketed, along with their mark-ups and strong-arm up-sells to grandma. That last part alone would lose my respect, but you are better off anyway going with a very large reputable bullion/coin dealer like Apmex, JD Bullion, etc.

And there are a lot of companies out there which are total rip offs like a bunch selling counterfeit gold bars not even close to the purity claimed and others professing to sell things below spot with an old date but where you can still place an "order" thinking it's a score, but you get a box of rocks. Buyer beware.

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/8/2022 at 10:08 PM, EagleRJO said:

And there are a lot of companies out there which are total rip offs.... Buyer beware.

As a public service, I am going to address the matter of "Sealed Gold Vault Bricks" loaded with "State Gold Bank Rolls" as advertised recently in full-page ads by the NATIONAL MINT AND TREASURY, LLC (the latter suffix of which, in this case refers to Low Life Criminals, for the smooth approach they take in hood-winking people).

[EagleRJO]

Yea, you mean another eledery rip off company that is the "only one known" to sell rare State Restricted Bank Rolls ... because they paid $20 for rights to print "state restricted bank" on cheap  paper rolls ... with even cheaper coins inside. Line um up.

Okay, civic duty hour is over, back to "investing". 😉

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Precious metals/commodities tend to have big cyclical moves....stocks move UP over time, in the aggregate....bonds are capped by Laws Of Mathematics (duration, credit losses).

So it's more than just "what goes up must come down."  Depends on how much of each !! 

In essence this is true.  folks can afford to take chances.  I suspect the volatility of crypto appeals to their senses.  Older people, and living fossils like me, tend to stick to more conservative investments. [One of the more interesting trends I have stumbled across is the revelation that the newer, younger generations have little interest in heirloom furniture.  I suspect that is because they are far more mobile than their parents.]

Getting back to the OP's question:  my best advice is choose fewer pieces with greater value. A 1933 double eagle speaks for itself and needs no introduction. 

[EagleRJO]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Precious metals/commodities tend to have big cyclical moves....stocks move UP over time, in the aggregate....bonds are capped by Laws Of Mathematics (duration, credit losses).

Not really true. Historically they all have up and down swings, but all go up over time, at least since the bi-metallic money standard ended. Bond markets (not just individual bonds or classes) have the least amount of swings and lowest return over time. Stock markets actually have the greatest amount of swings, but also the greatest return over time.

I wont touch crypto or real estate, so for a little while now precious metals have been a nice happy median for me and my "gambling money" as I refer to it. 😜 

I have also done some dabbling in ETF's, and I dont even track or think of coins like that, except maybe bullion coins. But recently everything except bonds has been crazy, so I have just been sitting on the sidelines collecting coins. 🙃 

Edited November 9, 2022 by EagleRJO

[tj96]

.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:43 AM, EagleRJO said:

Not really true. Historically they all have up and down swings, but all go up over time, at least since the bi-metallic money standard ended. Bond markets (not just individual bonds or classes) have the least amount of swings and lowest return over time. Stock markets actually have the greatest amount of swings, but also the greatest return over time.

No....you have to use rolling time periods and when you do stocks are the best-performing asset class with medium volatility and drawdowns.  Bonds are 2nd and gold/commodities bring up the rear along with cash/money markets.

Bonds are having their worst year in a century this year.

Edited November 9, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[EagleRJO]

On 11/9/2022 at 10:35 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

you have to use rolling time periods

No, that may just be your individual preferred valuation metric. Turn on the news and look at a Dow chart and it's in absolute values. Hold a bar of gold in your hand and look at the chart on the news, and nothing is rolling. 😜 

I get what your saying as a valuation comparison metric, but it's just not how people think or the concensus as you see absolute comparison charts like those posted all over the place.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/9/2022 at 12:58 PM, EagleRJO said:

No, that may just be your individual preferred valuation metric. Turn on the news and look at a Dow chart and it's in absolute values. Hold a bar of gold in your hand and look at the chart on the news, and nothing is rolling. 😜 

I get what your saying as a valuation comparison metric, but it's just not how people think or the concensus as you see absolute comparison charts like those posted all over the place.

No, rolling periods eliminates TIME BIAS because otherwise the starting and ending periods for a measurement can be biased.  That's the problem with all these clowns who use 1973 as a starting point for gold.

For those who don't know what I am talking about....for a 20 year time-horizon.....1973-1993 returns.....1974-1994 returns.....1975-1995 returns.....etc.  This is a fair and impartial way of comparing returns over time.

[EagleRJO]

I'm not talking about anything rolling ... I give up. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:07 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That's the problem with all these clowns who use 1973 as a starting point for gold.

As one of those clowns 🤡 of which you so eloquently speak, I appreciate your regimented analysis and elaboration.  Now I can add "Gold Expert" to my resume.    

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:43 AM, EagleRJO said:

 

How is this fair?  I see neither "die cracks" nor their close cousins, "proof die cracks," listed here. Suppose, independent of coins altogether, they outperformed all the stuff you've got charted here?   Just joshin' you here! 

[USAuPzlBxBob]

Just looked into how my Puzzle Box Gold type set has been faring of late, and it gained $400 in the last month.

I'll take it!

[EagleRJO]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:07 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That's the problem with all these clowns who use 1973 as a starting point for gold.

On 11/9/2022 at 6:43 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

As one of those clowns 🤡 of which you so eloquently speak, I appreciate your regimented analysis and elaboration.  Now I can add "Gold Expert" to my resume.    

Buck up QA, I think it was just meant as a pot shot at me, and a pretty childish one at that, since I humorously disagreed with him. Including that markets all go up, with up and down swings ... "at least since the bi-metallic money standard ended" [in 1973].

