When will the Silver Washington Quarter's time come?

[MarkVIIIMarc]

The Ike thread got me thinking about this. The "old" silver Washington Quarters in common circulated condition only seem to have two 1932 mints that are worth much more than their melt value. Not exactly sign of high desireability for a coins in their 70's and 80's.

 

Just to play devil's advicate, Is that coin to collectors what Ikes are?

 

How old are Ikes? 40? Non immaculate 1964 Washington Quarters seem to only have value for their silver.

 

Just stirring the pot while watching the kid. I'll be back after beating another level of Lego Star Wars.

[BillJones]

Their time came and passed when the State Quarter program was launched.

 

When I was a kid in the 1960s I started and completed sets of all the modern coins at the time except the Washington quarter. I found the obverse to be dull and bland and the reverse crowded and unattractive. I just could not get into them. After I read about how Mrs. Laura Frazer was cheated out of having her design used on the coin, I had even less interest in the Washington quarter.

[casman]

Make no mistake, the Washington quarter series has been RED HOT for the past few years.

[physics-fan3.14]

Washington quarters are far more popular than a lot of other modern series. Roosevelt dimes are getting more popular. Ikes can sit in bags for another 50 years, for all I care.

[cpm9ball]

Their time came and passed when the State Quarter program was launched.

 

When I was a kid in the 1960s I started and completed sets of all the modern coins at the time except the Washington quarter. I found the obverse to be dull and bland and the reverse crowded and unattractive. I just could not get into them. After I read about how Mrs. Laura Frazer was cheated out of having her design used on the coin, I had even less interest in the Washington quarter.

 

Laura Gardin Fraser and James Earle Fraser are two of my favorite designers.

 

Chris

[coinman_23885]

Their time came and passed when the State Quarter program was launched.

 

When I was a kid in the 1960s I started and completed sets of all the modern coins at the time except the Washington quarter. I found the obverse to be dull and bland and the reverse crowded and unattractive. I just could not get into them. After I read about how Mrs. Laura Frazer was cheated out of having her design used on the coin, I had even less interest in the Washington quarter.

 

I agree and the prices have tanked substantially, especially on some of those in MS67 and MS68. Toned coins seem to do well though.

[Walkerfan]

I find them to be more attractive and desirable than Ikes or even Roosies. I once owned a 1932-S in MS 64 but I sold it, as it was in a third world slab. It looked solid for the grade to me, though. I wouldn't mind owning a 1932-D, 1932-S or 1936-D in NGC or PCGS high grade. The prices and interest have seemed to fizzle, since the State quarter program craze has died down. Now would likely be a good time to buy some.

[david3142]

I had a lot of trouble finding a really nicely toned quarter. For some reason, Washingtons just don't seem to tone as nicely as Roosevelts. I passed up a gorgeous (and very reasonably priced) 67* about 8 years ago and wasn't able to stop kicking myself until I found the type coin in my collection today. It's only a 66*, but it has the nicest color I have ever seen on a quarter.

 

I think silver Washingtons are a neat series for the beginner because beautiful bright white raw or slabbed coins are readily available in MS grades for probably $10-$50 per coin other than the 32-D and 32-S. Superb gem (67 and 68) Washingtons provide a major challenge for more advanced collectors, and as I mentioned above, finding nicely toned coins of all dates is incredibly difficult.

[SkyMan]

I think that it's a twofold answer. As a collecting series, e.g. just having fun collecting the coins, interest in it will wax and wane. The coins are relatively decent sized, and can look great either toned or white. I'm having a BLAST filling in slots in my Dansco albums. Originally I was only planning on doing the 1940 - 1964 run, as most of the money in the set is the 1932 - 1939 run. Over time I've started to pick up some of the earlier dates, but I'm not sure I'll ever go for the pricier 1932 - 1939 date/mm's.

 

As far as an investment series, except potentially for the very top of the line coins, Killer MS68's for the absolute top Registry guys, I don't think this series time will ever come. There are just too many of them.

[cladking]

The silver quarters were very popular and increasing in price twelve or fourteen years ago. They'll be back much much stronger in about ten years, maybe less. Keep in mind there there may not be many rarities in the series but with a wider demand some of these coins could show explosive growth. If I were younger I'd be salting away any VF to AU '40-D I could get and any true Unc I could get cheap. Some of the '30's dates are good deals in XF/ AU. Some of the poorly made issues are good deals in Gem.

