• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

GoldFinger1969

Member: Seasoned Veteran
  • Posts

    8,468
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

Everything posted by GoldFinger1969

  1. Well said. I think so many people got fooled by the 1970's 20-fold rise in gold and silver and the huge gains made by gold and silver stocks. It was a once-in-a-lifetime scenario that never repeated. Anybody can leave a bank account or brokerage account to a family relative or friend when they pass on. But a gold coin or small collection...that's something that part of it may be kept and that person will think about you in posterity. It will also stimulate interest in history and numismatics -- to some extent -- as they research the coins.
  2. You make some excellent points: Gold is NOT an investment. If anything, it's a speculation. Buy it as insurance, because you like to collect, something to leave your heirs. NOT to "make money." If a big drop would cause a problem......don't buy. DO NOT use leverage....EVER...but especially on a volatile illiquid asset.
  3. Chart 1 doesn't look like any kind of bubble. Chart 2 shows that gold production is not directly tied to prices, thanks to long FIDs and CAPX decisions. Chart 3 shows that the great producer -- South Africa -- is in decline. Imagine if Saudi Arabia were to show 5% declines in oil production each year. Chart 4 shows gold production back to 1970. It's peaking. What does this all mean ? It means demand is rising every year...and supply is tight....the easiest supply is central bank selling and they aren't doing that anymore, they're buying. This is a prescription for a MASSIVE rise in the gold price -- and I am NOT a gold bug. We saw this once before.....the period up to 1971-74, when the gold price was fixed for decades earlier. That was under the gold exchange standard of Bretton Woods. Now...I don't know if it's closer to 1962 or 1972...but gold is CLEARLY like a beach ball being held under the water line and it's going to rise up. Only question is when. Did you miss out on buying Saints or gold coins at $500/oz 20-25 years ago ? Years from now, they could be saying the same thing about coins in the low-$2,000 range.
  4. Look at how much more buying a fast-growing -- but low income, poor -- country like India is buying today. Look at the long-term buying being absorbed by one country, albeit a large one (the Indian table). It's out-of-date but the figure is now 750-800 tons per year (double the last entry.....25% of annual production today). Now ask yourself....dozens of African countries....dozens of Asian and Central/South American countries....are their little people going to buy Rhodium or Palladium...or something they know for thousands of years......GOLD !!
  5. It's nothing. Check out the move in Bitcoin or crypto over that period. Check out bond spreads. Check out NVDA or SCMI. We're up 5% in a few months. Those assets are up 5% a day 1 or 2 days a week...for months !! Authoritarian despots might fear capital controls -- their countries usually employ them themselves -- but most countries are democracies and this doesn't affect them. The ETF graph above shows that it is NOT institutional buyers driving the move. It is retail buyers, The Little Guys, who are buying gold en masse. They're buying coins, bars, whatever. Maybe some Chinese/Indian early-2024 buying, too (that's ending I believe). No doubt people are reading the 86 page Saint-Gaudens thread on this forum and mopping up common and generic Saints. That's the ticket, as Jon Lovitz' character used to say !!
  6. Is Gold too High to Buy Now? Absolutely NOT !!! That's not to say that it can't go down 5-10% in a few days/weeks...but if the next $1,000 is UP -- and I think we all agree it's more likely to hit $3,100 than $1,000 -- why worry about a few hundred dollars moves here ? Let me be specific and tell you what I would tell my Private Bank clients. Let's say someone wanted 100 ounces of gold. They have the $$$ right now...sold some stock, inheritance, windfall, whatever. I'd have them buy 20 Double Eagles or coins or bars or whatever they wanted TODAY....I'd wait a few weeks and then I'd buy more. If the price is HIGHER....we bought the first 20 low. If it FALLS....we buy the 2nd batch of 20 cheaper than the first batch. I would repeat this using a time interval that was consistent with the client's risk-tolerance. I would assume that with gold he/she wouldn't care if God Forbid we bought them all at an average price of $2,000 and then it fell to $1,500 and they panic and want to sell. I assume this is NOT an investment but insurance and/or stuff they want to collect or show their kids/grandkids. As long as it is $$$ that is not needed if the gold falls in price, you can either buy all-in at once...or spread it out (my choice). The person may also want to invest some TIME researching all the different ways to buy 1 ounce of gold and/or gold coins and then decide they want a little of everything: some SG DEs...Liberty Head DEs....modern AGEs....Kurggerands....Maple Leafs....Buffalos...maybe some Vatican or Mexican coins...etc...etc...etc.
  7. Check out stagnating supply. Remember....the decisions on production were made when gold was rising strongly from 2009-12. Also note that the price has been RISING even as ETF inflows have turned negative. This means it is (1) central bank buying or (2) retail buying. It's Double Eagle buying, folks !!
  8. IS it rapid ? I don't think so. I think central bank or panic buying would have gold up $100 or $150 in a single day. Not a few $10-$25 days. Central Banks are NOT selling, that's the big thing. Then add in "Peak Gold" and declining production, regulatory strangling, and resource nationalization. You have stagnant (new) supply...no big sellers of existing stockpiles...and rising demand that pales in comparision to BitCoin or crypto. If not for BTC/crypto...we'd be at $2,500 at least and MAYBE $3,000 already.