I believe he forgot that he himself argued something similar in a different thread that relative to evaluating gold prices ... "the price was artificially suppressed for decades prior to 1973. The history of the price is false, since government dictated it" ... So we are all in the "clown" category now, and I will leave it at that as stated.  

Concerning any financial "die cracks" that may be present, those are only found in my 401k and individual market investment accounts where the value has seeped through those cracks, causing the cracks to seriously widen and the values to drain through them like opening up the flood gates at the Hoover Dam. 

Luckily, I had been dumping as much as I could from the individuals and tax returns into I-Series at ~10% before everything fell apart to soften the blow, as well as buying a bunch of coins which have pretty much held. And all my bullion investments are still up, including moving some individuals into that a while ago to diversify a bit, or for more recent ones just about holding steady even with the drastic price drops we just had. And you are right that the value of our coins have not suffered the same fate as the stock market.  

Edited November 10, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Henri Charriere]

🐓 :  You need a new nickname, Q!  How's "Bucky," short for "Buck up," sound?  

Q.A.:  Just fine. [Sheesh!]  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/9/2022 at 7:57 PM, EagleRJO said:

Buck up QA, I think it was just meant as a pot shot at me, and a pretty childish one at that, since I humorously disagreed with him. Including that markets all go up, with up and down swings ... "at least since the bi-metallic money standard ended" [in 1973].

I believe he forgot that he himself argued something similar in a different thread that relative to evaluating gold prices ... "the price was artificially suppressed for decades prior to 1973. The history of the price is false, since government dictated it" ... So we are all in the "clown" category now, and I will leave it at that as stated.  

No, wasn't referring to my friends here ....talking about the late-night infomercials or dishonest "gold bugs" talking about gold's returns from 1973 to 1980 as "inflation protection" or the annual returns from 1973 to the present or 1992 or 2009 to the present.  The numbers are cherry-picked. 

The 1970's were a once-in-a-lifetime experience.  Gold was unfixed after decades of being price controlled....inflation soared...oil shocks....political upheavel....currencies under Bretton Woods fell apart.  There are so many ways to hedge inflation today that didn't exist 40+ years ago.

As an example....back in 1980, both gold and the foreign exchange market traded about $1 billion a day.  Today gold trades about $50 billion daily.....and currency trades are at about $6 TRILLION a day.

On 11/9/2022 at 7:57 PM, EagleRJO said:

Luckily, I had been dumping as much as I could from the individuals and tax returns into I-Series at ~10% before everything fell apart to soften the blow, as well as buying a bunch of coins which have pretty much held. And all my bullion investments are still up, including moving some individuals into that a while ago to diversify a bit, or for more recent ones just about holding steady even with the drastic price drops we just had. And you are right that the value of our coins have not suffered the same fate as the stock market.  

Good actions ! 

Edited November 10, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/9/2022 at 6:43 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

As one of those clowns 🤡 of which you so eloquently speak, I appreciate your regimented analysis and elaboration.  Now I can add "Gold Expert" to my resume.    

No, not talking about you, QA, or my friends here.  The scamsters cherry-picking starting and ending points.

That's why ROLLING time periods eliminates time bias. 

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 11/10/2022 at 9:37 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

No, not talking about you, QA, or my friends here.  The scamsters cherry-picking starting and ending points.

That's why ROLLING time periods eliminates time bias. 

 

I remember one firm, I think it was Blanchard, but I won’t swear to it, that had an over the counter retail store in the Rockefeller Plaza shops. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/10/2022 at 12:52 PM, VKurtB said:

I remember one firm, I think it was Blanchard, but I won’t swear to it, that had an over the counter retail store in the Rockefeller Plaza shops. 

I remember there was a gold seller there in the 2000's, certainly 1999/2000 last time I went there regularly.

I thought it had 3 names in the title....wondering it it was Manfred, Tordella, and Brookes ?

[EagleRJO]

On 11/10/2022 at 12:52 PM, VKurtB said:

I remember one firm, I think it was Blanchard, but I won’t swear to it, that had an over the counter retail store in the Rockefeller Plaza shops. 

Yea, they are not there anymore. Just infomercials now. It was actually a Blanchard informercial I was talking about when I posted these comments ...

On 11/8/2022 at 6:55 PM, EagleRJO said:

 ... how about those infomercials selling gold portfolios that show gold shooting up to a unicorn $2,050/oz where it was earlier this year (right before is subsequently completely tanked), and then immediately cutting away to the box of shiny 1-kilo gold bars (~$55k ea) that are lit up like a Christmas morning smile. Yea, that is what you are going to get when you call.

On 11/8/2022 at 10:08 PM, EagleRJO said:

Yea, decades ago they had a decent reputation. Complaints have skyrocketed, along with their mark-ups and strong-arm up-sells to grandma. That last part alone would lose my respect, but you are better off anyway going with a very large reputable bullion/coin dealer like Apmex, JD Bullion, etc.

@VKurtBmore scammers, which you know "burns my butt". 

Edited November 10, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/9/2022 at 12:58 PM, EagleRJO said:

I get what your saying as a valuation comparison metric, but it's just not how people think or the concensus as you see absolute comparison charts like those posted all over the place.

I am talking about absolute comparisions....the key is what time period do you use ?

Rolling time periods sees how you do by advancing the starting and ending periods 1 year each.  This eliminates selective starting and ending points.

The charts you cite are meant to be a 1-time snapshot.  You can't show the chart for dozens of time periods.  But professionals generally use rolling time periods to discuss risk-adjusted returns over time.

Edited November 10, 2022 by GoldFinger1969