GoldFinger1969

Any hard numbers ?

If you believe the anti-central bank spiel....and don't like/trust/understand Bitcoin or crypto....there's only one thing you want.... GOLD.

Any decent trade organization -- dealers, PNG, ANA, etc. -- should have hard numbers on this as I have said numerous times here. I would NOT count someone as a collector who did the State Quarter program and then has the books collecting dust in a closet. There are different levels of baseball, football, and sports fans. But whether they watch EVERY game or just SOME of them, they have to have SOME interest. They may not have season tickets or even goto a game, but they have to at least WATCH a game. They have to have SOME knowledge of who is doing well and who is stinking up the joint. Similarly, a coin collector to me should be someone who is at least ACTIVE in either buying or doing the things necessary to PREPARE for a future purchase: reading a book....posting on a forum ()....attending a show....visiting an LCS....online article research...whatever.

So the spike UP has held ? They didn't roundtrip in price ? I know for gold that the rising price of the metal since 2020 has provided support so I presume silver's rising price has done the same.

Even AU-condition coins from "The Fab Five" -- 1929-1932 Saints -- would be a game changer if we even got a few dozen of each. If QDB's bank rep was correct and you could get tens of thousands of DE's/Saints in the 1960's from Swiss banks, then there could be some more hoards of common s and/or worn coins coming over as you state. Maybe mixed in with the occasional numismatic !! However, going on over 60 years since that time, the original owners of the SDBs from the 1930's have certainly passed on, and their heirs should now be getting up there in age unless it was something bequeathed to a future heir or a child (90 years since FDR's gold prohibition). As the Fairmont Hoard shows....even if secrecy is maintained, the drip-drip-drip of any population game-changer will be noticed.

It's almost like you are describing what happened to baseball cards, circa the mid-1960's: cards destroyed....being thrown out....treated shabbily....and then a demand surge for the next few decades

How much of that rise is a result in the price of silver rising -- that sets the floor for some of these coins ? I do agree with you on the low-hanging fruit being bid up, no doubt. The people with stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 were buying lower-priced stuff in lower grades that they could afford, i.e, large denomination bills in medium grade, silver coins as opposed to gold.

Numbers ?

My understanding was that we saw lots of lower-priced "trophy collectibles" like some coins, currency, etc.....all get bid up but not to crazy levels like sports cards, NFTs, etc. I thought they had held that pricing and maybe moved higher. Do you have some hard numbers for certain Morgans round-tripping on price ?

There are some nice LH DE hoards, yes. Numerically, I'm not sure they outnumber the Saint hoards, would be a good number crunching debate. You have the 1983 El Salvardor/MTB Hoard which was mostly Saints and the WF NM Hoard really boosting the Saint totals. Baltimore, Saddle Ridge, Samaszko, Champagne, Hackney, and even Fairmont are not enough to make it up, I am pretty sure. Even the Fairmont is more noticeable for the drip-drip-drip than the huge surge in commons. Of course, more small hoards heavy in LH DEs can swing the numbers over time. Have to see what is found and what comes out of collections, estates, SDBs, and maybe even self-storage units.

There are some legitimate Saint/DE hoards over the years. They DO have an interesting provenance and I don't mind paying up for them all else equal (the SSCA's are different since they have to be restored due to water damage). I personally find hoards fascinating. Some of the smaller ones owned by recluses or found overseas (i.e., the Hackney Hoard) are either so infrequent or they never got their label as I haven't seen them to my recollection. Ditto the Samaszko Hoard. I wouldn't bet against the premium dissipation for the WF NM coins to be in part because folks got misled/confused on the "Wells Fargo" provenance and thought it was the origin and not where they changed hands and got stored, especially with the MS-67's. It would have been better if Ron Gillio disclosed the origin of the hoard and maybe there was some nice South or Central American pedigree involving military juntas over the decades. I think the initial selling price might have been LOWER but they would have held their value longer.

Even if they are worth 50x FV, what are we talking about ? We're not talking 3-figure or 4-figure coins even in high-MS grade.

