Top 50 Most Popular Modern Coins- Let's Talk Moderns!

[coinman_23885]

I strongly disagree. If someone bought according to this book, they would be just trading one set of moderns for another. This book is almost exclusively bullion - someone who buys this is going to loose their shirt when bullion inevitably goes back down.

Circulating or bullion - most of the market in moderns is driven by advertising and gimmickry. Gimmickry on the part of the mint with the State Quarters, and then a hundred new designs a year. Gimmickry on the part of the TPG's with the Registry and 70's. And Gimmickry on the part of dealers who write "books" with "authority" on "popular" issues in order to drive sales. Like it or not, that is what the modern coin market is.

 

According to the same logic, all US proof coins going back to the early 1800s, and commemorative coins going back to 1892 are also gimmickry. In effect you're implying it's all gimmickry except what you collect, and everybody should be collecting the same things as you.

 

And what's wrong with having a coin collection consisting of coins with bullion value? What's wrong with having it both ways, a coin collection hopefully including at least some low mintage attractive modern rarities which are in great demand, and also at the same time coins with a precious metal basis, precious metals that in themselves are considered money?

 

I don't think he is criticizing anyone for collecting these materials, but rather he is attempting to make a valid point considering bullion value and the likely decline. The gold market and silver market is the highest that it has been for several years, and if historical indicators hold true, the coins' value will likely decrease. With a lot of the coins listed, their value is heavily dependent on the spot price (with some exceptions). If I was going to collect modern coins, I would collect the platinum coins. Platinum is at record lows, and I think some of these coins are legitimately scarce.

 

In short, I see nothing wrong with Jason's comment. Collect what you like, but you are being naive if you don't consider all potential pricing factors. Finally, I think you are being optimistic about the demand and the pricing history on moderns overall suggest that this area of the market may be more thinly capitalized than other areas. There might be some exceptions, but this comment is referenced to the larger market in general. I would rank some common date classic coins as similarly poor investments. And before anyone asks, I will state for the record that I don't recommend investing in coins generally. I buy them primarily for enjoyment (while being cognizant of the pricing/market implications).

[John Maben]

I for one am impressed to see this much activity in the registry for a set that was only made available for inclusion just over one week ago.

 

http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/public_sets.aspx?CategoryID=155&SetTypeID=3682&sets=all

 

John

[KeyMan64]

Some popular Modern "COINS" 1965-Present for future consideration maybe?

1969-S DDO Cent

1972 DDO Cent

1983 DDR Cent

1995 DDO Cent

1971, No S Proof Nickel

Maybe 2004 Peace Medal Nickel or 2005 American Bison Nickel?

1982 No Mintmark Dime

1996W Dime

1776-1976S Silver Clad Quarter

Maybe the first STATE QUARTER that rejuvenated Coin Collecting for So Many?...so maybe go with the 1999S Delaware Silver Proof

1970D Half Dollar only issued in Mint Sets

1998S Silver Matte Finish Proof Half Dollar

Pick an Eisenhower Dollar, maybe a silver one or not...

2000P, Goodacre Presentation Finish Dollar

Maybe the Cherrios Dollar

 

Based on the title, I would have expected at least a couple of these to make the list of 50. I'm not a modern collector so I might be way off to expect a lot of these in the list...but a couple FOR SURE!

[coinman_23885]

Some popular Modern "COINS" 1965-Present for future consideration maybe?

1969-S DDO Cent

1972 DDO Cent

1983 DDR Cent

1995 DDO Cent

1971, No S Proof Nickel

Maybe 2004 Peace Medal Nickel or 2005 American Bison Nickel?

1982 No Mintmark Dime

1996W Dime

1776-1976S Silver Clad Quarter

Maybe the first STATE QUARTER that rejuvenated Coin Collecting for So Many?...so maybe go with the 1999S Delaware Silver Proof

1970D Half Dollar only issued in Mint Sets

1998S Silver Matte Finish Proof Half Dollar

Pick an Eisenhower Dollar, maybe a silver one or not...

2000P, Goodacre Presentation Finish Dollar

Maybe the Cherrios Dollar

 

Based on the title, I would have expected at least a couple of these to make the list of 50. I'm not a modern collector so I might be way off to expect a lot of these in the list...but a couple FOR SURE!

 

+1

[brg5658]

I for one am impressed to see this much activity in the registry for a set that was only made available for inclusion just over one week ago.

 

http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/public_sets.aspx?CategoryID=155&SetTypeID=3682&sets=all

 

John

 

 

If you build it, they will come....

[19Lyds]

I for one am impressed to see this much activity in the registry for a set that was only made available for inclusion just over one week ago.

 

http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/public_sets.aspx?CategoryID=155&SetTypeID=3682&sets=all

 

John

This means nothing other than the fact that Registy Sets are popular with folks wanting in on the ground floor.

 

If Registry Sets were an indicator of coin popularity then the Eisenhower Dollar would be the most Popular Dollar Coin ever made since the number of registered IKE sets ATS outnumbers any other Dollar coin.

 

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=783522&highlight_key=y&keyword1=most%20popular

[ericj96-migration]

The comment has been made more than once that the price of gold and silver falling are a bad thing for moderns struck on precious metals. This is not so simple.