[e1cnr]

The premium for uncirculated over circulated for many issues is minor.

 

Their time comes around every time the price of silver makes a run and gets in the news. A good chunk surely get melted every time this occurs.

[erwindoc]

High grade coins and spectacular toners are just as hot as ever. I also agree with Clad King. The series will turn around again when all the kids that collected the SHQs have disposable income and get back into coins. In the meantime, Ill have fun picking up coins for my set!!

[World Colonial]

I believe the same general comments I made on the Ike dollar apply to this series. It is already among the most popular when measured by the number of collectors. At the same time, it is far too common outside of "grade rarities" and other specialization where anyone should expect it to be worth a lot more across the board.

 

This is predominantly a "collector" coin and except in the higher grades (grade "rarities" and some other date/MM combinations in MS-65 or better) plus the 1932-D and 1932-S, isn't to my knowledge bought by "high budget" buyers. If this series becomes a lot more valuable, won't the others which are bought by most collectors increase along with it? And if they do, then I have the same question I had before. What are most collectors supposed to buy instead that they actually want?

 

If it doesn't, what is so different with this series that it is going to appreciate substantially while the others do not? The only reason I can see is because of a substantial increase in the silver spot price where all of the common silver classics will go up at the same time.

[skeeter]

i found this discussion interesting.since i sold about a 1000 circulated 1960-1964 quarters several years ago but kept circulated earlier dates for no particular reason. Also may keep several rolls of uncirculated 1944 and 1956 for awhile longer. Maybe worth more in a few years.

Skeeter

[cladking]

I believe the same general comments I made on the Ike dollar apply to this series. It is already among the most popular when measured by the number of collectors. At the same time, it is far too common outside of "grade rarities" and other specialization where anyone should expect it to be worth a lot more across the board.

 

At one time there were some 8,000,000 people collecting wheat cents. Most were children and some weren't extremely active but they searched change and traded with others. Based on this people were salting away things like bags of 1958 nickels betting they'd go through the roof. It had a mintage of 18 million and many were saved but there was enough demand to give the bags a huge premium. Of course we know what happened. The mint took silver out of the coinage and collecting new coins dropped off the charts.

 

But the number of collectors in 1965 is tiny compared to the number of states quarters collectors over the last 16 years now. How many of these collectors will filter back into the hobby is anyone's guess but there will be many coming back. It was the return of baby boomers in the market that has caused the explosive growth in the hobby since 1999.

 

Demographic changes simply change everything. It will be a new set of collectors coming in. It seems a certainty that out the millions coming back that there will be more than a few thousand interested in the old quarters that were circulating in 1965. The '40-D had a mintage under 3 million doesn't have much premium to melt value under F condition. Most of this date was worn to G or lower meaning these coins have been and are continuing to be melted.

 

Why wouldn't a silver buyer or collector simply choose to save his silver in the form of "worthless" '40-D's? If most are heavily worn then how many nice choice XF's will be available? Yes, this date isn't very tough in Unc but there obviously can't be a large number compared to the potential demand.

 

I think a lot of these coins are going to surprise people. I doubt it can become an expensive coin but I can see the spread tightening a lot and all them moving upward. Even the lowly VG's will have solid demand if there are large numbers of new collectors for them.

 

Some of the old Jefferson Nickels might surprise people too. These were set aside in far larger numbers but attrition has whittled them down somewhat and they aren't all as common as the perception. Look at what the '42-D has done over the decades. Some of the "common dates" from the late '40's might not stand up to a large new demand. Many, if not most, of the post-64 nickels are much scarcer than the older coins and quality can be more of an issue.

[World Colonial]

I am aware of your demographic views and as I told you before, I don't agree with them.

 

The data you provided in this post, I am also aware of it generically and I see your point but it is irrelevant financially. Those 8MM collectors of wheat cents, maybe a few thousand collect this series today at a level that I would consider "material" in the sense that any future appreciation will make any difference. And yes, this is the context of the OP because the "time has already come" for this series for the more expensive coins and it is already very popular measured by the number of collectors.

 

The primary point I was trying to make with my last post is that just as someone could ask this question for the Ike dollar (per the other thread), moderns (US and world) as we discussed in our prior conversation and Washington silver quarters right here, it can be asked of practically every widely collected US series and others (such as 3CN) which are not that popular.