  9. I think you shouldn't "load up" -- but if someone came into some cash I would absolutely buy some gold or gold coins here...if it pulls back, add more. What if gold catches a major bid or a short has to cover and we race to $2,500 ? At least then you have some exposure at this level. If you think the next $1,000 is UP....then unless you want to wait for a decline to $2,800 from $3,000....you should buy some here.
  10. I think both those coins should have been included, JMHO. Rarest regularly-issued coin....coin with the story of the 1933. Both deserving. I just looked at the 100 list.....they have the 2009 UHR there but no other Saint !! No classic MSDs, either. No coins from 1800's...... It's too modern a list. They should have a list for moderns AND classics.
  11. Wow, initially I would have thought 10-15. Then upon further reflection, I realized that alot of the coins from the early-1900's like the MCMVII UHR and HR would be outside the 100 year period. Still, 3 coins is MUCH lower than I would have thought. Guess no special coins from the 1930's onward. They didn't include the 1927-D and 1933 Saints, huh ?
  12. You should see if the French Central Bank has some publications or internal communications on Roosters, French monetary policy, etc. France's role in The Great Depression has gotten alot more attention in the last 30 years. I just ordered GOLDEN FETTERS by Barry Eichengreen. Lots more coverage on gold flows (and maybe gold coins like Roosters ?) between the citizenry and the CBs.
  13. Different publishers, I'll bet. If the 100 Greatest can sell enough books, they'll do a new edition. The Official Red Book folks do a new one every year and they must sell enough new ones each year to make it profitable.
  14. The regular MCMVII HR's were NOT annealed like the UHR's, right Roger ? That and the special dies/polishing distinguished the UHR patterns as proofs. I'm surprised that no MCMVII HR's haven't gotten a "PL" designation. Happy it didn't happen, don't get me wrong...just surprised.
  15. I agree...but you DID give equal time to the other side in your book, Roger...that's what I meant by debate. BTW, I commend you for including that section even though it was clear from the earlie pages in the book that you thought there weren't any MCMVII HR "proofs."
  16. I think Guide Books can be updated even with only new price information....but for the DE book, I think enough has happened that makes a 2nd Edition even more worthwhile. The stories that are new....the additional information on hoards and shipwrecks...the gold price...the certification totals, esp. in the higher grades. I think this is worthy of a new edition (and again, this is the only book that covers ALL DEs year-by-year). I believe it is the only Whitman Official Red Book that hasn't gotten a 2nd edition ?
  17. If you mean the Annual Official Red Book of all coins....it just has some sketchy price estimates for a few grades for all the coins, including the DEs. There is maybe 1/2 page or so talking about the coin series covering the entire mintage over many years -- basically, nothing. The Whitman Red Book on Double Eagles has about 1/2 page on every DE by mint/year....Liberty Head or Saint-Gaudens.....so tons more information. And the pricing for commons for all those years was based on the gold price at the time of publication which was about $400...doing it NOW for $2,000 would be light-years better even if they don't do a complex and detailed price matrix or analysis like Roger did for his book. One Interesting Thing: In the bio for Bowers page, it says that an expanded version of the book with much more detailed historical and numismatic information (sans prices) will be available to professionals, researchers, numismatists, etc. I don't know if anything ever came of that but it sounds like all the stuff Bowers and Whitman cut out but which I think would have been -- and might still be -- of interest to Double Eagle collectors.
  18. I think it was an assay office, right ?
  19. Good thoughts and questions, Mike. I don't have the book so I have to assume there's enough publishing demand that merits a 6th Edition. The advantage of a book like this is it has the favorite coins of lots of different collectors so you increase the demand from collectors of Eagles, Double Eagles, Morgans, Barbers, Lincolns, etc. When were the 4th and 5th editions published ? I'm biased, but I really want to see the Whitman Red Book on Double Eagles get a 2nd Edition -- the first was way back in 2004. This book has information year-by-year on both the Liberty Head DE and Saint-Gaudens DE series. I don't know of another good Liberty Head book (the other Liberty Head DE book by Bowers isn't really an annual review of that year's coins but an annual financial/economic/cultural review). So much has happened in 20 years that the commentary sections and the data/price/certification totals could really use an update. Roger's magnus opus on Saints is spectacular, but at 600+ pages it's alot for a beginner gold or Saints collector to commit too, unfortunately. We die-hards love the book but not sure the casual collector will invest the time in reading it. Unfortunately ! And again, it's only on Saints not Liberty Heads.
  20. I also have a new initiation report on the gold miners and indirectly gold the metal by Jefferies. If anybody wants to see it, since I can't post it here, then PM me your email and I'll shoot it over.
  21. New All-Time Closing High Today: Looks like we will close decisively above $2,100/ounce. Dragged up by BitCoin, for sure. I continue to think we are headed for $3,000 in a few years. If you have a budget for gold coins, grab some now unless you want to do most/all of your buying ALOT higher !
  22. I think he was joking given the debate concerning "proof" MCMVII HR's.