For one thing key date moderns have double demand curves. If the cost of the metal the set is struck on falls then the sets common dates get cheaper and this encourages collectors to work on it so the rare issues see increased demand and have the tendency to resist downward drift.

 

This is the reverse of the metals and key date premium cycle described on pages 73-77 in the first book.

[cladking]

The comment has been made more than once that the price of gold and silver falling are a bad thing for moderns struck on precious metals. This is not so simple.

For one thing key date moderns have double demand curves. If the cost of the metal the set is struck on falls then the sets common dates get cheaper and this encourages collectors to work on it so the rare issues see increased demand and have the tendency to resist downward drift.

 

This is the reverse of the metals and key date premium cycle described on pages 73-77 in the first book.

 

The only thing that would get hurt if precious metals continue their downtrend would be things that were bid up with profits from precious metals and things that were subject to the "wealth effect" on precious metals buyers. This second thing would hurt modern precious metal coins to some degree if the short term decline continues. A lot of coins are being bought with the profits from bullion but I'd guess very little of this is going into modern precious metal coins with significant premiums. Some is going into other moderns in high grade and a lot more is going into classics in high grade. These coins would suffer the most if metals drop.

 

But modern precious metal, modern scarcities, foreign modern, and most classic US coins will be mostly unaffected by a drop in metals most likely. What gets the money has always been the most popular coins and few moderns are on this list.

 

It's probably all moot anyway since significant declines in the metals from the current levels are improbable.

[ericj96-migration]

Check out the first post again guys. John and I have posted a 1200 word article that some of you may enjoy. A close version of it may show up other places soon. ;-)

[brg5658]

I am now thoroughly convinced of this as a marketing tool.

 

http://moderncoinmart.com/cart1/home.php?cat=286

 

 

[physics-fan3.14]

I am now thoroughly convinced of this as a marketing tool.

 

http://moderncoinmart.com/cart1/home.php?cat=286

 

 

There was ever any doubt?

[brg5658]

I am now thoroughly convinced of this as a marketing tool.

 

http://moderncoinmart.com/cart1/home.php?cat=286

 

 

There was ever any doubt?

 

No, but now I at least have concrete evidence of the intent. I suspected from the start the point was to sell labels and clean out inventory -- likely before the imminent continued downward spiral of precious metals. I feel sorry for any new collector who gets duped into this bullion mentality, but to each his/her own.

 

PS -- If you have 7 minutes of your life to give up, click on the link at the top of that page to the YouTube video. It's like the HSN or QVC sales pitches "on a budget".

[delta]

What's the motive for your rehashing the same cynical derogatory comments about this, after your analysis has already been effectively answered above by the authors? The authors are not claiming to be disinterested parties, they're openly involved in the business, so what? And what's wrong with someone combining their coin collecting with the built-in added value of the bullion from precious metals? Isn't that how a lot of collectors get started to begin with? Isn't that one of the greatest arguments in favor of collecting coins, versus say baseball cards? What's wrong with trying to acquire examples of individual coins in shortest supply, coins that have the most potential for future appreciation, and that can still be obtained relatively reasonably compared with much older coins? Did you ever see the thread ATS started by Eric Jordan in 2008 with over 10,000 posts concerning this very subject?

 

As for your confident pronouncement about the downward fate of precious metal values, thanks for sharing your expert knowledge and insightful advice, are you putting your money where your mouth is, and shorting them? Are you recommending people dump bullion and get into greenbacks instead? Or should numismatists instead try getting into classic coin series, already fully priced, and if modern coins, they should seek out those made from non-precious metals, and ignore mintage figures when doing so?

 

 

I am now thoroughly convinced of this as a marketing tool.http://moderncoinmart.com/cart1/home.php?at=286

There was ever any doubt?

No, but now I at least have concrete evidence of the intent. I suspected from the start the point was to sell labels and clean out inventory -- likely before the imminent continued downward spiral of precious metals. I feel sorry for any new collector who gets duped into this bullion mentality, but to each his/her own.PS -- If you have 7 minutes of your life to give up, click on the link at the top of that page to the YouTube video. It's like the HSN or QVC sales pitches "on a budget".

[brg5658]

What's the motive for your rehashing the same cynical derogatory comments about this, after your analysis has already been effectively answered above by the authors? The authors are not claiming to be disinterested parties, they're openly involved in the business, so what? And what's wrong with someone combining their coin collecting with the built-in added value of the bullion from precious metals? Isn't that how a lot of collectors get started to begin with? Isn't that one of the greatest arguments in favor of collecting coins, versus say baseball cards? What's wrong with trying to acquire examples of individual coins in shortest supply, coins that have the most potential for future appreciation, and that can still be obtained relatively reasonably compared with much older coins? Did you ever see the thread ATS started by Eric Jordan in 2008 with over 10,000 posts concerning this very subject?

 

As for your confident pronouncement about the downward fate of precious metal values, thanks for sharing your expert knowledge and insightful advice, are you putting your money where your mouth is, and shorting them? Are you recommending people dump bullion and get into greenbacks instead? Or should numismatists instead try getting into classic coin series, already fully priced, and if modern coins, they should seek out those made from non-precious metals, and ignore mintage figures when doing so?

