GoldFinger1969

Good posts, Dan....and welcome to these Forums.

Oh I don't doubt that.....it's just a question of HOW BIG is it relative to the visible, certified, public stuff we see ? Is it a niche of 1-5% ? 10%, a noticeable amount ? Or a hidden black market size of 20-35% or the like ? I have no idea.

But if there are so many high-end and trophy coins that are still raw....how come we never see them trade or change hands ? I think the Bass Proof Liberty Double Eagle is the only one that really sticks out in recent years. I admit I don't track this closely, but who expects to maximize price nowadays without a TPG holder ?

Does CAC maintain a registry of previously submitted coins to CAC; the bar codes for PCGS and NGC ?

Now I'm not surprised at that, learning they have outside investors to please. Thanks for the update.

The Big Game Hunters put their trophy coins largely in PCGS for domestic, foreign/world in NGC.

Can you give us an idea of the specifics of the coin TYPES and the coin NUMBERS ? Just because you are seeing hundreds or even thousands of raw coins for a series type doesn't mean it will make a dent in a population census that are millions or tens of millions (Saints and Morgans, to use 2 examples). I don't doubt that you have found a nice niche that suits your needs. But as much as I would WANT TO BELIEVE that there lots of quality raw Mint State-quality or high AU-quality coins that can add to the TPG certifieds....I doubt it. If I'm wrong, and there are tens of thousands of hoards out there hitting the market, I think we would have heard about it.

No, it shouldn't. And no it didn't. Stocks going back to 1926 have had dividends account for about 40% of the total return when one reinvests the dividend. But that encompasses DECADES of high-yields for the DJIA and S&P 500 (the DJIA yielded 10% in 1932). Not until 1956 did the yield on stocks fall below that of bonds -- beause most investors had long memories and remembered stocks going down 85-90% from 1929-32. Stocks have been de-risked because information is more easily accessible on corporate fundamentals. In the 1880's, information on railroad stocks sometimes took hours or days to reach investors. In the 1920's, information still took a few minutes, sometimes an hour or so. Today, information takes seconds or less. Yields are less important to total return compared to growth. And I say that as a dividend and value investor. But you are eliminating a huge change from 1982: the ability to buy back stock. Before then, companies either hoarded cash or paid dividends. Today, they can buy back stock and many companies prefer to do this. You have to compare shareholder yield (dividend yield + stock buyback yield) to have a valid number. In the old days, the DJIA would be a buy at a 6% dividend yield and a sell at a 3% dividend yield. But that encompassed a RISING rate environment from 1946-81. We've had a FALLING rate environment for decades and even with the latest rise we are still historically low in yields. Net-Net: yields are not going back to the old levels on stocks because today's stocks are less-risky, more transparent, and in many respects CHEAPER with more defensive MOATS than their predecessors. Compare today's Tech Titans to the 1970's "Nifty Fifty" stocks. No comparision in terms of market dominance and ability to adapt.

Not anymore. Stock is up 30% in 2 months and the yield is down to 5.6%.

It's not anywhere NEAR the most historically overpriced market in history. Not by a longshot. And the market had a great 2023 despite rates rising a ton in 2022 and 2023. Things are normalizing and while the junkycrap stocks are not likely to thrive in an environment of 3-5% Fed Funds and 2% real rate of returns, they won't do too shabby. Take out the Magnificent Seven and the market is tilted more to the cheap side than overvalued. The S&P 490 is at 17x EPS with the S&P 500 at 19.5x and the Top 10 at 27x EP

Boy, that's a name I haven't heard in years. Used to hear him ALL THE TIME when my dad listened to WINS-1010 radio...."You give us 22 minutes....we'll give you the world." I listened for 22 minutes, but they never gave me the world, alot of money, or even a single MCMVII High Relief coin. Should have sued them for fraud and misrepresentation. I believe he was on CNBC and the old FNN, too. Had that rosebud phrase inscribed on his tombstone if I recall. Miss the guys I grew up with in the 1980's and 1990's.

Typo, CB....I added the word "NO" just now which I must have accidentally deleted while typing and cutting-pasting the long post. My point was.... you were right and I was wrong. Instead I typed it as: I was right and you were wrong (or I didn't believe you)...which wasn't the case. Sorry for the confusion.

Mega-thread on this ATS with some very good commentary no matter what side of the fence you sit on. I highly recommend it. We have some good comments on this on the US WORLD COINS section but they have some ex-graders weighing in there which adds to the debate.

Or former basketball coach Larry "Out Of Town" Brown !! I do believe that JA said that once CAC had gotten most of the classic coins reviewed/stickered, market-making would be their prime focus since they wouldn't be CAC-ing moderns or foreign coins. By now, most of the low-hanging CAC fruit from NGC or PCGS has probably been plucked.

Even if, unlike with U.S. coins, NGC has dominant market share in foreign/world coins and theirs sell at a premium ?

That's unreal. That's unethical, IMO, even if disclosed. I assumed JA and maybe CAC employees owned 100% of CACG. Didn't know outside investors were solicited and accepted. Do we have any idea of how many graders are at CACG and what volume they can do in a year (or now) compared to PCGS/NGC ? Has JA said he wants to be as big as them, or is he happy with a niche service catering to classic coins (not moderns) and the total volume much lower ?

From what I read in the Maurice Rosen and similar interviews, they weren't that plentiful...it was the preponderance of "C" coins in dealer inventories while the "A" and "B" coins in investors/collectors hands that caused the pricing anomaly. The dealers were able to charge "A" and "B" prices for "C" coins -- for a while at least -- and buyers got burned when the market turned despite what the grade on the holder said.

Nothing wrong with making money, so long as legal and not besmirching one's past dealings. At his age, with plenty of $$$ made over the decades, I don't think JA or CACG are doing whatever they hope to do just to make MORE money than they could have just by opening up JA Numismatics or something like that. That would have been much easier to do....less CAPX....less headaches over time....probably better profit margins.

OK, I'll quote Arthur Fonzarelli instead....

Reminds me of something that Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, once said: "If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said."

Are you talking about the creation of CAC in 2008 ?

Yup, at some point when coin prices rise big the pressue to market grade will increase on CACG. Then we'll see if they have diamond hands.

I am sympathetic to what you are saying, Kurt, but if this hobby is not going to be dominated by dealers and savvy, knowledgeable collectors (like yourself and many of the posters here)....then it's going to be the Sharks vs. The Guppies as it was pre-TPG. I'd personally rather debate an occasisionally misgraded slider by the TPGs....or a coin over or undergraded by 1-2 grades...or a questionable Details grade.....then have novices buying coins at prices 5-15 grades too high as was done in the 1960's and 1970's and early-1980's.

I am not into the coins to make a killing in the short or long-term. I don't care if I lose $$$. But for sure, yeah, I don't want to pay full-price for an MS-66 and then find out it'll be priced a few years later as an MS-64 and worth 40% less because the new standard is that the Old 66's are the New 64's. But we DO have formal, in-writing standards from the ANA's 7th Edition, right ? I'm a bit confused as to what happened here. It seems you are saying you got treated OK -- that an overgraded coin's cost was refunded to you -- but then you segue into shenanigans ? Can you or someone explain this for a novice as I was never good with the re-submission thing. Thanks !

Apparently, many coins are coming back as Details-like coins with no grade after getting pretty good grades with additional scoring like "RD" or "RB". Or at least that's the early results from the videos being posted.