 

Will "the time come" for all these series simultaneously and if so, what will most collectors be able to buy? If not, why would Washington quarters (or Ikes) do so but not other popular series? Are they really that underpriced now? I don't think so.

 

I am not familiar with the recent price performance of this series or how it compares to others, though I do occassionally view the Heritage archives. My suspicion is that prices have declined for two reasons. First, silver has lost 65% since the May, 2011 peak. And second, most people are worse off measured in real median income and no better off nominally in net worth since the state quarter program started in 1999. Add to this the labor participation rate is the lowest since the 1970's (I believe 1978) and it should be apparent that "average" collectors don't have much money to buy coins, whether this series or another one.

 

I don't disagree that future collectors will want these coins. What I am telling you is that if one of these coins increases from $10 to $20 which it could mostly or entirely due to silver spot, it is irrelevant financially. If somewhat better specimens increase from $50 to $100 or $100 to $200, still financially irrelevant and no I don't have this opinion because I am not "rich". At the same time, $100 to $200 (In real money) will price many collectors out because of the economic profiles of these buyers.

 

I also agree with your implied opinion and what someone else stated here that future attrition from melting will eventually have an impact, but I don't see that it will make much difference (outside of changes in silver spot) to the series generically where it will matter to anyone reading this thread. Most issues are likely far too common except in the highest grades and despite its popularity, I don't believe there are anywhere near enough collectors who will want these coins badly enough to pay much higher prices for them just I don't for the Ike dollar.

 

As guess, I would estimate that there are tens or up to a few hundred thousand "serious" collectors of this series. Going by the census counts, maybe over somewhat 500 who have a significant" investment" by my standards. The rest aren't spending enough money in the aggregate to make much of a difference on the price level given the supply.

[e1cnr]

the statehood quarters program started many new collectors

 

some have gotten burned, discovered it and are out of collecting coins

(platinum or gold plated, rolls, ...)

 

some are spending money in their life - family, home, food and will come back into collecting when they get more 'disposable' cash

- where they go will probably depend on their preferences

--> modern, classic, world, bullion,

 

 

The thing about collecting silver Washington quarters, is they are generally NOT found in circulation. You can NOT fill spots in your book from change or roll searching. You pretty much have to purchase coins for your collection - so what do you buy? for many it will be the best you can afford, or at a level you are wanting for your 'set'.

[World Colonial]

All your comments are valid.

 

I agree that it is "popular" when measured by the number of collectors but concurrently don't believe that a large number really like it that much where they are going to pay "strong" money or substantially higher prices versus today. They are't going to do it because they actually prefer other series more or a lot more but mostly cannot afford them. This is the same opinion I expressed in the other thread for the Ike dollar. Those who can't afford anything better but still like it collect it as you describe but disproportinately not otherwise.

 

It seems to me that many collectors have an exaggerated opinion of the popularity of the relatively affiordable 20th century classic series. Along with the Morgan dollar and US moderns, these are the core of US collecting today and I expect them to remain so. At the same time, outside of the Morgan (and maybe Peace) dollar, financially the number of collectors buying them at "high" prices are not that many and in the aggregate, it is actually a low proportion of those who spend "big money" because most with larger budgets would actually prefer to buy something else.

[halfpint]

Mrs. Laura Frazer was cheated out of having her design used

 

...I for one, would love to see her design. Do you know of a photo and could you post it? I'd appreciate it very much and thanks! (thumbs u

[RWB]

The Sec of Treasury made the final decision on the 1932 quarter design. He was influenced in part because Fraser had won the medal competition (which paid a higher commission), and he wanted to select work from a different sculptor. Unfortunately, Flanagan's original reverse was a nest of eagles, which was not liked - too unusual - so he was told to change it to the adopted "inverted bat" rendition.

 

The "time" of the Washington quarter ended in about 1965.Prior to then, it was a favorite among collectors.

[halfpint]

 

...So I guess no one has a pic of the Frazer design,

[cladking]

As guess, I would estimate that there are tens or up to a few hundred thousand "serious" collectors of this series. Going by the census counts, maybe over somewhat 500 who have a significant" investment" by my standards. The rest aren't spending enough money in the aggregate to make much of a difference on the price level given the supply.

 

I guess I understand your logic but I'm never going to see your perspective. Maybe you can see mine.

 

The '50-D nickel and '40-D quarter had similar mintages. Many of the '40-D quarters have been lost or destroyed over the decades.