 

Delta, collect whatever you want, I don't really care. I just don't think this artificial list of bullion pieces is in anyway adding knowledge or anything novel to the hobby. I am just warning people of following the advice of people who may have knowledge but also have a lot of bias and personal gain if people listen to them. This is in my opinion no better than the quacks peddling their goods to people on late night home shopping networks.

 

I don't make any suggestions or give any financial advice about what people should do with their bullion. I honestly don't care what they do, and I don't have any interest either way. I am not in this hobby to make money. If you are then that's your choice and you will have different goals than me. Enjoy the hobby however you'd like but I will never and would never recommend to someone to get into the hobby using this list of "coins".

 

 

 

[delta]

Hi brg5658, Thanks for replying, even though I already realized you didn't care what I collected.

 

Since you've advised the forum readers about the inevitable downward spiral of precious metal values, are you projecting it will go down to where it was not that long ago, gold below $300, and silver below $5? For me, I hope it does fluctuate downwards so I can buy some relatively cheaply, but hardly anyone else except you projects a long term decrease, especially as measured in terms of the fiat money we are spending today.

 

This new book we're discussing is not really aimed at someone who is casually making a collection of Jefferson nickels from ordinary circulation. The book was not primarily intended for experienced numismatists who have carefully studied various series of coins, coupled with long experience in viewing them, and already have a given focus. It seems to me the main audience is for the potentially million people who are aware there is such a thing as coin collecting, and rare coins, and precious metals, and who can afford some of them, but can't wait for and don't have years for study, experimentation and experience, and who also want to buy things they can eventually leave to their heirs which will retain value, and possibly even increase in value, as part of a diversity of things they own, to help preserve whatever wealth they have. This book is for them, not for you, so your negativity is entirely unnecessary and woefully misplaced.

 

As for your comment the book was motivated so the authors could clear out surplus inventory, would you kindly provide some support for that accusation, or perhaps retract it apologetically? Also, comparing the authors to quacks, and warning people against them is pretty strong stuff, it sounds to me like slander. As for your own credibility, what about the snooty sounding statement you made here last May 14th declaring "This will be my last post in this thread."?

 

Yes, the list of 50 in the book is an artificial list. All lists of coins are artificial lists. What of it?

 

Finally, as has been explained several times, although you haven't gotten it yet (hopefully your reading comprehension will improve in the future), that just because a coin has bullion value doesn't automatically reduce it to the status of bullion. For your information, bullion is something that sells fairly close to the going rate of spot, typically with a small premium. If certain coins made from precious metals are changing hands consistently for double, triple, or more than the current price of spot, their prices are numismatic, not bullion.

 

Delta, collect whatever you want, I don't really care. I just don't think this artificial list of bullion pieces is in anyway adding knowledge or anything novel to the hobby. I am just warning people of following the advice of people who may have knowledge but also have a lot of bias and personal gain if people listen to them. This is in my opinion no better than the quacks peddling their goods to people on late night home shopping networks.

 

I don't make any suggestions or give any financial advice about what people should do with their bullion. I honestly don't care what they do, and I don't have any interest either way. I am not in this hobby to make money. If you are then that's your choice and you will have different goals than me. Enjoy the hobby however you'd like but I will never and would never recommend to someone to get into the hobby using this list of "coins".

 

 

[coinman_23885]

For your information, bullion is something that sells fairly close to the going rate of spot, typically with a small premium. If certain coins made from precious metals are changing hands consistently for double, triple, or more than the current price of spot, their prices are numismatic, not bullion.

 

And therein lies the problem. On what evidence or information do you rely on to suggest that the coins have a numismatic premium (and what evidence suggests that this premium is long term and not fleeting)? There are plenty of coins that are genuinely scarce (i.e. low mintages), but there is not significant enough demand at prices above melt prices. For example, look at many high grade European gold coins from the late 19th and early 20th centuries and you'll see what I am talking about. Long term, recent bullion related, mint sets, proof sets, commemorative coins, etc., have done often performed poorly (with some exceptions). Usually the coins will experience a period of hype and the prices will rise above bullion; however, this trend usually reverses itself in 3-5 years. Are there exceptions? Most likely, but I would be willing to venture that in 5-10 years, most of the pieces will be closely following the bullion market. You can choose to ignore history or selectively cite a few outliers if you like, but do so to your own detriment and don't attempt to condescend those who are attempting to make arguments (which may ultimately prove to be wrong), but that have an empirical/ logical basis.

 

P.S. With regards to your comments about the precious metal/bullion market, I would also challenge you to review the empirical data cited to support your assumptions. Much, not all, of the higher prices in bullion is the result of current geopolitical tensions and the economic crisis. This in turn has drive speculation. Gold/silver/platinum may eventually go up, but I wouldn't make the implicit assumption that you do suggesting that bullion will definitely appreciate. I think there is a good chance that bullion values will retreat a bit long term, especially if the world markets stabilize.

[delta]

Yes, those are all useful points, there are no certainties in any investments retaining value, and in the final analysis (as writers say too often), nothing we can do with our money is fully safe, whether it's to merely maintain its value, let alone appreciate. We are confronted with measuring relative risks. And yes, I can easily envision a possible long term decline in the value of precious metals, as you described, but not realistically if we are comparing it with just the US dollar, or any particular fiat currency.