But WHAT IS the market ? Is it millions of kids like in the 1950's ? Or is it tens of thousands ? If the former, you may have a point. If the latter....well, 1 single Ebay seller is able to satisy lots of the hardcore, high-MS collector, Registry-player crowd. If you told me that a few dozen 1927-D Saints were available in plastic-wrapped mint or proof sets...then I would say that the current price needs to come down by a ton. Similarly, with all this potential supply and net demand falling ove the decades, I don't see the potential for rising prices.

I think it was the hype. Same thing happened with the SSCA coins even though gold was $300 an ounce -- the premiums even for restrikes were insane. I wonder how many buyers thought that the "Wells Fargo" moniker referred to where they were found -- not where they were stored in 1996 when the transaction took place !! I mean, if they had done the transaction in a McDonald's they could be the McDonald's No-Motto Hoard !!

I define coin collector as ACTIVE...either buying or LOOKING at coins...or reading, posting, learning about coins in between purchases. I'm going to say about 5 million with maybe half of them under the age of 21. That does NOT include bullion investors who might buy AGEs or Saints which are both coins and bullion.

Even if true, that supply could swamp existing demand.

Then the question becomes: does demand surge for some reason such that the price RISES which is what we normally associate with a "rare" coin ? For that to happen, the supply must be short relative to demand. As some of you have said here, the MCMVII High Relief is not "rare" but on price it does trade as a rare coin even at the AU and low-60's MS levels. That is in part from demand from people who are absolutely NOT coin collectors (they might not own any other coin). The question then becomes: if out of those surviving mint/proof sets ONLY (nothing from regular mintage), how many are collectors seeking them ? It's not the 1950's or 1960's when most kids were collectors. Add in sales by existing holders (mint/proof sets, regular mintage collectors over the decades, etc.) and the question is how many NEW collectors meet that supply and if not, how big is the demographic imbalance ? That's how I see it, if not from a veteran or expert collector perspective, but a simple supply-demand analysis.

Well...the premium at that time was rich and the No Motto Wells Fargo coins were more expensive than non-WF or other common Saints. But with gold at under $400 an ounce, you got bailed out by the gold price rise since then to an extent. Lousy returns, yes, but the coins are worth more in MS-65, but flattish in MS-66. The MS-67 buyers got hosed.

Goldman Sachs earlier today hiked its year-end gold price target to $2700 from $2300, noting that momentum and retail haven't yet piled in. "With Fed cuts still a likely catalyst to soften the ETF headwind later in the year, the right tail risk from the US election cycle and fiscal setting, gold's bullish skew remains clear," Goldman wrote in a note. "Asian retail demand, led by China, has been driven by fear over economic stability and currency depreciation, particularly tied in China to the property sector," GS writes.

Goldman Sachs ups year-end price target for gold to $2,700. If that happens, we'll obviously have to base and retrench for a while as that is a very large move for gold. But this thread's prediction might be a bit too conservative ($3,000 by 2030) though my longer-term $5,000 by 2035 would be more likely. Again...this is all supply and demand, folks. The stars are aligning for gold like they were in the 1970's. Even the 2000's rise was more a case of gold just being dirt cheap after basing for 20 years than both supply & demand moving into positive positions. Gold wasn't as cheap when this move started because we didn't have a 20-year basing though we did have a near-50% decline again.

$2,424 up $50 today on COMEX. There is just a persistent bid underneath the metal. It goes up regardless of what happens to stocks, bonds, or Fed talk. Premiums in Singapore relative to 2011 and 2012 are 1-2% and not 7-8% -- an indication this is not panic buying. Also, American Eagle coin sales are under 20,000 a month as opposed to 75,000 a month at past peaks.

Also, if it is still being minted today. Nickels and Quarters are modern; Double Eagles and Silver/Ike Dollars are not.

BTW, the average price paid per coin was approximately $755. This was about double the average market price for gold for 1996, so the premium paid was about 100% by Gillio's buyers.

The FACE VALUE of that estate of coins must have been several hundred thousand dollars....market value anywhere from 3-20x as much, huh ? Hard to believe....you'd never see a 20-year wait on something like that in the NYC area....but I guess Middle America is different.

But their prices AREN'T that high and folks like Zadok are saying they buy hundreds or even THOUSANDS of these coins, solo or in sets, without much difficulty. You don't need too many people collecting in bulk to have lots of supply. If only a few hundred thousand Americans collected a few dozen or so sets, that's alot of potential supply, right ?