What are the odds?

[cpm9ball]

I just happened to be browsing Mr. Feld's website earlier today when I noticed that he had a 1916 McKinley $1 Gold in his inventory.

 

http://markfeldcoins.com/client/commemGoldMckinley1916pcgs66.jpg

 

It came as a bit of a surprise because just yesterday I was having a conversation with a YN whose father had just purchased one. In the course of our conversation, I decided to look up some info about it in my Commem book.

 

According to Kevin Flynn, there were 20,026 struck and it was estimated that 8,023 were melted which leaves an approximate net mintage of 11,997. These originally sold for $3, and reading further, I was greatly surprised to note that a Texas coin dealer by the name of B. Max Mehl had purchased about 10,000 of these.

 

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

I'd think it would be a pretty darn good possibility.

 

Chris

[SkyMan]

Sounds reasonable to me.

 

 

[gmarguli]

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

About 83.4%?

[DaveG]

And, of course, since Mark Feld was related to Max Mehl, it means he's keeping the coins in the family.

[coinman_23885]

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

About 83.4%?

 

But were some of Mehl's coins among those melted? If so, your calculation is wrong.

[cpm9ball]

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

About 83.4%?

 

But were some of Mehl's coins among those melted? If so, your calculation is wrong.

748

 

Those that were melted were the ones that didn't sell.

 

Chris

[$ilverHawk]

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

About 83.4%?

 

But were some of Mehl's coins among those melted? If so, your calculation is wrong.

748

 

Those that were melted were the ones that didn't sell.

 

Chris

 

I think that's fairly clear, you can't buy melted coins. Chris's estimate is probably quite accurate.

 

Carl

 

 

[e1cnr]

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

About 83.4%?

 

 

That would be close to the probability, the odds would depend on what format requested but most people would use the p/1-p which would give close to 5/1 assuming a random distribution of the entire population of that coin.

[Keigwin]

Is this a math question? Or about provenance?

 

It would seem a non-Max Mehl example would be scarcer.

Lance.

[robec1347]

Is this a math question? Or about provenance?

 

It would seem a non-Max Mehl example would be scarcer.

Lance.

 

So in this case, instead of proving provenance, you have to prove it doesn't have the Max Mehl provenance.

[Crohnos01]

So, my question is, "What do you think the odds are that the coin Mark is offering for sale was one of those originally purchased by Mr. Mehl?"

 

About 83.4%?

 

But were some of Mehl's coins among those melted? If so, your calculation is wrong.

748

 

Those that were melted were the ones that didn't sell.

 

Chris

 

I think that's fairly clear, you can't buy melted coins. Chris's estimate is probably quite accurate.

 

Carl

 

 

You got me thinking Carl... So I bet one of you trivia types with a fanatic attention to detail (hello? Roger?)can tell me; what happens to melted coins? Are they put into ingots and stored or are they immediately used to strike whatever gold coins the mint is making at the time they were melted?