 

In assessing risk for value, in my opinion there is a greater risk of loss of current value for classic coinage in general, than precious-metal-based moderns, because of the nearly perfect forgeries being produced, forgeries which can be expected to continue improving. What's your take on that?

 

 

And therein lies the problem. On what evidence or information do you rely on to suggest that the coins have a numismatic premium (and what evidence suggests that this premium is long term and not fleeting)? There are plenty of coins that are genuinely scarce (i.e. low mintages), but there is not significant enough demand at prices above melt prices. For example, look at many high grade European gold coins from the late 19th and early 20th centuries and you'll see what I am talking about. Long term, recent bullion related, mint sets, proof sets, commemorative coins, etc., have done often performed poorly (with some exceptions). Usually the coins will experience a period of hype and the prices will rise above bullion; however, this trend usually reverses itself in 3-5 years. Are there exceptions? Most likely, but I would be willing to venture that in 5-10 years, most of the pieces will be closely following the bullion market. You can choose to ignore history or selectively cite a few outliers if you like, but do so to your own detriment and don't attempt to condescend those who are attempting to make arguments (which may ultimately prove to be wrong), but that have an empirical/ logical basis.

 

P.S. With regards to your comments about the precious metal/bullion market, I would also challenge you to review the empirical data cited to support your assumptions. Much, not all, of the higher prices in bullion is the result of current geopolitical tensions and the economic crisis. This in turn has drive speculation. Gold/silver/platinum may eventually go up, but I wouldn't make the implicit assumption that you do suggesting that bullion will definitely appreciate. I think there is a good chance that bullion values will retreat a bit long term, especially if the world markets stabilize.

[DirtyGoldMan]

No, but now I at least have concrete evidence of the intent. I suspected from the start the point was to sell labels and clean out inventory...

 

I do not believe that this is the case. Rather, the authors are engaged in a "promotion", and this was quite obvious to me from the OP of this thread. Promotions are very common in the coin biz (classic and modern segments) and are often accompanied by publishing a book, special labels, and or special sales or auctions. Some are successful for the dealer; others are not, and there is some risk in doing these. Promotions are often not the best way for collectors to get into a new collecting theme, but they do provide a great opportunity for collectors who already hold what is being promoted to sell into the promotion.

[John Maben]

Thanks Delta for saying many of the things Eric and I already said and more all of which in a straight forward manner.

 

I've held back until now but here we go... there a few that have posted here that are absolutely the rudest closed minded people I have ever encountered on boards, anywhere. The vast majority of negative posts have come from a very few and from one in particular.

 

When Eric started this thread we expected something great. We didn't want the ATS thread to be the only place for modern collectors to go to share insight and useful information. It's off to a crappy start, but we haven't lost hope yet.

 

Dirty Gold Man- I can see why you think it's a "promotion" but it isn't. We didn't need to spend 6 months to come up with a promotion we could have did it 6 days.

 

Yes, I am selling these coins on my website. So what? I was selling them long before the book, just without the label. If it was all self interest I'd have loaded the boat and have them all in stock. We have no more in stock now then we did before work began on the book.

 

I am REALLY surprised at the reaction from a FEW here. I am certain that the crowd ATS would have been different but we respected the PCGS forum and have not talked much at all about it there since the book is heavily NGC slanted. I noticed this on another forum today and while it focuses more on the video, the reaction is quite different:

 

http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=119161&whichpage=1

 

For those that did not see the Q&A with Louis Golino, you can find that here:

 

http://www.coinweek.com/featured-news/top-50-most-popular-modern-coins-a-conversation-with-john-maben/

 

Look, I understand that everyone isn't going to like our picks or the book but the uninformed negative narrow minded views of some here is really disappointing.

 

The top 100 book is a set that is nearly impossible to complete on any budget. How does that stimulate collecting? The Top 50 set is within reach for most and well within reach for some.

 

It was not intended to be an encyclopedia for all modern coins and it was not designed to allow someone on a very low budget to assemble the set, but compared to building a great set of classics, the Top 50 is a very affordable collection of great modern coins.

 

John

[coinman_23885]

In assessing risk for value, in my opinion there is a greater risk of loss of current value for classic coinage in general, than precious-metal-based moderns, because of the nearly perfect forgeries being produced, forgeries which can be expected to continue improving. What's your take on that?

 

Forgeries are a problem for both classic and modern coins (I recall an article from PCGS a couple of years ago concerning counterfeit U.S. platinum coins recently that were submitted to PCGS from China). As such, I wouldn't say that classic coins are a poorer investment for this reason.

 

With this said, I'm not saying that the classic coins are not without their faults either. There are some series that have stayed stagnant for years and with some exceptions, they similarly represent poor investments. Look at generic low to mid uncirculated classic commemorative coins for instance. The prices have either depreciated or remained the same each year - most have not appreciated even to cover inflation. In general, I don't recommend buying coins as investments period (modern or classic). The market is thinly capitalized and is highly volatile, even more so at times than the general market (although historically the prices have increased). Some markets are less capitalized than others. Yes money can be made in buying coins, but in order to do so, you must have a deeper command of the subject matter that goes beyond what most investors are willing to put into it.