 

The '50-D nickel was once worth $200 in today's money.

This is 100,000% of face value.

 

The '40-D nickel is worth about $3 today.

This is 100% of melt value.

 

Today despite silver prices the '40-D is still worth less than the '50-D!!!

 

 

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

...So I guess no one has a pic of the Frazer design,

 

I believe this is what you're looking for. From Don Taxay's The U.S. Mint and Coinage (1966) pg. 364:

 

[Danye West]

I actually don't like the reverse. The obverse is better than the current design.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

I actually don't like the reverse. The obverse is better than the current design.

There's actually another reverse design model that I didn't post. But it's basically the same thing expect the stars are large and the tips of the wings don't cover the lettering. Here:

 

Same source...Taxay U.S. Mint and Coinage (1966) pg. 364

[halfpint]

...So I guess no one has a pic of the Frazer design,

 

I believe this is what you're looking for. From Don Taxay's The U.S. Mint and Coinage (1966) pg. 364:

 

 

...Thank You! My my I think that design is superior to what we now have. Too bad Frazer's design wasn't picked...

[Coindude]

Here's my version of that coin. I think it's absolutely gorgeous.

 

[Walkerfan]

Here's my version of that coin. I think it's absolutely gorgeous.

 

 

Yes---I like it, too!

[World Colonial]

 

I guess I understand your logic but I'm never going to see your perspective. Maybe you can see mine.

 

The '50-D nickel and '40-D quarter had similar mintages. Many of the '40-D quarters have been lost or destroyed over the decades.

 

The '50-D nickel was once worth $200 in today's money.

This is 100,000% of face value.

 

The '40-D nickel is worth about $3 today.

This is 100% of melt value.

 

Today despite silver prices the '40-D is still worth less than the '50-D!!!

 

 

The reason I don't see your perspective is because your viewpoint does not incorporate how non-collectors generally view collecting or how collectors actually act.

 

As to your example, the 1950-D nickel is an aberration. It isn't remotely representative of most coins including this quarter. It's prior price was the result of a speculative bubble, not real collecting. You know this better than I since you were collecting when it occurred and I was not.

 

If you want to use this as an example, why not use any number of other coins that are also grossly relatively overpriced based upon both their actual numismatic merits and their scarcity? There isn't any real logic to their prices either, yet they still sell for exorbitant prices anyway.

 

Your claims for the 40-D quarter aren't an impossibility. It is possible your expectations may occur for this particular coin in isolation but certainly not for the series more broadly which was the primary point of my last post.

First, for the example you gave of a VG or F, this series is unattractive in such low grades. You have used this reason in your prior posts for clad coinage in much higher grades. So why would anyone want to pay a "high" price for the 40-D, especially considering general trends for low grade common coins? What I am telling you, it is equally true of coins I collect which are much scarcer and desirable than this quarter. No one wants them at "strong" prices today and there isn't any reason to believe they will for the foreseeable future either.

Second, If you look at the census, this coin is not remotely scarce in high grades either, even assuming there aren't many more to be graded which certainly is not my opinion. The combined census records about 3300 with most in MS. Over 1000 are in MS-65, about 600 in MS-66 and almost 90 in MS-67.

 

Yes, I know there are some or many duplicates but the actual number is probably some low multiple at minimum, even for MS-65 and MS-66.

 

Heritage records recent sales of an MS-66 around $300 (somewhat more for PCGS and somewhat less for NGC). MS-65 somewhat over $200 and the only MS-63 I saw at $123. For these grades, the spread seems rather low and the price level isn't particularly low either given both the current census counts and how many more probably exist..

 

How many common coins other than the "key" dates we both know sell for "strong" money? The actual answer is "not many" and to the lopsided proportion of collectors, those that do are vastly more interesting and compelling than this quarter or other coins like it.

 

The only way I can see that this coin and the series generically will experience substantial appreciation is by assuming collecting in general and demand for this series specifically will take a "quantum leap".

 

I reject it on both counts. First, I don't believe economics supports it because there is a better reason to believe most people are going to be worse off for the foreseeable future. Second, there isn't any evidence that the public is going to find collecting so much more compelling than they do today even if the number of collectors increases somewhat. And third, I can't think of a single reason why future collectors will both choose this series and pay much higher prices in much larger numbers to remotely absorb the actual likely supply.