 

Finally with regards to modern bullion coins, I do think they are an efficient and economical way of investing in bullion if that is your goal- they come pre-stamped with their fineness that is guaranteed by the United States government. With this said, I don't think there is going to be enough long term demand to push them up above the precious metal price long term. I hope, I am wrong. With this said, I do think it is a poor time to buy these. While the precious metal market could grow exponentially, based on the factors cited in my last post, I think the odds are high that the value will depreciate long term as it tracks the bullion market. If the bullion market retreats enough, then I might consider some of them myself at that time (especially platinum which is at historic lows - I would even consider making an exception for these now even though I generally don't collect modern coins). The current risk is much greater than the likely return in my opinion, so I'll sit these out for now.

 

 

 

[ericj96-migration]

“No, but now I at least have concrete evidence of the intent. “

 

Answer:

Well welcome back BRG its good to see the quality of your comments has improved over your absence. I am glad you have concrete evidence of the intent... Just to be clear all the way back to writing my first book on moderns 2 years ago. My intent has been to point out that:

 

1. The classics as an asset class have matured and are not even keeping pace with inflation and they have serious demographic problems (“graying”) that even Bowers and Hall have mentioned in various articles over the last few years.

 

2. That moderns as an asset class (especially the keys dates) have been outperforming the metals and most other indexes over the last 15 years and you can be there early if you have an ounce of foresight.

 

3. Moderns US coinage that is stuck on the precious metals place a value floor under the coins thats much tighter than that on classics and they effectively enjoy double demand curves that by nature are protective.

 

Please read over this article and explain my many errors. I am as I am always glad to have others improve the quality of my research.

http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/viewpoint-key-modern-coins-win-profit-race

I will await your errata on the basic concepts that it covers.

 

 

“I suspected from the start the point was to sell labels and clean out inventory.”

 

Answer:

My point was to pick a basket of excellent modern coins and write about each one and in the process help collectors understand the developmental process and behavior of series. There is a series of articles coming in Numismatic News that are very educational and do exactly that. I would suggest you read them but I don’t think there is anything that John or I have to share be it in article or book form that will be useful to you because your level of understanding is so far beyond ours. As far as the 50 coin tag concept goes I like it. If you buy the set of coins and the 2008 proof plats that got honorable mention and give them to the kids they will thank you in 20 years.

 

 

 

“likely before the imminent continued downward spiral of precious metals”

 

Answer:

As far as the possibility of the metals getting soft over the next few years I think you have fair odds of being correct because if you look at the CBOs numbers over the next 10 years numbers they indicate that we may drop back to a annual deficit as a percentage of GDP of “only” about 3-5 percent in 2014-2017. Now of course that does not include interest expense that they did not bother to add in because they are assuming that close to zero bound interest will last forever (some of us have our doubts on this). We have 78 million baby boomers that we owe between 30 and 40 thousand dollars each in annual benefits that is more or less unfunded and they start to really hit us from 2017 on. Enjoy the next 5 years and maybe the soft metals prices you seek.

 

On the other hand to make your pronouncements on the metals with such authority you must be sighting the USA Today front page article that came out last week showing that if you use generally accepted accounting principles to review the Feds financial statements last year the deficit was not a little over a trillion dollars it was well over 5 trillion dollars. BRG that is about 30 percent of GDP and guys like you can keep on kidding yourselves that longer term the dollar is not going to get hit but it will. Maybe the metals will be cheaper in 2015 than they are now and it will represent a buying opportunity if thats the case but there will come a day that consistently irresponsible behavior will have bad consequences. As Delta stated you are welcome to hold most of your wealth in the form of a number on a computer screen if you want to but there are many of us who think having the government divorced from our net worth is going to be good policy between now and 2030.

 

 

 

[rons]

Eric, I appreciate your efforts in this arena. I know there are some folks who have been less than kind but the sharing of your research and comparative analysis of old commems and commems in your book is outstanding and a must read for the moderns collector. The chances of making money on most moderns is slim to none, as testified by a thread I wrote about my experience in selling part of my modern collection. I have and will continue to focus on many of your recommendations from your book and articles. Time will tell if you were a prophet or a snake oil salesman but I am leaning towards the prophet (profit) side myself

Please keep us posted on your progress and insighte into this area. Thanks again

 

Just as a thought, I suspect that if everyone on the board would submit their top 50 coins no list would satisfy everyone. It is the nature of the beast.

[ericj96-migration]

"On what evidence or information do you rely on to suggest that the coins have a numismatic premium (and what evidence suggests that this premium is long term and not fleeting)? "

 

Answer:

All you have to do is look at almost every MS-69 mint state gold ealge issued between 1990 and 1995 for your answer. The 1995W silver eagle, most of the $5 gold mint state commems with sub 10,000 mintages, all the W mint marked gold eagles, all the mint state mint marked buffalos, all of the sub 4500 mintage platinum eagles I could go on but the best thing to do since I have already more or less covered this with Mr Harris in a public forum in Numismatic News is read. http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/viewpoint-key-modern-coins-win-profit-race

 

 

"There are plenty of coins that are genuinely scarce (i.e. low mintages), but there is not significant enough demand at prices above melt prices. For example, look at many high grade European gold coins from the late 19th and early 20th centuries and you'll see what I am talking about. "

 

Answer:

Correct rarity with out a large population base with disposable income is worthless but more importantly foreign coins are more offen than not collected by type not date so a European coin can be rare as Hades but be worth melt because its not rare in a way that counts. Go look at our own rare by date and mint mark $.50 silver commems and you will see the same thing. Thats why I stress over and over to watch out for set structure.

 

"Long term, recent bullion related, mint sets, proof sets, commemorative coins, etc., have done often performed poorly (with some exceptions). Usually the coins will experience a period of hype and the prices will rise above bullion; however, this trend usually reverses itself in 3-5 years. "

 

Answer:

Right we covered in our article the importance of getting in before or after the typical year 1-4 price spike. There is a graph showing this. If people are stupid in any market you can get hurt. http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/viewpoint-key-modern-coins-win-profit-race

 

 

"Most likely, but I would be willing to venture that in 5-10 years, most of the pieces will be closely following the bullion market. "

 

Answer:

I know modern eagles are like gas station bottle caps. Kind of like Pan Pac Slugs in 1920 were just high priced bullion.

 

 

"You can choose to ignore history or selectively cite a few outliers if you like, but do so to your own detriment and don't attempt to condescend those who are attempting to make arguments (which may ultimately prove to be wrong), but that have an empirical/ logical basis."

 

Answer:

Well then since you will not believe my data maybe you should go and index every class of classic and modern coin to constant dollars of the last 30 years and do the same thing to every modern key date and/or complete series and you will not be quite so strong in your statements.

 

 

[DirtyGoldMan]

With all due respect, JM, this book and marketing plan have all of the basic elements of a promotion (from Wikipedia):

 

"Fundamentally, however there are three basic objectives of promotion. These are:[2]

 

To present information to consumers as well as others.

To increase demand.

To differentiate a product."

 

There are different ways to promote a product in different areas of media. Promoters use internet advertisement, special events, endorsements, and newspapers to advertise their product. Many times with the purchase of a product there is an incentive like discounts, free items, or a contest. This is to increase the sales of a given product."

 

The book is being used to present information to consumers and (hopefully) increase demand. It may also differentiate the product from those modern coins that are not Top 50-worthy. The special labels made by NGC will also serve to differentiate the product. Hopefully, between the two and some discussion on internet chat boards and other media venues, market demand and sales will increase. You may say that this not a promotion, but if you polled ten coin dealers, my guess is that nine of ten would consider it to be a promotion. If there is any doubt, to me, the special labels clinch it.

 

There's nothing wrong with promotions in the coin biz. Max Mehl was probably one of the greatest of all coin promoters. Without promotion, we would probably be pulling circulated Zincolns from pocket change, or more likely, collecting something else that was more actively promoted. Perhaps "the well-managed promotion", as we occasionally discuss ATS, has a bit of a bad rap, but to me it is a neutral term describing a marketing plan for a thematic group of coins.

[coinman_23885]

"On what evidence or information do you rely on to suggest that the coins have a numismatic premium (and what evidence suggests that this premium is long term and not fleeting)? "

 

Answer:

All you have to do is look at almost every MS-69 mint state gold ealge issued between 1990 and 1995 for your answer. The 1995W silver eagle, most of the $5 gold mint state commems with sub 10,000 mintages, all the W mint marked gold eagles, all the mint state mint marked buffalos, all of the lower mintage platinume eagles I could go on but the best thing to do since I have already more or less covered this with Mr Harris in a public forum in Numismatic News is read. http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/viewpoint-key-modern-coins-win-profit-race

 

 

What price guide(s) are you relying on? Unless you are using real auction data from several sources over a period of time, I have significant problems with your reliance on price guides. Most of the price guides I have seen are inflated and have not been able to keep up with the volatility in the current market. Moreover, I'm looking at the price guide values (PCGS and Numismedia) for the eagles from this period, and I am not seeing the huge premium that you are referencing. I would love to see the empirical data that you are using as the basis of your analysis for myself absent any interpretation of the data.

 

With regards to the 1995-W Silver Eagle, it is one of the outliers that I was referencing too; however, it also illustrates nicely my point about the liquidity and long term potential of many moderns. The coin was selling for $6750 in PR69 DCAM in May 2006 and now the coin is selling for a bit above the $3300 mark. There are other moderns that once enjoyed large premiums based largely on speculation that have enjoyed a similar fate (ultimate decline). Also if you read my comments, you will see that I am not saying that moderns will absolutely fail; rather, I am stating that there is a lack of long term pricing data that some other coins have. Statistical models are useful, but no model is one hundred percent accurate. The models become more reliable overtime considering additional data (particularly longitudinal data). I would argue that most of your data is short term, and reliance on current data has been skewed by the modern bullion market and speculation arising from, inter alia, the economic crisis, geopolitical tensions, etc. There are many that still speculate that gold will reach $2,000 an ounce for at least a period, and many are buying bullion. The modern coins are a convenient source of bullion. I think it is naive to overlook the role of the precious metal market and speculation in the pricing of these.

 

 

"There are plenty of coins that are genuinely scarce (i.e. low mintages), but there is not significant enough demand at prices above melt prices. For example, look at many high grade European gold coins from the late 19th and early 20th centuries and you'll see what I am talking about. "

 

Answer:

Correct rarity with out a large population base with disposable income is worthless but more importantly foreign coins are more offen than not collected by type not date so a European coin can be rare as Hades but be worth melt because its not rare in a way that counts. Go look at our own rare by date and mint mark $50 silver commems and you will see the same thing. Thats why I stress over and over to watch out for set structure.

 

 

I think the foreign coin comparison is valid here. There the market is thinly capitalized among the collector base (i.e. not bullion investors) and the demand is not enough to push the coins significantly above melt in the long term. The analogy holds for modern bullion coins. Moreover, I don't think there are many coin collectors that have complete date, mint mark, and variety sets of modern gold and platinum bullion coins as you would suggest. But who knows, your book might drive enough speculation to cause the coins to spike in the short term.

 

 

"Long term, recent bullion related, mint sets, proof sets, commemorative coins, etc., have done often performed poorly (with some exceptions). Usually the coins will experience a period of hype and the prices will rise above bullion; however, this trend usually reverses itself in 3-5 years. "

 

Answer:

Right we covered in our article the importance of getting in before or after the typical year 1-4 price spike. There is a graph showing this. If people are stupid in any market you can get hurt. http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/viewpoint-key-modern-coins-win-profit-race

 

 

I'm glad that we agree at least on this point. Collect what you like, but if you ignore the potential implications of the precious metal market, then I would argue that the odds of losing your money are much greater.

 

"Most likely, but I would be willing to venture that in 5-10 years, most of the pieces will be closely following the bullion market. "

 

Answer:

I know modern eagles are like gas station bottle caps. Kind of like Pan Pac Slugs in 1920 were just high priced bullion.

 

 

Again, I never said that moderns would not appreciate; rather, I say that it is unlikely that the majority of the coins listed will be outperforming bullion by a significant margin. There are outliers and exceptions to everything. The Pan Pacific is clearly among those; however, I think it is naive to speculate that all or a significant majority of these coins will achieve the percentages of the referenced coin. This is an anomaly and analogous to searching for the proverbial needle in a haystack. There is a chance that you may "strike it rich," but there is also a significant downfall. There is a tradeoff between risk and return, like there is with any investment, and I think the risk out weighs the return. Others may opine differently. I'm not telling anyone where to invest their funds; I'm only saying that one should consider all of the relevant factors and long term historical price indicators with moderns.

 

 

 

"You can choose to ignore history or selectively cite a few outliers if you like, but do so to your own detriment and don't attempt to condescend those who are attempting to make arguments (which may ultimately prove to be wrong), but that have an empirical/ logical basis."

 

Answer:

Well then since you will not believe my data maybe you should go and index every class of classic and modern coin to constant dollars of the last 30 years and do the same thing to every modern key date and/or complete series and you will not be quite so strong in your statements.

 

 

The classic coins have at least two advantages that I can think of that modern coins do not. First, they have a longer pricing history. As someone with a background in statistics (or at least someone who has consulted with statisticians), surely you can appreciate the importance of having long term pricing data. Models are useful, but they improve with more data over longer periods of time. The pricing data is highly subject to outliers that are the result of speculation and the extrinsic factors affecting the precious metal market cited in my responses above.

 

Second of all, whether it is fair or not, there is a stigma among most collectors with modern coins. The collector base for many moderns consists of bullion speculators and the number of total long term collectors, at least historically, has been much lower. If you have empirical data on this, I would love to see it. I would also venture to say that most people buying these items are not going to be holding them for 30-50 years (like collectors would), but for much shorter periods of time. Many are looking to flip the coins quickly as the bullion market increases in value (or at least that's the assumption).

 

Finally with regards to the proposed analysis, I do not question that many of the classic series have similarly underperformed, and I alluded to one series that I would argue is similarly a poor investment. There are surely others, and I don't question this. If you reread my comment, you will see that I stated that I don't recommend collecting coins period (modern or classic) because the market is thinly capitalized. I collect for pleasure, and encourage others to do the same; however, it is naive to ignore the market implications. While I have glanced at some of your data, and I like your analyses; however, I think there are other historical indicators that are not quantifiable or that have not been considered (i.e. the pricing of moderns generally) that are pertinent. Also, see my comments above about statistical models and reliability long term with increasing data. I think these are particularly relevant.

[coinman_23885]

The comment has been made more than once that the price of gold and silver falling are a bad thing for moderns struck on precious metals. This is not so simple.

For one thing key date moderns have double demand curves. If the cost of the metal the set is struck on falls then the sets common dates get cheaper and this encourages collectors to work on it so the rare issues see increased demand and have the tendency to resist downward drift.

 

I have problems with your concept of a double demand curve. I would argue that most of those collecting precious metal modern coins are doing so in order to invest in the larger bullion market; thus, I see a single demand curve. Notwithstanding this consideration, even if you are 100% correct that a double demand curve exists, I challenge your unexplained assumption that there will be a large increase in demand long term and even if there is a demand, I challenge your assumption that the market equilibrium (and stable prices) would be any where near present day levels. The putative double demand curve might save you some, but if the bullion market falls rapidly, the chances are pretty high that you are going to take a severe financial beating.

 

This is my problem with your entire argument: You seem to base assumptions on assumptions without adequately backing up the predicate assumption in my opinion. In many ways, it reminds me of the false assumptions that were partially responsible for breaking the housing bubble and the current economic downturn.

 

And for the record, I am not knocking modern coins. I admitted myself that I had contemplated purchasing some platinum which is relatively low at the moment. The precious metal market would be a significant factor if and when I should chose to make such a financial commitment.

[mumu]

I agree that the frenzy in "key date bullion" is fuled by the gold bubble. When gold is back at 400$ these key dates will be just bullion.

[John Maben]

With all due respect, JM, this book and marketing plan have all of the basic elements of a promotion (from Wikipedia):

 

"Fundamentally, however there are three basic objectives of promotion. These are:[2]

 

To present information to consumers as well as others.

To increase demand.

To differentiate a product."

 

There are different ways to promote a product in different areas of media. Promoters use internet advertisement, special events, endorsements, and newspapers to advertise their product. Many times with the purchase of a product there is an incentive like discounts, free items, or a contest. This is to increase the sales of a given product."

 

The book is being used to present information to consumers and (hopefully) increase demand. It may also differentiate the product from those modern coins that are not Top 50-worthy. The special labels made by NGC will also serve to differentiate the product. Hopefully, between the two and some discussion on internet chat boards and other media venues, market demand and sales will increase. You may say that this not a promotion, but if you polled ten coin dealers, my guess is that nine of ten would consider it to be a promotion. If there is any doubt, to me, the special labels clinch it.

 

There's nothing wrong with promotions in the coin biz. Max Mehl was probably one of the greatest of all coin promoters. Without promotion, we would probably be pulling circulated Zincolns from pocket change, or more likely, collecting something else that was more actively promoted. Perhaps "the well-managed promotion", as we occasionally discuss ATS, has a bit of a bad rap, but to me it is a neutral term describing a marketing plan for a thematic group of coins.

 

I get it. Where we differ is that I believe all we have done here to "promote" these coins and the book is to use marketing techniques as any business does that sells or offers services. In "dealer land" (forget wikipedia) the word promotion is something usually linked to telemarketers and involves choosing items, buying them up in large quantity, and then attempting to sell them at higher prices based on the low availability that was created by the promotion itself.

 

 

Besides the fact that we haven't called a single person telling them what a great deal these are and urging them to buy, our strategy would make a horrible coin promo for one BIG reason. You can't get the majority of these coins easily! I have MAYBE 1/3 in stock. It took about 5 months to assemble a single set of 70's which will be used for display purposes and that was with all of the resources available to me that most do not have access to....

 

They are definitely obtainable, but not all readily available by any stretch.

 

Like I said, I get your assertion but in in the real coin world this one would make a poor "promotion". In classic coins one could to a promotion with 1883 no cents nickels, 1913 type one nickels, etc in moderns, lower mintage proof gold eagles, silver eagle sets in 69, etc.

 

John

 

[John Maben]

"The collector base for many moderns consists of bullion speculators and the number of total long term collectors, at least historically, has been much lower. If you have empirical data on this, I would love to see it. I would also venture to say that most people buying these items are not going to be holding them for 30-50 years (like collectors would), but for much shorter periods of time. Many are looking to flip the coins quickly as the bullion market increases in value (or at least that's the assumption)."

 

I estimate that less than 20% of my customers are "bullion speculators". Those customers buy primarily from bullion dealers. At this time, though it may soon change, we are not bullion dealers.

 

I think you need to look no further than the U.S. Mint itself to see that the largest collector base in the world is in fact in modern coins. As for longevity, I don't know what their retention rate is but am certain it's impressive with many buying year after year.

 

As for holding times, I don't think it's true that the horizon for classic buyers is longer than for moderns. Bullion is a different story. The best of today's moderns are being bought and held with no set holding period.

 

John

 

[cladking]

The chances of making money on most moderns is slim to none, as testified by a thread I wrote about my experience in selling part of my modern collection.

 

I suppose I can't really argue this point since this is and always has been the nature of most all collectibles of all types. The collectibles that soar in value are the ones you just can't find even if you knew advance exactly what they are.

 

But I believe your statement tends to be less true in moderns than most all collectibles fields. Of course you have to throw out F (cull) 1972 quarters and all non-collectible moderns to make them a rising asset. The one trick to making money in any collectible is to buy them before everyone else. This is much easier said than done since it's impossible to know in advance what everyone will desire. Almost all the coins increasing the fastest are moderns and this fact alone can "lift all boats" since competition for rare coins doesn't make them easier to find and can spill over into other moderns. Anything that helps one modern can help them all.

 

If you look at all the characteristics of the modern precious metal coins there is a great deal to like. Many people insist their coins have precious metals and few moderns do other than the eagles and commems unless you buy foreign coins which tend to be anethema to many collectors.

 

Yogi Bera might have said something like the future is the one thing that's impossible to predict but if we try to predict the present we'll see a lot of beautiful coins and a growing demand. What's not to love?